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Thread: AUD/USD

  1. #1331 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Prediction for the AUD USD currency pair

    For the AUD USD currency pair, this morning, there is quite a lot of seller pressure when seen from the bearish candle on the H1 timeframe of AUD USD currency pair which has a long body and forms engulfing. Today I myself tried to sell AUD USD currency pair at the price of 0.77430 with the aim of going down to 0.77100. For today's trading I think the sell option is more dominant on the AUD USD currency pair where the possibility that after breaking 0.77266. AUD USD currency pair has the potential to continue its advance further today where it is likely to go back to 0.77000, which is the highest price for some time. then. AUD USD currency pair has the potential to be corrected as well to test 0.76980 and could be a stepping for further gains.


    On last day of closing the seller gave a surprise where it is able to provide a strong enough impetus so that it is observed that the market moves up significantly, seeing the buyers who currently still look quite strong, my prediction for this pair of AUD USD currency pair will move up again and the trading options that I am currently trying to prioritize are looking for opportunities to fire open buy, but the buy just for the some next hours time.


    The price movements that occur at this AUD USD currency pair line today are seen forming a pattern that has begun to decline again and is still holding out above the support area found on the D1 time frame. for today what needs to be our attention is related to the release of data later in the European session and until tonight on AUD USD currency pair and if you look at the forecast it looks like fundamental data.


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    Default Retracing Sell) AUD/USD

    AUD/USD was one of the most bullish pairs during last year, climbing more than 20 cents from the bottom to the top, as the USD kept declining. In the second half of last year, the restrictions increased in Australia, which is still going in some areas, but the AUD kept climbing higher faster than most major currencies.
    The bullish trend came to an end by the last week of February after it flushed some weak stops above the big round level at $0.80. This pair lost nearly 5 cents until the first day of April and turned bullish again later. Although, the bullish trend wasnt as strong which indicates weakness from buyers. In the last two working days though, the trend changed again and this pair lost around 120 pips, as the USD turned bullish again. It could be the month-end flows, but the reversal today looks weak too.

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    This pair reversed higher and was finding resistance at the 20 SMA level last night, which was eventually broken. Although, now AUD/USD is finding resistance at the 50 SMA on the H1 chart and the stochastic indicator is showing overbought. So according to this analysis, we can see some bearish moves in the upcoming hours. Hope so that the retrace-up is over and bears will create their space. Now lets wait and see if a bearish reversal will take place. All of you guys need to use proper Take Profit and Stop Loss. In the end, I wiss you the best of luck!
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  3. #1333 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    { Technical Analysis Of The AUDUSD Pair (4 May) ​ANALYSIS }


    Hello dear fellow traders! Let's conduct a technical analysis of the AUDUSD currency pair, timeframe H4. This analysis is based on indicators of trend, sentiment, emotions and extreme surges, the indicators of which should be colored in the same color on the chart, and this will serve as a signal for us to enter trades. To confirm the signal and a more accurate entry, we also take into account the direction of the Stochastic indicator lines and the moving average with a period of 20. Now you can see that the indicators of extreme market bursts, sentiment and the trend indicator (line on the chart) turned blue, Stochastic is directed upwards and entered overbought zone, the price is above the 20-period moving average, but the emotion indicator is still colored red. All this speaks of the uncertainty in the market, and therefore now it is better to refrain from opening new trades until clearer entry signals are formed. Good luck to everyone in your trading!

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  4. #1334 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    AUDUSD


    Fundamental


    The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to announce any policy changes after the meeting on Tuesday. The policy statement should emphasise the dovish outlook for the foreseeable future, which may cause the Australian dollar to weaken.

      The market will wait and see if there are any substantial changes from the April meeting statement. Given that the Fed will announce its quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday, Tuesdays statement may imply that the Fed will expect economic improvement and a decline in the unemployment rate.However, due to the unexpectedly weak underlying inflation data released last week, the Fed will stick to the view in the last paragraph of the April statement that the Monetary Policy Committee believes that the conditions for raising interest rates will not be available until 2024 at the earliest.


    technical


    If the RBAs resolutions and statements are in line with expectations, any impact on the Australian dollar against the US dollar should be short-lived. The Reserve Bank of Australia may be satisfied that the Australian dollar has consolidated in the 0.7500-0.800 range since the beginning of this year, and will avoid making any statements that would encourage the market to push the Australian dollar out of this range.In terms of market conditions, the Australian dollar against the US dollar continued to consolidate its gains, hovering above the 0.7700 level for the second consecutive week, but failed to break through 0.7800. In the medium and long term, the Australian dollar against the US dollar tends to be technically neutral.

    If it falls below the support level of 0.7691, the low of April 22, there may be a corrective decline. The next level will look at the 23.6% retrenchment level at 0.7643 and 0.76. On the upside, the currency pair needs to break through the 50% retrenchment level 0.7769 to extend the upward trend to the high of 0.7818 on April 29 and the high of 0.7849 on March 18.

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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis



    AUD/USD ticks up to 0.7755 before easing to 0.7745, down 0.23% intraday, following the RBAs status-quo during early Tuesday. In doing so, the quote struggles to defy the risk-off mood even as the Aussie central bank remains cautiously optimistic.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps its Cash Rate unchanged at 0.10% while also reiterating the 3-year bond yield target as 0.10%. The Aussie central bank also said, Central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further, with growth of 4¾ percent expected over 2021 and 3½ percent over 2022.Earlier in the day, Australias weekly consumer sentiment data, Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes came in strong. However, Aussie trade figures for March disappointed optimists not only the headlines Trade Balance but Imports and Exports also shrank during the reported period.

    In addition to the downbeat data, challenges to the market sentiment also weighed on the AUD/USD prices during Asia. Among them, requests from Japans largest prefecture (by area) to take further measures to tame the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the absence of the RBNZ Governor due to the sickness in the upcoming meeting tested the bulls. Also on the risk-negative side were the updates from the three-day meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Group of Seven industrialized nations (G7) that discusses various issues ranging from geopolitical and trade fears from Russia and China to the coronavirus (COVID-19) in London.

    Alternatively, economic optimism by the Fed policymakers and UK PM Boris Johnson seems to battle the bears. Though, off in China and Japan restricts the market moves.Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop for a third consecutive day while the US dollar index (DXY) nurses Mondays losses by the press time.Having witnessed the initial reaction to the key catalysts for AUD/USD pair, traders will keep their eyes on the market sentiment ahead of the US session for fresh impulse. Given the recent risk-off mood amid fresh covid concerns in Asia-Pacific, coupled with upbeat expectations from the US data, the pair may remain depressed for a while.Bulls and bears jostle between 0.7690 and 0.7820. While multiple highs marked during the last month define the upper limit, horizontal support area, comprising lows marked in late February and April, as well as March 29 top, portrays the range low.


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  7. #1336 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Technical Analysis
    The AUD / USD pair was slightly changed before the RBA was decided. Its trading price is 0.7743, which is slightly lower than the overnight high of 0.7766. This Fibonacci retrenchment level is between 50% and 38.2% with an average of 25 days and 15 days. It is also located between the rectangular channels which have support and resistance levels of 0.7690 and 0.7817 respectively. As a result, couples could be on the channel before the RBA's decision this morning.

    SUPPORT
    S1 7701
    S2 7593
    S3 7564
    RESISTANCE
    R1 7801
    R2 7871
    R3 7988

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    Fundamental Analyses

    As widely expected, the AUD / USD is under pressure at around 0.750 after the RBA left the monetary policy setting unannounced. The US dollar is trying to bounce back amid falling market sentiment. Australian trade in March fell short of expectations. The focus is shifting to US data.

    In the next few days, the market could have a clearer picture of the state of the Australian economy. The country will begin publishing production indicators in April and April. Securities inflation. The RBA will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, although central bankers are expected to maintain existing policies. As the week progresses, Australia will also offer to update the PMI and housing data for services.

    April will officially be included in the US economic calendar. ISMPMI, which is expected to grow economically. The focus will be on employment data, starting with the ADP study on private job creation on Wednesday and ending with a report on non-informal payrolls on Friday. An estimated 926,000 people will be in the country in April. The rate of new jobs and unemployment will fall to 5.8% from 6% last month.

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  8. #1337 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    AUD/USD FORECAST

    So far, the foreign exchange market has been bearish this week. After the Reserve Bank of Australia is at a very promising level, although the GDP forecast has also improved, Australia is still stabilizing within a narrow range. Since the harvest is not overnight, the dollar gets better.
    The health of Australian trade fell from $ 8.30 billion to $ 5.57 billion in March. Switzerland will convey the SECO consumer atmosphere during the European conference. The UK will provide final reports on mortgage approvals, M4 financing, and PMI construction.

    The next day, Canada will issue manufacturing permits and trade balances. The United States will maintain trade balances and factory orders.
    Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said in a statement that the US economy was making "real progress" despite being "unquestionable" and that the outlook was "very clear". The economy is "recovering, resulting in increased economic activity and job creation."
    However, at "street-level", the impact on people's lives differs from "individual to individual, family to family, community to society". "The recession was not the same for all Americans, and those who could afford lower wages suffered more," Powell added.

    AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

    Technically speaking, the fusion method may take some time. As mentioned earlier, despite the decline in the US dollar, there are no obvious signs of a reversal. The AUD/USD level provides support at 0.7676. As long as these levels remain unchanged, dollar sales should resume as soon as possible.
    AUD/USD traded at 0.7815, the domestic trend was neutral for the first time. If the support level of 0.7676 remains unchanged, the gains are much cheaper. On the bright side, a fall below 0.7815 will make the stock price rebound from 0.7530. A new breakthrough of 0.7848 will test the high of 0.8006 again. A break below 0.7667 can extend the uptrend to 0.8006, but the trend reaches support at 0.7530.

    AUD/USD 4-H CHART

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    AUDUSD




    Fundamentals 1.On Monday (May 3), the U.S. dollar under-performed the G-10 currency, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell. The previous report showed that the US manufacturing industry slowed down in April; data showed that the US manufacturing industry cooled in April, which boosted The demand for safe-haven assets. Oil prices have risen by more than 1%. Even if Indias daily new crown cases continue to hit new highs, the overall global demand outlook has become clearer, which has boosted oil prices.

    2.The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Monday, giving up part of the gains of the previous trading day, as the yields of U.S. Treasury fell and weak data put pressure on the U.S. dollar. The slowdown in US manufacturing activity growth in April may be constrained by input shortages, while accelerating vaccination and large-scale fiscal stimulus measures have released backlogs of demand. The data led to lower U.S. Treasury yields.

    3.New York Federal Reserve Chairman (FOMC Permanent Voting Committee) Williams predicts that U.S. inflation will be slightly higher than 2.0% in 2022, and the U.S. GDP growth rate in 2021 will be 7.0%; but economic data is not enough to support the Fed to change the direction of monetary policy, and the realization of " There is still a long way to go for a stable" recovery. The economic recovery of other countries will be suppressed and will be transmitted to the United States. The job market before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic did not trigger inflation. The market seems to understand the Fed's interest rate guidance. The Fed can adjust interest rates when necessary.



    Technical 1. The DMI indicator shows that -DI (orange line) is above +DI (blue line) and ADX (pink line), -DI points to higher, +DI and ADX both point to lower, suggesting that the movement momentum of the exchange rate is increasing. slow. If the exchange rate falls below the above-mentioned trend line support, it will further encourage the Australian dollar shorts to attack 0.7667. Conversely, if the exchange rate regains the immediate resistance of 0.7785 as the previous support, it is expected to rise to the psychological level of 0.78.The Australian dollar fluctuated up yesterday, and the daily line closed up, recording a mid-yang;

    2. The AUD/USD attracted some buying on Monday, and it stopped the recent decline from the 0.7815-20 area before the Reserve Bank of Australia issued a statement, which is an important factor in the strengthening of the exchange rate;

    3. During the H4 period, MACD shows a short position; the green column expands; the RSI indicator shows a short position, and the kinetic energy is becoming stronger; the BOLL opening is downward, and the technical side shows that the BOLL middle rail has a pressure on the exchange rate;




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  10. #1339 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Greetings gentlemen! Let's see how the Pivot levels on TF M15 are going today and what can be expected in the nearest intraday perspective. The pivot center is at 0.7721, the first resistance is at 0.7770, the second resistance is at 0.7801, the third resistance is at 0.7850, the first support is at 0.7690, the second support is at 0.7641, and the third support is at 0.7610. Currently the price of the pair is 0.7688, thus it is in the area of ​​the first support. Further, in case of another breakout of this level and subsequent consolidation above it, one should expect a continuation of the upward movement with the nearest target at the central level of Pivot 0.7721, or if sellers hold this level, a reversal and movement to the south with the nearest target at the second support 0.7641.


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    After reaching the lower border of the channel - 0.7643, the Australian currency began to regain its decline: the pair returned to the 77th figure and is currently under the influence of the level of 0.7704. If the Australian dollar rises above this price, then I expect the growth to continue to the next resistance 0.7745. As an alternative scenario, I consider the resumption of the descent to the southern zone: 0.7643 - 0.7626.
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    After such a serious decline, for reliability, a serious pullback is needed, for me it is the level of 0.7690 (it is hard to believe in the test of the 0.77 figure), but even 0.7690 here and now does not look very realistic. There is also 0.7643. 0.7671 (return to the broken trend line). Alternatively, to sell in small volumes from each sounded landmark.


    I wish you all good luck in your work!


  11. #1340 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    At the time of writing, it looks like the AUD USD market has been trading around the trading point of 0.7700 where it had previously fallen to 0.7674 which is one of the lowest points since mid-April.

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    AUD USD Support: 0.7675, 0.7630, 0.7590


    AUD USD resistance: 0.7730, 0.7775, 0.7820

    This AUD USD market after falling could risk to fall back further. According to short term technical readings, the H4 chart shows that the market is below its 20 SMA and 100 SMA, accompanied by a shorter SMA heading lower.

    Technical indicators are recovering in negative levels, but with limited bullish strength. Renewed AUD USD selling pressure below mentioned daily low may see the pair extend its decline towards 0.7531 price point, this year low.

    Another double bottom is also possible, there is already a zigzag break at H1. This will lead us to a strong buy signal. Right, the target will be very low. But they do not limit further growth, but act as a necessary minimum. So there is only one chance for now - to immediately break through the defenses.

    Now there is an analyst on the portal regarding what happened to the dollar. I don't have the knowledge to analyze in this area. If we take everything that happens with stocks at face value, the dollar could fall in price considerably in the future.

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    AUD USD movement after falling could risk to fall back further. According to short term technical readings, the chart shows that the market is below its 20 SMA and 100 SMA, accompanied by a shorter SMA heading lower. Technical indicators are recovering in negative levels, but with limited bullish strength. Renewed AUD USD selling pressure below mentioned daily low may see the pair extend its decline towards 0.7531 price point, this year low.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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