GBP/USD. September 15, 2020 – Pound recovers moderately after long decline
Although the GBP/USD pair remains in a downward trend, it has been showing signs of recovery since the beginning of this week, responding to the positive British statistics. The current quote for the pair is 1.2890.
The UK released several economic reports this morning to support the pound. In particular, in July the growth of the average wages amounted to -1.0% against the forecast of -1.3%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits also fell in August. The actual number of requests was 73.7 thousand, while the forecasts assumed an increase to 100 thousand. Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.
At the same time, the US dollar is under pressure from the protracted dispute in the US Congress over the issue of an additional package of monetary stimulus measures. In the evening hours, you should pay attention to the data on industrial production in the United States. Experts predict a slowdown in the decline in production from -8.2% to -6.1%, which may support the dollar.
The RSI indicator continues to rise towards the resistance zone, which signals the continued growth of the pound to the level of 1.29 and subsequent consolidation in this area.
---------- Post added 09-16-2020 at 05:15 PM ---------- Previous post was 09-15-2020 at 09:15 PM ----------
Brent. September 16, 2020 – Oil market is growing again
Oil prices are rising for the second day in a row. The current Brent quotation is $41.40 per barrel.
The reason for the strengthening was the suspension of oil and gas production in the United States due to hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico. The current estimate for the total loss of production is between 3 and 6 million barrels of oil in about 11 days.
Additional support to prices was provided by yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a decrease in oil reserves in the United States by 9.5 million barrels, to 494.6 million. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 1.3 million barrels.
The dynamics of the oil market also depends on the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. If the event provides support for the dollar, oil prices are expected to show a correction.
USD/CAD. September 16, 2020 – Canadian dollar rises moderately in anticipation of inflation data
On Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair is moderately declining from the level of 1.3200. The current quote of the pair is 1.3160.
Statistics released yesterday from the US and Canada turned out to be weak. In the United States, data on industrial production were presented, the volume of which fell from 3.5% to 0.4% in August. The forecast assumed a reduction to 1.0%. Canada shared data on manufacturing sales, which fell from 23.0% to 7.0%.
Today you should pay attention to the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors do not expect changes in interest rates or the course of monetary policy, policy, but the subsequent press conference of Jerome Powell will be of interest. The head of the Fed should comment on the issue of further interest rate cuts.
In Canada, a block of data on the dynamics of consumer prices will be published today. Market participants expect inflation to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%, which may provide some support to the Canadian dollar.
---------- Post added 09-17-2020 at 03:43 PM ---------- Previous post was 09-16-2020 at 05:15 PM ----------
EUR/USD. September 17, 2020 – The dollar strengthened after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but not for long
Yesterday, the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve became known, which provided significant support to the dollar. In the evening hours, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1735. However, on Thursday the euro managed to make up for all the losses and return to the level of 1.1800.
The Open Markets Committee of the Federal Reserve System decided to leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. The key rate was kept at the historically minimal level – in the range of 0-0.25% per annum. At the same time, most Fed leaders expect the rate to remain in the current range until the end of 2023.
The ultra-soft monetary policy will continue until unemployment drops to estimated levels and inflation accelerates to 2%.
The Central Bank also improved its forecasts for GDP and unemployment for 2020: from -6.5% to -3.7% and from 9.3% to 7.6%. Jerome Powell noted that over the past two months, the US economy has been recovering faster than expected.
Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the euro area. Experts forecast a decline from 0.4% to -0.2%. And this will already become the official recognition of Europe's slide into deflation. The states will provide data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Experts expect further growth in the number of applications.