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    Thread: EUR/USD (part 80)

    1. #1131
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      Hi all traders if we talk about the today chart of eurusd in h4 timeframe we see that eurusd touch the support on 1.1192 and now moving towards the key resistance that is spotted on 1.1346 now we have to see that rather it break the support neckline and move towards selling conditions all that things given in the chart below thanks.
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    3. #1132
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      Welcome to the forum each one of you~

      According to the four-hour chart, the currency pair euro/dollar moved to the lower boundary of the trading channel in the range of 1.1218 - 1.1193 yesterday. At present, the pair can be seen between the levels of resistance - 1.1218 and 1.1230 and levels of support - 1.1193 and 1.1181. On the other hand, the indicators signals the likelihood of purchasing the pair this day. Although, selling a pair should also be considered under the channel.


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    5. #1133
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      Hello, dear traders.
      The euro-dollar pair continues to move in the downward direction and works in the bears' favor.
      Yesterday, there was no activity, although I was waiting for a more fruitful day.
      Apparently, everything was left for today. Since the FOMC protocols are going to be published today.
      How have things changed?
      No major progress. Yesterday, we broke the support at 1.1206, but failed to go far.
      Since we are in the area of the strong buyer, it can be difficult to pass it and we will hardly break through it on the first try.

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      However, I am not sure that the pair will be seeking down further.
      Now there is a debt at the level of 1.1270. I expect a movement in this direction, then sales again.
      But opening buy deals is dangerous, as traders may continue to hit new lows.
      I admit an option with a breakout of 1.1180, but this breakout may be speculative Ė just for removing some players by stop orders.
      Then we need to go up.
      I consider intraday sales from 1.1220-1.1232.
      In this area, it will be comfortable to sell with a short target of 30-40 points.
      But again, I would still wait for reaching the level of about 1.1270 and sell it there.
      I do not consider short deals below this level.

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      In general, the turnover is weak. The CME data shows a little higher than 100 thousand.
      Nevertheless, it can be noticed that while attempting to grow, volume is being added.
      Moreover, it is mostly done in the buy delta.
      If there was a buyer, there would be a further upward momentum.
      There is an assumption about the limit seller who accepts all market purchases.
      But while the whole song is about nothing, until then the pack will not give 25-30 thousand per hour.
      It seems that the buyer is weak, but it is also impossible to push the price below.
      Traders pass 10-20 points and then come back.
      In general, we should adapt to the situation.

      Open interest has grown by almost 1.5 thousand.
      I will not take into account such data, so these turnovers could be gained by small speculators who took advantage of the absence of major players.

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      As for the traders' positions, it can be observed that 86% of them are buyers.
      This is still not enough for the climax and the pair's movement towards the upside.
      This means that the probability of hitting a new low is very high. And, most likely, we will see it today.

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      That's all, I wish you all profitable trading.


    6. #1134
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      Technical overview on EUR/USD. According to the technical analysis, I have an upward trend with the targets of 1.1650, 1.1750, and 1.25.
      At the moment, there is a correction before an upward reversal on the daily chart.
      The correction levels were 1.1230, 1.1210, and 1.1190. From a technical point of view, everything was done as it should be. Now, according to my calculations, the uptrend should continue, but in order to understand when it starts and when to enter the market, look at the H1 and H4 time frames.
      Technical overview according to H1 and H4.
      On H4, there is still a downward trend. On H1, we also have the downtrend.
      In order to turn H1 around, we need to break through the level of 1.1230, make a pullback down and go to 1.1290. At the level of 1.1290, H4 will join the case. On H4, a downward pullback to 1.1230 is required. Then H4 should test 1.1210 again and go up for a reversal. In this situation, H1 and H4 will turn towards the upside. This will give us a new upward momentum up to the level of 1.1520. I will observe this process and let you know about the situation.

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      As for the intraday levels for today, the upper level is 1.1213, while the lower level is 1.1193.
      Today, the situation is quite clear. The breakout of 1.1193 will push the price to 1.1170.
      The breakout of 1.1213 will push the price to 1.1230 and above. However, my plans remain the same - to wait for the pressure on the upside.

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      Intraday trading. As yesterday, I am waiting for an upward signal. The downtrend is over for me. We can update 1.1190, but it does not make a thing. I expect an upward pullback. Then I will need a new plan.

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    7. #1135
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      According to the COT reports analysis, I see no changes in the currency movements since yesterday. The only currency that showed some changes was the British pound that reached the levels where hedgers opened buy deals while speculators placed sell deals previously.

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      Thereafter, the pound sterling rose above 1.33. For now, the currency futures have shown no other changes. At the same time, the situation with the commodities is more interesting. Hedgers have increased sell volumes on corn futures, but the key levels are difficult to be defined yet.

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      The same is applied to the wheat futures.

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      Ideally, I need a chart based on the 3-year price history, as itís hard to see the key levels with the current figures. Iíve already missed an opportunity to buy beef futures at $132. But I hope I will get more opportunities in the future as the market wonít cease to exist. Itís better to think twice and make balanced decisions rather than rush into opening a trade and regret doing it afterwards. So, donít be lazy and plot charts based on 2-3 years history.
      Speaking about futures contracts on currencies, I should say that they may provide false signals sometimes. The levels defined with the help of such contracts serve as guide marks but not targets. As for the euro, I think that the downward scenario will become invalid soon, as we have witnessed a protracted fall. Though it is only the first week of August's option contract, it not really long.

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      I expect the euro to reverse to the upper levels of the current contract. The time is passing by.


    8. #1136
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      As for the euro, yesterday, I hoped for a decline, but the day ended with a decrease of only about 10 points.
      In short, the second day we have a flat, and this is a signal that we can prepare for a momentum.
      Today, by the way, there is great potential for it.
      First of all, the news background gives the pair an opportunity to move.

      Secondly, we have several technical levels such as 1.1180 and 1.1111.
      If they are broken through today, this can be considered as the climax of sales.

      For more than a week, the euro has continued its steady decline and there are no strong signals for a reversal.
      The first barrier to decline is yesterday's low of 1.1193.
      If it is broken, the euro will decline further.

      As for options, a movement to the level of 1.1190 is possible today.
      This is the first important level. If it is broken, the next important put range will be at 1.1090.
      If this range is reached today, it will be a very good opportunity to open buy deals at competitive prices.
      This can be done just during the American session, while the Europeans can make a small upward correction.
      Moreover, Powell will give a speech today, so new lows can be hit amid such news.
      Of course, I donít rule out an upward movement as a correctional wave, but ideally, itís better to break through the bottom and only then go up.
      The resistance in the form of a call range is at 1.1240 today, so this will be the main level from which sales are possible.
      Taking into account the risk premium at this strike, the margin for growth is allowed even to 1.1291, although such a growth is unlikely.

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      Today, the optimal option range is 150 points.
      At the 12th strike, we have the optimal level of support;
      At 1.1350 at futures prices, we have the optimal level of resistance.
      At the moment, the price is trading exactly between the levels. Considering them as a reference point for entering, itís better now to be out of the market and start working after the price growth or decline by 80 points.

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      From a technical point of view, I have a downward trend today.
      There are no strong signals of a reversal. If they are absent, it is better to work in the direction of the trend and not try to hit another low, hoping that it will be the last one.
      After the climax, it is possible to enter the market and make a sure step towards growth.
      Now, the main task is not to suffer from an even greater loss from purchases, rather than look for another low for a buy deal.
      So, if you really want to buy, use a short stop order.

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    9. #1137
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      Good day to all of you!

      Yesterday, the currency pair euro/dollar recovered its strength to increase and is now making a movement towards the correctional level of 1.1291. From this level, we will observe another connection in the decline. Although the trend going downwards has yet to be cancelled, gaining a foothold over the level of 1.1230 suggests an upward correction. Thus, few experts in trading are starting to increase their purchase and hoping for positive changes in the economy of the European Union.

      Meanwhile, based on the chart, the Moving Average determined the development of the pair towards the correctional Fibonacci level of 50%. As observed, the pair EUR/USD has been spending its time at these levels for a whole year already. The range of 1000 points is insignificant, and thatís a fact. It is possible to reach the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. The target stays important t until the end of the week.

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    10. #1138
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      Hello, dear traders.
      In short, let's recall my expectations of a downward movement. The downward targets were 1.1230, 1.1210, and 1.1190, where I waited for a rebound and a return to the upside. Everything was the way it's supposed to. There was a rebound from the level of 1.1190.
      Technical overview on EUR/USD.
      Now the plans are upward. However, the first thing I am waiting for is a downward pullback which will probably be accompanied by hitting a new low, that is, a return to 1.1190. We will have to watch intraday levels where the downward trend will end below. And after the downward pullback, I expect the resumption of the upward trend with the targets of 1.1410, 1.1470, and 1.1520.
      These are the resistance levels on the upside, while the support levels are below, 1.1150, 1.1120, and 1.1090.
      But Iím not interested in support yet, as my plans are upward. If Iím not mistaken, after all the zigzags that I have described, the uptrend will start. Once H4 turns around, there will be no obstacle on the way to the upside, except for resistance at 1.1410, 1.1470, and 1.1520. At these levels, we will stop for a break. Then we will go further to 1.1650. That's what I expect from the EUR/USD pair from a technical point of view.

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      Intraday levels for today.
      The upper level is 1.1256.
      The lower level is 1.1208.
      Yesterday, the level confirming the uptrend was 1.1213. After the breakout, the pullback was confirmed. The level of 1.1213 worked out very well. Today, some narrowings will probably be created. This means that we will not break through the intraday levels. Narrowings and extensions are often formed before a reversal.

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      Intraday trading.
      The uptrend is still in force within the day. At the level of 1.1260, M15 will show us a pullback. While we are above 1.1260, we have the upward trend. So, I am planning to wait for a pullback to open buy deals.

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    11. #1139
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      Quote Originally Posted by TraderGeorge     
      Today's intraday trading does not differ from yesterday's one, as today, I expect almost the same movement as yesterday.
      Also, I expect a downward movement during the Asian session, so I will make a purchase from the bottom to the top.
      As for the details of the movement, the southern scenario is still relevant. Within the day, the cancellation of the south is a breakout of 1.1480, the targets are below - 1.1430 and 1.1390. At the moment, the price is developing which indicates a southern impulse. Therefore, during the Asian session, I expect a downward movement, the price will be driven back. Later, we will see where it is pulled back and stopped, and then weíll make decisions for adding sales. The rebounding levels are 1.1480 and 1.1510. Well, a breakout will speed up the pullback, but do not forget that after the pullback, it is still expected to go down, so while we should not wait for the strong north.

      Attachment 88464

      As for the trading range for today, the top is 1.1610, the bottom is 1.1345.
      As for the levels confirming the directions, the top is 1.1527, the bottom is 1.1479. At the moment, just like yesterday, we are starting the day with the southern confirmation, and are already below the level.

      Attachment 88465
      Thanks for sharing your trading knowledge with us.it will be a great opportunity for us to learn all basics.


    12. #1140
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      Hi, everyone!
      So, I think itís the end of the downward trend on the euro. But it does not mean that we should forget about selling.
      Yesterday the euro managed to break above 1.1232, tested this zone successfully and advanced higher.
      Unfortunately, I missed this opportunity and did not buy. At least, I managed to close sell deals.
      Bulls demonstrated their strength and determination to push the price higher. A strong upward momentum was seen. Before that, it seemed that the price would never be able to rise, but it turned out to be quite the contrary.


      Yesterday I expected the price to retest the downside, but it did not happen. The plan A unfolded after the price reached the level of 1.1206.
      I did not open buy deals as I was not able to monitor the situation the whole day. Frankly speaking, I did not intend to buy at all.
      By the way, the momentum is rather strong. Now I doubt whether I can sell against such strong a movement.
      So far, I have not risked doing it though I wanted to sell near 1.1270. But itís risky now. Iíd rather wait for the wave to complete and then maybe Iíll sell.
      Yesterday, at 1.1235-1.1255 levels buy volumes increased sharply, so I donít think that the price will fall below this level.
      Further on, the strong support is found at 1.1250, and the price has already added 30 pips in the Asian session.
      A deep fall is very unlikely at the moment.
      On the upside, the level of 1.1350 serves as the next resistance that can be reached easily.
      It would be reasonable to buy at 1.1235-1.1250.

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      The volume indicator shows a relatively clear picture.
      Buyers continue pushing the price higher while big sellers are seen at 1.1350-1.1400.
      So, unless the price breaks above these levels, it will be risky to buy.
      However, the situation may change drastically. Big buyers may enter the market and reversed the trend sooner than expected.

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      According to the CME chart, yesterday the buy volumes increased notably. The Open Interest advanced by 4.6K. The turnover also increased. This is a clear sign of the upcoming strong movement. The question is, in what direction will the price go. I predict that the upward trend will be formed, as it remains intact on the daily chart.

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      So, this is the current state of things.


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