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    Thread: EUR/USD (part 80)

    1. #241
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      Default Re: EUR/USD (part 80)

      Itís Wednesday, 12.12.2018.
      So, our intraday scenario is as follows. The southern target is 1.1260, Iím not expecting the trend line to go lower than that. The level confirming the bearish trend is 1.1317. In case of a breakout of 1.1366, the trend will be headed to the north.
      The price will rebound to the north on M15 today. Itís not there yet, though, this rebound will begin at 1.1347.
      Even though H1 and H4 are headed south, Iím not into it as my indices donít show me a good picture. Moreover, the ECB meeting is looming, so I donít want to rush into selling right now. I closed my short positions just in case.
      Basically, the trend is bearish at the moment. The main question now is when the rebound will happen and how far it will go. If it goes back to 1.1420, then I will trade the EUR/USD pair only after the New Year.

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      The trend line will go up to 1.1380 and 1.1420 sooner or later, therefore I donít want to risk working down. It will happen when the indices come together. Currently, we have a weak south and mostly stay in flat.

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      H1 signals south as well, the direction is clear. However, itís too weak, so I think we are still in flat, just the range is getting wider. I wonít be surprised if the price shoots up to 1.1420 and amid the ECB meetingís results. Then, the price will just stay around there, I donít expect it to change much within December. It is the end of the year, so most of the investments in the market are short-term.

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      Lastly, letís look at H4. Itís sill showing flat. There was an attempt to go up, but it was broken over the Brexit and Trumpís twit. We have to wait till things come in order.

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      The intraday levels that show the direction for today are 1.1399 above and 1.1317 below. If the trend line reaches one of them, then it will be more likely to stay in that direction.
      Thatís it for now. I wish everybody luck and profit!

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    2. #242
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      Default Re: EUR/USD (part 80)

      Hello, dear traders.
      Today, the same range of 1.1360 serves as the first resistance level, and to be more precise, the important option call level is at 1.1355, and given the risk premium, the level shifts to 1.1368.
      In order to grow higher, the rate needs to overcome this range.
      Yesterday, most of call options were traded at 1.1550 (1.1450 at forex prices), but today, after the full report on yesterday's trading was released, it turned out that the greatest turnover was at 1.1450 (1.1350 forex), so the main resistance would be at this level.
      Only after the breakout and keeping the price above 1.1350, we can speak of further growth.
      The lower limit is at 1.1300 at forex prices.
      The downward movement below this mark will not be profitable, especially considering the open interest of the weekly contract.

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      Open interest:
      If we consider the changes in open interest for the weekly contract, the first thing we should notice is the addition of put options at 1.1400 (1.1300 at forex prices) in the amount of 1,240 contracts.
      There is a reason for such an addition, this level will be protected, especially today, because today, there is an expiration of the short contract and we do not want the prices to be below 1.1300. The best option is to raise the price to 1.1400 on Forex. At the very least, it is also possible at the first resistance of 1.1360 at the end of the trading day.
      At the level of 1.1350 at forex prices, call options were added yesterday. This level will act as a magnet for the price. I think we should not exclude this option today.
      As for the option levels, this level will be the minimum price range for closing the trading day.

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      Trading plan:
      At the moment, I am not going to open new positions.
      I still have four open purchases.
      I do not move take profit orders, they are still in the range of 1.1450. Their movement depends on how today's trading day closes.
      The breakout of 1.1355 will be a positive signal for growth.
      Any attempts to keep the price below 1.1355 will be regarded as fixing all purchases with zero result.
      The achievement of the 1.1290 level will indicate a way out of the very first purchase.

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    3. #243
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      Default Re: EUR/USD (part 80)



      This is the EUR/USD setup on daily chart. The EUR/USD pairing sees a constraining pattern forming on Daily candlesticks and swing traders will be looking for a break and retest of either boundary before loading into further locations. the fiber is likely to remain middling heading into the Christmas season. Now EUR/USD market is moving towards the 1.1355 resistance level.


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    5. #244
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      Default Re: EUR/USD (part 80)

      Quote Originally Posted by ForexRich View Post
      Hello, dear traders.
      Today, the same range of 1.1360 serves as the first resistance level, and to be more precise, the important option call level is at 1.1355, and given the risk premium, the level shifts to 1.1368.
      In order to grow higher, the rate needs to overcome this range.
      Yesterday, most of call options were traded at 1.1550 (1.1450 at forex prices), but today, after the full report on yesterday's trading was released, it turned out that the greatest turnover was at 1.1450 (1.1350 forex), so the main resistance would be at this level.
      Only after the breakout and keeping the price above 1.1350, we can speak of further growth.
      The lower limit is at 1.1300 at forex prices.
      The downward movement below this mark will not be profitable, especially considering the open interest of the weekly contract.

      Attachment 94269

      Open interest:
      If we consider the changes in open interest for the weekly contract, the first thing we should notice is the addition of put options at 1.1400 (1.1300 at forex prices) in the amount of 1,240 contracts.
      There is a reason for such an addition, this level will be protected, especially today, because today, there is an expiration of the short contract and we do not want the prices to be below 1.1300. The best option is to raise the price to 1.1400 on Forex. At the very least, it is also possible at the first resistance of 1.1360 at the end of the trading day.
      At the level of 1.1350 at forex prices, call options were added yesterday. This level will act as a magnet for the price. I think we should not exclude this option today.
      As for the option levels, this level will be the minimum price range for closing the trading day.

      Attachment 94270

      Trading plan:
      At the moment, I am not going to open new positions.
      I still have four open purchases.
      I do not move take profit orders, they are still in the range of 1.1450. Their movement depends on how today's trading day closes.
      The breakout of 1.1355 will be a positive signal for growth.
      Any attempts to keep the price below 1.1355 will be regarded as fixing all purchases with zero result.
      The achievement of the 1.1290 level will indicate a way out of the very first purchase.

      Attachment 94271
      This is the EUR/USD setup on every day diagram. The EUR/USD matching sees a compelling example framing on Daily candles and swing merchants will search for a break and retest of either limit before stacking into further areas. the fiber is probably going to stay average heading into the Christmas season. Presently EUR/USD showcase is moving towards the 1.1345 obstruction level.


    6. The following 2 users say Thank You to mexima22 for this useful post.

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    7. #245
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      Default Re: EUR/USD (part 80)

      Quote Originally Posted by mexima22 View Post
      This is the EUR/USD setup on every day diagram. The EUR/USD matching sees a compelling example framing on Daily candles and swing merchants will search for a break and retest of either limit before stacking into further areas. the fiber is probably going to stay average heading into the Christmas season. Presently EUR/USD showcase is moving towards the 1.1345 obstruction level.
      I will try to see the candlestick with the M15 M30 H1 and H4 timeframes before I decide to take a step, because there is still too much uncertainty in the market even though it seems the direction is bearish. Recent support and resistance cannot be used as a reference because often prices suddenly turn sharply.


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