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    Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    1. #841
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      EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 4, 2019

      The EUR/USD pair may move close to the bottom and the present bounce off is due to the trade talks between China and the US on the weekend. In turn, this resulted in a correlation across the financial markets.

      The 10-year Treasury yields rallied from 2% while gold prices dropped lower than $1400 following a breakout in the previous week. The equity market is under pressure given that the S&P 500 drops from the resistance on the longer timeframe. It is not surprising that the dollar index bounced off more than the 200-DMA.

      A divergence between the dollar and other trading instruments has important in considering the trading since the dollar has not undergone a reversal like other assets. Yet, it is also not that logical to expect the euro major pair will further go down present the given fundamental event even looking at how aggressive the market sets in easing in July. Nonetheless, the pair seems to have been trading for just about 1.5% from the multi-year lows.

      There is significant confluence in the support close to the trading area which is at the 100-MA and the lower bound channel at 1.1264.

      Bull traders will meet an obstruction at 1.1305, which pushed the pair lower yesterday.

      The data of NFP on Friday will bring in some volatility to the pair. For now, the pair will likely to continue in consolidating within the range. Support is expected to be close to 1.1264 and the markets are probably not assured with the short-term trade war truce.

      ---------- Post added 07-05-2019 at 04:46 PM ---------- Previous post was 07-04-2019 at 04:56 PM ----------

      EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 5, 2019

      Analysts are looking hoping for growth in the labor market after it failed to meet expectations of previous month’s reading. The job report for today will determine the course of the Fed in July since the strength of labor will have a significant role in the action of Fed. Hence, an exceeding report can result for an easing or the other way around.

      The Euro major pair is in the important situation prior to the release of the jobs report given that there is downward confluence on the support. For the past couple of days, the pair was seen consolidating above.

      In particular, there is a horizontal level at 1.1264, which held the pair twice below in May. The 100-MA was close around this area enough for a confluence.

      Furthermore, there is a support as it bounces below in the rising channel from previous lows in late May. Moreover, there is a 61.8% retracement found from middle of June lows, as well in the 50% retracement from May lows close to the level of 1.1264.

      Given the confluence below on the support level, the results for NFP data has to come out with positive results in order for the EUR/USD pair to close below. The data will have a major impact on short-term trend. Yet, the resistance above keeps the pair lower at the beginning of the week. A bullish breakout will confirm the beginning of trend reversal.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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      EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 9, 2019

      The US dollar’s performance surpassed expectations at the beginning of the week as it pushes the price to lows not since the middle of June. When the rate cut is revised, this may being a surge in the pair.

      Yesterday, the psychological level is at 1.1888, which was both a support and resistance in the past. Recently, the level was kept higher in the month of June. The pair tried to approach the level early this morning and even look for a breakout below for a short while. It could prompt stops below the mid-level low in June.

      If the breakout holds, the next target for support will likely be around 1.1135. The major support is centered at 1.1188. However, this have minimal chances before the Fed rhetoric, which is anticipated to influence the movement of the pair in the next few days. At the same time, this will confirm the positioning of the central bank. Overall, it is important to be heedful in trading given this background.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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      EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019

      Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations.

      Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing.

      The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged.

      A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far.

      The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week.

      It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below.

      There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.
      Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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