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Thread: fadila's - Trading journal

  1. #5421 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    Yesterday, I made an analysis of the US dollar index (link), in which I expect the levels that may be targeted by the downward correction, which are 93.70, 93.40, and 93.16.
    Level 93.16 is located near the Fibonacci level 50 of the last ascending wave, which makes it very suitable to buy the US dollar, but it will need to breach the ascending trend line first.





    Today's economic events:

    As you know, I hold buying positions on crude oil, and by looking at the economic calendar for today, we see that we have an OPEC Meeting and an OPEC-JMMC Meeting, which are classified as high-impact events, so let's see how this will reflect on my trading and if it helps to reach the target faster.





    Closed transactions:

    Nothing.




    Active trades:




    • USD/CHF

    The USD/CHF pair is moving near the ascending trend line on the H4 frame, and if it does not find support for the medium-term bullish trend there, the breach of the trend line will mean targeting the area between the levels 0.9227 and 0.92000, just as it happens with the US dollar index.

    Maybe I will take advantage of that and open new buy positions at those levels.




    • Crude oil:

    There was a small bullish gap this morning, and the price quickly fell back to close it, which is a good thing as this happening early cancels any potential impact from it,and as we can see, it is going well while waiting for the outcome of the OPEC meeting.

    I may close some positions this morning to avoid high losses in case things don't go as expected.




    That's all for now.
    Last edited by fadilah; 04-10-2021 at 08:59 AM.
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  2. #5422 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    It seems that the US dollar has found support at the level of 93.70, and this was the first target from the previous analysis, but it is still too early to consider buying the US dollar. We need a confirmed breach of the resistance level 94.47 or the decline to continue towards the last target of 93.16.


    Today's economic events:


    By looking at the calendar, I think that the ISM Services PMI will have a strong impact on the US dollar, and this will certainly clear the situation of the US dollar index, so I am looking forward to seeing how this will affect the market. If there's going to be a wide range of movement, I would probably use my indicator to get easy trading setups without the need for complex analysis.




    Closed transactions:

    As I mentioned in yesterday's analysis, I closed most of the positions on crude oil before the bullish rally to reduce the risk. Besides that, I executed short-term buying positions in silver, which resulted in about $70 total profit.




    Active trades:




    • USD/CHF:

    The pair was able to breach the bullish trend to find support at the level of 0.9235, as shown on the attached chart, which is very close to the target area of ​​the bearish scenario in yesterdays post, but I dont know if the current recovery is to test the broken trend or if it will continue towards the target area.

    If the Dollar Index manages to breach the level of 94.74 before the USD/CHF reaches the trend line, this will be good for my long position.




    • Crude oil:

    I still held the main buying position on crude oil, which I opened at the psychological level of 74.00. Personally, I don't know what happened in the OPEC meeting, and I don't care, but it seems that whatever the results of those meetings were, they came in line with the technical analysis, and this is enough for me.

    As we can see, the price of crude oil came close to my targets yesterday before starting to move in a narrow range on the 15M frame. There may be a decline to test the support level at 76.45, but I expect to reach the target first.



    Last edited by fadilah; 05-10-2021 at 09:59 AM.
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  3. #5423 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    The recovery of the US dollar Index continues after reaching the support level of 93.70. On the H4 chart.we may have a bullish crossover on the MACD as we see on the attached chart, and if this happens, the dollar may test the level of 94.60.





    Today's economic events:

    Today, the RBNZ released the Official Cash Rate, which was raised to 0.50 as expected. In addition, we have the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Crude Oil Inventories.





    Closed transactions:

    Crude oil reached the target level of 78.62, giving me about $440 profit. Besides that, I decided to get rid of the buying position on USD/CHF at a loss of $25 and wait for another opportunity if the price returns to move above the ascending trend line.





    Active trades:




    • Crude oil:

    Once again, I bought crude oil after the price breached the bullish channel on the H4 frame, which might push crude oil to test the psychological level of 84.00 in the long term, taking into consideration the possibility of testing the support level 76.45 before that. We'll see how that goes after the release of Crude Oil Inventories. It's a bit risky, but it's worth it.

    I have already provided more details about the technical reasons why I believe that Crude Oil is going to test the 84.00 level in this post ().




    • AUD/USD:

    Yesterday, I bought the AUD/USD pair based on the fact that the price breached the downtrend line on the hourly chart, in addition to the positive divergence between the price and the indicator on the H4r chart. The trade was profitable at first, but with the release of the NZD Official Cash, the pair retreated towards the support areas of 0.7260 and 0.7250, which put the pair in a sideways trading range.

    It's also possible that we now have a double top pattern on the H1 frame and that wouldn't be good for my trade for sure. Anyway, I'm usinga stop loss in this position at 0.7222 and I don't think I will close it manually.

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  4. #5424 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    As was expected, after the bullish crossover occurred on the MACD indicator, the US dollar rebounded in another attempt to test the level 94.60, and as you know, I am selling the US dollar against the AUD/USD and the USD/CAD, so the weakness of the US dollar will be in my favor, although technically I do not see the possibility for this to happen.

    Today's economic events:

    Today is the big day for the US dollar as we have the Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, which would shake the market. Besides that, we have the Canadian employment data, which may push me to close the current positions a bit early.





    Closed transactions:


    Before crude oil corrected towards the psychological level of 75.00, I had to figure out a way to manage my trades on it. When I realized that the decline would inevitably happen, I opened a sell position, which gave a profit of 128 dollars. After that, I opened additional buy positions with a target for all positions at 75.20.

    The original buy trade gave a loss of $105, while the additional trades made $119 and $62.




    Active Trades:




    • AUD/USD:

    Fortunately, although the price of AUD/USD fell close to the stop loss level, it rebounded later because that was a strong support area and now we have a confirmed head and shoulders pattern after the price crossed the neckline. Accordingly, I moved the stop loss towards the level of 0.7257 to reduce the loss to only $ 30, while I moved the take profit towards the level of 0.7435.

    A retest of the neckline will present a new buying opportunity.



    • USD/CAD:

    I did not discuss this short position because I suggested this trading opportunity in the Live Trading Discussion section two days ago, so more details can be found here USD/CAD technical analysis by Fadilah.
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  5. #5425 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    The Non-Farm Employment Change was released less than expected, which negatively affected the US dollar. The impact was not that strong, probably because ofthe decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.8% compared to 5.2% last month.



    On the other hand, there was a significant increase in employment for Canada this month, as it rose to 157k compared to 90k last month, which contributed to pushing the USD/CAD pair in a sharp decline towards my target, and if you check the analysis on which I sold the pair based on, you will see that I am still expecting more bearishness, especially if the price continues to trade below the level of 1.2487 until the end of the month.



    Closed transactions:

    Yesterday I closed the short position on the EUR/CHF. Although I am sure it will continue to fall, this pair is very slow, so I decided to close it at a profit of 4 dollars.

    Besides that, the USD/CAD pair reached the target level, giving me a $75 profit.




    Active Trades:




    • AUD/USD:

    At the moment, I have one active position on the AUD/USD, which is floating at a profit of $20 after it was floating on double the amount as a result of negative data on the US dollar, but the pair declined later to close at the level of 0.7300.

    I am still optimistic as long as the price is trading above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern mentioned in my last post. Also, the market closed nearthe high of the two Doji candles on the weekly frame, so I expect another positive week to close above the level of 0.731424, which supports the medium-term bullish outlook for AUD/USD.

    Last edited by fadilah; 09-10-2021 at 12:02 PM.
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  6. #5426 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    This week, the US dollar started with positive momentum, trying to test the level of 94.60, which by the way, represents a resistance level on the daily chart, but the situation may become different starting from today, as we are about to get a negative crossover on the MACD indicator on the daily frame, which may weaken the US dollar, and this, in turn, will support my current trade on the AUD/USD.

    closed transactions:

    Nothing.

    Active Trades:




    • AUD/USD:

    At some point, the floating profit from this position reached more than $90, but there was a short-term downward correction after the release of economic events related to the US dollar yesterday.

    Technically, this comes after a negative divergence between the price and the MACD indicator on the hourly frame, but by looking at the position of the US dollar index, we may get support for the AUD/USD from the current levels, and in any case, I have already moved the stop loss to the entry-level.



    • EUR/JPY:

    It seems that the EUR/JPY may end the sideways trading on the daily chart if it manages to maintain the current levels until the end of the week. Looking at this week's candles on the daily chart, we can notice a strong demand, which may continue to push the pair towards the psychological level of 134.00

    I have not yet set a take profit or a stop loss, and I will most likely not do so until next week because, as previously stated, we will need a weekly close above the resistance level of 130.70 for a confirmation.


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  7. #5427 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    Well, according to what I said yesterday about the US dollar index, we got a negative crossover on the MACD indicator in the daily frame, as the dollar continued to decline, which helped to restore the profits of the AUD/USD position to above 90 dollars again, but I expect this to be only the beginning.

    Take a look at the attached chart. It is the daily chart of the US dollar index, and as we can see, the negative crossover yesterday came to confirm the divergence on the MACD indicator. Therefore, we can expect the continuation of the medium-term decline towards the level of 93.70 again, or perhaps to lower levels, especially since the divergence is not limited to the daily frame only. We also have another negative divergence on the H4 frame, but this is not an invitation to sell the US dollar, it is for me to maintain the current position on the AUD/USD.




    Closed transactions:

    Nothing yet.


    Active trades:





    • AUD/USD:

    As I mentioned at the beginning, I still maintain this position, and this is not only because of the technical analysis of the US dollar index, as the pair has already found support near the level 0.7300, in addition to that it is now trading above a failed head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart, which is a good continuation signal.



    This price behavior on the hourly frame resulted in an engulfing pattern on the H4 time frame, in addition to the fact that the price is trading today above a bearish Doji pattern formed on Tuesday on the daily chart.

    All these technical factors prompted me to move my stop loss to the level of 0.7324, so practically, even if the price falls before reaching the target level, I will still get 37 dollars from this position.

    By the way, we had the Australian employment data this morning, and although the unemployment rate came less than expected, it is still greater than last month, and the employment change came less than expected. This is why we had a decline in AUD/USD prices.




    • EUR/JPY:

    There is not much to say about this position. Things are going well, and it looks like the bullish momentum will continue for another day. By the way, we now have a confirmed double bottom pattern at the level of 128.00, so I think that the psychological level of 134.00 may be just the beginning as a target.


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  8. #5428 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    In the previous post, I expected the continuation of the medium-term decline of the US dollar index towards the level of 93.70, and as we can see on the attached chart, I was right to some extent, as the dollar is now trading at the level 94.00.



    This decline helped me achieve more gains from selling the US dollar against the Australian dollar, and although I closed this position, it is expected that the US dollar's decline will continue this week due to the closing of last week's candle in the form of a bearish pin bar pattern, in addition to the bearish divergence on the daily chart which I mentioned in my last post.



    Closed transactions:

    On Thursday, I closed the long position on the AUD/USD pair manually. Despite that, as I mentioned at the beginning of the post, the medium-term recovery in AUD/USD prices is expected to continue, targeting the formation of the AB=CD pattern on the daily chart at level 0.7542.

    This trade gave me 148 pips ($120) which is a high number for a medium-range pair like the AUD/USD.





    Active Trades:


    • EUR/JPY:

    Another success was achieved on the EUR/JPY, as the price rallied at the end of last week due to the weakness of the Japanese yen against the major currencies.
    I postponed setting the stop loss and take profit levels to see how the market closed last week, and to be honest, I was expecting a positive performance, but not to this degree.



    This bullish rally resulted in more confirmations of the strength of the bullish trend, as we have a long bullish candle on the weekly chart (strong demand) accompanied by a positive crossover on the MACD indicator, and this will present a familiar scenario, which is?? Yes, we will be facing a bullish scenario, in which the pair breaches its last resistance level (the weekly resistance level of 134.00) to form a bearish divergence.



    Moving down to the daily chart, and with the double bottom pattern that I mentioned in my last post, we can get a more accurate target as the next destination will be the Fibonacci level 113 (at134.90), where the pair will form an extended harmonic bat pattern, which is located near a weekly supply zone, making it the perfect target.
    As for the stop loss, I think I will place it below the support level of 130.21.







    That's all for now. Unfortunately, for the last few days, I have been facing some problems with the internet connection, so I may not be able to follow up on new trading opportunities. Hopefully, this problem will be solved before the end of the week.
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  9. #5429 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello everyone.

    Despite the modest recovery of the US dollar yesterday on the hourly frame, the bearish trend is still dominant, which seems to continue after breaching the corrective flag pattern on this time frame, and although I am somewhat conservative about the idea of ​​selling the US dollar, I relied on this to buy the NZD/USD pair in light of the strength of the New Zealand dollar.




    Today's economic events:


    There are no high-impact economic events on the US dollar today, but we do have two medium-impact events, and this will be enough to support the medium-term bearish trend of the US dollar index and help achieve some gains by the end of the day.






    Closed transactions:

    At the moment, I am trying to learn how to manage floating profits in my trades, as I have gone through some situations where the trade has turned from good profits to losses, and this is not a good experience, especially when the positions are held for a long time.



    Yesterday I decided to close half of the buy position on the EUR/JPY at about 55 dollars, so even if the price falls towards the stop loss, there will be no significant losses (I will only lose about 5 dollars), making it a risk-free trade.



    Active Trades:




    • Crude oil:

    Crude oil prices approached the psychological level of 84.00 before starting to decline, forming a bearish pin bar pattern on the daily chart. I have noticed this happen many times as the price retreats before reaching the important levels with a small difference for a correction, and this time it is happening with a bearish divergence between the price and the MACD on the H4 chart, making it worth the risk.



    I'm relying on the bearish pin bar pattern to determine the stop loss, which means that it will be at the level of 83.92, while the target will be at the level of 79.90.

    • GBP/NZD:

    Although I consider the GBP/NZD a risky pair, I think that we have a good trading opportunity here, as the price tested the daily resistance level of 1.9684 to resume the sharp decline that started two months ago from the psychological level of 2.000, and although the price is now trading near the daily support level of 1.9338, I expect it to be breached today, especially since we have a negative crossover on the MACD indicator.



    My target will be at the level of 1.9286, which is very conservative considering that the price may be on its way towards the level of 1.8988 to form an AB=CD pattern.







    That's it for now, and before I finish, some members have requested the MACD indicator I use. You can find it in the attachments on this post, or you can search for the phrase "MACD Histogram WIS" on Google.


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  10. #5430 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Subsribed 6
    Hello everyone.

    As was expected, the US dollar index continued to decline after testing the flag pattern on the hourly frame, and this helped me a lot in my NZD/USD buying position. Although I expected the weakness of the US dollar to continue until the end of yesterday, the decline that occurred before the New York session was enough for me.

    Today's economic events:

    Today we have a good number of strong to medium-term economic events mostly about the Canadian dollar, so I will be taking a position on the USD/CAD hoping to make a quick profit without having to wait for a long time, but as you know, this will involve some risk.




    Closed transactions:

    Another successful day ended with closing the sell position on the NZD/USD manually near the target level at a profit of $60, in addition to price hitting the target of the GBP/NZD sell position, which gave me about $57.



    Active Trades:



    • EUR/JPY:

    The sharp bullish rally of the EUR/JPY continues for the ninth consecutive day while it is approaching its highest price since the end of 2018, and as I said in a previous post, I expect a breach of the psychological resistance at 134.00 to form a bearish harmonic pattern, but even this may not be enough to stop the bullish momentum, because breaching this level will open the door to targets reaching 149.8 in the long term.



    • Crude oil:

    The price of crude oil has come close to my stop loss many times since yesterday, and to be honest, I was planning to close the position at the entry-level at some point, but I changed my main about it later because the size of the risk is low compared to the profits that can be achieved if the price reaches the target, so I will keep this position and see how things go today.



    • USD/CAD;

    The USD/CAD pair has been in a downtrend on the H4chart since the beginning of the month and based on the current price behavior, I think we have a chance for a short to long term recovery as yesterday's candle closed in the form of a bullish pin bar pattern, in addition to the positive divergence between the price and the indicator MACD on the H4 time frame.

    The stop loss, as usual, will be based on the pin bar pattern, i.e. at level 1.2312, while I will be conservative regarding the take profit level and settle for a target at 1.2447 although the price may try to test the resistance level at 1.249344.

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