The pound dollar pair rose during the Asian session yesterday, Friday, with the end of the week’s trading after its strong rise during the week, after the Bank of England meeting and keeping the interest rate at 0.10% unchanged as expectations, and the size of its asset purchases program at 895 billion pounds unchanged. On Friday, the Halifax House Price Index was released, with more than expected declines. On the other side of the US economy, today we have US government jobs data, and expectations are positive for the addition of 85,000 jobs.
Technically, the pound dollar rose during Friday's trading, but I am still trading below the rising wedge levels, as it is possible that the pair builds on 1.3720 levels before returning to fall again toward 1.3520 support levels. Stop loss should be around the breach of 1.3780 levels with a 4-hour candle and a precautionary stop at 1.3800.
The Aussie Canadian pair fluctuated during the Asian session on Friday, with the end of the week's trading, despite the release of the monetary policy statement of the Australian Reserve and the speech of Australian Reserve Governor Lowe. On the other side of the Canadian economy, we awaited a set of important data during Friday, including the change in employment, then the unemployment rate and the trade balance, and at exactly five o'clock it was our appointment with the PMI indicator issued by Ivey.
From a technical point of view, the Australian Canadian pair rebounded from the uptrend levels on the Daily frame, and we still expect a further rise for the pair, especially after it bounced back from the MA 50 levels, where we target 0.9830 levels near the downtrend levels on the four hour frame.
The euro pound declined during the Asian session, Friday, as it began to decline after the Bank of England meeting yesterday, keeping the interest rate at 0.10%, unchanged as expectations, and the size of its asset purchases program at 895 billion pounds, unchanged, as the pound sterling rose. Against most currencies, despite the pessimistic tone of the bank’s governor, who indicated that there are signs that the real unemployment rate in Britain is much higher than the figures announced recently, and that the British labor market data is difficult to interpret in the current period due to the closure restrictions associated with the Corona pandemic. Moreover, the Halifax House Price Index was released, with more than expected declines.
Technically, the euro pound retreated against our expectations yesterday and made our stop-losses. We expect the pair to be the BAT harmonic pattern on the daily frame, and 0.8740 levels could be a buying opportunity on the pair, targeting 0.8860 levels. Stops are set at the break down toward 0.8665.
Oil exceeds its highest levels in a year.
German Health Minister: Coronavirus measures should not be so soon.
The Senate approves the budget plan and prepares the stimulus.
1:- Oil exceeds its highest levels in a year.
Oil trading rose to its highest levels in a year, extending a series of strong gains after the release of an optimistic report from the United States. As the data showed high expectations from the US stimulus package. Against the background of indicators of economic growth in the United States and the continued commitment of producers to curb the supply of crude.
High Chinese and American demand:
Markets were encouraged by stronger than expected US orders. Merchandise in December, in a sign of manufacturing strength, is hoping for speedy approval by lawmakers for President Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan. Analysts also see Chinese demand for crude oil also helping to support the market, as evidenced by an industry trace that indicates that there are two tankers of North Sea crude bound for China on March 22nd and March 24th.
2:- German Health Minister: Coronavirus measures should not be so soon.
Euro trading fluctuated after the German factory orders data, and the statements of German Health Minister Jens Spahn on Friday, who said that he had no real hopes for easing the Corona virus measures soon, although the recent numbers are encouraging.
"It is not yet possible to finally say where we will be on February 14th," Spahn told media Funk, calling for a "responsible transition from lockdown to a new normal." He noted that the COVID-19 case is still not under control and stressed concerns about three new types of the virus. However, he added that all vaccines are equally effective for people under the age of 65.
3:- The US Senate approves the budget plan and prepares the stimulus.
Dollar trading declined after the US Senate approved on Friday a budget plan that allows the Democratic Party to pass a stimulus package worth $ 1.9 trillion without Republican support in the coming weeks. Thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris, the tie of the votes was broken in the House after several hours of debate in the upper chamber, and the plan prompted the House of Representatives for final approval. Despite efforts by the White House to agree on a bipartisan bill, President Joe Biden last week insisted that the $1.9 trillion relief package be passed in Congress regardless of Republican support.
The pound-New Zealand pair fluctuated during the Asian session today, Monday, with the beginning of the week's trading in light of the scarcity of economic data today, waiting for inflation expectations from New Zealand quarterly on tomorrow from New Zealand.
Technically, the pair is trying to retreat after last Friday's close, as the pair retreated from the resistance levels and the MA 100 with a strong reversal candle suggesting the end of the pair's rise, as we expect that the pair will visit the uptrend near the support levels of 1.8785 soon as long as we trade below the resistance levels 1.9170.
The euro-pound fluctuated during the Asian session today, Monday, in light of the scarcity of economic data from Britain today, and from the euro zone, the German industrial production fell by more than expectations. We are still on the same expectations for the EUR / GBP pair, as the pair completed the Harmonic BAT pattern on the daily frame near 0.8740 levels under the influence of the positive divergence of the MACD indicator, where we now target the 0.8860 resistance levels with stop losses rounded to 0.8710.
The pair rose during the Asian session today, Monday, especially after the Swiss unemployment rate rose today from 3.4% to 3.5%, awaiting the quarterly inflation expectations from New Zealand tomorrow morning.
On the technical level, the new franc rose today near the downtrend levels on the weekly frame, the pair also has a negative divergence for the MACD indicator on the daily frame, so we expect some declines on the pair during the coming period to target levels of 0.6380 then 0.6320 and a final target near 0.6165
Gold recouped some of its past losses against the US dollar, where it rose again, now in the event that the price remains below the levels of the lower leg of the rectangle pattern at 1820 prices and stability below it is an opportunity to sell with targets up to 1780 as a first target, but in the event that the price breaks these levels and closes above them A rise to 1875 levels is very likely, but we return to the first scenario.
Euro rallies and Germany extends Covid-19 measures until early March.
The dollar rose with the decline in US Treasury bonds.
The United Kingdom records its lowest cases of Covid-19 in two months.
1:- Euro rallies and Germany extends Covid-19 measures until early March.
The euro traded higher as investors followed the comments of German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday. Which confirmed that the current epidemiological situation in the country, especially with regard to daily cases, is still too harsh for the government to ease the containment measures.
Merkel: Daily coronavirus cases are still very high. Merkel said earlier that the Covid-19 vaccine would be offered to all residents by the end of the summer, while a report, published earlier in the day, revealed that the lockdown would remain in effect until the end of February. Since the epidemic began, Germany has recorded more than 2.2 million cases of coronavirus, with more than 61,000 deaths from the disease. Coronavirus measures in Germany are set to be extended at least until the end of February, despite a drop in newly recorded COVID-19 cases, Monday's reports said, citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the magazine, the federal government is not studying the possibility of easing the restrictive measures before the summit scheduled to be held later today, after which an official decision is expected to be announced. After the COVID-19 spikes recorded during the second half of December, the number of confirmed positive cases has been in a slow but steady decline. In recent days, the Ministry of Health has reported an average of about 9,000 new cases.
2:- The dollar rose with the decline in US Treasury bonds.
The dollar traded higher in conjunction with the decline in Treasury bonds on the back of the increasing prospects for additional financial stimulus. It is the stimulus proposed by the US President to the team, Joe Biden, at a value of nearly $2 trillion.
American Institute: US exports to China are 41% below the trade agreement target. The US-based Peterson Institute for International Economics revealed in a report Monday that the United States has only exported 59% of the total amount agreed upon under the phase one agreement between Washington and Beijing in 2020. Exports rose by 13% in the previous year compared to 2019, but the increase is mostly due to the “very low” level in 2019 “in part because China imposed retaliatory duties in response to the trade war waged by former US President Donald Trump.
3:- The United Kingdom records its lowest cases of Covid-19 in two months.
Pound trading rose after a report showed that daily Covid cases in the United Kingdom fell to their lowest level in two months, as the United Kingdom recorded 15,845 cases of the new Coronavirus, which represents the lowest number of daily Covid-19 infections since December 8, according to the data. Issued by the British government on Sunday. The total number of confirmed cases in the country now stands at 39,456,680. The UK has conducted 73,277,874 virus tests since the start of the outbreak, an increase of 783,851 from a day earlier.
---------- Post added 09-02-2021 at 02:54 PM ---------- Previous post was 08-02-2021 at 06:18 PM ----------
Update Feb 9th 2021
The euro-dollar price rose clearly during the past hours, and the prices have surpassed the important resistance levels, now in the event that the price closes a four-hour candle above the intersection of the strong resistance line and the upper leg levels of the bullish flag pattern at 1.2065 and holding above them is an opportunity to buy with targets up to 1.2175 as a target for the upside. In the next few days, as for the price to fall below the aforementioned levels, the decline will be the alternative scenario.
The dollar-yen pair declined during the Asian session today, Tuesday, for the third consecutive day, after its rebound from its highest level in 4 months, as we followed up by the Japanese economy the release of the annual average income reading, which showed the expansion of the decline to 3.2% versus 1.8%, in contrast to expectations that indicated a decline of 4.7 The annual preliminary reading of the Machine Tools Orders Index was also issued, recording a decline of 9.7%.
From a technical point of view, the dollar yen pair retreated today in an attempt to reach the uptrend levels on the Daily Frame, which corresponds to the Fibonacci Cluster and the 50-day moving average, including if the pair reached this level, which will be around 104.25 levels, it is possible to think about buying directly or waiting The emergence of any reversal candles on the lower frames to support the opportunity, as we target 105.00 then 105.40 again.
The dollar franc pair declined during the Asian session today, Tuesday, in light of the scarcity of economic data from Switzerland, and on the other side of the US economy we have today and at 1:00 pm Egypt time the small business index NFIB and then at 5 pm the small business index NFIB
On the technical aspect, the dollar-franc pair fell in an attempt to build on the uptrend of the four-hour frame and the moving average 100 at 0.8925 levels, where we can buy from it cautiously, targeting 0.9025 again then 0.9060. As for the break of the trend and SMA 100 with a 4-hour candle and settling below, we expect more declines for the pair to target 0.8820 levels.
The New Zealand-Yen pair rose during the Asian session before returning again to decline, as inflation expectations in New Zealand rose for the first quarter after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed a reading of the inflation expectations index for the current first quarter, which showed an increase to 1.89% compared to 1.59% for the last quarter. .
On the other side of Japan, the annual average income reading was released, which showed the expansion of the decline to 3.2% versus 1.8%, in contrast to expectations that indicated a decline of 4.7%. Also, the preliminary annual reading of the machine tool orders index was issued, which recorded a decline of 9.7%.
Technically, the New Zealand-yen pair retreated after the pair became negative divergence for the MACD indicator on the four-hour frame, with its rebound from the upper bound of the rising wedge, and we are waiting for the pair to reach the lower bound of the wedge almost at support levels 60 / 57.55 from which we can buy the pair to target 76.00 levels. As for the break of the wedge and the support levels of a 4-hour candle and the stability below it, selling will prevail, targeting 75.10 then 74.60.
Gold prices rose again after the recent drop. Gold happened to the price of an ounce. Now it is still trading within the last price range, there will be no clear rise except by breaching the levels of the strong resistance line at 1875 prices. In the event that it is breached and closed above it, the purchase will be the master of the situation with targets up to 1910, otherwise, decline would be the most likely scenario now.
Asian stocks rise after a record close of US stocks.
Indecisive European markets trading after Wall Street rallies.
Europe may reject the proposal to extend the exit period for the United Kingdom.
1:- Asian stocks rise after a record close of US stocks.
Asian stocks rose, as stocks in the Asian markets were trading in green on Tuesday after Wall Street indices hit new closing highs in hopes of more economic stimulus. Investor sentiment has been boosted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who revealed that she hopes for a speedy recovery once President Joe Biden has approved a $ 1.9 trillion dilution.
2:- Indecisive European markets trading after Wall Street rallies.
European stocks were mixed as some stock indices in the main stock market indices in Europe remained unchanged on Tuesday after ending the transatlantic trading session at their highest levels the previous day. Investors will be watching the earnings reports due to be released this week, but they are also closely watching the diplomatic reassembly as Germany and Sweden took a tougher stance against Russia, both of whom fired a member of the diplomatic staff in Moscow the day before.
The economy is still expected to grow by 5% in 2021 - Bank of France. The Bank of France confirmed, Tuesday, that it expects the country's economy to grow by 5% in 2021 amid the ongoing crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic. Bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Gallo told Ibra: "It is strong and somewhat cautious while, of course, it reflects the great uncertainty about the health situation." Meanwhile, French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire estimated that the first signs of a recovery would appear in the second quarter of the year.
3:- Europe may reject the proposal to extend the exit period for the United Kingdom.
The pound's trading was mixed amid the UK's efforts to combat the Corona virus. At the same time, investors followed an expected decision by the European Union to reject the United Kingdom's proposal to extend the grace period for Brexit from the European Union. The European Union is likely to reject the UK's call for an extension of the two-year grace period for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, The Telegraph reported. According to several sources on both sides of the negotiations, the European Union is ready to extend the grace period by only three to six months.
Earlier reports said British Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove requested a two-year extension following a dispute over the supply of UK-made coronavirus vaccines. The European Union launched Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which relates to the free flow of goods on the island of Ireland, and then reversed the decision, sparking outrage in the United Kingdom. Goff described the move as "a fatal mistake."
The Australian dollar prices rose clearly during the past hours, as we note on the four-hour frame that it breached the downtrend levels and the resistance line levels at 0.7720 prices, in the event that the price remains above these levels and stability above them is an opportunity to buy with targets up to 0.7765 and then 0.7790. If the price falls below the mentioned levels again, the decline will be the master of the situation.
The New Zealand-Yen pair declined during the Asian session today, Wednesday, after the Japanese inflation data was revealed this morning, as the PPI reading was released, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures, which showed a slowdown in growth to 0.4%, in line with expectations, compared to 0.5% last December, while the reading indicated The annualized rate of the same index shrinking deflation to 1.6% is also in line with expectations.
On the technical front, the New Zealand pair retreated, breaking the rising wedge levels on the four hour frame, under the influence of negative divergence of the MACD indicator. It is possible to re-test the lower bound of the wedge before resuming the decline. Therefore, the selling areas for the pair will be near 75.70, targeting 75.10 then 74.60.
The dollar franc pair declined during the Asian session on Wednesday for the fourth consecutive day in light of the scarcity of economic data from Switzerland. On the other side of the US economy, we await the monthly and annual consumer prices, followed by a speech by Jerome Powell, Governor of the US Federal Reserve.
Technically, the dollar franc pair retreated after it broke the uptrend and the moving average 100 on the four-hour frame. The pair may retest the trend and the moving average before retreating almost at 0.8930 levels, from which we can sell the pair to target levels of 0.8850 then 0.8820
Gold prices are still trading close to their past levels, and as we see on the four-hour frame, gold suffers from strong resistance levels, which is the 200-release move and the resistance line levels at 1875, if the price remains below these levels, the drop will be strong to 1780 levels as a target. First, as for penetration and closure above it, the ascent to 1910 is very possible.
Oil rises to a 13-month high.
Gold and platinum rose with Ford's decision to switch to electric cars.
The European Parliament passes part of the aid to combat Corona.
1:- Oil rises to a 13-month high.
Oil trading rose after hitting its highest levels since January 2020. To continue to rise for seven consecutive days on the back of production restrictions and easing concerns about the outlook for energy demand. Prices received support from additional cuts to supplies from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia this week, as it is expected that the decline in capacity production will continue throughout the current month and the next, based on the Kingdom's decision to maintain a specific percentage of the oil expansion. This is in the context of its efforts to maintain high oil prices.
As well as launching Corona virus vaccines all over the world, about which reports vary between good spread of multiple types of vaccines in different countries of the world. And between the decisions of some governments to extend the economic shutdown beyond mid-March
In terms of data, the American Petroleum Institute revealed, on Tuesday, that crude inventories in the United States decreased by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending February 5, which increased optimism about the expected rise in global demand for fuel. Analysts had expected an increase of 985 thousand barrels. Today, investors await the US Energy Information Administration report, which shows the size of real stocks in the United States of America.
2:- Gold and platinum rose with Ford's decision to switch to electric cars.
Gold trades rose and platinum rose 3% as carmakers switched to electric cars. This coincided with the weakening of the dollar and the stabilization of US revenues and boosted hopes for more US financial stimulus from the metal's appeal. The dollar slipped to its lowest level in two weeks against competitors ahead of the release of a US consumer price report later in the day, as economists forecast a 0.2% rise in the core CPI month over month.
The price of platinum also rose more than 3% on Wednesday as car manufacturers around the world focus on producing electric cars after the Biden administration unveiled its plan to tackle climate change.
Ford Motor Company is set to start production of its first fully electric vehicle in Germany, while Nissan has pledged to focus on building electric cars in the future. Meanwhile, Tesla, the world's leading electric vehicle maker, has revealed that it is nearing completion of construction of its new R&D center in Shanghai, the company's first R&D facility outside the United States.
3:- The European Parliament approves part of the aid to combat Corona.
The euro’s trading was mixed after the European Parliament voted on Wednesday in favor of the Recovery and Resilience Act (RRF), which is a key part of the European Union’s financial measures package, which aims to combat the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic.
According to the European Commission, the Rapid Response Force will play a “critical role” in making the “economies and societies of the bloc more resilient” and securing “green and digital transitions”, as they “revolve around six pillars: the green transformation; Digital transformation; Economic cohesion, productivity and competitiveness; Social and territorial cohesion; Health, economic, social and institutional resilience; Policies for the Next Generation ”. Meanwhile, final data from the German statistics office on Wednesday showed that consumer price inflation in Germany turned positive for the first time in seven months in January, as the temporary cut in value-added tax rates ended in December.
The consumer price index rose 1.0 percent year-on-year after a 0.3 percent decline in December. The Census Bureau confirmed the preliminary estimates released on January 28. Positive inflation was last seen in June 2020, when prices rose 0.9 per cent.
---------- Post added 11-02-2021 at 06:42 PM ---------- Previous post was 10-02-2021 at 07:18 PM ----------
Update Feb 11th 2021
The British Pound fell slightly yesterday after negative statements made by the President of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who said that the United Kingdom will not take a step to easing regulatory restrictions on the British economy after the formal implementation of Brexit, and added that the British government does not have to. Easing regulatory restrictions because this exposes the financial system to severe risks, and pointed out that there are still problems after the implementation of Brexit, most notably the demands of the European Union to London, which outweigh the demands of any other member state. On the other side of the Japanese economy, today is a Japanese bank holiday due to the National Foundation Day holiday in Japan.
Technically, the pound yen has almost rebounded from the downtrend levels on the weekly frame at 145.00 levels, and now targets the first support levels at 142.30 levels, then the uptrend levels at 140.00 levels.
The pair declined during the Asian session today, Thursday, for the fifth consecutive day, in light of the scarcity of economic data from Canada. On the other side of the US economy, we await today the weekly unemployment benefits, and then, at an unspecified time, the monetary policy report issued by the Federal Reserve.
On the technical front, the Canadian dollar declined in an attempt to retest the broken downtrend levels almost at 1.2640 levels, from which we can wait for any signs of a reversal, such as any reversal candles or divergence on small frames. It is possible to start buying the pair from the current levels due to the closing of yesterday's candlestick Bin Bar suggesting the possibility of a correction to the upside.
The pound-franc pair retreated during the Asian session after the negative statements of the President of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, yesterday, as he said that the United Kingdom will not take a step to ease regulatory restrictions on the British economy after the formal implementation of the exit from the European Union, and added that the British government does not It must ease regulatory restrictions because this exposes the financial system to severe risks, and he pointed out that there are still problems after the implementation of Brexit, most notably the demands of the European Union to London, which outweigh the demands of any other member state.
Technically, the pound-franc pair retreated today after recording its highest level in nearly 11 months last Friday after it broke through the strong resistance levels of 1.2200, which has now turned into support against the pair, where we expect the pair to retreat to levels of 1.2200 as a kind of correction before rebounding from it again. To the upside, to target the downtrend levels at 1.2750
The direction of gold is not clear because of its stability on its past levels, and due to the great fluctuation, but we see that there are strong resistance levels that could force it to fall, in the event that the price remains below the levels of the resistance line and the 200 Moving levels at 1875 and stability below them is an opportunity to sell with targets that reach To 1800 as a first target, but in the event that they are breached and closed above them, any idea of a drop will be canceled, and the rise will be the next direction.
Oil retreated despite a positive report from the International Energy Agency.
Dollar rises against currencies after Jerome Powell's updates.
Michel Barnier eliminates the possibility of re-negotiating Brexit.
1:- Oil retreated despite a positive report from the International Energy Agency.
Oil trading fell after enjoying the longest streak of gains in two years on the back of production cuts. The vaccine launch and the United States' hopes for a stimulus.
International Energy Agency: Oil demand will grow 5.4 million barrels per day in 2021. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil demand will increase by 5.4 million barrels per day to 96.4 million barrels per day in 2021, but that demand will decrease by one million barrels per day in the first quarter compared to the last three months of 2020. In The report was released on Thursday. In addition, the International Energy Agency said supplies increased 590,000 bpd to 93.6 million bpd in January.
The International Energy Agency expects global supplies to decline in February as Saudi Arabia announced deep production cuts. The agency added that the implicit global withdrawals increased from 1.56 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2020 to 2.24 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2020, with the decline of industry stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for the fifth month in a row.
2:- Dollar rises against currencies after Jerome Powell's updates.
The dollar traded higher a day after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, as he emphasized that the United States is still far from a "strong" job market. Speaking at an event hosted by the Economic Club in New York, Powell reiterated that the Fed will do "everything in its power to boost employment", warning that the labor market recovery has been "stalled" over the past months.
On the other hand, Powell warned that the Fed alone could not bring about the needed change, and emphasized that a common answer, including assistance from the government and the private sector, would be necessary. In the same context, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, on Wednesday, that the crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic is different from the crises that the country's economy had an opportunity to overcome.
3:- Michel Barnier eliminates the possibility of re-negotiating Brexit.
The pound traded mixed after Michel Barnier, chief European Union negotiator on Brexit, said on Thursday that there would be no talks on potential changes to a post-Brexit trade agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom.
“The negotiations are over, and there are no new negotiations” Barnier said at the European Business Summit. I hope once again that the competition, while respecting the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the independence of the European Union, will remain free and fair and I recommend that. ” He also confirmed that a few weeks or months would be needed at least to amend the Brexit deal. The EU official stressed that “the national authorities in the European Union will be very vigilant in the coming weeks. I recommend everyone to be careful. ”
The Canadian dollar rose during the Asian session on Friday for the second day in a row. Technically, the Canadian dollar rose during trading today, Friday, as we expected after the reversal of the two candlesticks Bin Bar closed, suggesting the possibility of a correction to the upside, as we target levels of 1.2950 as a first target, then 1.3050 as a second target, with the possibility of buying again in case of any downward correction, while maintaining a stop around 1.2610.
The Euro-Canadian pair rose during the Asian session today, Friday, amid the scarcity of economic data in the last sessions of the week from the euro zone. Today, we expect only news from the Canadian economy, which is the monthly retail sales and expectations are for a decline from 0.7% to -1.6%.
Technically, we are initially rising to target the minor downtrend at 1.5500 levels, which corresponds to the 50 & 100 moving averages. Where we can buy the pair with any downside correction or better, wait for the breakout of the sub-downtrend with the moving averages and enter a buy deal with the aim of the levels of the main downtrend , approximately at 1.5660.
The dollar-franc, rose during the Asian session on Friday, with the end of the week’s trading, despite the Swiss consumer price increase this morning. On the other side of the US economy, today we await the preliminary reading of inflation expectations and consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.
On the technical front, the dollar franc rose today, trying to reach the levels of retesting the broken uptrend on the four-hour frame, which corresponds to a foundation on a downtrend and the 50 & 100 moving averages on the 4-hour frame at around 0.8945 levels, from which we can sell the pair to target 0.8850 levels Then 0.8820, maintaining a stop at these levels.
Gold prices fell this morning to new levels, looking at the weekly frame, we see that it is trading within a bearish price pattern, which is the descending triangle, now there are no support levels before the lower side of the triangle at prices of 1785, if it is broken and closing below it, there will be a decline and collapse of the price of gold Goals reach 1700, but in the event that it remains above these levels, it may start rising to 1875 again.
The dollar rose as a safe haven amid coronavirus fears.
Von der Leyen: EU countries will receive relief by mid-2021.
1:- UK Gross domestic product (GDP) has slowed.
The pound traded mixed after data showing the UK's GDP slowing. According to the Office for National Statistics on Friday, compared to a limited recovery in the third quarter. GDP grew by 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The third quarter recorded an average growth of 16.1 percent.
Despite two consecutive quarters of growth, the UK's level of GDP is still 6.6 per cent lower than it was in the fourth quarter, before the pandemic. The service sector output rose by only 0.6 percent. The production sector rose 1.8 percent and industrial production increased 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Construction production grew by 4.6 percent, and farm production at 0.7 percent. The data showed that the economy recorded its largest annual decline on record in 2020, as GDP fell 9.9%. The four sub-sectors recorded an annual decline.
2:- The dollar rose as a safe haven amid coronavirus fears.
The dollar traded higher while stocks fell on Wall Street in futures trading on Friday as the Coronavirus pandemic continued to raise concerns among investors, as it tended to slow recovery from the crisis caused by the virus. United States President Joe Biden claimed that the country's recovery from the crisis depends largely on containing the spread of Covid-19, stressing that the "first job" of his administration is still fighting the epidemic.
On the economic front, the US Congressional Budget Office said that the state budget deficit is expected to reach $2.3 trillion in 2021. This figure represents a decrease compared to a deficit of $3.13 trillion in 2020, although it does not include a potential $1.9 trillion. A stimulus package proposed by Democrats could raise this year's deficit to more than $4 trillion.
3:- Von der Leyen: EU countries will receive relief by mid-2021.
The euro’s trading was mixed after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on Friday that EU member states should receive a subsidy from the next-generation EU fund by the middle of this year.
Von der Leyen stated: “The Facilitation of Recovery and Resilience in Europe has been approved! Now let's move forward quickly. European Union countries need to ratify the private resources decision and present strong national plans. Then the money will start to flow to boost Europe's recovery. ”Last July, the European Council approved a massive 750 billion euro recovery fund after several days of complicated negotiations
The EUR-USD pair rose during the Asian session on Monday, as we have a holiday for US banks today. On the other side of the Eurozone today we have all day Eurogroup meetings. Today we also have the trade balance, then industrial production on a monthly basis.
On the technical front, the EUR-USD pair rose again during the trading session last week, after its rebound from the Cluster levels shown on the chart. The pair was also unable to close a weekly candle below this uptrend, as we are still looking for more bullishness on the pair towards 1.2260 levels as a primary target.
The dollar-franc pair retreated during the Asian session today, Monday, after declines at the end of the week in light of scarcity of economic data today from the US and Swiss economies. The pair retreated from the levels of the downtrend with a retest of the broken uptrend levels on the four-hour frame, where we expect further declines for the pair, especially in the event of a break of the sub-uptrend on the hourly frame and closing below 0.8888 at least an hour candle, which will give the pair a push to complete a decline with targets At 0.8850 levels as a primary target, then 0.8820 as a second target.
The Australian-Canadian pair rose during the Asian session today, Monday, with the beginning of the week’s trading, as we have little data, and today we await Canadian manufacturing sales. On the other side of Australia, we await the results of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with the start of trading tomorrow, Tuesday.
Technically, the Australian Canadian pair rose today after the pair breached the downtrend on the four-hour frame, but we are waiting for a re-test of this trend near 0.9820 levels, and from there we expect the pair to rise towards the resistance at 0.9890.
Gold prices are still under great pressure from the dollar, and the gradual decline began with the opening of the markets on Monday morning, now as we see on the daily frame that gold is trading within a descending triangle, if the price breaks the levels of the lower side of this triangle at prices of 1767 and closing below it is a strong opportunity For sale with targets up to 1725, but in the event that it remains above these levels, a gradual rise is the next trend.
The trade surplus in the euro zone rose to a record high.
UK Prime Minister Johnson: We aim to reopen as soon as possible.
Oil rose more than 1% following stimulus optimism.
1:- The trade surplus in the euro zone rose to a record high.
The euro traded higher after data from the euro-zone, indicating an increase in the trade surplus and a decline in industrial production.
The trade surplus in the euro zone rose to a record high, data from Eurostat on Monday showed that the eurozone trade surplus rose to a record high in December, driven by an increase in exports. The trade surplus increased to 27.5 billion euros, seasonally adjusted, from 24.9 billion euros in November. Eurostat said this was the largest surplus recorded during the period for which data is available. Exports grew 1.1 percent month-on-month, while imports were down 0.3 percent from November.
On an annual basis, exports increased for the first time since February 2020. Exports increased 2.3 percent, while imports decreased 1.3 percent. As a result, the trade surplus increased to 29.2 billion euros from 22.6 billion euros in the same period last year.
2:- UK Prime Minister Johnson: We aim to reopen as soon as possible.
Pound trading jumped after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that the government will set the earliest target date for reopening the country if the coronavirus situation allows it.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Sunday that the government's goal of covering the four highest-priority groups set with at least one of two doses of coronavirus vaccines has now been met by mid-February.
"We have to be very careful and what we want to see is progress that is restricted but irreversible," Johnson said, adding that the government "will try to develop a roadmap to get out of the lockdown." Earlier in the day, Health Secretary Matt Hancock stated that Johnson should announce the decision to close COVID-19 next week.
The United Kingdom has achieved a milestone in delivering the first doses of COVID-19 vaccines to 15 million people. This raised hopes for a faster recovery from the epidemic.
3:- Oil rose more than 1% following stimulus optimism.
Oil trading rose more than 1% on Monday amid positive sentiment driven by hopes of stimulus. That the US Congress submit a new $ 1.9 trillion relief package before the end of the month.
Regarding the oil market outlook, the latest OPEC report last week lowered the demand forecast due to the expanded lockdown measures related to the Coronavirus. At the time, OPEC said it expected demand to rebound in the second half of the year with support from stimulus programs, such as this one in the United States.
---------- Post added 16-02-2021 at 09:49 AM ---------- Previous post was 15-02-2021 at 08:05 PM ----------
Update Feb 16th 2021 (Early Analysis and News)
Euro-dollar prices are trading almost at their past levels, which are very important and pivotal levels, in case the price breaches the intersection levels of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern and the Moving release 200 levels at 1.2150 and closing above them is a strong opportunity for further upside with targets reaching 1.2210 as a first target. Its survival below these levels, the decline and selling are the strongest.
The Australian-dollar price fell to its lowest levels during the past trading, and it is now stabilizing at the lower side of the rectangle, in the event that the price remains above these levels at 1.2615 prices and stability above it is an opportunity to buy with targets reaching 1.2675 as a first target, but in the event that the price breaks these levels and closes Below them, the downside and selling are the next trend for the pair.
The dollar-yen price rose strongly during the past hours, and as it was expected, it is now trading below the strong resistance levels, in the event that the price remains below the strong resistance line levels and Moving release levels 200 at 105.55 and stability below them is a strong opportunity to sell with targets up to 105.00 as a first target But in the event that it is breached and closed above it, buying will be the master of the situation.
Gold prices remain within the consolidation area without a major change in prices. Now, as we see on the daily frame, gold is following the descending triangle pattern, it may reach the levels of the lower side of the triangle at 1767 levels as a first target, especially since it is below the MAV 200 levels. In the event that the price breaks out, this moving average will reach the highest levels of 1900.
The dollar declines during the first day of the week.
Pre-market rise in Europe ahead of the data.
1:- Platinum rose 3%, the highest level since 2014.
Precious metals rose except for gold as the price of platinum rose by more than 3% on Monday as demand for the metal rose across the auto industry as more manufacturers switched to producing electric cars.
Jaguar to be fully electric by 2025: Jaguar Land Rover CEO Thierry Bolloré announced plans Monday for Jaguar to become a luxury all-electric brand by 2025, while Land Rover will launch six all-electric models over the next five years.
2:- The dollar declines during the first day of the week.
The dollar’s trading declined with the dollar index retreating amid optimism about the planned Covid-19 vaccine launch of $ 1.9 trillion. Stimulus package. Reports suggest the $ 1.9 trillion proposal could be watered down, but the final figure could be closer to the president's plan.
Biden opens the Obama Care window for 3 months:
United States President Joe Biden announced Monday that it will open a three-month registration period for Americans to register with Federal Health Insurance under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obama Care.
The decision comes as part of Biden's US rescue plan, which will also "increase federal benefits and reduce premiums" and encourage states "to extend coverage to an additional four million low-income people." The United States recorded 64,938 new cases of COVID-19 and 1,088 deaths related to the Coronavirus over the past day, according to Johns Hopkins' updated data on Monday. With the latest update, the total number has now reached 27.64 million cases and 485337 deaths so far. In the same period, more than 331 million tests were performed.
3:- Pre-market rise in Europe ahead of the data.
European stocks traded higher, focusing on the upcoming economic data today. Meanwhile, European Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said over the weekend that the European Medicines Agency will speed up approval of Covid-19 vaccines.
In the same context, the German Economy Ministry said on Monday that the restrictions of the Corona virus in Germany will continue to burden the economy. She explained that about the expected period of time, the effect will continue until the first quarter of 2021.
The ministry said in a statement that "the industry will remain less affected by measures to restrict the Corona virus compared to the spring of 2020." Adding that "the expectations of the industrial economy remain cautious in light of the epidemic bottlenecks and the supply of semiconductors." Record that "the outlook for German exports is cautiously positive given the reduced impact of the closure on the industry."
The Canadian-dollar pair retreated with the beginning of trading during the Asian session yesterday, before it rose with the beginning of the European period, and we have today from Canada the data of foreign purchases of securities. On the other hand, we expect from the US economy and at the same time the manufacturing index for the state of New York, then a speech by Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve Committee, followed by a speech by Daly, a member of the Federal Reserve, and finally with the purchases of long-term securities at eleven in the evening
Technically, the Canadian dollar pair rebounded from the levels of retesting the broken downtrend today, trying to form a level on the Daily frame, and we can buy the pair now cautiously to target levels of 1.2850, then 1.2950 and finally 1.3050.
The Canadian-Yen pair rose during the Asian session yesterday, Tuesday, before the pair began to decline again, and this has been followed by the Japanese economy disclosure of industrial sector data, which showed a contraction of the decline to 0.4% compared to the previous reading, and this came after the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on the fact that the Japanese central bank is going ahead with the expansionary monetary policy to support the performance of his country's economy.
On the technical front, The Canadian-Yen pair rose near the upper bound of the rising price channel on the Daily Frame, as the pair approached the resistance levels of 83.85. I expect the pair to retreat from these levels, especially if the reversal candle closes today, rebounding from the boundary of the price channel, from which I expect the pair to reach levels 82.15 then 81.60.
The euro-dollar prices decreased with the strength of the dollar against all foreign currencies, and the prices have broken very important levels, now in the event that the price remains below the 200-release Moving Cross levels and the resistance line levels at 1.2085 and stability below them is a strong opportunity to sell with targets up to 1.2045 and then we will see levels 1.2020 as a second target, the stop loss would be to close the candle above the mentioned levels again.
The Euro-Yen pair rose during the Asian session yesterday, Tuesday, and was followed up by the Japanese economy revealing the industrial sector data, which showed a decline of 0.4% compared to the previous reading, and this came after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed that the Japanese central bank is going ahead in The expansionary monetary policy to support the performance of his country's economy.
On the other side of the Eurozone, some positive data was released this morning, represented by the ZEW index of German and European economic confidence, as well as the positive reading of the preliminary quarterly GDP, better than expectations, but less than last quarter, with the decline in the preliminary reading of the quarterly employment change.
From a technical point of view, The Euro-Yen pair rose during today's trading near a retest of the broken uptrend at 128.20 levels, which could push the pair for some corrections towards 127.10 levels as a primary target at the uptrend levels on the four-hour frame.
Biden expands protection of homeowners from the Coronavirus.
GBP continues to rally amid anti-Corona efforts progressing.
Eurozone GDP fell for the fourth quarter.
1:- Biden expands protection of homeowners from the Coronavirus.
The dollar's trading declined as the developments of the Corona virus continued around the world and in the United States of America. The White House announced on Tuesday that President Joe Biden will extend the ban on federally backed mortgage foreclosures until the end of June. In addition, the president's actions would bring the deadline to register for mortgage payments, and provide up to six months of additional deductibility.
The statement included:
“President Biden is committed to protecting home ownership and housing stability as America begins to turn a painful crisis into a strong recovery. Today's extended patience and foreclosure programs are an important step towards building stronger and more equitable societies.”
Covid-19 cases in the United States drop to their lowest levels in early October:
The United States recorded 52,685 new infections, down -19 and 985 coronavirus-related deaths over the past day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University updated Tuesday. The latest numbers represent the lowest daily numbers since early October, indicating that vaccination efforts are helping the government regain control of the epidemic. Alongside the Coronavirus, Texas citizens are struggling to cope with the cold winter weather that has reached the coast, with 2.5 million households temporarily losing electricity.
2:- GBP continues to rally amid anti-Corona efforts progressing.
Pound trading rose after British Vaccination Minister Nadhim Al-Zahawi revealed, on Tuesday, that the government will provide Covid-19 vaccine certificates to residents if other countries request it.
Al-Zahawi repeated: “We are not looking at the domestic use of vaccine passports. This is not in our plans. As the Prime Minister described, it will be the national vaccination program along with the rapid tests which I think are the way forward. ” Interview with BBC.
The minister concluded that about 32 million Britons should be vaccinated with at least one vaccine dose by May. According to official data, around 15 million people have been vaccinated in the UK so far.
3:- Eurozone GDP fell for the fourth quarter.
The Euro increased in trading despite negative Euro-Zone GDP data for the fourth quarter, while economic sentiment in the Euro-Zone increased in February. The Eurozone economy contracted by a less-than-expected 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the previous third, according to the Eurostat preliminary report published on Tuesday.
In the European Union as a whole, GDP decreased by 0.4% in the same period. On an annualized basis, the seasonally adjusted GDP for the Eurozone declined by 5.0%, while the decline ceased at 4.8% in the European Union. The numbers also represent better than expected results.
Center for European Economic Research: Economic sentiment rose in the Eurozone in February. In other data, economic sentiment improved in the euro-zone in February, as the index measures a rise to 69.6, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) said on Tuesday. The index of the current economic situation rose 4.3 points to minus 74.6 points.
---------- Post added 18-02-2021 at 10:32 AM ---------- Previous post was 17-02-2021 at 10:34 AM ----------
Update Feb 18th 2021
The dollar-yen pair declined during the Asian session for the first time in six sessions to reflect a rebound from the top in five months, as investors are currently waiting for the US economy to unveil the retail sales index reading, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the states' GDP.
On the technical front, the dollar-yen pair retreated during today's trading after the pair completed the harmonic Shark pattern at around 106.00 resistance levels, where we expect the pair to make further declines towards the uptrend levels on the almost daily frame at 105.00, which with a break will open the way for more declines towards 103.80.
The New Zealand-dollar pair declined during the Asian session today, in light of the scarcity of economic data from New Zealand, and we are waiting for today for the US economy to reveal the retail sales index reading, which represents about half of the consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the United States, which coincides with The disclosure of the reading of the producer price index, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures.
From a technical point of view, the pair retreated near the lower bound of the ascending price channel, which represents the uptrend on the four hour frame, it could push the pair up again towards the resistance levels at 0.7245.
The Australian-Canadian pair rose during the Asian session today, after the Australian economy released a reading of the leading indicators by the Melbourne Institute, which showed an acceleration of growth to 0.3%, and this comes hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed on Tuesday the minutes of its meeting, during which it was Maintaining interest rates at the lowest level ever at 0.10%, which came in line with expectations, and monetary policy makers at the Australian Central Bank touched through the minutes yesterday that there is a need for monetary support for some time, and we await tomorrow dawn of Australian unemployment and jobs data.
Technically, the pair rebounded to the upside after rebounding from the levels of retesting the broken downtrend on the four-hour frame, and we still expect more bullishness for the pair to target the resistance levels 0.9890.
Gold prices fell again against the US dollar during recent trading, as we see on the daily frame that gold is walking in a descending triangle and is very close to its lower side, in the event that the price breaks the levels of the lower side of the triangle pattern at prices of 1765 and the closing below it is an opportunity to sell with targets up to 1725, but if it remains above the aforementioned levels, the upside is the next trend.
Mixed trading on GBP after inflation data release.
The dollar diverged against the major currencies during trading yesterday on Wednesday.
Gold continues to decline in conjunction with the rise of the dollar.
1:- Mixed trading on GBP after inflation data release.
The pound traded mixed after data from the Office for National Statistics showed that UK consumer price inflation rose in January, driven by rising costs of household goods, restaurants and food. Consumer price inflation rose slightly to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent in December. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, after rising 0.3 percent a month ago. Monthly output price inflation doubled to 0.4% from 0.2% in December. Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the core inflation rate settled at 1.4% in January, while it was expected to slow to 1.3%.
Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, said:
"We still believe that factors such as declining oil prices, the effects of a strong pound, and the legacy of excess capacity will lead to inflation falling below 2% in 2022."
2:- The dollar diverged against the major currencies during trading on Wednesday.
The dollar’s trading was mixed as investors watched Biden talk with conservatives about severe hurricanes. Investors also followed the statements of US Fed members about the state of the economy. In this context, Kansas City Fed Chair Esther George said on Tuesday that she does not see problems with inflation changes in the near term. Although it expects price pressure as people return to work after the pandemic.
A Fed official did not express concern about the rise in long-term yields, saying that it did not reflect tightening financial conditions. Kansas City Fed Chair Esther George also expressed her concerns Tuesday that although federal programs have been able to contain mortgage pressures, the country could fall into severe stress when aid ends and the post-pandemic era begins. .
She also noted that single-family housing in the United States is "booming" and will remain strong for some time. Although people are moving away from cities to work remotely, the risks of long-term demographic change arise. According to George, the coronavirus remains the driver of the economy, as its vaccination programs and logistics continue to pose significant risks. In general, the outlook for the second half of 2021 is optimistic for the Fed official.
3:- Gold continues to decline in conjunction with the rise of the dollar.
Gold trades declined as the precious metal continued to trade in red during today's trading. The decline in gold coincided with a strong rise in global bond yields, in a move indicating an increase in risk appetite. The 10-year US Treasury yields 1.3 percent for the first time in nearly a year, driven by mounting inflationary concerns on the back of a successful vaccine launch and prospects for further stimulus.
Member of the Federal Reserve: Inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% target within a year
On inflation, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, said on Wednesday that if there is a problem with inflation, "the Federal Reserve will take care of it." Although Rosengren would be surprised if the sustained inflation rate hits the Fed's 2% target within the next year or two. He also mentioned that key inflation gauges are now "very low". Rosengren added that the creation of the payroll was very low in January and the US still had "a lot to do" to fix the labor market and the current "very large" gap.
The Australian-dollar pair rose during the Asian session yesterday after the release of data from Australia at dawn today, as unemployment rates fell 6.6% to 6.4% better than expectations that were indicating to 6.5%, while jobs came less than expected, as 29.1 thousand jobs were added in When expectations were to add 30.2 thousand jobs.
Technically, the Australian dollar pair rebounded to the upside after the pair retested the broken downtrend levels nearly at 0.7745 levels, and from there it started to the upside in an attempt to reach the next resistance levels at 0.7817 levels, which in the event that it breaks through with a candle a day will open the way for more ascension towards levels 0.7900 then 0.8000.
The Pound-Yen pair rose slightly during the Asian session today, in light of the scarcity of economic data from Japan today. On the other side of the British economy, we have only news, represented by a speech by Sanders, a member of the Bank of England, and we await today the retail sales and then the preliminary reading of the British PMI.
From a technical point of view, the pound-yen pair rose today in an attempt to complete the wave on the daily frame near 148.60 levels, from which it is possible to start building selling positions on the pair to target the uptrend levels around 145.50 levels.
The franc-yen pair fluctuated during the Asian session yesterday, amid the scarcity of economic data from the Japanese economy and also the Swiss economy.
On the technical level, the franc yen pair is trading at the top of the uptrend levels on the four-hour frame, as well as the 50-day moving average, from which we expect the pair to rebound from this trend towards 118.40 levels. As for the breach of 117.50 levels and a close below it, we could witness some reversals, towards 117.00 levels, at least.
Gold prices rose during the Asian session yesterday, after 5 days of retreating as the markets are looking forward to the developments of the ongoing discussions between the White House and Congress, which aim to reach an agreement on the stimulus package announced by US President Joe Biden in advance and to launch it the "American rescue plan" at the value of $ 1.9 trillion dollars.
Technically, gold prices rebounded near the support levels of $ 1766 an ounce, which pushed gold to reach levels of $ 1788 as a kind of correction as breaking the support is a matter of time, as the area of 1700 to 1670 dollars an ounce is considered an area of attraction for gold, from which it is possible to start building Purchasing centers in the medium and long term. Therefore, if the level of $1766 is broken with a daily candlestick, it is likely that gold will decline to target levels of 1700, from which we can start buying gold until levels of 1670 dollars, which corresponds to the existence of an uptrend with the 100-day moving average.
Euro rises and European markets close in the red.
GBP rallies amid reports of easing the lockdown in the UK.
Oil rises amid an unexpected drop in US crude reserves.
1:- Euro rises and European markets close in the red.
The euro traded higher as stocks in major European stock markets tumbled at the closing bell on Thursday as weak quarterly financial reports issued by several major companies ahead of the opening drove shares in negative territory. Daimler recorded an 11% year-on-year decline in revenue in 2020, while Barclays' earnings per share declined 68% year-over-year in the fourth fiscal quarter.
On the economic front, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders claimed that he expects the UK unemployment rate to rise to “around 7%”, adding that five million jobs have already been lost since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic. On the European level as well, European Trade Commissioner Valdes Dombrowskis said on Thursday that he had "intensive and constructive talks" with the new Italian government regarding the country's recovery from the crisis caused by the Coronavirus pandemic.
2:- GBP rallies amid reports of easing the lockdown in the UK.
Pound rises amid reports that the UK lockdown was eased due to Covid-19 in a good sign about the economy. In this regard, the United Kingdom's Secretary of State for Social Welfare, Helen Whatley, on Monday called for patience amid the ongoing restrictions of the Corona virus in the country. She expressed optimism about "really good data" in terms of low infection rates, but warned that there were still more than 20,000 patients with Covid-19 in hospitals across the UK.
Whatley said in televised comments: “We need to take this step by step,” he said, adding that Prime Minister Boris Johnson “will lay out a roadmap” to ease the lockdown on Monday. She added that she hoped schools would reopen in the UK on March 8.
Labor leader Keir Starmer said Thursday that the UK economy needs serious and deep reforms and cannot "return to business as usual" once the coronavirus pandemic is over. The head of the British opposition stressed that the United Kingdom needs a new historic chapter based on "security, prosperity and opportunity". Starmer likened his call to action to Labor's post-war reform efforts in 1945, and said people now expect more from their government.
3:- Oil rises amid an unexpected drop in US crude reserves.
Oil trading rose about 1% on Thursday after special data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil inventories.
On Wednesday, special data showed that US crude inventories fell more than analysts had expected last week. According to media reports, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said in its weekly report that US crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, reserves at the industry center in Cushing, Oklahoma fell by 3 million barrels.
The report also showed an increase of 3.9 million barrels in gasoline stocks, while distillate stocks decreased by 3.5 million barrels. Traders are now awaiting official numbers from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) scheduled for Thursday.
The EUR-USD pair rose during the Asian session on Friday after mixed data this morning from the euro zone between positive and negative.
Technically, the EUR-USD pair rose in an attempt to breach the resistance levels of 1.2165, which also represent the neck levels of the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily frame, and therefore if it breaks through with a candle today, the pair will be buying with the opening of next week's trading, targeting 1.2300 levels, which represent the target of the head and shoulders.
The dollar-yen pair declined during the Asian session last Friday, after the Japanese inflation data, represented by the annual reading of the national consumer price index, which showed a contraction of the deflation to 0.6% compared to 1.2%. %
Technically, the dollar yen pair retreated as expected at the resistance levels around 106.00, where we expect the pair to make more declines towards the uptrend levels on the daily frame almost at 105.00 to 104.80, as breaking this trend will open the way for more declines in the pair towards levels 103.80
The Pound-New Zealand pair retreated during the Asian session last Friday, and the decline intensified with the beginning of the European period after negative data from Britain, represented by retail sales, which fell by -8.2%, more than expectations that indicated a decline of -0.3% only, despite The release of positive data, which was followed by the preliminary reading of the British service and manufacturing index, but the pair is still on the decline, as we await at one o'clock in the afternoon the CBI index for expectations of industrial orders.
On the technical front, the pair declined after the pair had negative divergence on the four-hour MACD indicator, as it is now trading near the uptrend levels, which, by breaking it, and closing below the four-hour candle will open room for more declines for the pair to target 1.9180 then 1.9090 levels.
Gold prices fell in a new way during last Friday, and reached their lowest levels in months, now if the price breaks the levels of the lower leg of the descending triangle pattern at the prices of 1765 and the closing below it is a strong opportunity to drop with targets up to 1725 as a first target, but if it remains above the levels The aforementioned, so the possibility that he will start correcting up is very likely.
British Pound rallies after services PMI data release.
Janet Yellen: "The American economy is emerging from a deep hole".
1:- Oil falls due to fears of an increase in supply.
Oil trading declined to extend its losses from the previous session, as the severe freeze in Texas closed refineries, which reduced the demand for crude oil in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs said in a note that it was seeing minimal impact on oil prices from the big freeze in the southern US. Report added "While the overall impacts on supply and demand are significant, they are mostly offsetting, and most importantly they are temporary, leading to minimal impacts on global oil prices, leaving risks for another reversal in this week's rally."
Investors were also concerned about a looming increase in crude oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its OPEC + allies. With the continuing stability in Libya, and the improvement of US-Iranian relations after Badin took power. On the other hand, media reports indicate that Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil production in the coming months amid a recovery in prices. After the world's largest oil exporter surprised oil markets last month when it said it would unilaterally cut one million barrels per day of crude production in February.
2:- British Pound rallies after services PMI data release.
The pound rallied after data showed that the British Composite Product Index rose compared to the previous month, to 49.8 points, better than expected in February. It reached its highest level in two months, IHS Markit said in its initial report published on Friday. The report pointed out that the result "indicated generally stable levels of private sector production in the United Kingdom compared to those we witnessed in January."
The services business activity index rose to its highest level in 4 months at 49.7 points, to close at 50.0, the no change threshold. The report on the results said: “Service sector activity continued to be severely affected by the Coronavirus epidemic, with declining production levels due to severe restrictions on travel, entertainment and hospitality.” On the other hand, the Industrial Production Index fell to a 9-month low of 50.5 points, while the Manufacturing PMI grew slightly to 54.9, its highest level in two months. “Manufacturing companies often cited severe supply chain disruptions as a factor holding back production volumes,” the report said.
3:- Janet Yellen: "The American economy is emerging from a deep hole".
The dollar traded lower as investors followed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments on Thursday. She said that the US economy is "emerging from a deep hole." Speaking to CNBC, she indicated that the unemployment rate would be close to 10% "if measured correctly."
Regarding the upcoming stimulus package, Yellin said she hoped to see progress in "getting" the law operational. It revealed that President Joe Biden had discussed the matter with lawmakers from both major political parties. And confirmed "I think the price of doing less is much higher" than doing a lot, adding that inflation is a "risk", but the potential damage to the labor market is a greater risk. Regarding incentive laws, Yellen stressed that they "need to be appropriate and targeted" in order to help the people who need it most.
---------- Post added 23-02-2021 at 10:10 AM ---------- Previous post was 22-02-2021 at 11:07 AM ----------
Update Feb 23rd 2021 Analysis, news and remarks from yesterday.
The EUR-USD pair declined during the Asian session yesterday, Monday, with the beginning of the week's trading, as the final reading of the German IFO Business Climate Index was released shortly ago, and we are also awaiting the monthly report of the German Federal Bank.
Technically, the pair declined slightly during today's trading, but it is not far from the range of resistance expected to be breached at 1.2165 levels, which also represent the neck levels of the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily frame as I have mentioned in my previous analysis.
The Pound-Yen pair rose during the Asian session yesterday, Monday, in light of the scarcity of economic data from Britain today, and on the other side of the Japanese economy, we followed today the Bank of Japan unveiled the annual reading of the services price index, which showed the expansion of the contraction from 0.3% to 0.5% worse than expectations It indicated that the contraction has widened to 0.4%.
On the technical front, the pair rose during today's trading as we expected. We can start building selling positions from these levels at a very low risk due to the strength of the upside, and it is preferable to wait for any reversal signal from these selling levels, as we target 145.50 levels as a primary target.
The Franc-Yen pair declined during the Asian session yesterday, Monday in light of the scarcity of economic data from Switzerland, and on the other side of the Japanese economy, today the annual reading of the services price index was released, which showed the expansion of the contraction from 0.3% to 0.5%, worse than expectations that indicated the expansion of the deflation to 0.4%.
Technically, the Franc-Yen pair retreated after the pair broke the sub-uptrend levels and retested it successfully, and the pair is now trying to reach the next uptrend almost at 117.00 levels, from which it is possible to witness some upside with any reversal candlesticks towards 117.55 levels again. In the event that the trend is broken directly, which is likely, then the pair may target 116.60 levels, then the main uptrend on the Daily Frame at 116.25 levels.
Gold prices rose this morning after the big drop that occurred last week, gold could not break the lower levels of the triangle, as we can see on the daily frame that gold is trading within a bearish price pattern, there will be no drop except by breaking the lower leg levels at 1765 levels and closing below them Otherwise, the rise and correction will be the new path for this week.
Asian markets fell at the beginning of the weekly trading.
The Australian Prime Minister starts his Corona vaccination campaign.
European markets fell amid uncertainty.
1:- Asian markets fell at the beginning of the weekly trading.
Asian stocks declined, as investors focused mainly on vaccination against Covid-19. And economic recovery from the crisis caused by the virus. Over the weekend, Russia approved the third coronavirus vaccine, and granted emergency use permission to Kovivac developed by the Federal Chumakov Science Center. On the other hand, the Victor Institute's EpiVacCorona provides immunity for one year against the virus, according to Institute President Renate Maxoto.
2:- The Australian Prime Minister starts his Corona vaccination campaign.
The Australian dollar rose in trading after the start of its nationwide vaccination campaign. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was injected with the first dose of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine with Paul Kelly, the country's chief medical officer. He said, "Here we bring up some very important points. It is safe, it is important, and we have to start with those who are most vulnerable and on the front line.” Two politicians were among the first to receive vaccinations as the nation began its vaccination program. About 4 million Australians are expected to receive their first vaccine by March.
3:- European markets fell amid uncertainty.
European stocks declined after shares were traded in the main European stock market indices in red on Monday. As investors continued to monitor the state of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world and across the old continent. While British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that a vaccine will be offered to all adults in the UK by August, the mayor of Nice requested to tighten measures to contain the coronavirus in order to limit the spread of the virus among visitors to the seventh largest of France. City.
Meanwhile, the French Public Health Agency said, on Sunday, that the number of daily infections with the Coronavirus in France increased by 22046 cases during the past 24 hours, reaching a total of 3605181 cases. The number of deaths due to Covid-19 in France increased by 160 to a total of 84,306. The test-positive rate was 6.3%, while the number of hospitalized patients increased by 9362 patients during the past seven days.
Euro-dollar prices have risen to almost their highest levels during the last period, now the pair suffers from strong resistance levels, in the event that the price remains below the levels of the resistance line at 1.2170 prices and stability below it, there will be a strong opportunity to sell with targets up to 1.2060 as the first target for the decline. If it is breached and closed above it, any idea of a landing will be canceled, and the rise will be the new path.
The Canadian-Yen pair rose slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday, in light of the Japanese bank holiday today.
Technically, the Canadian-Yen pair is trading near the 1.8390 resistance levels that were able to push the pair down yesterday, as the pair is the lowest of the Cluster levels between 1.8385 to 1.8430. We expect it not to breach this area, and to return to retreat to target the support levels of 81.80 when retesting the broken downtrend levels. , And also building a base on strong uptrend levels for the weekly time frame.
The Australian-New Zealand pair retreated during trading yesterday, Tuesday, after the trade balance of Australian goods declined, and we await after today's close from Australia completed construction work and then the quarterly wage price index, followed by New Zealand and the most important news of the week with the New Zealand interest decision and expectations indicate its stability at 0.25%, then RNZ monetary policy statement followed by RBNZ press conference.
Technically, the Australian News pair retreated during today's trading, bouncing from the downtrend levels on the Daily Frame, and the pair is trying to form a reversal candle that will also help the pair to end this strong rise during the last period, and from which we can sell the pair from the current levels to target levels of 1.0580 then 1.036.
Gold prices rose this morning to new levels, and these prices are considered the highest during the past weeks after the recent drop, now in the event that the price remains above moving levels 200 and the support line levels at 1807 and holding above them is an opportunity to buy with targets up to 1820 as a first target and then We see levels of 1835 as a second target, but in the event of a close below the aforementioned levels, the decline and selling are stronger.
Australia: Exports decline as imports drop in January.
European markets rise before inflation data.
Johnson reveals England's exit path from lockdown.
1:- Australia: Exports decline as imports drop in January.
The Australian dollar was mixed after preliminary data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that Australia's exports declined in January, largely due to lower shipments of iron ore. On an annual basis, exports grew by 13 percent, while imports decreased by 7 percent in January.
Exports fell 9 percent month-on-month in January: Mineral ore exports decreased by 10 percent. Meat exports decreased by 39 percent. Coal exports decreased by 8%. Imports decreased by 10 percent from the previous month.
Data also showed that land-vehicle imports fell by 23 percent. General industrial machinery imports decreased by 16 percent. Miscellaneous manufactured articles imports decreased by 13 percent.
2:- European markets rise before inflation data.
European stocks rose in trading as shares in the main stock market indices in Europe were traded above the flat line. As investors follow data on the unemployment rate in the UK, as well as data on inflation for the euro zone, it is scheduled to come out after the opening bell.
Traders will also be watching the latest developments relating to the US Coronavirus Relief Bill, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the US Congress.
Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen on Monday urged the European Union to ratify the decision of private sources, and thus approve the financing of Next Generation, a package aimed at combating the crisis caused by the Coronavirus crisis.
3:- Johnson reveals England's exit path from lockdown.
The pound's trading varied a day after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the government's plan to get England out of the lockdown related to the Coronavirus, which has continued since the beginning of the year.
Johnson stated: “Shops and non-essential guesthouses will not reopen before April 12th, with mixing of boarding houses restricted until May 17th. People will be advised to work from home until June 21.”
Johnson also said, "The monthly review will be followed by the introduction of the Covid-19 vaccine, adding that the first vaccine dose must be offered to all adults in England by the end of July." A report released earlier today also revealed that schools would open on March 8, and outdoor gatherings of up to six people would be allowed as of March 29.
---------- Post added 25-02-2021 at 09:26 AM ---------- Previous post was 24-02-2021 at 11:30 AM ----------
Update Feb 25th 2021
The Euro-Australian pair declined during the beginning of the Asian session on Wednesday, before it rose again after wage prices in Australia grew better than expected, and then followed by the decline in construction work completed at the quarterly level.
On the other side of the Eurozone, the final quarterly German GDP reading rose yesterday morning, better than expected, and we also have an unspecified German 10-year bond auction.
Technically, the Euro-Australian rose, forming a reversal daily candle, so far, as the pair trades near the lower bound of the descending price channel in which the pair is walking on the daily frame, with a positive divergence on the MACD indicator and a strong monthly upward trend that the pair is trading above now. It is possible to buy the pair from the current prices and also if it reaches 1.5240 levels, targeting the upper bound of the descending price channel at 1.5600 resistance levels.
The franc-yen pair rose during the Asian session yesterday, Wednesday, with the Japanese yen declining against most of the major currencies today amid scarce economic data from the Japanese economy. On the other side of Switzerland, Credit Suisse's economic forecast was better than expected.
On the technical level, the franc-yen pair rose after achieving all our goals, the last of which was at 116.25 levels, where the pair then collided with the uptrend levels on the weekly frame, and now the pair is making some bullish corrections that we expect to be limited before retreating again and breaking this trend So, it is better to wait for a break of this trend with a candle at least for a day, and then go short, targeting 114.20, then 113.50, and finally at 110.00.
3:- CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices rose during trading on Wednesday, to resume gains that were temporarily halted yesterday in correction operations from the highest level in 13 months, after preliminary data showed a sudden rise in crude stocks in the United States, according to preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute.
Technically, oil prices rose again today, as we expected near the downtrend levels on the weekly frame and the resistance levels of $ 63.50 a barrel, as we came very close to our target at 63.00 levels after oil achieved a peak at $ 62.90 a barrel, and in the event that the resistance level of $ 63.50 is breached, we expect To go to the next target at $ 74.00 a barrel.
Gold prices are still trading close to their past levels after the recent rise, and there are very important levels that prevent gold from continuing to rise, in the event that the price remains below the levels of the downtrend and the levels of the resistance line at the prices of 1820 and stability below them is a strong opportunity to fall with targets up to 1775 as a first target, However, in the event of their penetration and closing above them, the upside will be the alternative scenario.
Oil rallies after early declines.
GBP rises during European trading.
German exports decline by half due to Russia's sanctions.
1:- Oil rallied after early declines.
Oil trading rose despite the American Petroleum Institute (API) announcement on Tuesday of an increase in crude oil inventories. However, hopes that the introduction of the vaccine will lead to a revival of demand. Oil was trading in red, after industry data showed an increase in crude oil inventories. By 1.026 million barrels in the week ending February 19.
In general, oil has risen during the last period, driven by a decrease in the volume of production. After cutting production by about one million barrels per day by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The flow of US crude oil refineries decreased by 2.2 million barrels per day, as the severe freeze resulted in the southern states.
2:- GBP rises during European trading.
Pound trading rose after the UK agreed to extend the European Union's ratification period for Brexit. British Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove confirmed, on Tuesday, that the UK has agreed to extend the time frame in which the European Union must ratify the EU Withdrawal Agreement until April 30th.
Goff told the European Commission’s Vice President for Corporate Relations, Maroš Šefčovič, that London had expected “no further delay”. The news comes after the European Union reportedly rejected Britain's proposal to extend the grace period for trade relations between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom for a two-year settlement.
3:- German exports decline by half due to Russia's sanctions.
The euro’s trading varied as investors watched a number of statements on the European level, especially from Germany. Michael Harms, head of the German Committee for Economic Relations in Eastern Europe, said on Wednesday that the European Union's sanctions against Russia had reduced German exports from 80 billion euros to 45 billion euros in 2020.
Harms stated that Germany was no longer a priority for Russia in terms of trade, as the latter focused on its relations with China. He added that this shift, along with sanctions, caused losses in exports of about 20%. Meanwhile, Saxony-Anhalt Finance Minister Karl Heinz Bach said that Germany's direct investments in Russia have remained stable.
This analysis comes after German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas commented that relations between Berlin and Moscow were at their lowest levels. Despite this, Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated that Germany will not impose new sanctions on Russia over issues related to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The EUR-USD pair rose during the Asian session on Thursday for the second consecutive day, especially with the release of the German GFK index of consumer climate better than expected this morning.
On the other side of the US economy, Fed Governor Jerome Powell's testimony yesterday on monetary policy was issued to Congress, stating that the US economy is far from employment and inflation targets, and that it will likely take time to achieve further progress, and that the Federal Reserve is committed to the monetary policy stance. The current expansionary and that it will communicate well with the markets before making future changes.
On the technical front, the EUR-USD pair rose strongly yesterday, breaching the resistance levels of 1.2165, which turned into support now, which also represent the neck levels of the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily frame, and our buying has been activated as we now target levels to target the levels of 20 / 1.2300 that represent the target of the head and shoulders Where we may see it before this week's close as long as we maintain these support levels.
The Euro-Australian pair fluctuated during the beginning of the Asian session on Thursday, before rising again after the release of the German GFK index of consumer climate.
Technically: the Euro-Australian pair fell strongly yesterday, as the pair approached our second entry near the lower bound of the descending price channel in which the pair is walking on the daily frame, with a strong monthly uptrend that the pair is still trading above until now. Whereas, in the event that the lower bound of the channel is reached at 1.5240 levels, we will buy the pair again targeting the upper bound of the descending channel at 1.5590 resistance levels.
The Australian-New Zealand pair rose during the Asian session today, Thursday, after two days of declines after fixing the New Zealand interest rate at 0.25% and then the monetary policy statement of the New Zealand Reserve, and we await with the start of the new day's trading from New Zealand also the speech of the Governor of the New Zealand Reserve Adrian Orr.
Technically, the pair retreated as we expected a bounce from the downtrend levels on the Daily Frame. Currently, the pair is making some bullish corrections, we expect them to be limited as long as we trade below this downtrend.
Gold prices retreated during the past hours after the recent rise, on the weekly frame there will be no descending triangle pattern, which tells us that there will be no strong decline except by breaking the levels of the lower triangle’s rib at the prices of 1765. 1700, but if it remains above these levels, it may return to 1830.
Asian stocks decline during the last weekly trading session.
Consumer confidence in the European Union improves in February.
US economy expected to grow by up to 5% in 2021.
1:- Asian stocks decline during the last weekly trading session.
Asian stocks declined after data reports indicated a slowdown in the expected recovery from the Coronavirus crisis. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced that the nation's retail sales fell 2.4% annually in January, while Tokyo's consumer price index decreased 0.3% in February compared to the same month last year.
Meanwhile, the sharp increase in US Treasury yields also led to a sell-off, as investors turned away from high-value equities, especially in the technology sector. The rise in bond yields is accompanied by fears of interest rate hikes by central banks.
2:- Consumer confidence in the European Union improves in February.
The euro rose in trading after data revealed by the European Commission in its report published on Thursday that consumer confidence in the euro zone increased slightly in February, rising from -15.5 recorded in January to -14.8 this month. The Economic Confidence Index (ESI) also improved, growing from 91.5 in January to 93.4 in February.
Industry and service confidence also increased to negative 3.3 and negative 17.1 respectively, beating expectations. Lynn of the European Central Bank sees the need for extended monetary facilities.
In other news from the European continent, Philippe Lin, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), said Thursday, "The bank will need to continue providing ample cash facilities for an extended period even after the inflation pressures are compensated. And that caused by the epidemic enough. He added that the challenge facing the European Central Bank after the coronavirus pandemic would be “to ensure that the monetary policy stance delivers a strong and timely convergence of inflation with our medium-term target.”
3:- US economy expected to grow by up to 5% in 2021.
The dollar traded lower despite positive data revealed by the National Retail Federation on Wednesday in its annual report that the US economy is expected to expand between 4.5% and 5% this year.
Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Fragmentation Federation said: "The course of the economy depends on the effectiveness and distribution of the vaccine... Our main assumption is that vaccination will be effective and allow rapid growth during the middle of the year." The economy is expected to witness its fastest growth in more than two decades. ” The report added that between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs will be created in the United States each month this year.
On the other hand, the National Retail Federation estimated Wednesday that US retail sales will grow between 6.5% and 8.2% this year, to reach $ 4.33 trillion in 2021.
---------- Post added 27-02-2021 at 09:30 AM ---------- Previous post was 26-02-2021 at 12:32 PM ----------
Update Feb 27th 2021
Small update that includes analysis and remarks over the weekend. I will post more inclusive analysis and news tomorrow before the market opens.
Starting with GBPUSD, the pair has finally broken below the ascending channel as it has touched the weekly resistance highlighted on the chart below. The pair had been going bullish for about a full year with minor corrections in the process. Now that GBPUSD has reached this highlighted significant resistance around 1.3930 and 1.4215, prices were shocked back to the bearish side immediately during the trading activities on Thursday and Friday. In all likelihood, the pair has set a path toward the weekly support area around 1.3460. Entry points are still vague at the moment given the momentum of the fall.
Moving onto the precious metal; gold. The metal has broken below the daily support at 1773.30$. While the descent was violent during Friday's trading activities, gold has retraced from the following daily support area and managed to settle at the current prices above said support at 1732.40$. The retracement of the last daily candle evokes a sense of bullish reversal but the support area remain untested and the likelihood of bullish ascension remains weak for the moment.
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