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    Thread: balut's trading journal

    1. #1521
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      Quote Originally Posted by balut View Post
      WEEKLY UPDATE #41







      Here's my 41st week update to my 52 week challenge and currently my floating equity is equal to 47% which is the same on last March. Although I made a new high of 71% floating equity during the last week of May. It only means that if my current floating positions go bad then the last 3 months of my trading activity will goes to nothing. This all because to my irrational trades based on monthly setup and I feel disappointed about it.
      Don't be disappointed my friend! There are are many weeks remaining for your target and you can easily do anything in this time. More than 2 months are enough to change anything in this business. I know you are little bit afraid from current open positions due to running losses but if you have strong analysis behind these positions then you will close them in profit or even without any loss. Keep calm and believe on your self. I hope you will do better in these remaining weeks which help you to achieve your target on which you are working from last couple of months.
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    3. #1522
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      TRADE UPDATE:

      Another week again so it means that I have another set of trades and this time I have a weekly trade setup on GBPCAD. I got a buy signal so I bought it even it has a 72 bullish gap. This should have been a perfect weekly setup on my system if not due to wide gap but I have no choice but to do it. Most gap are filled before another breakout appear so I'm expecting a bearish retracement before it go up again.


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    5. #1523
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      Quote Originally Posted by balut View Post
      TRADE UPDATE:

      Another week again so it means that I have another set of trades and this time I have a weekly trade setup on GBPCAD. I got a buy signal so I bought it even it has a 72 bullish gap. This should have been a perfect weekly setup on my system if not due to wide gap but I have no choice but to do it. Most gap are filled before another breakout appear so I'm expecting a bearish retracement before it go up again.

      There was a gap of 50+ pips in all cad pairs as market opened this week and this was largely caused by the effect of the G7 meeting held during the weekend where U.S president Donald Trump threw the G7's effort to show a united front into disarray following a verbal spat with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and this result to the fall of Cad as market opens. Like you said most gaps always cover up which is happening already then it would have been better you waited for it to cover up before opening your buy position. All the same I hope your gbpcad trade ends in profit for you.


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    7. #1524
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      Quote Originally Posted by balut View Post
      TRADE UPDATE:

      Another week again so it means that I have another set of trades and this time I have a weekly trade setup on GBPCAD. I got a buy signal so I bought it even it has a 72 bullish gap. This should have been a perfect weekly setup on my system if not due to wide gap but I have no choice but to do it. Most gap are filled before another breakout appear so I'm expecting a bearish retracement before it go up again.

      Personally, I am not really going to buy GBPCAD at this time until it breaks upwards from where it is right now because it seems the price is trying to range on the four hours chart, but with time we can get a better pricing and be able to execute our trades.

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      Wisdom Is The Ability To Apply Knowledge And Experience To Any Given Situation.
      If you do not take control of your risks then you lose control of your trades


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    9. #1525
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      TRADE UPDATE:

      I have another buy position based on weekly chart and this time it's AUDUSD. This weekly buy setup is a bit tricky because on wednesday the Federal Reserve will likely to hike interest from 1.75% to 2.00% so it means that I'll have to gamble my technical bullish bias against the possible result of this high impact fundamental news. I have no choice but to follow again my trading rules but in case I lose then at least it would only take a little percentage of my account.




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    11. #1526
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      TRADE UPDATE:

      I woke up this morning and saw my AUDUSD buy position has been invalidated so I had no choice but to let it go with a -30 pips loss. I'm a bit relief to exit from that trade because I'm very worried about the Fed interest hike rate that will happen 14 hours from now. I'm not sure what will happen to its price but if it become bullish after the hike rate then I may buy it again.




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    13. #1527
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      Quote Originally Posted by balut View Post
      TRADE UPDATE:

      I woke up this morning and saw my AUDUSD buy position has been invalidated so I had no choice but to let it go with a -30 pips loss. I'm a bit relief to exit from that trade because I'm very worried about the Fed interest hike rate that will happen 14 hours from now. I'm not sure what will happen to its price but if it become bullish after the hike rate then I may buy it again.



      AUD/USD last night went down because US Core CPI m/m increased 0.1% from the previous month. This indication could be a target of 2% US inflation will be achieved in this year. It might be better to wait for Federal Funds Rate result before deciding to take another buy position. You can also do short term trading with PPI m/m data tonight with target 20-30 points.
      Btw how about with your position on GBP/CAD? Is there any progress?
      don't use Luck in the trade but it would be better to use Greed
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      dedy hari kurniawan's trading journal


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    15. #1528
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      Quote Originally Posted by Omoba9ce View Post
      Yeah , the Fed will most likely increase interest rates today but if they do this, it will not strengthen, but weaken the USD to a large extent, because this news has already been priced in. There might be an initial spike in favour of Usd but it will most likely be short lived. The market has been moving in favor of Usd already since news of rates hike hit the market, so it'll be a case of "buy the rumour, sell the news".
      We have the same bias on USD weakening and I hope we're right since most major pairs are pose for trend reversal and to make another new trend.

      Quote Originally Posted by I'm Trader View Post
      But in other hand if there is not hike in rate then what will happen? Do you have any idea about that? Maybe it force USD toward weakness but i think big player will play oppositions role very strongly which can hold USD at current level or maybe some up & down.
      If there's no hike rate then there's a high probability that the USD index will crash due to severe weakening. USD is currently overbought and I think that the hike rate is already priced in.

      Quote Originally Posted by dedy hari kurniawan View Post
      AUD/USD last night went down because US Core CPI m/m increased 0.1% from the previous month. This indication could be a target of 2% US inflation will be achieved in this year. It might be better to wait for Federal Funds Rate result before deciding to take another buy position. You can also do short term trading with PPI m/m data tonight with target 20-30 points.
      Btw how about with your position on GBP/CAD? Is there any progress?
      You're right about USD hike rate and I'm also waiting for its reaction before I make my next move. So far my GBPCAD buy position is still holding on and consolidating after the neutral result of GBP CPI. If the GBPCAD daily candle closed below moving average(red) then I may exit the trade.


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    17. #1529
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      Quote Originally Posted by balut View Post
      We have the same bias on USD weakening and I hope we're right since most major pairs are pose for trend reversal and to make another new trend.



      If there's no hike rate then there's a high probability that the USD index will crash due to severe weakening. USD is currently overbought and I think that the hike rate is already priced in.



      You're right about USD hike rate and I'm also waiting for its reaction before I make my next move. So far my GBPCAD buy position is still holding on and consolidating after the neutral result of GBP CPI. If the GBPCAD daily candle closed below moving average(red) then I may exit the trade.

      I think this pair at down channel price and it will keep go deep to reach 1.7061 so any sell opportunity will be on small frame you should take it, take care because any trader have ratio of wrong on his expection coz market is hard to expected the price at next mint so make sure that you have good plan for money management because also this pair have high number of pips as spreed .

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    20. #1530
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      TRADE UPDATE:

      I was not able to update my journal yesterday because I was disheartened of my losses that I got from USDCHF and other pairs. It was a wrong decision to sold the USDCHF based only in bearish weekly chart when the USD fundamentals and sentiment are strong. I thought the Fed hike rate was already priced in but I was wrong. I even find it hard to write this update because I'm still sad of what happened. I'll wait for the market close later so I can analyze how much losses I made on my new drawdown.


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