Update: 801 @ 21.02.2021 @ 05:03 PM (GMT+6)
Index: Greetings & Introductions, The Market Overview, The trading reports of the last week,Trading Plans for the Next Week, The Analysis & Forecast of the USD Index, The Forecast of the GBP/USD, Gold & EUR/USD.
Greetings & Introductions:
Greetings to traders, readers and fellow members of this trader's community. Still, the weekend is going on but within a few hours, the market will be opened again and we will be busy on trading again. Last few weeks, we have seen a massive breakout from major currency pairs and the next week, we have lots of USD and others currency news that will make a huge change on currency trading. For commodities, I concern an issue that coming week, we will see a deal closing day that commodity orders will be closed automatically and the dealer will open those trades again if the dealer will get enough margins to reopen these trades. So, if you have lack of capital or you want to away from the unwanted loss, then you should close your trades as soon as possible after opening the market.
The Market Overview:
- At the beginning of the week, the price of the USD Index was fully on bullish trend that the dollar index was strengthening after some good data from the USD currency. But end of the week, the Dollar Index was weakening due to bad data from the USD currency and the USD Index has made a lower price at 90.15 price mark.
- There was a significant movement from crude oil whereas for 4/5 week, US Oil price is moving significantly to upwards in this pandemic situation although the current price is the 13-months higher price of crude oil after the historical negative price of crude oil.
- Gold set a lower price region below the $1,800 price mark by the last week and just end of the last session, the price of gold was trading around the $1,783 price mark. Whatever, sellers of the gold are expecting a bearish breakout from the gold and now the gold is aiming to reach below the $1,750 price region.
- Last week, the dollar index made a long bearish trend and it has pushed the USD/CAD to move downwards. The USD/CAD has changed its region to the bearish trend and before the market closing of the last week, the USD/CAD was moving below 1.2615 price mark and traders are expecting the USD/CAD price below 1.2600 price mark by next Monday.
- Before, we have seen some similarity of Gold and Silver trading. But now a day, the silver metal is moving with a different trend. Although few weeks back, the silver metal has made a huge bullish breakout around $30.00 of its price but with a certain period, the silver has pulled back to downwards and now its trading below the $27.15 price mark and silver lovers are expecting the silver price below $25.50 price mark by next couple of weeks.
The Trading Reports: The trading reports of the last week.
Last week, I did some successful trades with different trading instruments. I have made a huge profit from the Bitcoin although I was with the long term trading plan with the Bitcoin. But because of the emotion, I have closed my trades with handsome profits otherwise I could get a huge number of profits. Still, I have open orders with crude oil which should be closed by the last week. Whatever, I will close my trades very soon to avoid the unwanted situation due to the deal closing system. But according to my capital and the margin, I can survive the deal closing system as if we won’t see any bearish breakout from the crude oil.
The Trading Plan: Trading plans for the next week.
I have mentioned before that. I have current orders from crude oil and I will close these orders very soon. After closing crude oil orders, I will go through with the Gold again to grab some handsome profits with a short period. Although for few weeks, the gold metal is looking a unpredictable market and we have seen already some swing movement from the gold. So, my total trading plan will be with only the gold although according to the situation of the market, I will take some more chances with crude oil too.
The Analysis & Forecast of the USD Index:
Headline: After 7-weeks, the US Dollar Index has pulled back its price to the bearish trend and expecting the dollar index price below the 90.00.
- The US Dollar Index showed an immediate reaction to the bearish trend by the last week.
- It has shown the 0.30% of drops by the last session.
- There is a strong support level around the 89.20 price mark and the further bad data from the USD currency will push the USD Index to the bearish trend to break the strong support level.
- The weekly lower price is at 90.10 and the weekly higher price is around 91.00 price mark.
In long timeframe, the price of the dollar index fully on bearish trend although since a couple of weeks, the dollar index was making a recovery to the bullish trend. But suddenly the USD Index has started its movement to the bearish trend after publishing the bad jobs data of the USA. So, since that time, the USD Index was moving to downwards and the price has created a weekly lower price at 90.10 price mark.
The stimulation will be started soon that in the coming weeks, we have some important news on the USD currency which will make changes on the USD trading although still right now, the dollar index is on depression. Within a few hours, the market will be reopening again and at the beginning of the week, we will see some recovery movements from the dollar index to the bullish trend. But, overall. I am looking forward here a selling chance with the USD Index, and it should be trading below 89.50 price mark very soon.
The Forecast of the GBP/USD:
Headline: The stimulation of the GBP currency is pressuring the GBP/USD to move upwards, and now it's aiming to reach above the 1.4500 price mark.
- The GBP/USD has concerned its price above the resistance area and now it has created a new trading region above the 1.4000 price mark.
- The Brexit concern should make a selling pressure of the GBP/USD but the weakness of the dollar index is hampering it.
- The price has declined all the corrective resistance line and now its trading above the 35-months higher price.
- The weakness of the US Dollar Index will push the GBP/USD to trade above 1.4500 price mark by this month.
The Water War: UK is looking to stop the imports of European mineral waters, foods, seeds, potatoes, etc.
A Couple of months ago, the EU-UK trade deal has been done but we did not see any huge impact on GBP and EUR trading. Traders were in fear with the Brexit deal and when it was confirmed as like me, all traders were expecting a huge volatile market from the GBP market. Whatever, we did not see any major movements but the GBP currency was strengthening after the EU-UK trade deal.
The issue has been created with the EU by the UK government that now the UK government is looking to restrict imports of the EU mineral waters and others food. The restrictions will be the potential restriction on the importing of mineral water, others food product and seed of potatoes.
In weekly timeframe, the price of the GBP/USD fully on bullish trend although the last week, there was a week for the buyer of GBP/USD. There was a huge bullish breakout from the GBP/USD pair because of the weakness of the dollar index. According to the Brexit concern, the GBP currency should lose its strength but the UK government is trying to work with the GBP currency in this pandemic situation.
The price of the GBP/USD fully on bullish mode which made 35-month higher price by the last week at 1.4034. After crossing the 1.4000 price mark, the price looks more stable and the massive vaccination is making the strongest of the GBP currency.
Whatever, with the technical perspective, the GBP/USD is on oversold position through the RSI indicator. And there is a more chance to see a further drop from the dollar index which will make pressure on the GBP/USD to move upwards. So, I am looking forward here a potential buying chances with the GBP/USD pair which should be traded above the 1.4500 price mark by next a couple of weeks.
The Forecast of the Gold:
Headline: The Gold has set its price to the bearish trend and now it's aiming to trade below the $1,750 price mark.
- The Gold has made the weekly low again after the November’20 around the $1,760 price mark.
- It has created an initial support level at $1,760 price mark.
- The bearish bias is indicating the further drops from the gold below the $1,750 price mark.
- The recovery mode was not started by the last week, and it will be stimulating if we see a further massive drop from the dollar index.
- The gold looks still on the depression and this depression will push the gold price below the $1,700 price mark.
The last week, we saw a massive movement from the gold although the gold has pulled back its price downwards and it has created 3 months lower price at $1,760.The last week, we saw a massive movement from the gold although the gold has pulled back its price downwards and it has created 3 months lower price at $1,760.
The Gold has done a couple of tries to make a quick recover, but the gold was not strengthening and the most of the time, the gold is not caring the dollar index. But the massive weakness of the dollar index will push the gold to move upwards.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating more selling chances for the gold because of its overbought situation. But the downtrend should not be resumed if we wont get the further stimulation of the dollar index. Most of the USD traders are expecting a bearish breakout from the dollar index which will make pressure on the Gold to move upwards. So, I am looking here a potential buying chances with gold metal with higher amount of the capital if you want to survive on the market for a long time.
The Forecast of the EUR/USD:
Headline: The EUR/USD has rejected by 1.2145 price mark and pulled back to downwards again to trade below 1.2120 price mark.
- The weakness of the dollar index has turned the EUR/USD price to a bullish trend.
- It rejected by the 1.2145 price marks by the last Friday and then it was trending to trade below the support line.
- The EUR currency was strengthening, and the strengthening of the EUR currency will help to break the resistance line to make a long higher price above the resistance line.
At the beginning of the last Friday, the EUR/USD has created the weekly higher price at 1.2145 price mark. Before the end of the last session, the EUR/USD price was trading around the 1.2120 prices although the EUR currency was not proper strengthening. If it got proper strength, then it would make the monthly top price.
The price of the pair has lost its strength after reaching around the 1.2150 price marks whereas there is a strong resistance level at 1.2150 price mark which should be broken by the last week. The actual movement was from the dollar index which was weakening by the last week and EUR/USD traders were expecting a huge bullish breakout from the EUR/USD pair just above the 1.2200 price mark.
With some technical indicators, the EUR/USD should make a long bullish breakout by the next week whereas the dollar index should lose its strength to create a bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. On weekly basis, the price is fully on bullish trend and the technical outlook is asking to reach above the 1.2250 price mark by next week.