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Thread: AUD/USD

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    Good day to all traders and speculators who are here in the forum!

    Lets talk about the Australian dollar/US dollar currency pair:

    It seems that the sales era is starting for the AUD/USD pair. On the four-hour time frame, the upward trend began a corrective move and shifted to selling after quite some time. The priority changed at the end of the previous week after the release of news during the US trading session. At the moment, the price of this instrument is at the level of 0.7351. We expect it to make a downward correction, which is a usual sight every Monday. After the opening of the market, we will move to the level of 0.7376 and then decline to the lower border of the channel 0.7291 and below. In such a case, they can change everything considering that there will be no key factors to appear until the current week ends. We will attempt to make an entrance into the market without a problem. It shows that the priority is the downward movement.

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    Greetings to our dear traders and speculators who are here in the forum!

    Lets discuss the current situation of the AUD/USD pair:

    Looking at the fifteen-minute time frame, it can be seen that this pair broke through the ascending price channel of 0.7370, which resulted in a downward movement. Now, the decline is expected to develop to be able to reach the level of 0.7340. Here, the level of 0.7345 can also be seen, which is the last local low. It is very possible to retest this level, the breakdown of which will lead to a sharp decline and resumption of the downward trend.

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    As for the hourly time frame, it can be seen that there is a strong resistance line, below which the AUD/USD pair is trading. Moreover, the price attempted to test the resistance line twice, which was not successful. Moreover, it formed an upward trend after rebounding from the level of 0.7100 (local low) and traded within this channel for a long time. This price channel has been now broken in a downward direction, which eventually led to the formation of a downward trend. The pair is now trading below the resistance line and most likely, the decline will continue the target of declining to the level of 0.7300 and below.

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    Economic Calendar Overview

    Good morning! It seems there will be a bunch of medium and high-impact news for the AUD and USD pair. For the AUD currency, there is NAB Business Confidence and A speech from RBA Gov Philip Lowe. And for the USD currency, there is an Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate. I think all of that news is enough to bring good volatility to AUD/USD.

    Technical Analysis for AUD/USD based on Daily Timeframe

    It seems AUD/USD still struggles to break below 50 periods of Bollinger band. But, considering the stochastic oscillator is still showing a bearish sign, I believe that AUD/USD will still try to move down in the next couple of days. But for the trade, I will still wait for today's candle close before making a decision. Because right now, five periods of a smoothed moving average is already in a flat condition. So, that means AUD/USD trend is sideway. I believe there will be a better direction tomorrow.

    Technical Analysis for AUD/USD based on H4 Timeframe

    From the chart above, AUD/USD is still struggling to break below 100 and 200 periods of an exponential moving average. But, considering the stochastic oscillator is still showing a bearish signal. I think for today, AUDUSD will still try to move down and try to break below 100 and 200 periods of an exponential moving average. If AUD/USD still failed to break all that moving average when the European market session opens, I think we might see an up move in AUD/USD today. So, it is better to prepare to buy AUD/USD when it can't break the two moving averages or sell when it succeeds.

    Technical Analysis for AUD/USD based on H1 Timeframe

    I think AUD/USD is still waiting for the speech from RBA Gov Phillip Lowe. Because from the chart above, five periods of a smoothed moving average are in a flat condition. If AUD/USD can break above 50 periods of a Bollinger band, it is a chance to make a scalping buy trade. The target profit will be 0.7400 or around the upper band of 50 periods of a Bollinger band. Otherwise, you can try to sell AUD/USD with 0.7340 as a target profit.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    AUDUSD Analysis September 14, 2021

    D1 time frame

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    The AUDUSD market has been in a downtrend for the whole week and as we enter the new trading week the momentum is still continuing even though yesterdays Daily candle closed positive. The market might be trying to go to the Demand zone where there is balance before. After the price goes there then we can decide whether the price will still go down or resume its trend upward. There is already a break of a Market Structure so it is going to be a good place to buy when the price goes to the Demand zone. However, if the price can continue to go down and then even break the 0.71319 level then the momentum is clearly already shifting for a longer term. The potential pattern is the Zigzag pattern but there is also a potential for a Flat pattern if the Zigzag pattern fails. Both of those patterns are Trend Continuation patterns.


    H4 time frame

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    On the H4 time frame, there was already a pattern called the M pattern and then the market continue with a Lower Low. The price is currently near the Support area and it is on the way down to the Demand zone and this is where the price had a temporary balance before going up. It is too early to pick a trend at this market condition so its better to wait to reduce the risk of getting the direction wrong. But, if you already want to enter the market then you must be prepared to take more risks.


    These areas/ zones are valid for the AUD/USD market for now:

    Higher Resistance (R2): 0.75899
    Immediate Resistance (R1): 0.74800
    Immediate Support (S1): 0.72286
    Lower Support (S2): 0.71319
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    Technical Analysis Of AUD/USD pair after the rejection from the resistance obstacle at 0.7470

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    Daily outlook of AUDUSD pair
    • On the daily chart, the price of the AUDUSD pair has been in the downtrend movement since last week. Since Monday after the opening of the new week, price once again continued its negative direction. Although we had news yesterday regarding the (AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks), which could not strengthen the pair against the DXY, the price continues to decline. It was closed with the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern after gaining some intraday strength from the buyers, and today, it continued its negative momentum.
    • The price is still fluctuating in the positive range to resume its positive momentum. However, the outlook of the price formation on the chart looks to be formating a head and shoulder pattern. For this price need to breach the 38.2% FIBO and consolidation below would confirm a head and shoulder pattern, aiming to decrease the price towards the support level of 50.0% FIBO at 0.6798. If the price rebounds from the MA-100 and strengthens above 23.8% FIBO, it would provoke the buyers to increase the price to a resistance level of 0.7690.
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    H4 outlook of AUDUSD pair

    • On the H4 time chart, after forming a double top, the price has continued to decline in the negative direction. Although, the price has been trapped around the MA-100 and MA-200 moving averages to determine the direction. During the testing, the support level of 0.7336 the price has formed several reversal candlesticks patterns, including bullish hammer bullish engulfing and Doji as well, which is an indication of processing a reversal signal for the leading continuation of the upward trend. The buyers' ultimate target of the potential growth is at the level of 0.7400. after consolidation below the resistance, buyers will resume their momentum into an upwards direction with the expected target of 0.7480.

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    AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

    I am trying to analyse the AUD/USD currency pair. We will talk about price movement using my price action method.
    In my previous analysis, I wrote that the price is on the current resistance level of 0.74120. In momentum, it could drop towards the support level. Therefore, I would like to buy at 0.73300 because there is a 200 simple moving average as support levels. The price surged that day, and after rejection, tried to move up towards the first resistance level 0.73660.

    AUD/USD was the ideal currency pair to trade as the currency pair fell amid worsening risk sentiment over the weekend. Risk priorities often result in US dollar capital inflows and Australian dollar capital outflows. As the current foreign exchange market is experiencing the most significant price fluctuations, this trade looks attractive for trading, so action is needed here.

    The New York session has started, and we see a rebound at my decision support level of 0.73300, and those at this level allow us to anticipate the next steps. The short-term downward trend in the exchange rate, where this level falls, continues to decline. However, if this level continues, the price may rise to 0.73660 (20-SMA). The next level is 0.73930 (50-SMA). Later, a low retracement at 0.73930 could also be a good trade for a short entry.

    AUD/USD H4 TIMEFRAME CHART

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    TRADING IDEAS
    SUPPORT LEVELS: 0.73300, 0.72850, 0.72150
    RESISTANCE LEVELS: 0.73660, 0.73930, 0.74450

    INDICATORS
    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE 20
    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE 50
    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE 100
    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE 200
    MACD (12, 26, 9)
    STOCH (5, 3, 3)
    RSI (14)

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    H4 Technical Analysis

    Hello dear friends. AUD/USD is currently hovering around the monthly supply/demand zone of 0.7320, which is the level to guide the trend of AUD/USD, and now suggests that the AUD/USD pair can move higher from here. In addition, a sharp decline from there could lead to a lower price in the range of 0.7230-70, where we can expect more buying positions. Since August 3 the pair tried to make an uptrend after testing the low of 0.77100. But now, I can't anticipate the price to fall below that level because my forecast says that the price can target around 0.7480-0.7580, which is the highest level of September and July. Thus, by keeping these levels in front of us, we can take our buying position. While the price movement below the level of 0.7300 can bring the price to the support level from 0.7270 to 0.7220. In addition, for short-term trading, we will consider the H1 time frame.

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    H1 Technical Analysis

    During the H1 time frame, that 3 September bearish trend has almost ended, and the buyer's participants seem to be stronger than the 0.773 support level. We can enter the market when the buyer's participants exceed the resistance level of 0.7330. Because this is the closest resistance to break, which will confirm the bullish trend in AUD/USD. So we can enter the market at this level and enter the resistance range of around 0.7350 with re-buy trade and set the expected profit target around 0.7400 to 0.7480. In contrast, a breakdown below the 0.77300 support zone could move the price to another demand zone of 0.7280-40, where we can expect more buying positions in this demand zone.

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    D1 Time Frame Technical Outlook:

    AUD/USD price is moving in a bit bullish territory and testing this high near 0.7370 this week, and we haven't found the long-term trend direction for this pair. In addition to the announced trend line barrier, concerns about the flat moving average and lower employment data also challenge the pair's bulls. An apparent reversal of the mentioned resistance line, near 0.7360, followed by the 200-SMA level at 0.7385, becomes necessary for the pair to extend the recent development. After that, the Fibonacci retracement of 38.8% will be the key to move down and test the potential target area of ​​0.7270. It is worth noting that the price above 0.7370 needs to be confirmed by the 50.9% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7390. After closing in negative territory, the pair moved lower in the Asian session and touched its weakest level at 0.7300. The pair reversed direction in the second half of the day and was last seen at 0.7350. However, the pair looks ready to continue trading in a solid bullish channel, and we can expect the upcoming breaking trend line at the physical level of 0.7400. So we need to wait for more breakout to trade in the range between 0.7300-0.7450.

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    H4 Time Frame Technical Outlook:

    During the H4 time frame, the price rises in the sideways range and tries to correct the ascending area at 0.7400. In the meantime, we have a crossover of 200 SMA lines, which could be a potential target for the subsequent volatility of the market. Also, when the price breaks the new bullish trend line, we may decide to take further action and execute orders in the demand zone. If the price drops below this SMA line, it will show us a sharp decline and break the support channel at 0.7280. The SMA lines above 0.7375 level show buyers pressure; if the price rises and swing over to the bullish region, then the next target might be physical 0.7455, and it is possible that if buyers stay strong and push the price higher in the 0.7390 range, then we can hold our long-term trades to the next expected broken channel at 0.7470.

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    Analysis of today's AUD/USD exchange rate chart (September 16, 2021)


    In the Asian market on Thursday, the blockade caused by the epidemic has had an impact on the labor market; Australias unemployment rate in August recorded 4.5%, which is the lowest level since December 2008; however, the number of employed people fell sharply by 146,300, which was more than market expectations. A reduction of 90,000; Affected by this news, AUD/USD fell 0.04%, hovering around 0.7329.

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    Fundamental analysis


    The data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in the Asian market on Thursday showed that the unemployment rate in Australia fell to 4.5% in August, which was better than market expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 4.6%, a record high in 2008. The lowest level since the month.

    In addition, the market has generally predicted that Australias economy will shrink in the quarter ending in September, but if the epidemic continues to worsen, can the economy in the fourth quarter successfully rebound from the downturn in the third quarter? Market worries will continue, and the economic outlook may also weigh on the Australian dollar.

    Technical trend analysis


    From the 4-hour chart, the decline of the Australian dollar against the US dollar since the intra-month high of 0.7478 after hitting the low of 0.7301 seems to have temporarily stagnated and started a mild rebound. The current price has reached the recent downtrend line and the 20-day Near the moving average (MA), focus on the gains and losses of the resistance convergence level. The RSI indicator remained below the 50 level, releasing a bearish signal.


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    If the Australian dollar against the US dollar once again meets resistance at the downtrend line that started from the high point of the year, the lower short-term potential support is concerned with the range of 0.7301-0.9292 (monthly low, 50% Fibonacci retracement level). Conversely, if a break is confirmed, the short-term resistance will be around 0.7390-0.7410, and if it breaks, then further attention will be given to the 0.7478 line.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Fundamental & Technical Forecast of AUD/USD



    Fundamentally, The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to maintain its quantitative easing plan, reducing its bond-buying program from 5 billion to 4 billion. However, it will be released in February 2022. The new crown virus could increase economic recovery and uncertainty over the Delta variety.
    • The US dollar index weakened against six major currencies on Wednesday. Recent data showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose sharply in August compared to the previous month, while below market expectations. The growth rate of the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) announced by the US last week has also slowed down. Excluding PPI core, food, energy, and trade services, it grew by only 0.3%.

    Technically, the recent rise in AUD/USD has been close to the 0.7320 level. At the same time, resistance is close to the 0.7350-80 range, which is a turning point for short-term traders. Each subsequent decline is supported near the 0.7280 mark, where the August 30 support line begins for the current level.

    The Bullish scenario is that if the exchange rate falls below 0.7350, the latest correction will end, and further gains will be made. The currency pair may then promise to reach an additional point near the 0.7410 marks and the 0.7470 area.

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    The Bearish scenario is that the price is after the support line at 0.7280 intervals. If it breaks down decisively, it could trigger some technical sales. After that, the currency pair support area will accelerate its decline to 0.7220. The downward trend will continue, and the exchange rate may risk deteriorating further, testing the August shock near the 0.71010 marks.

    Name: AUDUSDbearish.png Views: 13 Size: 31.2 KB

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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