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    Thread: moneygrow's trading journal

    1. #2911
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      Quote Originally Posted by Borneo Scalper View Post
      FOMC is just around the corner. I think we can see it in about 10 hours time. With the rate hike, it will be good for the USD currency. Even if the decision has been priced in, any sell off would just be the most around 100pips and that is not enough for any trend change. I expect some spikes but once the market calm down it will still go along the main trend.
      100 points is more than enough even if you only use small lot size for sell position. If you look on GBP/USD movement today, the current price is around 100 points from lowest Support on D1 chart. It could be after the release of interest rate will be able to reach lowest Support (1.3202) or maybe it will be more. The main trend on GBP/USD is still in bearish condition, although the market will regain calm will still follow the main trend.
      don't use Luck in the trade but it would be better to use Greed
      hoping for something without hard work will not give anything

      dedy hari kurniawan's trading journal

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    3. #2912
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      Quote Originally Posted by chiko View Post
      agree with your analysis, the major trend in Gbp/usd i see still in bearish condition so my plan for this pair is at least wait for the daily time frame to make a valid bearish signal and i can go short in my position, hopefully we all gain the profits we are targeting and always keep our risk low.
      Yea, pretty much keeping it simple and keep our risk low


      Quote Originally Posted by dedy hari kurniawan View Post
      Yup, FOMC in 2 days time and obviously interest rate will rise 0.25% but we do not know for sure if the 2% inflation target could be achieved by this week's rate hike. The dovish statement will make USD weaken even though interest rate goes up so will you keep sell position until the interest rate releases? or you are preparing analysis for any pair other than GBP/USD?
      Even a dovish statement cant change the major trend. The most it will do are spikes, profit taking and just noise.


      Quote Originally Posted by dedy hari kurniawan View Post
      I see, this means you do not care about the interest rate that will be released in 2 days, right? As long as price on #USDX can break Resistance trendline or Support trendline then you will buy USDXXX and sell XXXUSD. What about your current sell position, will you keep it open until it reaches your target? although later on the release of interest rates will occur a lot of high volatility.
      Ive closed some positions last night and earlier today the rest hit TP. Today i will continue to look for more sell opportunity on XXXUSD. Well, maybe GBPUSD only as im too lazy to open too many charts


      Quote Originally Posted by theomilli View Post
      It's crystal clear that you are a strong technical analysts but you can't just neglect fundamentals like that because news release especially of high impact can invalidate techinicals. With your analysis I can see that you are rooting for a stronger dollar, which means you are buying dollar against any other currency. I hope you would be on the right side during the FOMC moment because if will surely take charge of the market when it time comes.
      If we want to talk about fundamentals, you should know overall USD is stronger then GBP. I doubt GBP can be strong not until they sort their Brexit issue.


      Quote Originally Posted by sonibark View Post
      confluence? nice analysis bro, and you are welcome back, yes it seems like a sell, but maybe just for a while, buying from that confluence seems to be the place that interest me the most, but as things stand right now its looking more like a sell, if follow the trend line, today the usd pairs and the pounds pair will be very busy as are going to be experiencing some news release, so i employ us to trade safe
      Yea confluence! Why bother to painstakingly analyze 10 charts when we can do it just from one chart right? Not to say i wont analyze other charts but i pay attention on the important ones.


      Quote Originally Posted by Omoba9ce View Post
      Today will most likely end with a weaker dollar and this trend can continue into the coming weeks. This is because, ever since the rumors of fed hiking rates come June, the Usd has been rallying and this shows that the Fed's decision has been priced in. What this means is that, even though the fed hikes rate, expect to see a contrary movement of the Usd pairs, as there will be Usd sell off as a result of profit taking by huge players who bought the dollar way back.
      Im with Borneo Scalper on this one


      Quote Originally Posted by Borneo Scalper View Post
      FOMC is just around the corner. I think we can see it in about 10 hours time. With the rate hike, it will be good for the USD currency. Even if the decision has been priced in, any sell off would just be the most around 100pips and that is not enough for any trend change. I expect some spikes but once the market calm down it will still go along the main trend.
      Guess for today we just need to be careful of the spikes and profit taking, thats all


      Trade Update 13 June 2018

      Ive closed some of my positions last night manually and entered a few more after the 70 pips spike. Earlier today all my positions hit TP

      In case some of you were wondering what happened last night for GBPUSD to suddenly went up 70 pips, refer the picture below. Now that folks is sentiment analysis.

      Name:  wathappened.png
Views: 78
Size:  39.9 KB


      Now for today im still looking for sell opportunity on GBPUSD. Nearest target would be 1.3309 which i hope will hit soon while furthest would be in the 1.3270 region.

      Regarding the USD news later, im prepared for some spikes to happen so im keeping my lot sizes low to sustain my account during the time. Overall im still selling XXXUSD.
      Name:  GBPUSDH4.png
Views: 77
Size:  51.8 KB

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    5. #2913
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      Quote Originally Posted by Omoba9ce View Post
      Today will most likely end with a weaker dollar and this trend can continue into the coming weeks. This is because, ever since the rumors of fed hiking rates come June, the Usd has been rallying and this shows that the Fed's decision has been priced in. What this means is that, even though the fed hikes rate, expect to see a contrary movement of the Usd pairs, as there will be Usd sell off as a result of profit taking by huge players who bought the dollar way back.
      I get your point and it could be possible because I have seen cases like that before in the market, during the news release the big boys in the market that has been on USD buy would withdraw because of safety and this might give sellers room to take charge for sometime. Iw would be using pending orders and scalping techniques to dissect the news, a buy stop and a sell stop, which ever way it goes, I would reap some profit.

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    7. #2914
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      Quote Originally Posted by dedy hari kurniawan View Post
      100 points is more than enough even if you only use small lot size for sell position. If you look on GBP/USD movement today, the current price is around 100 points from lowest Support on D1 chart. It could be after the release of interest rate will be able to reach lowest Support (1.3202) or maybe it will be more. The main trend on GBP/USD is still in bearish condition, although the market will regain calm will still follow the main trend.
      Yea, the main trend of GBPUSD is bearish because of from the 4hr chart, daily and weekly the RSIs are below 50 which indicates the bearish signal but right now GBPUSD is range bound and it will remain range-bound till the news is released. So in my own opinion, it is not safe for a trader to trade before a major news to avoid problems but if you want to trade before the major news which is the sentiment, you must trade with caution. Few minutes before the news, you should close your trades.
      When the FOMC increases the interest rate, there may be an initial spike downwards but what will determine the direction of the pair is the press conference where the Fed Chair makes a speech. So it is better you just wait after the press conference before you can trade.

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    9. #2915
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      Hard to say which way it will go but just less than 2 hours to go at the moment. Personally, I am short bias. But the price keep edging higher so it's making me confuse (EURUSD and GBPUSD). However, I don't have any open position in any of these 2 pairs. Might take wait and see approach plus this thing will come out around 2-2.30am at my timezone.

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    11. #2916
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      apart from the fact that gbpusd is in bearish mode, the present price level at the high today would most certainly make the FOMC slam the pair down. i would prefer a sell with today's high plus 30 pips as stop loss. will aim for 100 pips.

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    13. #2917
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      Quote Originally Posted by bitcoinrush View Post
      Yea, the main trend of GBPUSD is bearish because of from the 4hr chart, daily and weekly the RSIs are below 50 which indicates the bearish signal but right now GBPUSD is range bound and it will remain range-bound till the news is released. So in my own opinion, it is not safe for a trader to trade before a major news to avoid problems but if you want to trade before the major news which is the sentiment, you must trade with caution. Few minutes before the news, you should close your trades.
      When the FOMC increases the interest rate, there may be an initial spike downwards but what will determine the direction of the pair is the press conference where the Fed Chair makes a speech. So it is better you just wait after the press conference before you can trade.
      Honestly I don't know what to think about the pair (GBP-USD) anymore, when I thought it's heading down immediately it will change course again to upside trend, but looking from the 4hrs time frame perspective I think we May likely experience a bearish trend, but i think we will have to be extremely careful because the pair a capable of surprising us.

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    15. #2918
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      Quote Originally Posted by dedy hari kurniawan View Post
      100 points is more than enough even if you only use small lot size for sell position. If you look on GBP/USD movement today, the current price is around 100 points from lowest Support on D1 chart. It could be after the release of interest rate will be able to reach lowest Support (1.3202) or maybe it will be more. The main trend on GBP/USD is still in bearish condition, although the market will regain calm will still follow the main trend.
      100 pips margin is good but we must have to first determine the trend of the pair so that we will not take the trade on the wrong side. GBP/USD is now consolidating in 100-200 pips range now but if it breaks upside then we can see move of almost 400-500 pips. So as per me it is better to be on buy side with lower lot for some few days if anyone is the long term trader.

      Quote Originally Posted by moneygrows View Post


      Trade Update 13 June 2018

      Ive closed some of my positions last night manually and entered a few more after the 70 pips spike. Earlier today all my positions hit TP

      In case some of you were wondering what happened last night for GBPUSD to suddenly went up 70 pips, refer the picture below. Now that folks is sentiment analysis.

      Attachment 78735

      Twitter is the best platform to increase the volatility of the market. Actually most of the time market gives us knee jerk reaction so most of the small traders get crushed in that move. So it is really unpredictable as we are not able to take decision in the few seconds as we can make good profit or get huge loss from such high volatile move due to the tweets of big leaders

      Quote Originally Posted by Oriakhiebillz View Post
      I get your point and it could be possible because I have seen cases like that before in the market, during the news release the big boys in the market that has been on USD buy would withdraw because of safety and this might give sellers room to take charge for sometime. Iw would be using pending orders and scalping techniques to dissect the news, a buy stop and a sell stop, which ever way it goes, I would reap some profit.
      Major traders do such type of trading as we have seen yesterday after release of FOMC rate decision, dollar got strengthen suddenly and after that slowly sold out and come to the level of pre decision level. so these are the opportunities for the scalpers but it is high risk and you must have to check out the trading conditions with your broker as you may have to close your trade in few seconds.

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    17. #2919
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      hmmm, how the world leaders could influence the market with their tweets! and how fast the big players are able to react on same to profit! we the retail traders have lots of challenges to face in such circumstances. only low lot ttsage could help us.

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    19. #2920
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      Quote Originally Posted by Oriakhiebillz View Post
      I get your point and it could be possible because I have seen cases like that before in the market, during the news release the big boys in the market that has been on USD buy would withdraw because of safety and this might give sellers room to take charge for sometime.
      i would call it profit taking


      Quote Originally Posted by bitcoinrush View Post
      So in my own opinion, it is not safe for a trader to trade before a major news to avoid problems but if you want to trade before the major news which is the sentiment, you must trade with caution. Few minutes before the news, you should close your trades.
      especially if we dont have enough margin


      Quote Originally Posted by kammraz View Post
      Hard to say which way it will go but just less than 2 hours to go at the moment. Personally, I am short bias. But the price keep edging higher so it's making me confuse (EURUSD and GBPUSD).
      pretty much all USD pairs are behaving this way mostly because USD bullishness has been "priced in"


      Quote Originally Posted by samadel View Post
      apart from the fact that gbpusd is in bearish mode, the present price level at the high today would most certainly make the FOMC slam the pair down. i would prefer a sell with today's high plus 30 pips as stop loss. will aim for 100 pips.
      Too bad it didnt reach 100 pips last night. I managed to get out around 60 pips


      Quote Originally Posted by sonibark View Post
      but i think we will have to be extremely careful because the pair a capable of surprising us.
      pretty much all USD pairs are capable of surprise this month


      Quote Originally Posted by nikhil_rrane View Post
      Twitter is the best platform to increase the volatility of the market.
      Twitter is a good platform for early warnings and market directions if we know who to follow


      Quote Originally Posted by forexguy9 View Post
      hmmm, how the world leaders could influence the market with their tweets! and how fast the big players are able to react on same to profit! we the retail traders have lots of challenges to face in such circumstances. only low lot ttsage could help us.
      We the retail trader are just speck of dusts on their golden crown. We cant do anything only follow their direction


      Trade Update 14 June 2018
      So im pretty much still selling GBPUSD even after the FOMC. Been closing and opening more positions whenever price hit certain levels.

      Closed all my sell positions yesterday after the spike down and today i been opening and closing more positions from todays high.

      The 1.3340 region should be watched closely for potential reversal. If it breaks then better chance for the bear to continue dominating the market.

      Name:  GBPUSDH1.png
Views: 59
Size:  41.9 KB

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