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Thread: CL/Crude Oil

     
  1. TOP MESSAGES
    2021-05-06   16:35
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    { Technical Analysis Of The CRUDE OIL Pair (May 6) ​ANALYSIS }

    Fundamental Analysis-:
    If we remove the news on Iran, then others immediately pop up, today it became known that Saudi Aramco will reduce selling prices for consumers from Asia, and all due to the case is associated with a worsening epidemiological situation in the region. So, in India, at the end of the past day, another anti-record was set for the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus infection: 412.2 thousand new cases and 3.98 thousand deaths were detected, as a result of which the ****** authorities agreed to introduce a nationwide lockdown in the coming days. In general, speculators are not in an easy situation, on the one hand, the market is under threat, on the other hand, their desire to play on rumors, they say there is a vaccine, something to fear, and on the cries of states about the rapid recovery of the world economy.
    Technical Analysis-:
    Still, they are trying to build a movement within the ascending channel. We managed to test the horizontal resistance level 66.30-40 and now the correction is fully worked out to the horizontal level 65.20-30 . It remains to either resume the upward movement, or move inside the channel for a decline and test the lower boundaries of the upward channel. It is preferable for the buyer to get out and consolidate above the tested resistance level 66.30-40 , but let's see how possible it will be after exiting both the upper border of the channel. The option to get a decline on the exit from the ascending channel with the breakdown of the lower border is also possible, but here the main obstacle is the horizontal support level 62.80-85.
    Attachment 371778Attachment 371777

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    2021-05-07   06:46
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    Crude Oil Fundamentally Analyzes

    US crude oil fell slightly on Thursday (May 6) . As the world is in the midst of a commodity boom, some people in the oil market are preparing for the price of crude oil to reach US$100 per barrel . Traders now hold options to buy nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil at $100 a barrel in three key months , and their open positions have almost doubled in the past week. Although the recovery of oil prices to triple digits is obviously not a market consensus, and derivatives such as options are still mainly used as hedging tools against the possibility of price surges, they also remind people that few people expect the rise in crude oil prices to ebb soon. Overall, oil prices are rising brightly. Although some disappointment with gasoline inventories, oil demand is picking up and the momentum is increasing. Investment banks predict that as Europe and many other regions get rid of the blockade, and intercontinental aviation begins to rise, crude oil prices It may reach US$80-85 in the second half of this year, but it is necessary to pay attention to the concerns of India or the outbreak of the third round of the epidemic or limit the room for oil price increases.
    Technical aspects of crude oil:
    The daily line closes over the K line is in a V shape above the Bollinger Bands middle rail, and the line part closes above the rising line, so there is still a short-term demand for callback. The hourly line rose on the Bollinger Band Middle Track and the 50 MA at the same time, and the Line rose strongly all the way. The Bollinger Band track clearly tilted upward, the opening continued to increase, and the obvious upward tilt. Although it was blocked and fell back near the new high of 66.7, the K line Holding the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and continuing to move up, the typical move of stepping back to confirm support, the hourly line shows a clear bullish trend. On the whole, after the crude oil stepped back to confirm the bottom at the beginning of the week, it not only recovered the decline of last week, but also set a new high.The current upward channel remains intact. On the whole, today's crude oil short-term operation is suggested to be mainly low and long, supplemented by high altitude. The top short-term focus is on the 67.0-67.5 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 63.5-63.0 first-line support

    The attachment
    2021-05-07   11:12
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    The latest crude oil market analysis:

      
    crude oil news face analysis: crude oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, erasing the early gains in the session, because US gasoline inventories increased, and technical signals indicate that its rise is facing a correction. According to a report from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories fell by nearly 8 million barrels last week, the largest increase in exports in history, but gasoline inventories increased for the fifth consecutive week. The raw material market has generally risen for some time, pushing the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index to its highest level in the past decade, and crude oil prices have also followed this upward trend. However, the failure of oil prices to break through key resistance levels and the fact that prices have been hovering near the upper Bollinger band in recent trading days have increased downward pressure. The reopening of the US economy and the vaccination of the new crown vaccine will continue to provide support for the long-term recovery of demand in the US market. Some analysts said that oil prices have risen brightly, but they have gone too far, and prices have encountered resistance and fallen, but it is difficult for the growth of demand in the summer to derail.
      
    Crude oil technical analysis:

    Crude oil showed a trend of rising and falling as a whole on Thursday. It opened at 65.2 in early trading. After a slight fall, it began to rise. The highest reached US$65.9, the European market turned down, the US market accelerated downward, and the lowest touched an intraday low. It rebounded after the 64.4 position and finally closed at around $65. From the perspective of the disk, the daily line closes the middle yin line of the shadow line, forming a pattern of 2 consecutive yin. This time the callback is slightly stronger, but it does not form a yin swallowing yang pattern, and a trend change is formed spatially, but in actual form , The daily Bollinger Band continues to open upwards, showing a shock upward trend recently. The K-line runs along the upward trend line, and the K-line keeps developing above the daily unilateral moving average. The trend in the daily cycle is still long. On the 4-hour line, the K-line continued to close at a high position. After hitting a high of $66.7, the rebound high continued to move downward, forming a partial head and shoulders pattern. Although the overall upward channel has not been destroyed, it is a way to change time and space. , The overall is still strong, but we still need to beware of a deep pullback caused by a high fall. On the whole, after the continuous rise of oil prices, short-term corrections are ushered in. Therefore, in the daily operation. Ghot to rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks.
    Attachment 372021
    Ghot

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    2021-05-10   07:36
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    On the 4-hour chart, the price is inside the ascending channel. This morning, it seems that the pair started to grow and the price broke up, the uptrend, so it is possible that the price will continue to move up and the growth target will be the upper border of this channel, this is the level of 67.37. After reaching this level, it will be possible to expect that the pair will turn around and begin to move down to the lower border of this channel, this is to the level of 63.54. Stochastic on the 4-hour chart shows growth, but is trying to turn around for a decline, therefore, after reaching the target upwards, there is a possibility that the pair will turn around and start moving down.
    Attachment 372893
    DAILY CHART FRAME
    Let's see what the daily timeframe shows us today. And these are breakout levels at the price of 67.97 upward, and downward at the price of 46.07. Unlike the daily TF, on the 4 hour timeframe, buy and sell deals will be more and the next ones will now be at 66.74 - up and down the level at 60.61. Well, and the earliest entry, on the hourly timeframe, we will watch up and down at prices 66.74 and 63.91. When the hourly candle closes, we enter a trade.
    Attachment 372894
    For Buy: StopLoss - 65.74 TakeProfit - 69.74. For Sell: StopLoss - 64.91 TakeProfit - 60.91 Exit a trade only by TP or SL. With other options, the expenditure side may increase and the profit may decrease.

    The attachment
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    As for oil, I am in a drawdown, but level 65 is confirmed and the highs have been held. The market deliberately smashed the previous level and removed the stops, and then at the end of the week we fell. This means that after completing the level, we can go back, crush support 61, and most likely 60.
    According to my observations, the central level 65 is very important, in our case it showed that we will not go up to 70. After all, if we could not pass the golden mean, bouncing from it, we will again go to test 60. So the lows of 61 will be just the beginning, I aim with the first profit at 60. I had to survive the takeoff well, but it was worth it. Many have lost money here, but the reversal with the breakout of the cloud has already been confirmed. True, the market does not always continue to go further, sometimes it needs a little time or a rollback into the clouds.
    The situation is tense, and it was necessary to buy earlier. It is dangerous to buy now, you cannot think that this is a simple rollback. The market has shown many reversals this Friday. Better to take advantage of the knockout week and sell profitably from the highs. I show my sales below. I don't want to hide anything, you can think with your own head and analyze the situation in the market. But by selling higher than other traders, you are already in the black. If there is a fall to zero or a slight pullback, then you will already make money. But what if now, on the contrary, the bulls climb into the market with purchases? They will carry money down with stops at support levels. Have a nice weekend everyone.

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    { Technical Analysis Of The CRUDE OIL Pair (April 30) ​ANALYSIS }


    Judging by the need for restrictions on covid-19, and you know what is happening in India now, an attempt to avoid such a scenario is possible only by limiting and increasing the vaccination of the population! Therefore, the economy will not be able to gain momentum, but they will try to pull oil down again. Although they are already quite skillfully managing the limitation of production and other ways of keeping the price of black gold. There is no need to look too deeply to the south, but approximately the support level of 54.00-10 can be reached in the descending channel on the daily timeframe. and the buyer will take completely different ways to get north.
    There is also an option to stay in a sideways movement at the reached resistance level of 66.30-40.
    Name: Screenshot Capture - 2021-05-01 - 13-25-04.png Views: 54 Size: 63.8 KBName: Screenshot Capture - 2021-05-01 - 13-25-26.png Views: 51 Size: 122.4 KB

    On Friday, oil fell by about a hundred points. Yesterday, the Bears consolidated below Thursday's low of 63.65 and hit Friday's low of 63.09. Currently, the price is below the average Bollinger Bands at 63.48. On this chart, the MACD and Stochastic oscillators give buy signals. I assume that on Monday the price growth will continue to the levels of 64.06 - 64.84.
    Name: Screenshot Capture - 2021-05-01 - 13-30-33.png Views: 52 Size: 155.7 KB

    I decided to see how the OIL USD tool behaves today. Opening the hourly chart, I found it. The price for this instrument, having passed the movement to the south, decided to turn in the opposite direction, that is, to the so-called north. Analyzing this situation based on the signals of a number of indicators installed on the chart. Namely. The arrow indicator gives a buy signal. And the indicators of Bill Williams, as it were, temporarily confirm this signal. The price for this instrument is trying a reversal to the north. I suppose there may be a movement to the north from the support level 63.03 to the level at around 64.70.

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    Crude Oil


    The medium and long-term monthly oil prices are under pressure from a downward trend line since the July 2018 high. Oil prices briefly broke through the trend line in March, but eventually the K-line entity retreated below the trend line. The pressure on the long-term trend line should not be underestimated. Oil prices may face the greatest pressure since their bottoming and rebound in April last year. The market outlook may experience a more substantial correction.

    Daily oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. MACD and Bollinger Band Middle Track are still showing an upward trend, but KDJ shows a certain overbought risk, and a short-term correction may usher in the market. The bulls rose to the 76.4% retracement level on Thursday and fell back under pressure near 65.45. The bulls failed to stabilize the price above 65, which gave the bears an opportunity. The intraday market happened to meet resistance near the high of 64.88 on March 18, and it may step back on the 61.8% retracement level of 63.88 If oil prices accelerate below this line, it may form a bearish engulfing pattern, which is very detrimental to the bulls. However, given that the bulls still have the upper hand, there is a greater chance of a bottoming out in the day, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market after the decline. On the upside, 64.88 is the initial resistance. Breaking through this level can be seen to the 65.47 line and further to 66.40. On the downside, if it falls below 63.88, it will further look at the 50% retracement level of 62.61, with the 50-day moving average support near 61.97.

    After the opening, crude oil rebounded and tested around 65.4, fell back and tested around 64.3 and closed at around 64.8. Crude oil aggressive 64 should be short to see around 64.3 and 62.3, while stable ones should be short at 65.8 and see around 65.4 and 64, or 63.8 to see 64.7 and 65.4. It is enough to break near 66, and for the stable 63, look at the vicinity of 64 and 65. The specific order is recommended to be based on the real-time point

    On the whole: Interval shocks are the main ones, but the upper side needs to pay attention to the 64 resistance, and the lower side pays attention to the vicinity of 60. It is recommended to pay attention to the Killer090


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    After failing to break the channel up that was formed on D1, then in my opinion the price will drop again next week. Like tonight's prediction, the price will briefly retrace to the resistance area, before finally continuing the downward movement starting tomorrow & then the price will fail to break the resistance in the minor time frame, which is around 63.80 as my reference to open this sell. If the momentum of the drop continues, it is likely that the price will go to the closest support, which is around the price of 64.65 which at the same time there is an ema level as a stop loss, also priced at 64.35.

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    On h4 time frame above, we can see that the movement of the OIL market on Friday managed to breakout the supply at 64.75 and the price is in a correction phase, the area of ​​supply that is broken out will automatically become new demand, so at the market opening on Monday we can take a buy. Because the price is still in the 65.20 area where our target is 63.50, but we have to look at the 64.30-63.50 next area, which is a big base if we look at the D1 time frame, so it is likely that next week the price will go back and forth in this area.

    Name: IMG-20210502-WA0001.jpg Views: 51 Size: 65.9 KB


    On the other hand, if the support price at 64.55 can be broken then the sellers will continue their journey as a target to be reached at 63.88 followed by 63.70. However, it is necessary to pay close attention and be aware of the pullback that occurs in this OIL. Where the resistance area at 65.50 will be the first target. If the first resistance is broken, the journey in the uptrend will resume with the next target at the price of 62.95$ and 61.60$ and 60$. See the picture below.

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    { Technical Analysis Of The CRUDE OIL Pair (Monday May 2) ​ANALYSIS }


    Last trading week, we see that buyers rewrote the new maximum a little, but it did not work out for a long time above the 64.30 mark, we can say that they made a false breakout above and now the price is again trying to gain a foothold below the previous local level at 63.65, despite the fact that it is below during that time there was an empty place for a fall, so it is quite possible from this formation that quotes will go down again and targets may become 62.55 with a possible continuation.
    Attachment 369977
    Despite the decline in oil prices (in short-term trading), the overall picture shows growth (see figure). On Friday, the result of the decline in value was such news as "a slowdown in business growth in China, tough situations with coronavirus in India, as well as in other countries including Japan and Brazil." Sharp demand for the American currency. But what happens next? So far, the price of black gold is $ 63.48 per barrel. It's strange to talk about technical characteristics, but so far the uptrend line shows an active growth in oil prices. The general range at which oil varies is $ 63-64.

    On the four-hour chart the price was able to form so much a fractal to the north, but you need to wait for the opening of the trading day. And the price will most likely be able to continue northward to the level of this month's high. And of course, as an alternative, the price will be able to continue to reduce oil to the level of the middle line to the level of 62.30 approximately, and already at it, look where the price will go. And the most important thing is that oil is now showing a northern direction in stochastics.
    Attachment 369978

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIF OF Crude OIL


    From a technical point of view, crude oil prices have risen for three consecutive days at the daily level. MACD and Bollinger Bands are still showing an upward trend. However KDJ shows a certain overbought risk and a short term correction may usher in the market. The bulls rose to the 76.4% Retracement level on Thursday and fell back under pressure near 65.45. The bulls failed to stabilize the price above 65, which gave the bears an opportunity. The intra day market happened to meet resistance near the high of 64.88 on March 18 and it may step back on the 61.8% retracement of 63.88 in the day. The bulls are expected to find support near this level. If oil prices accelerate below this line it may form a bearish engulfing pattern which is very detrimental to the bulls. However given that the bulls still have the upper hand, there is a greater chance of a bottoming out in the day and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market after the decline. I believes that on the upside, 64.88 is the initial resistance. Breaking through this level can be seen at the 65.47 line and further at 66.40. On the downside if it falls below 63.88 it will further look at the 50% retracement level at 62.61 and the 50-day moving average support will be around 61.97.

    On the whole crude oil has basically recovered the decline of last week after confirming the bottom by stepping back at the beginning of the week and is currently showing a trend of double bottom breaking. On the whole suggested to focus on the short term operation of crude oil today and the rebound is mainly supplemented by the high altitude rebound.

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    OIL PRICES ARE UNDER PRESSURE ON MONDAY DUE TO DECLINING CONSUMPTION IN INDIA

    Oil prices are lower on Monday as the coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp drop in energy demand in India, undermining investor optimism about a recovery in global oil demand.

    According to preliminary data, restrictive quarantine measures in India have led to a decrease in gasoline demand by about 7% compared to 2019 levels. Demand for diesel fuel is also actively decreasing. At the same time, experts predict a further reduction in demand for energy resources due to the introduction of new quarantine measures, since a new surge in the incidence was recorded in the country over the weekend, more than 400 thousand new cases of infection were registered per day. Its important to note that India is the third largest consumer of energy resources in the world.

    Market pressure may also come from reports that Iran and the US are continuing negotiations to reopen a nuclear deal that could lead to the lifting of US sanctions. This will allow Iran to increase its oil exports.

    The chart is dominated by bearish signals. The price was unable to overcome the resistance level 63.80 and now a downward wave is developing on the chart with the first target at 62.50.


    MARKET TECHNICAL OIL


    Oil confirms a scenario of downward reversal. The asset is traded down for three days in a row getting ready for testing of the middle Bollinger band (61.90-61.94). Potential of the ADX declines, therefore a move of the price to the lower Bollinger bands is unlikely so far.

    ocally the asset is limited by the range of the lower Bollinger bands (62.66-64.00). Correction of the price to the upper boundary of the channel may be leveraged for gaining short positions.

    The intraday lower Bollinger band wasnt broken, therefore the main expectation from today;s session will be accumulation of potential within the Bollinger bands (62.66-63.88).

    Lets note the presence of activity from the ADX indicator that might bring surprises with volatility and probable movement under support 62.66 (red arrow).

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    CL# ANALYSIS


    Wishing well mt5 members ! Pay attention to M30, you can see how the formation of an unfolded triangle is going on, from here and the movement as a result can turn out from one side to the other, if my assumption turns out to be correct, then today or tomorrow we can see 62.25 -62.05.

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    Again, if there is no change, in the form of an additional injection of volumes into the market, I think it may appear after the price breaks through 65.15-65.45, and consolidate higher, without confirmation, this may be a false breakout. It remains to wait about an hour or less, the growth cycle may end, and sales will come in its place.
    I believe that we are now moving along the waves to the level of about 64.78 to update the local extremum. We also had a breakdown of the trend line, respectively, the reversal of the correction of orange waves. True, the price tried to cover up its tracks and also sawed a little on the breakdown.

    I also want to agree on the Fibonacci targets, this is 300% according to the setting impulse TF m15. I did not consider 261% - although it has a probability higher than 300, only because there is a probability of updating the extreme and also entering an important horizontal level at the end of the third wave of the impulse.
    Now it is not worth doing anything, Chicago opens in a minute, so simply securing the position will be enough.

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    { Technical Analysis Of The CRUDE OIL Pair (May 4) ​ANALYSIS }


    Good day to all traders. Consider the generated sell signal on the Oil futures chart on a four-hour timeframe. At the moment, quotes are trading below the pivot point of the level of 65.62. Trades are held at the level of 66.64. The main element of this strategy is the Genesis matrix indicator colored all four constituent elements on a red palette, which gives us a sell signal. Quotes are trading below the middle line of the Bollinger Band indicator, which expands the boundaries of its channel, which indicates the continuation of the formed trend. The lines of the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, which is an auxiliary confirming signal, crossed, left the overbought zone and directed downward.

    From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a sell. It follows from this that the decline in quotations will continue, with the first target at 63.70 and the next at 62.40. We set the obligatory stop just above the important pivot level. Cancellation of our sales will change the color of all elements of the Genesis matrix indicator to the opposite white. Fixing the price above the pivot point will give entry points to buy with targets at 68.74 and above. Follow the rules of money management and do not forget to transfer open trades to no loss, this will reduce your risks in the event of a sharp reversal in the price of a currency pair. Beginners in Forex should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period of time. I also recommend activating the trail after the price has moved in a profitable direction by at least 20-25 points. I wish you all a good day and profitable trades.

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    Good day to all traders. Consider the signal on the oil futures chart presented in the picture attached below. The time interval is thirty minutes. At the moment, the quotes are traded near the point of support and now the price is at 67.43. As we can see, a signal for the sale of oil has formed. The main element of this strategy, the technical indicator of the Genesis matrix, changed the color of all the components of the elements to the red color scheme. The lines of auxiliary supporting indicator Stochastic oscillator crossed and are directed towards the opening of the transaction. The quotes are traded below the average line of the Bollinger Band indicator, which indicates the continuation of the current trend. From the point of view of comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal the sale. We conclude that the decline will continue. The expected level of sales will be 66.56 and the next - 65.56. The obligatory stop should be just above the level of beer. In the event of a price reversal, in order to provide lower risks, you should transfer open trades in without a loss. The cancellation of sales will be the signal of the Genesis indicator matrix, which will change the tone of its components to the opposite white. When the price is fixed above the reference point, it can continue to move to the level of 68.19 and above. Follow the rules of money management. Beginners to trade in the Forex market should remember that every trade can not be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading for a long period of time.
    Somewhere in the middle of the upstream channel trying to keep the oil moving, and today the buyer is trying to restore the server. Will it be possible to get to the maximum testing 65.45then the horizontal resistance level 66.30-40 it's not far away. In any case, the buyer will try not only to test, but also to make a breakdown with the subsequent fixation. Moving north buyer supports by any means and getting rid of his tricks now is very difficult.
    Name: Screenshot_20210504_155017_net.metaquotes.metatrader4.jpg Views: 235 Size: 565.2 KB

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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