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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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    EUR/USD. January 13, 2021 – The pair cannot determine the movement vector

    The EUR/USD pair continues to trade in different directions, fluctuating within the range of 1.2130-1.2230. The current quote for the euro is 1.2165.

    Yesterday the dollar weakened across the entire spectrum of the market amid declining yields on US government bonds. Today, the US currency has turned around and is showing corrective growth.

    Today you should pay attention to the publication of inflation data for December. Analysts predict that the CPI added 0.1% mom after gaining 0.2% mom in November. Experts note that the more neutral the statistics are, the better for the dollar, since inflation surges would now be a high risk (in anticipation of the imminent introduction of a new stimulus package).

    In the evening, the US Federal Reserve Beige Book will be published. Usually the market does not react to such publications, but they are important for understanding the general picture of what is happening in the American economy.

    ---------- Post added 01-14-2021 at 02:01 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-13-2021 at 09:16 PM ----------

    January 14, 2021 – Why is the oil market declining?

    Yesterday, Brent quotes updated an almost annual maximum at $57.38 per barrel, but today the asset has dropped to $55.77.

    The pressure on prices was exerted by data on changes in US oil product inventories. According to a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, crude oil inventories in the country fell by 3.2 million barrels for the week, while analysts predicted a decline of 3.8 million. A day earlier, API released a similar report, according to which oil reserves decreased by 5.8 million

    The report from the EIA also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate stocks by 4.8 million barrels, which was worse than forecasts (3.2 million and 2.8 million barrels, respectively).

    Additional pressure on Brent came from the recovery of the US dollar in the Forex market. The USD Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six major foreign exchange competitors, rose 0.3% on the day. The new US President Joe Biden will speak today. The head of the White House may announce new measures to support the economy, which will put pressure on the dollar and, as a result, lead to an increase in oil prices.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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    GBP/USD. 15.01 | Consolidation in the 1.36-1.37 price range

    The GBP/USD pair continues to trade within the range of 1.36-1.37. The current quote is 1.3655.

    Currently, the epidemiological situation in the UK continues to deteriorate. Moreover, on the eve of the country's Ministry of Transport announced the cancellation of flights with a number of South American states and Portugal after the discovery of a new strain of coronavirus in Brazil. Despite this, the British currency continues to trade in the area of ​​the recent two-year highs. The fact is that market participants still take into account the high probability of the introduction of negative rates by the Bank of England.

    At the same time, the dollar is under pressure from the decline in Treasury yields and the weak report on claims for unemployment benefits, published yesterday. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who filed initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 965 thousand, more than the forecast of 795 thousand. During the day, the movement of the pair within the current price range will continue.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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    EUR/USD. January 18, 2021 – Euro continues to decline

    The euro continues to decline against the dollar on Monday, reaching 1.2060. Weak economic statistics from the US, as well as uncertainty in the timing of the discussion of Joe Biden's stimulus program put pressure on risky assets.

    It is noted that the package of measures to support the economy proposed by Biden includes direct payments to Americans in the amount of $1,400, a temporary increase in payments to the unemployed, and an increase in the minimum wage at the federal level to $15 per hour. However, experts believe that the new president will not be able to pass the stimulus plan in this form through Congress.

    This week, all the attention of the markets will be drawn to the speech in the Senate of the former chairman of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen on Tuesday. Market participants expect that the country's new finance minister will make it clear that they are taking an approach in which the dollar should be determined by the market. This will mean that the Ministry of Finance does not intend to interfere with the dynamics of the national currency.

    Today is a day off in the United States to celebrate Martin Luther King Day, so the pair will continue to trade weakly around 1.2080.

    Brent. January 18, 2021 – The oil market continues to decline on Monday

    On Monday, oil prices continued to decline, reaching $54.50 per barrel. Such dynamics was a consequence of the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as a decrease in traders' optimism amid an increase in the incidence of Covid in the world. However, statistics from China, showing GDP growth of 2.3% (more than forecast) and an increase in industrial production in December by 7.3%, limit the decline in oil prices today.

    Experts note that the oil market has grown strongly lately, and the current decline is giving it some respite. The key event for the market in the near future will be the inauguration of the US President-elect Joe Biden and his further economic program.

    Brent was also under pressure at the end of last week with data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes. The report reflected an increase in the number of operating oil rigs in the US last week by 12 units to 287 rigs. The number of work units has been increasing for eight consecutive weeks.

    The current Brent quote is $54.80. During the day, we expect a slight recovery in the price to the $55 per barrel area.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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    EUR/USD. January 19, 2021 – The pair is awaiting Biden's inauguration

    On Tuesday, the major currency pair started recovering from the 1.2050 area. The current quote EUR/USD is 1.2135.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, but market participants have something to think over. For example, the results of the Reuters poll showed that the new stimulus package from the ECB is unlikely to have a positive impact on the European economy. In particular, we are talking about the already agreed PEPP package of 185 trillion euros, which was extended for another 9 months. Against the backdrop of such pessimistic opinions, the economic outlook for the eurozone looks rather bleak.

    As for the United States, not everything is smooth here either. Former head of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen said that the US economy could find itself in a long and rather severe recession if Congress does not agree on additional support measures. Today, attention should be paid to Yellen's speech, which, as expected, Joe Biden intends to appoint the new head of the Federal Reserve System.

    The inauguration of the new US President-elect Joe Biden will take place tomorrow. Market participants are waiting for this event, so the dynamics of trading today will not differ in activity.

    January 19, 2021. Fundamental analysis of the oil market

    The oil market, which has been growing steadily since the beginning of November last year (when the first news of successful trials of coronavirus vaccines appeared), is gradually losing its impetus. Having managed to rise from the $40 per barrel area to $57 from October to January, today oil is traded near the $55 per barrel level.

    The January 2021 high at $57.5 was reached after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly announced its decision to unilaterally cut oil production in February and March (by 1 million barrels per day). Then the pandemic and its consequences on transportation and fuel demand again began to put pressure on quotations.

    At the same time, some support for the prices of «black gold» is provided by the approval of Joe Biden as the new US president. Market participants expect that its measures to support the economy will raise inflation, which has increased the demand for oil from speculators and investors.

    Taking into account the current fundamental background, it can be concluded that oil prices are unlikely to grow significantly in the near future. We believe that the range of fluctuations in Brent quotes will be represented by a corridor of $50-55 per barrel.

    Today prices are rising slightly from the $55 level in anticipation of a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The experts of the organization intend to share their forecasts for the further dynamics of the market, taking into account the new lockdowns in many countries.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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