Youcefstyles's - Trading Journal

[Youcefstyles]

Yesterday was a good day for the US dollar. The dollar index made a good retracement from 90.10 level to the current level of 90.80 which is the highest level for now amid expectations of further economic recovery and a possible acceleration in inflation rates. Markets will be awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve Committee meeting. That is a detailed report from the meeting held by the Federal Reserve Committee two weeks ago. The results of the meeting provide accurate indications of the monetary policy. I still think that the US dollar will turn down again and go to the 89.17 level.

The inflation data in Britain were released and were positive and better than market expectations. Inflation increased by 0.7% against expectations of growth of about 0.6%. Core inflation had an increase of 1.4% too. That is positive for the Pound for the long term.

Trades update:

The EURGBP is still moving down against my previous analysis. I was expecting another wave down which was the Plan B. You should always have an alternative plan if the price goes against your expectations. But I have never been taught that the price can go lower than the 0.8700 level. I have added 2 more positions and I think that's enough for now. I will wait for it.

EURUSD waves analysis:

I missed this trade because of the EURGBP trade setup. I was planning to sell the EURUSD after making a new high but I couldn't because the margin level could decrease below 1000% and that's risky for the account. The price completed one bullish wave and the current movement is a correction. The price can start moving up from the current level to the final target for this year around 1.24-1.25 levels.


Trading signal:

Buy EURUSD at the current level of 1.2065.
Sl level at 1.1950.
Take profits level at 1.2340 then 1.24.


Good luck.

[Youcefstyles]

The results of the FOMC meeting have been released yesterday. It was negative for the US dollar according to my view. The US dollar started moving down today during the Frankfurt session. The US dollar was so strong yesterday after the Retail Sales release which was very positive. But the FED announced that it is possible that monetary policy will become more expansionary than expected or that households will spend more than expected. We should not forget about the US stimulus package which the US Federal Reserve confirmed its importance and that the Senate is close to passing it on the 22nd of February.

AUD is taking advantage of USD weakness:

The AUDUSD pair is trading near the previous high around 0.7800 level. I'm sure that the price will break it again. It can also continue moving up to the 0.7900 level due to the USD weakness. The Australian labor data comes better than expected. That will attract more investors to the Australian dollar. The employment change recorded an increase of 29.1 thousand new jobs in January while the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.6% to 6.4%. That is a very good sign for the economy.

For today we have no more important data. We should wait for tomorrow's data (EUR, UK, and US data).

Trades update:


Yesterday I decided to close all my buy trades on the EURGBP. It was bad trades and it's okay to admit that. I closed my trades with a total loss of 58$. I hope that I can recover it soon. It's important to exit the market at the right time. We should never hold the losing trades because the situation will become worst. If I'm still holding those trades now then I could have more than a $100 loss. I have sold the USDCHF to make some profits again. I'm using a 1.20 lot size but I have sold it at a good level. I'm not using any TP or SL for now. I will close it manually.


EURUSD update:


I'm still expecting the same view. The price started the 3rd wave and don't get surprised if you see the EURUSD above 1.22 level before the weekend. The 3rd wave is usually the strongest. You can buy it but your SL level should be below the 1.2020 level. I decided to sell the USDCHF and you can sell it too. I suggest you stay away from the GBP pairs because GBP has more highs to break.

[Youcefstyles]

Trades update:

I was able to recover my previous loss with an extra 1.80 profits. I closed my USDCHF selling trades with 60$ profits.

Did anyone face the server issue today? I couldn't open any trades in the last 2 hours or even make a withdrawal. But now everything is fine. I sold the EURGBP pair again. I think the price will break the previous low one more time before start moving up.

Today's data:



The European economic data was positive according to my view. We can see that the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone countries has made a remarkable recovery this month compared to the slowdown in the services sector’s performance during February in France and Germany. The EURUSD has a good reaction to this data. The price is trading now around 1.2140 level. The PMI data in the UK was also positive. But the retail sales index fell by 8.2% in January while market expectations indicated a decrease of 3% only.

The USD index reaction:

The USD index made another low today after the EU PMI data release. The US dollar continues the downside movements to record its biggest loss in 10 days today after disappointing US weekly unemployment benefits data. The US dollar still bearish so don't trade against the major trend.


EURGBP outlook:

I will be careful with this pair this time. I don't wanna lose like the last time. The price on weak bullish movements looks like a correction. I sold it with a total of 0.50 lot size and I will wait for the market reaction. The pound still strong and I think it can drag this pair down again. I will buy the pair one more time after making a new low.

Thank you!

[Youcefstyles]

The same issue again:

I have been quiet for a long time but this time I'm faded up with these actions. Every time my post becomes one of the daily popular posts. I get a negative reputation. I have contacted the admins and mods many times but no action has been taken. Don't tell me that this won't affect our bonus amount. Because before that I get getting +100 posts but now the bonus amount has been decreased dramatically. I saw many members reporting this issue but till now no action has been taken. That loser who keeps giving us a negative reputation our posts should focus on himself only because currently I have enough trading balance and it won't matter even if I get a 1$ bonus weekly. To our administration. Do you think it's fair to make a post that takes you 1-2 hours then you receive a bad reputation from some spammer? The funny thing is that spammer will get more bonus than you.


Weekly trading history:


That is my last week's trading history. The total result is 14$. It was a good trading week for me because I was able to recover my previous loss on the EURGBP pair. Now I have 23$ withdrawable profits but I will wait for next week. I have another plan.


GBPCHF Elliot waves analysis :

I still think that the Pound is overbought for the short term. The pound Index keeps making a new high on the weekly time frame. We can see that clearly on the GBPUSD pair. The price reached 1.40 level which is the highest level for 3 years. I also think that the USD is still bearish so I decided to sell the GBPCHF pair. The price reached a strong resistance level on the weekly time frame and it has completed the III wave. The price reached the upper trendline on the bullish channel so I'm expecting a rebound this week to the first target at 1.2500 level then 1.2470 level.

[Youcefstyles]

10 more hours before the market open. It will be an interesting week due to many factors. The US dollar was negatively affected by the end of the week by the positive developments around the US stimulus package which always has a temporary negative impact on the US dollar. The approval of this package may have a temporary negative impact on the dollar. That means high inflation and low-interest rates in the United States. That supports the weakness of the US dollar in the markets.

Crude oil forecast:

Opec has announced that it is expected that the year 2021 will mark the beginning of a recovery in the levels of demand for crude oil after the levels of demand have decreased significantly due to the Corona pandemic. There is a lot of evidence that supports the expectations of a recovery in oil demand levels. But despite this, there are still some factors Causing uncertainty. As we can see on the monthly chart. The price has reached a strong trendline. There is a high possibility that the price will start moving down again to 50-40 levels. If the price broke the 34 levels then it should continue to 20 levels. According to Elliot waves: the price should break that trend line and continue moving up to 70-75 levels.


Bitcoin: what next?

Bitcoin rose by more than 80% this year and gained 300% in 2020. The rise in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies comes after the increasing institutional flow of digital currencies. Tesla and Bank of New York move into the cryptocurrency market. And Elon Musk's constant statements about digital currencies. He already said that he thinks buying bitcoin a less risky than holding cash. Especially as banks tend to lower interest rates.


USDJPY waves analysis:

There is a correlation between Crude oil and USDJPY pairs. When the Cl goes up then the USDJPY will follow it. Now I'm expecting that the USDJPY pair will continue the correction wave on the daily time frame. That correction wave should complete around 104.40-104 levels before heading up again to 107-108 levels. The crude oil will do the same probably. We may have some corrections to 55-50 levels before moving up to 65-70$ levels.


Thank you!

[Youcefstyles]

Here we go again. The market has opened and I already mentioned that it should be a very interesting trading week. The Pound continued the upside movement today and made a new daily high on most of its pairs. I have 2 sell trades on the GBPCHF and my loss has been increased from 8$ to +40$. The reason behind that is the weakness of the CHF. But it doesn't matter for now. I still believe that CHF will become stronger this week and my current losses will turn to profits again.


GBPCHF analysis update:



The price started moving quickly from 1.2540 to 1.2625 level. That what we can call an impulse wave. I think it was the final bullish wave and the price should start some correction. My current target is 1.2530 level. I may move my target level lower. Because the pair is overbought. The correction can reach the 1.2400 level easily. I may add more selling trades if the price goes higher. As long I have enough margin.

Today's data:

All we have today is medium impact data. I don't think that this data can move the market. But I still think that ECB President Lagarde Speaks today can move the Euro's pairs. NZ Retail Sales can support the bullish movements on NZD's pairs as long the major trend still bullish. Don't forget that market can be very tricky sometimes.

USDCHF pair analysis:

The CHF has been on a strong downside movement for the last 2 weeks. The price today broke the previous high at 0.9000 level and goes 0.9023 level. That move was the 2nd correction wave "C". The price failed to close above the previous resistance level of 0.9000. I believe the price will continue the downside movements to out target the 0.8755 level. You can sell it now and hold it for few weeks.

Thank you!

[Youcefstyles]

Bitcoin made an unexpected move yesterday. I think many of you saw that quick move. The price dropped +2000$ in few seconds. I think this was so scary for buyers. That's why I don't trade it. Cryptocurrencies are so risky to trade and especially on this historical high. The downside appears to be accelerating today as US Treasury Secretary "Yellen" described Bitcoin as a highly speculative and ineffective asset in transactions. Bitcoin is overbought and we should see a correction sooner or later to 35-30k$ levels.



USD forecast:

The USD index is still moving on weak downside movements. Markets are awaiting the testimony of Jerome Powell to Congress today. Investors will watch the statements carefully for any clues about when the US Federal Reserve begins to change the current monetary policy. I think he will make another dovish statement and the USD will continue the downside movements.

Trades update:



My loss has reached +100$ unfortunately. I could close it with a 7$ loss yesterday but I decided to hold it. You can see the results. Overconfidence is also an issue for the trader especially when you add more selling trades. I will wait for now. I receive a good bonus this time then I will add another selling position. Admin said that we will receive our weekly bonuses today. Let's wait and see!

GBPCHF analysis update:



I won't update my wave analysis counting because I'm still expecting the same scenario. The reason behind the upside movements today is that the final wave got extended. Market makers always do that before the reversal to kick out the sellers. The pair has reached a downside trendline on the weekly time frame and it should start the downside movements soon. If you are stuck with GBP selling trades. Just wait for it.


Thank you!

[Youcefstyles]

Hello, This trading week looks so risky as I already mentioned, we saw a spike in GBP pairs during the Asian session without any reason. I don't like this kind of movement. Mostly every year during this period, we see such a movement on the market. Even if you're using an SL level then it won't get activated. So, the solution was always trading with a small risk. I could get a margin call during that move but fortunately, I had enough margin level. But with the GBP strength, I can get a margin call in the next coming days. Now, I'm having a +260$ loss which keeps increasing day by day. No more selling trades, I'm waiting for the next trading bonus to decide if I can add more selling positions.



Fed Chair Powell Testifies:

Today, US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is due to testify about the semi-annual monetary policy report in the House Finance Committee. This gonna be the 2nd day, which is considered important for Powell's appearance before the US Congress, before the House and Senate vote to pass the stimulus package, and this seems very likely given the Democrats' control of the House of Representatives.

RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks:

The RBNZ kept the NZ Official Cash Rate at a 0.25% level. The price goes up +40 pips in few seconds. The RBNZ decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, and the committee will continue to buy assets on a large scale within the announced asset purchase program at a value exceeding $100 billion. This evening, the Governor of the New Zealand Reserve will testify before the New Zealand Parliament in Wellington. This should have a direct impact on the NZD, especially after keeping monetary policy unchanged.


NZDUSD wave analysis:


As you see, all the USD pairs have entered the final bullish wave, The NZDUSD has already reached 261 Fibonacci level which is considered a strong reversal level. But as waves analysis, the pair still have to go higher, maybe 0.75 could be the final target. I think selling this pair is a very good idea especially for those who prefer long-term trading. This trade can take serval months, but as I already said you can't sell it now. The pair is still bullish.


Thank you!