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Thread: fadila's - Trading journal

  1. #5341 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    I opened multiple positions on various assets last Friday, which adds more to my active positions. That will make it difficult for me to navigate between all of these trades at the same time, but I don't mind the challenge, and this is something that I have to get used to because it helps minimize the risk.


    Active Trades:



    USD/JPY:



    I was expecting a positive performance from the US dollar before the Non-Farm Employment Change was released, but things did not go as expected. Despite that, and from a technical point of view, the current situation still looks promising with the market closing above 109.32, which, as I mentioned in previous posts, is critical for maintaining the bullish momentum in the medium and long term.



    Bitcoin:



    As you know, I had long positions on this currency for a while, but I closed them at a significant loss after I found that the price behavior predicts the continuation of the long-term bearish correction as the price may continue to decline towards the support level of 19717.8.

    Now I see that there is a symmetrical triangle formation on the H4 chart, and as we can see on the attached chart, the price is already trading below the lower side of the pattern, which gives us a good selling opportunity, although I didn't need this as I held my position before the breach.

    For these positions, I will take level 26466.80 as my first target, while the second will be at the support level of 19717.8.






    GBP/CHF:

    After the market closed, things started to look negative on this pair and I started thinking that the inverted head and shoulders pattern might fail and turn into a continuation triangle pattern, as shown in the attached chart.






    I will not be surprised by this because my target from the long positions was within a bullish correction, while the price may continue to fall on the daily chart to test the support level 1 and this goes in line with the proposed triangle formation.
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  2. #5342 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.


    Closed Trades:


    Immediately after the market opened, I decided to close my long trades on the GBP/CHF, according to the technical analysis that I shared in the previous post, which indicates the possibility of the continuation of the bearish correction towards the daily support level of 1.2225. I will be waiting for the breach of the triangle pattern from the lower side to search for a selling opportunity.




    Active Trades:


    Silver:

    Shortly before the market closed, I opened multiple short positions in silver, and that was based on multi-timeframe technical analysis, although the price managed to recover from level 26.9827, which corresponds to a previous analysis where I indicated that the price completed a bullish ABCD pattern at that level.



    Multiple technical patterns in the daily frame:

    As I said, the current short positions are based on several factors starting from the daily frame, where the price has completed a bearish harmonic pattern at the highest price in the previous month (28.687) (chart 1).
    Also in the daily frame, two PIN BAR patterns helped push the price to break below the daily uptrend, adding more support to the bearish scenario (chart 2).

    The recent pullback resulted in a negative engulfing pattern, which the price is expected to test at level 27.80 (this will mean testing the broken uptrend as well).





    More bearish sentiments from the weekly frame:

    The weekly frame is not much different, as the price formed a pin bar pattern three weeks ago, while the previous weeks candle closed in the form of a Doji pattern, which is ideal for me, as the high level of this candle would be perfect as a stop loss level (28.505).






    My take profit will be at 26.470, which represents the upper side of a fresh demand zone in the H4 frames according to Chart 1 (minus the spread).


    ---------- Post added at 08:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:18 AM ----------

    Crude oil:



    As I said in a previous post, I had long positions on crude oil, through which I targeted the psychological level of $70, but unfortunately, I did not commit to this and closed them early after I thought that the price would not reach that level.

    At the beginning of today's trading hours, crude oil prices rose to reach that level, but I didn't realize this until it was too late, although I don't think it's too late to collect some profits from this opportunity, because while I was busy, the price formed a bearish pin bar with its tail touching 70.

    Immediately after seeing this, I opened four short positions with 0.01 lot size, targeting the support level of 67.07.



    Last edited by fadilah; 07-06-2021 at 04:40 AM.
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  3. #5343 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.


    Active Trades:



    Silver:

    Silver:

    The performance of my trades on silver was positive at the beginning of yesterday, but later the price recovered, driven by the weakness of the US dollar. Despite this, the situation is still within the range of the previous analysis, where I mentioned that the price may test the broken trend and the engulfing pattern at 27.80. So probably this is what is happening right now.

    I will not close these trades manually as I did before. It is going to be interesting to see how this ends.






    USD/JPY:

    Things are not looking good for this position because the price is approaching the H4 uptrend line, and if the price continues to decline like this, we may have a confirmed corrective flag pattern that supports more bearishness in the medium term. If this happens, I will close my buy position and open a sell position to recover some of my losses.






    Bitcoin:

    Among all of my current trades, it seems that Bitcoin is the only one that is moving according to the technical analysis without problems, as the price declined towards the support level of 33309.40 in the H4 frame yesterday after testing the symmetrical triangle pattern as shown in the attached chart.

    There is still a long way to go before reaching my first target, and we also have the support level of 29752.50, which may be a problem in the short term, but I am optimistic about these situations because Bitcoin prices are expected to make a deeper downward correction before making a new high.



    Last edited by fadilah; 08-06-2021 at 04:52 AM.
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  4. #5344 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.


    The market did not give much yesterday as most of the assets moved within a narrow range, which made it difficult for me to generate good profits, although at some point the total profit from all of my active positions exceeded $100. That was not enough because most of the trades were still far from the targets.




    Closed trades:


    I said yesterday that I will not close my short positions in silver, although they gave me a good profit after they were floating with a total loss of $90. Anyway, I did not get any losses from these positions because I closed them at the entry-level.

    Also, I had short positions on crude oil, which were floating on some profits before the price recovered and breached the psychological level of 70. My total loss from these trades is $16.




    Active Trades:


    USD/JPY:

    This position was also floating on a $20 loss, but the price started to recover in the early hours after the market opening, which reduced the losses to 15 dollars. I changed my take profit to the resistance level of 110.20 because I don't think the long-term scenario will work.





    USD/CAD:

    The pair is currently ranging around the weekly support level of 1.2065, and as we can see, it has been moving in a sideways range around this level since last week.

    From a technical point of view As long as we do not have a weekly candle closing below this level, we can not say that the trend will continue in the bearish direction. However, in the short and medium-term, I expect the price to test the resistance level of 1.2240, and from there, we may get a better price to sell based on this long-term forecast https://forum.mt5.com/showthread.php...7#post15225617.






    Last edited by fadilah; 09-06-2021 at 04:19 AM.
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  5. #5345 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    Based on my recent performance, it appears to me that relying on long-term targets is not working for me, as most of the trades that I closed on a loss were floating on a good profit before those profits turned into losses, such as my positions in crude oil, silver, and Bitcoin, so I may switch to medium-term targets, and see if this will give better results and if this will improve my overall performance.




    Closed trades:


    Unfortunately, I had to close my Bitcoin positions at a loss of $17 after it was floating on a $100 profit earlier this week. As I said before, these are not the only trades in which I encountered this problem, it happened on most of my recent trades, so I have to find a way to fix this.




    Active Trades:


    GBP/CHF:

    As I said in my previous follow-up to this pair, the bearish scenario is now confirmed, after the price managed to breach the corrective triangle pattern on the daily frame, and based on this, I opened a sell position which is now floating on a profit of 12 dollars, which is more than half of my losses from the previous buy positions on the pair.



    The price action in the H4 chart indicates more bearishness:

    On the H4 frame, we can see that the price managed to close below the support level of 1.2647. This is a positive sign for my position, but there is still a strong support level at 1.2580 that could push the price up to stay within the daily sideways range.




    Change of plans regarding my target:

    Originally, my target was at the daily support level 1.2220 based on the previous analysis, but I decided to choose a more conservative target based on the harmonic butterfly pattern.




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  6. #5346 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    It is unusual not to have a good number of high-impact events on the last day of the week, but that is the case today, as the only high-impact event is the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, which may have a noticeable impact on the performance of the pound today.




    Active Trades:


    Silver:

    I opened short-term buy positions in silver, targeting the H1 resistance level of 28.180 on the hourly chart after I saw that the price had managed to breach the sideways range between 27.878 and 27.440.

    I don't think that I will face any problems with this trading as the price in the H4 frame is still moving within the corrective channel and my target is also within this channel.






    GBP/CHF:

    After about $20 of profits, the pair moved to my entry-level again, but the price was unable to close above 1.2715 on the daily chart, which would have given us a bullish engulfing pattern.

    Today is the last trading day of this week and the current weekly candle does not look bearish enough, as the price needs to close at levels near 1.26242 to ensure the continuation of the bearish pressure.





    I don't want to close this trade too soon because Andrew Bailey's speech may have a negative impact on the pound.

    USD/JPY:

    I had a chance to exit this position at my entry level yesterday. Now I could face bigger losses if the price continues to fall, especially if the weekly candle closes below 109.32. Besides that, the US dollar failed to breach last week's high, and now it is trading at 90.00, so it may be ready to break the support level of 89.80 if we have enough bearish momentum today, which would have a very bad impact on my trade.





    Last edited by fadilah; 11-06-2021 at 05:21 AM.
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  7. #5347 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    Closed trades:


    As I said yesterday, my trades in silver had a very high success rate, especially since the target was short-term and within the sideways range in the daily frame. It didn't take long for the price to reach my target, resulting in a profit of $53.



    While looking through my charts today, I noticed that the price began to fall after testing the broken bullish trend line on the daily frame for the second time at 128.18, which reminded me of Ramazan's comment on one of my previous posts when I had long positions with a stop loss at 28.505, so I believe he was correct after all.





    I will keep a close eye on this and wait for the price to breach the trend that connects 27.415 and 26.990 to look for a short trading opportunity.

    I have also closed my short position on the GBP / CHF because the price kept ranging between 1.2696 and 1.2654 throughout the day, but I will not give up as I will be looking for a bearish setup below the daily support level of 1.258.




    Active trades:



    EUR / JPY:

    Based on the price behavior in the daily frame, we can conclude that the pair is in a bullish trend, which is taking place within a clear bullish channel frame, as shown on the attached chart. However, with the price testing the upper side of this channel early this month, a corrective decline towards the lower side was expected.



    My trade was based on the price action last Thursday, after a rejection from the Fibonacci level of 61.8, to create a lower high in the H4 frame.
    Now, we can see that the price has managed to break the support level of 132.90, which means that the current correction will continue next week.






    Note: I can also consider the head and shoulders formation on the H4 frame with the support level of 132.90 as a neckline, which means that the price will test that level and 131.73 will be the classic target for this pattern, but for me, I will be targeting 132.31 to stay within the bullish channel.



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  8. #5348 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    This week will be both profitable and dangerous at the same time because it has a lot of high-impact economic events, especially concerning the US dollar.




    Active Trades:


    USD/JPY:

    As you are aware, I am still holding my position in this pair for the third week, which is probably the longest of any trade I've taken in the last three years because I rarely hold a position for more than a week.



    Last Friday, I stated that the price had to be able to close above 109.32 for this position to remain active. And as we can see, the price has already tested this level several times and managed to close at 109.68, which means that it may be ready to resume the upward trend, especially since the US dollar showed signs of recovery in the medium term and closed at the resistance level of 90.57. And since it is coming from a strong support level in the daily frame, I don't think it will be hard to breach 90.57 at the beginning of this week.






    USD/CAD:

    Just like the USD/JPY, the pair showed positive momentum last Friday and finally managed to breach the sideways range as expected, but it is still possible that the price will decline in the short term to test the H4 support level of 1.2132 before heading to my target.





    Note: Originally, I considered the bullish movement to be just a medium-term correction, but given the price behavior in the weekly frame (2 Doji patterns at a weekly support level), and the fact that the pair has been moving in a downtrend since last year, it has become possible for the current bullish movement to target higher levels with a long-term correction.




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  9. #5349 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    As I said in my previous post, we have a lot of high-impact economic events this week and perhaps the most important event will be the FOMC meeting. I already have active positions in the USD/JPY and USD/CAD, and I am buying the US dollar in both trades, but I expect the US dollar to perform well at the beginning of the week, and this may be enough for me to achieve my targets before the meeting.

    In today's post, I will discuss my new positions, which are fresh trading opportunities in gold and the NZD/USD.


    Active Trades:


    Gold:

    Although gold in the weekly frame breached the corrective trend line, it did not test the broken trend properly, and this is what I relied on in my long-term analysis of gold in general.

    Immediately after the opening of the market, the price started to decline, completing what it started last week, but what is new today is that the price was able to break the bullish trend line on the daily chart.

    As you can see on the attached chart, I expect an ABCD correction that ends at level 1845.17, but my target will be at 1850.00, despite this, the price could decline to lower levels, according to what I mentioned in the detailed analysis of gold here.





    NZD/USD:

    I opened a short position in this pair based on a long-term analysis (here), but we are now seeing clear signs of weakness in the medium and short term.
    On the daily chart, we find that the price was able to close below the level of 0.7135, and this may mean that the price is already out of the sideways range in this time frame, which lasted for nearly two months.



    Even though the trade is based on a long-term analysis, my target will be at the H4 support level of 0.7066.






    Last edited by fadilah; Yesterday at 03:30 AM.
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  10. #5350 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    Closed trades:


    With high accuracy, gold moved according to the plan from my last post, which helped me collect 50 dollars and, as we can see, immediately after the price reached the level of 1845.17 where the ABCD pattern was completed, the price started to recover on the hourly chart, but I will not think of trading in gold today. I will wait for the right price action and make my decision based on that.



    You can find out more about my plans for gold here ( Gold technical analysis).


    Active Trades:


    EUR/JPY:

    Yesterday, the Japanese yen was weak against all currencies, which negatively affected my position in this pair, as the price recovered after finding some support at the level of 132.65, turning my profits into losses.
    After seeing this, I had to use a stop loss as the weakness of the JPY could continue today as well.

    STOP LOSS: 132.31







    GBP/JPY:

    I opened a buy position on this pair after noticing that the price had breached the corrective trend on the H4 frame, but this may be a bad idea if the pair is attempting to form a head and shoulders pattern.



    For the pair to reach my target at 156.41, I will need the price to be able to first breach the resistance level of 155.77, but if the price declines from the upper side of the price channel, this may increase the possibility of having a head and shoulders pattern, and therefore, the price will keep moving down to levels near 152.40.






    NZD/USD:

    It seems that the NZD/USD is trying to create a new support level at 0.711, but it still has the hourly resistance level of 0.7164 to push the price down again. Also, it may be possible to test the engulfing pattern on the daily chart at 0.717. This does not bother me because, in both cases, the price will be trading below the bearish trend line in the H4 frame.
    By the way, I set the stop loss at 0.7211. It's a little bigger than my take profit, but I think that's the safest place for that.




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