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    Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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      GBP/USD. December 17, 2019 – Sterling continues to keep downside

      The British currency continues to decline on Tuesday, reaching a support level of 1.3200. Earlier, after the victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK, the sterling managed to update the maximum of May 2018 at the mark 1.35, but quickly lost all positions.

      Pressure on the British currency is exerted by weak macroeconomic data. In particular, yesterday's data on business activity showed the sharpest decline since July 2016. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell from the November level of 49.3 to 48.5 points in December, which became a minimum of 41 months. The service sector PMI in December fell from 49.3 to 49 points, having reached its lowest level in nine months. UK manufacturing PMI fell from 48.9 to 47.4 points, which also became the lowest indicator in four months.

      Today you should pay attention to the release of data on the British labor market and the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney. The weakness of statistical reports may push the regulator to soften monetary policy, that will put further pressure on the sterling.

      ---------- Post added 12-18-2019 at 02:54 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-17-2019 at 03:10 PM ----------

      EUR/USD. December 18, 2019 – Euro shows weakness

      Today the euro keeps showing decrease paired with the dollar, having reached the mark 1.1125. The currency is under pressure of investors' concerns about the situation with Brexit. Earlier British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, that he intended to introduce the law about country's obligation to leave the European Union in 2020 without the possibility of extending the transition period. This fact again cast doubt on the likelihood of leaving the EU with a deal.

      Along with it the US dollar is supported by optimism around trade negotiations between the US and China and by strong macroeconomic data from the United States. Industrial production in November increased by 1.1% against forecasts of an increase of 0.8% and after a decline of 0.9% a month earlier. The number of building permits in November also exceeded forecasts.

      Today you should pay attention to Ifo business optimism index for December and Eurozone inflation data for November.

      ---------- Post added 12-19-2019 at 02:38 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-18-2019 at 02:54 PM ----------

      Brent/USD. December 19, 2019 – Oil stabilized above $66 after data from the US Department of Energy

      Oil continues to hold in the area of ​​local highs above the level of $66 per barrel. Brent was supported by yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy. The statistics reflected a decrease in oil reserves by 1 million barrels, while similar data from API a day earlier showed an increase in stocks by 5 million barrels.

      The appetite for risky assets remains moderate, as no news has been received from the front of the trade war last days. So, during the day we expect calm trading in the area above $62 per barrel.

      ---------- Post added 12-20-2019 at 02:33 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-19-2019 at 02:38 PM ----------

      GBP/USD. December 20, 2019 – Sterling plummeted to 1.3000

      The sterling continues to decline, reaching the level of 1.3000 on Friday. The pound became the main outsider of the week, collapsing from the level of 1.35. The driver of the fall became the statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, revived fears of a tough and disorganized Brexit.

      Additional pressure on the pound was provided by weak data on retail sales in the UK, which showed an unexpected decline in November at the fastest pace for the year (-0.6%). On an annualized basis, retail sales growth slowed to the level of April 2018 (1%).

      As a result of weak data reflecting the detrimental influence of Brexit on the British economy, the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 0.75%. Moreover, market participants expect the regulator to begin a cycle of easing monetary policy at the beginning of next year.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      EUR/USD. December 23, 2019 – Euro continues to weaken

      On past Friday the EUR/USD pair fell to the area of ​​1.1050, reacting to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market and the decline of the EUR/GBP pair (to 0.85). The dollar got support from U.S. GDP data for the III quarter, which showed accelerated growth in the US economy. Gross domestic product increased 2.1% year on year. Additional support was provided by data on income and expenses: in November personal income grew by 0.5% (the forecast was 0.3%). Personal expenses increased by 0.4% (the indicator coincided with the forecast).

      At 16:30, you should pay attention to the publication of data on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US in November. Experts expect the figure to drop from 1.5% m/m to 0.6% m/m. Since this indicator is an important leading indicator of production trends and investment activity, these data can put strong pressure on the dollar. At 18:00 no less important publication is expected – a report on the volume of home sales in the primary market in November.

      We remind you that tomorrow the exchanges will work on a shortened schedule, and the full-fledged work of the sites will resume on Thursday, after the Christmas holidays. Today, in anticipation of macroeconomic news, the pair will continue to weaken to the area of ​​1.1060.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      USD/CAD. December 24, 2019 – Canadian dollar continues to decline

      Today the Canadian dollar is showing a decline to the mark 1.3165 after the release of statistics on Canadian GDP. According to recent data, the country's economy slowed down by 0.1% in October.

      Over the past few weeks the «canadian» has shown steady growth, having managed to reach the level of 1.31. The looney strengthened, despite the weak data on retail sales (-1.2% versus 0.5%) and employment (-71.2K against the forecast of 10.0K). However, currency growth was stopped by a strong support level of 1.31.

      Experts believe that in the near future it will be difficult for the Canadian dollar to continue to strengthen. The Bank of Canada is still satisfied with the current monetary policy, however, in 2020, the regulator may begin to introduce mitigation measures if Canada's economic indexes continues to deteriorate.

      ---------- Post added 12-25-2019 at 02:36 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-24-2019 at 03:36 PM ----------

      Brent/USD. December 25, 2019 – Oil reached $67.20 per barrel

      Brent quotes continue to update highs. This morning, the price of «black gold» rose to $67.20 per barrel. The growth factor was positive news from the front of trade negotiations between the US and China: US President D. Trump said, that the sides had finally approved the first phase of the trade deal. And now they are finalizing and translating the necessary documentation to sign the agreement.

      In addition, yesterday the American Petroleum Institute (API) published a report according to which US crude oil inventories fell by almost 8 million barrels per week. Analysts expected a decline of 2 million.

      Today we should not expect significant dynamics in the oil market, since most of the European and American sites are closed due to the celebration of Christmas.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      GBP/USD. December 26, 2019 – Sterling slightly declining from 1.30

      The level of 1.3000 managed to restrain the British «bulls», not allowing the pound to gain a foothold above this mark. The current quotation of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2960.

      The news background is mixed today. On the one hand, the negative dynamics of the debt market is exerting pressure on sterling, where the yield on UK government bonds is declining relative to its counterparts from the USA and Germany.

      On the other hand, the rise of oil prices may provide local support to the pound. Brent climbed to a high of $67.50 per barrel after the release of statistics from the American Petroleum Institute, according to which US oil inventories fell four times more than analysts had expected.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      EUR/USD. December 27, 2019 – Euro is growing rapidly

      The euro today confidently approached the level 1,1150. The currency began to strengthen yesterday, responding to the continued optimistic mood of market participants regarding the settlement of the US-Chinese trade conflict. The leaders of the USA and China confirmed that the first phase of the trade deal had already been concluded, and in early 2020 the parties will hold a ceremony of signing the agreement.

      The US dollar received some support yesterday after the release of data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The indicator fell to 222K, which turned out to be slightly better than analysts' forecasts (224K). The previous indicator was fixed at 235K. However, this factor was not enough for the dollar to withstand the rapidly growing euro.

      Moreover, amid a probable recovery in global economic growth in 2020, the demand for protective assets may decline, which may put some pressure on the US dollar. Today we will observe the recovery of the European currency from the level of 1,1100 to the area above 1,1150.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      EUR/USD. December 30, 2019 – Euro recovered to 1.1200

      The European currency continues to win back the losses of the last week, reaching the level of 1.1200. The US dollar is under pressure: on Friday, all G10 currencies and most emerging markets currencies showed growth in tandem with the dollar, and today this trend continues.

      Optimism at global sites is fueled by expectations of the imminent signing of the first phase of a trade agreement between the US and China. In anticipation of the New Year, market activity is small, and the news background remains neutral, so the topic of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing will be the main factor influencing the EUR/USD pair in the near future.

      The only thing that you should pay attention to is the secondary data on the American economy: in the evening hours the business activity index (PMI) in Chicago and the business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will be published. Experts suggest a slight increase in indicators. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will receive some support and will not allow the euro to gain a foothold above the level of 1.12.

      ---------- Post added 12-31-2019 at 01:54 PM ---------- Previous post was 12-30-2019 at 02:59 PM ----------

      EUR/USD. December 31, 2019 – Euro is confidently approaching 1.1240

      The euro continues to grow, breaking the level of 1.1200. Today, in anticipation of the New Year holidays, trading activity will remain low, since most of the world markets will be closed.

      Support for the European currency continues to be provided by positive information on the US and China trade deal. Representatives of China reported that the leaders of two countries took a phone talk, and discussed the details of the first part of the trade agreement. It is noted, that the signing of the deal will most likely take place in the first week of January 2020.

      Such a decrease in trade tension has a positive effect on the entire global economy, which, in turn, will increase the demand for risky assets and support the «eurobulls» in the near future.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      Brent/USD. January 07, 2020

      Brent crude on Tuesday shows a correctional decline from the level of $70 per barrel. The current quote of the asset is $68.40.

      The focus of the market is still the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could turn into the open military confrontation between the US and Iran. This, in turn, may create a shortage of supply on the global oil market due to interruptions in supplies from Iran and Iraq – countries that produce more than 30% of all hydrocarbons in the Middle East region.

      Iran’s response to the assassination of Iran’s military leader Qassem Suleimani at Baghdad’s airport will inevitably lead to further intensification of the military conflict, which will allow Brent crude to return to an upward trend above $70 per barrel.

      Additional support for oil can be provided by data on changes in oil reserves in the United States from API and the US Department of Energy. Analysts expect a decrease in reserves of 4 million barrels.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      USD/CAD. January 08, 2020 – Canadian dollar remains at local highs

      Oil continues to trade at local highs ($69 per barrel), supporting all commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar. At the same time, pressure on currencies is exerted by risk aversion amid escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The current CAD quote is 1.3000.

      It should be noted that the Canadian dollar is the least vulnerable to risk aversion, since the Canadian economy mainly has support of the US market. This fact allows looney quotes to stabilize in the area of ​​local maximums.

      In addition, a further increase in oil prices can completely neutralize the risk aversion factor, an this will allow the USD/CAD pair to continue to decline to 1.3150.

      ---------- Post added 01-09-2020 at 12:22 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-08-2020 at 04:21 PM ----------

      Fundamental analysis of Brent. January 09, 2020

      Brent crude oil failed to stay in the region above $70, and today we see quotes decline to around $65.50 per barrel. Pressure on prices was exerted by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: despite Tehran's attacks on US military bases in Iraq, Donald Trump refrained from further retaliatory measures.

      The American president said that he was against further escalation of the military conflict, noting his intention to confine himself to new economic barriers in the form of tougher sanctions against Iran.

      In addition to the Middle East conflict, a report from the US Department of Energy on changes in crude oil reserves acted as a factor of pressure on oil prices. According to the latest data, oil reserves rose 1.2 million barrels, after falling for three consecutive weeks. Experts predicted a reduction in reserves of 3.5 million barrels.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      EUR/USD. January 10, 2020 – The dollar remains strong at 1.11

      The EUR/USD pair remains stable just below 1.1100. The ending week was rich in publications on the American labor market. On Wednesday, data on the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP came out, which reflected an increase of 202 thousand against a growth a month earlier by 124 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 140 thousand.

      Yesterday, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week were presented: the number of Americans first applying for benefits fell to a minimum level of 5 weeks. The indicator decreased by 9 thousand – to 214 thousand.

      Today, attention should be paid to the release of statistics on the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP). Experts believe that the indicator grew in December by 266 thousand after an increase of 162 thousand in November. Average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.2% in monthly terms.

      Thus, such strong statistics providing significant support to the US currency will allow the dollar to consolidate below the level of 1.11.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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      EUR/USD. January 13, 2020 – Dollar is under pressure from weak labor market data

      The euro is showing some growth at the beginning of the new trading week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1115. The dollar was pressured last week by the publication of weak US labor market data for December. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector last month rose only 145 thousand against the forecast of expansion by 162 thousand. A similar indicator for November was fixed at around 256 thousand.

      The average hourly earnings, according to current statistics, increased in December by only 0.1% mom. A month earlier, the indicator rose 0.3% m/m, a similar increase was expected now. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.5%, as predicted.

      Thus, the dollar responded with a decline in this data. During the day, we do not expect sharp price spikes; the pair will continue to fluctuate slightly in the region above 1.11.

      ---------- Post added 01-14-2020 at 02:27 PM ---------- Previous post was 01-13-2020 at 02:48 PM ----------

      GBP/USD. January 14, 2020 – Pound weakens since the beginning of the year

      The British currency stopped its decline at 1.2950 and managed to stabilize below the level of 1.3000. Earlier, weak data on industrial production in the UK put pressure on the sterling exchange rate. According to statistics, the volume of industrial production in the country in November fell by 1.2% on a monthly basis against the growth of 0.4% m/m in October.

      Manufacturing output also showed a decline in November – by 1.7% m/m. At the same time, the volume of production in the construction sector recovered after the October fall by 2.2% m/m, showing an increase of 1.9% m/m.

      British GDP data also disappointed the markets: the economy slowed down by 0.3% on a monthly basis after rising 0.1% in October. Experts note that such figures reflect the weakest growth rate of the British economic system over the past 7 years.

      As a result, the pound fell from 1.33 to 1.30 in just a couple of weeks.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager


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