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Thread: Youcefstyles's - Trading Journal

  1. #4761 Collapse Post
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    Arrow Trades update and USDCHF waves analysis

    Hello everyone, The market has opened finally, so no more boring for me, I become addicted to trading and I believe that many members here are having the same view. Nothing gives me that rush which I get during trading. Weekends are supposed to be a short period to get some rest, but I feel so bored on Saturday and Sunday even that I have other online businesses to do. Anyway, I hope that you enjoyed the weekends, and you already have a good trading capital to start trading this week. I will call it the "reversal week" because I'm expecting a strong reversal on the US dollar and gold and many other trading instruments.

    Today's data:

    As you can see, the forex calendar is full of data and events today but most of this data has no impact on the market, that's why I marked the 3 important data and events.
    [/LIST]US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Actually, the expectations indicate that the index will grow by 58.7 points, and therefore if the index reading is better than expected, this may reflect positively on the US dollar, and vice versa. The markets always monitor this data to know the extent to which the manufacturing sector is affected by the repercussions of the new Coronavirus, which has severely affected economic activity in the United States and negatively affected economic growth rates, and given the importance of the manufacturing sector, this data will be viewed with great importance because of its impact on policy decisions. Cash by the US Federal Reserve.

    UK Final Manufacturing PMI: This won't have much effect on the Pound but, it can move it a few pips. This indicator could be a good or bad signal that presents the current economic situation but, for the short term, I think the Pound still has to go lower.

    ECB President Lagarde Speaks: ECB President Lagarde will speak after the EU closing session so it won't make so much impact on the EUR's pair, Lagarde rarely moves the market, so no need to worry about it.

    So, the only thing that can move the market is the US data, and you already saw what happened during Friday on the US pairs, the US dollar made a strong positive performance during the trading day, even though its movements were somewhat weak at the beginning of the week’s trading, but the US dollar had got strong support at the end of the week’s trading. This support came mainly from the high yields of US Treasury bonds and the relief package which was approved by the US house.

    Trades update:

    You know that I already have buy trade on the EURUSD pair, I have added another position today with a 0.1 lot size. So, the total lot size, for now, is 0.4 lot size. I have a 14$ floating loss which can increase soon if the price goes lower. Everything is possible now for this pair but I will hold it as long I'm using an SL level. The USDX seems so strong today and it already made a new high. fundamentally, passing the stimulus package means more weakness for the US dollar. So, I still think that the USD index will go down soon to the 89.19 level again and that means a new high for the EURUSD probably. I'm planning to close those trades at the 1.2220 level which can give me some profits of around 40$.

    EURUSD scenarios:

    Unfortunately, this time I have 3 different scenarios on the EURUSD. Let's see them:

    1st scenario:

    I'm expecting this scenario right now, the pair could be moving inside an ABCDE triangle pattern which we can find most of the time on the 4th wave. This triangle pattern is good for scalping and short-term traders. After completing wave E then we the price should be heading up to the 1.24 level again.

    2nd scenario:

    If the price will be moving according to this scenario then, we can have a strong upside movement this week to 1.22-1.23 level which should be the 3rd wave. According to this scenario, the current wave is the C wave from the 2nd correction wave. It should end soon. Let's see!

    3rd scenario:


    As I already said, everything is possible but I'm not expecting this scenario right now. According to this scenario, the price is moving on the C wave which can reach 1.18-1.17 levels easily before moving up again. As a waves trader, I should expect anything and that's why I'm trading with a small lot size right now, the price can continue the bearish wave to 1.17 and this will cause too much if I'm trading with high risk. Risk management is more important than analysis.

    USDCHF waves analysis:

    The higher this pair goes, the more EURUSD will fall. USDCHF is trading on the highest level for the last 2 months but I think it's overbought right now and the price has to go down soon. The price has already reached a strong supply zone on the daily time frame and at the same time, the price is approaching the upper line for the bullish channel on the H4 time frame. When it comes to waves counting, the price is moving on the final wave. I think selling right now is a very good idea. The price can start moving down during the US session. The CHF index is expected to move up soon while the USD index should go down. But we should note that the price has broken the bearish trend line on the weekly time frame. So, selling this pair for the long term is kinda risky. You can sell it today and hold it until the next Friday because this week is full of US economic data which should move the market and of course the USDCHF. I will try to wait for now and follow the EURUSD moves, then I will decide when I will be selling the USDCHF pair.

    Have a good day and thank you for visiting my trading journal!




    We have two lives, and the second begins when we realize we only have one


    My trading Journal


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    Arrow Trades update, USDX, EURUSD, GOLD and USDCAD analysis

    Hello again,

    The USD index outlook:

    The market movements look promising this week, the USD made a strong upside movement yesterday and today the Index is trading around 91.10-91 level. The strong support that the US dollar derives from US bond yields continues this week. Despite the decline in yields compared to the levels of the past three days, but the bond yields are still at strong levels relative to bank interest levels where the returns are stable. Bonds are currently at 1.40-1.30% levels and thus US bonds continue to provide support for the US dollar until real yields are close to zero levels, but I think this support will stop soon and markets will start selling the USD again. We shouldn't forget about the US stimulus package approval, as the US House of Representatives approved the stimulus package proposal and the $ 1.9 trillion relief project. The stimulus package is the first legislative initiative of US President Joe Biden. The House of Representatives approved it in a vote of 219-212, most of them Democrats only, while two Democrats joined all Republicans in its opposition.

    Gold outlook:

    Due to USD strength, the gold continues the bearish movements, despite gold's attempt to recover at the beginning of the week, after the US House of Representatives approved the stimulus package proposal and the $ 1.9 trillion relief project. But it was not able to continue and usually fall again with the improvement in the performance of the US dollar but as you can see in the chart, the price has finally reached the lower trend line of the bearish trading channel, so we can see a reversal soon to 1900 level again for the short term, but for the long term, it seems that the downside of gold will continue, the faster the pace of Coronavirus vaccinations, coinciding with the improvement of future visions regarding the prospects for economic growth, the more this increases risk sentiment and opens investors ’appetite for injecting more liquidity into high risk, high-yielding investments and this means more downside for the gold and probably a new lows.

    EU economic situation:

    We had some European low impact economics data today. The Euro still strong against the USD but, the EU economy is also suffering from the coronavirus and Brexit. Reports indicate that the decline in export volumes is due to Britain's exit from the European Union. This follows a 15.5% drop in total exports for the full year of 2020 compared to 2019 - the largest annual decline in exports since the global financial crisis. On the other hand, The German authorities decided to extend the closure restrictions inside the country until the end of next March to contribute to containing the outbreak of the dangerous coronavirus, adding that the German authorities are considering easing the most stringent closure restrictions, but the application of general restrictions will remain until the end of this month.
    This data and news is considered negative and may harm the movement of the euro and the pound sterling due to the beginning of the emergence of the negative impact of Brexit on trade relations between Germany and Britain.

    European stocks are under bearish pressure with news of a delay in the Corona vaccine and its distribution within the European Union. In addition to the negative reports that included the possibility of extending the closure restrictions in Germany for a new period with the spread of the Coronavirus. So, buying the EU stock is kinda risky right now, a medium-term correction can start soon, Dax, FTSE 100, and Eurostoxx already started moving down.

    RBA Rate Statement:

    The RBA cash rate is still adjusted at a 0.10% level. The RBA is optimized about the Australian economy, Global trade has rebounded and commodity prices have increased in recent months. The economic recovery was better than expected at the start of the crisis and for the labor market, there was strong job growth and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6% which is a good indicator for the economy. I think this statement was very positive for the AUD but the price didn't react immediately. Now, we can see some upward movements on the AUDUSD and I think it will continue moving up to 0.7850-0.7900 levels.

    Trades update:

    The EURUSD moved lower today and my floating loss exceeded 35$, but this is normal because I was expecting that anyway and I'm still trading with a small lot size. I'm planning to add another buy trade around 1.2010-1.2000 level because the price looks reversing right now, so it could be the bottom for today at the 1.1990 level. I changed my take profits level from 1.2250 to 1.2200 level and my stop loss level still at 1.1950 level, which can be changed too if I need to. I'm expecting a reversal on the USD soon during the US session, so let's wait and see!

    USDCAD analysis and the Canadian GDP data:

    Unforentealy, I was wrong about my previous analysis on the USDCAD pair. I closed my sell trades with 4$ profits but the pair didn't move according to my scenario. Today we have CA GDP data, this data can give acceleration the price. It seems that the CAD is so weak right now and according to my view, the USDCAD pair will go higher today to 1.28 level, but at the same time, I don't suggest buying it because the pair movements look complicated today. It should be noted that the USDCAD is oversold on the bigger time frame as the weekly and the monthly time frames. So, buying is the best choice for the medium and long term even with the current USD weakness. Personally, I like this pair but I will avoid trading it now until having a clear view.


    Tomorrow we have the Australian GDP data too, so probably we may have the same price reaction. If the USDCAD pair moved up today as expected, then the AUDUSD will drop tomorrow, because most of the time, both the AUD and CAD have the same movements.


    Have a profitable day! Thank you for visiting my trading journal!
    We have two lives, and the second begins when we realize we only have one


    My trading Journal


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