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    Page 66 of 94 ... 61 64 65 66 67 68 71 ...
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    Thread: EUR/USD (part 80)

    1. #651
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      As for the EUR/USD pair, I have been telling you about the uptrend for three weeks. So, dear traders, the moment has come and the uptrend has arrived. However, it has been too short-lived.
      In fact, H1 made a reversal signal to the upside, but then the price went away without fulfilling the conditions for an entry. Well, it happens, especially when the market is waiting for something. In our case, it is the vote on Brexit.
      On H4, the debt was left at 1.1200. On M15, the debt was left at 1.1220. And on H1, the debt was left at 1.1210.
      I do not lose hope, I’m still waiting for a downward movement tomorrow. Even if we go to 1.1350, I will be waiting for a downward movement. The higher we go up, the more debt we leave. And the faster we go down, the faster we end up with the debt.
      So far, of course, we are looking downwards within the day. I hope that today, we will finally break through the intraday level of 1.1249. Then it will be possible to go to 1.1210, and then to 1.1210. If everything is correct, we will be able to prepare for an upward movement.

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      Intraday levels.
      Intraday levels show us the way. For example, let's take 1.1257, I serves as a guide. Well, after the breakout, we saw that the direction was upward.
      And now let's see what we have for today in terms of the levels.
      The top is 1.1293.
      The bottom is 1.1249.
      Today, they will show us what to do, but considering how we ended the day yesterday, I do not rule out that we will start the day with the uptrend.

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      As for the intraday trading, we are keeping the upward trend, the level of 1.1293 with the target of 1.1320 will confirm the uptrend. Cancellation of the uptrend is a breakout of 1.1249. I am going to wait for a pullback which will show its northern trend. So far, I am not going down without a zigzag. The uptrend has finally came, but there are no conditions for entering.

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      M15 went to the “sell” zone, but we are spinning at the upward level. To be honest, I do not understand where the trend is. There was a downward movement amid the news and then a return back up. This has been going on for three months. All hope is now for Friday, if there is no downward zigzag, the way out to the upside will be false. In addition, I want to add that we need to go to yesterday's high. Here, on the chart, there are places highlighted in blue which indicate that we should not go further.

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    2. #652
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      Yesterday, we reached the target within the 13th figure with great difficulty. Initially, I placed take profit orders at a price of 1.1304, but then decided to close everything manually in order to avoid a sharp pullback.
      Then the price would reach the take order exactly point to point and start pulling back. But that's okay, the loss received earlier was almost offset, and taking into account trading with the help of other instruments for the last trading days, there is some profit. In particular, we managed to catch yesterday's drop in the pound. I planned that there would be something similar with the euro, but the news on the vote worked in advance.
      Then almost nothing has changed, the pair is stuck in a narrow flat. The ground for a breakout of 1.1325 is probably being prepared.

      Today, the call level is at 1.1310, but the risk premium is large, 60 points. Taking into account this premium and forward point, we get the upper border of 1.1310-1.3370.
      The lower border is at the level of 1.1160 - 1.1139.
      The range between the levels is 150 points. Taking into account the premiums, it increases by 80 points.
      This range is quite enough to make good money amid the price reduction.

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      Today, sales are more attractive than purchases. More recently, I was a supporter of the euro growth and I was careful with sales, but now, the situation has changed. Now I’m waiting for another upward movement of the euro and then a decline. The higher the euro goes up, the lower it will have to fall further.
      The level of 1.1160 is chosen correctly, but taking into account the risk premium, it expands to 1.1139.
      Yesterday, changes in OI were in favor of the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1250 at futures prices.
      For example, 594 new call contracts were added at 1.1500. As a result, at this level, now we have the maximum interest of call options for the monthly contract.
      This range will clearly act as the resistance level from which it will be possible to open sell deals.
      The level of 1.1250 was also strengthened by new put options, but the maximum OI of put options is at 1.1350.
      Let's see how the price will react to 1.1350at futures price /1.1260 at forex price. If it meets support, sales will no longer be relevant.

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      Trading actions:
      Firstly, yesterday, I fixed all my purchases at the level of 1.1297, which brought almost 6% of the deposit.
      Secondly, I opened a new sale from 1.1283 with the targets of 100 points.
      Thirdly, there is another limit sale at a price of 1.1362 with the targets of the same 100 points and the risk of 3% of the deposit.

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    3. #653
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      Currently, I see the picture of flat on the chart. H4 is headed downwards after it completed all the required moves: it broke though 1.1250 confirming the bearish trend, then rebounded and hit 1.1280. That was yesterday. Now, it needs to renew the low. The fact that the trend line upgraded its high doesn’t cancel the downward movement. The downtrend will be broken only if the price reaches 1.1370. In that case, it will retreat to 1.1200 afterwards. I drew it on the print screen.

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      Here we go, my favorite H1. As you can see, it went to the upside without completing a zigzag. So, now H4 is headed down, while H1 is headed up. It means, they will be pulling it to both sides. Obviously, we will return to the downside, once the Brexit rush is over.

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    4. #654
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      Welcome to the forum everybody!

      The Euro-dollar currency pair unfortunately did not decline, as it was imagined. Nonetheless, it moved higher on the “Wolfe” target and was able to broke through the critical level. Therefore, the upward movement of the pair is currently being looked for. For the time being, a decline to the level of 1.1274 is anticipated. From there, we can expect an increase to the level of 1.1350 once again. Such goal to move the prices is quite expected this day or to the following day. Meanwhile, the indicators on the daily chart supports the upward movement of the pair. The stochastic indicator, on the other hand, turns around to make a movement downwards. In this case, it is expected to have a small correctional movement below, after which, the pair can increase again.


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    6. #655
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      The review of EUR/USD.
      Let's consider yesterday's situation regarding the EUR/USD pair. Within the day, there was a breakout of the 1.1293 level. And this means that there is confirmation of the uptrend and there is a chance to reach the target of 1.1320. The intraday forecast was confirmed, but it is not enough for me, since I was waiting for another downward movement, but it was being delayed. The problem of a zigzag delay is that the upward reversal is broken. And the higher we go, the more we break the uptrend. And we break the uptrend, because we return back to the original point from where the upward movement began.

      As a result, we can say that the uptrend which I am waiting for can be at risk. Everything depends on how far we go up.
      Each time we move to the upside, we create a boomerang formation. We already have it on M15, but we do not take it into account, it is a short period of time. The same boomerang was drawn on H1, and H4 can give the same formation as well. And in order to ensure it will not happen, we should not reach the level of 1.1370, otherwise our upward movement will be over. Given that everything points to the upside, the EUR/USD pair is gradually becoming inappropriate for the medium-term trading. All that is left to do is to conduct intraday trading.

      Intraday levels.
      Intraday levels indicate the way to profit.
      The top is 1.1315.
      The bottom is 1.1277.
      Yesterday's level of 1.1293 was achieved. After the breakout, we successfully reached the target of 1.1320, and well, the vote on the Brexit deal finished off what's left of the target. So let's see what Friday will show us. We are aware of the levels, it remains to determine the targets. The upward target is 1.1370, while the downward one is 1.1250. Well, then intraday levels will show us the direction.

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      Intraday trading.
      Within the day, everything is the same. The target is 1.1350. The breakout of 1.1315 will confirm the uptrend. But in fact, we have already broken through it. We can only wait for the European session. The cancellation of the uptrend is the breakout of 1.1277. That's what I think of the intraday trading.


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      It can be seen that speculators perceive Brexit as the upward trend. The most interesting is that today is the last day of the vote, and we have the last levels of 1.1350 and 1.1370, the breakout of 1.1370, that's all. We can say that H4 is being broken, from the upside, but with a return to the upside. And then there will probably be a flat which will begin on H4. Well, that's not bad, I'm pretty much okay with a flat on H4, it will be possible to work there within the day. So let's see how this plays out. Everything depends on what the US will show us. Yesterday, they showed us an upward trend.


    7. #656
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      Good Afternoon friends.

      Yesterday I open short trades where price move against my position and Im facing a floating loss. I still believe that price will fall today or on Friday as its last trading day for the week.

      Because of the big move I make n other sell order just to cover as much loss as I can.. I will let my position open until new updates on EURUSD is on. It seems that traders still holding their sell order and price may fall if trend line that is acting as support broken. The price bounce more then 3 times and again its near support it might be broken soon.

      Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving.


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    9. #657
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      Unfortunately, my expectations didn’t get confirmed. I’ve been talking about waiting for arbitrage situation on futures market. To recall, the quarterly futures contracts change in Chicago on March 15, June 15, September 15, and December 15. Last year, trading new futures started already on the 14th. However, today it is March 14, but we are still trading March futures. That’s sad! Check on the print screen, what I mean. Anyways, futures will change tomorrow or on Monday. Deposits are ready, we just need a green light. I was about to enter the market yesterday, but decided to hold on. As I see today, I was right.

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      Let’s go through yesterday’s events. I’m looking at the new futures contract, so don’t be surprised about the numbers and levels. On the one hand, the price overcame 1405 (1315 on Forex). However, we can see active selling at 1400 (1310 on Forex) – look at the first picture. Notably, there are same ask readings around 1385-1390 (1295-1200 on Forex) on the downside, while short positions prevail higher, at 1405 (1315 on Forex). Although, they are not that significant. So, where else can the price go? Maybe, it will increase to the key level of 1460-1480 (1370-1390 on Forex today) of the previous contract (picture 2). Besides, there are two resistance levels left from the previous contract: 1510-1535 (1420-1445 on Forex today) and 1580-1600 (1490-1510 on Forex today). The outermost support is at 1235-1250 (1145-1160 on Forex today).

      Picture 1. Beginning of June contract

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      Picture 2. Whole Match contract

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      Therefore, I expect to see 1460-1480 (1370-1390 on Forex today) already today or tomorrow. After that, I anticipate an arbitrage by 70-80 pips. The intraweek situation seems to be bullish. Yet, it is better to buy from 1305, yesterday’s average volume price.

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    10. #658
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      Yesterday, there was a buy signal. The price pushed off from the lower border of the channel at the 1.1280 level, after which the growth began. Strengthening of the rate stopped just at the upper border of the rising channel in the range of 1.1335.
      While the euro continues to trade within the rising channel, I opened the sale. The nearest target for this sale is on the opposite side of the channel.

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      Today, there may be a breakout of the channel. The minimum number of points which the price can pass after the breakout will be the channel width.
      At the moment, the channel is approximately 50 points.
      A breakout in the direction of a decline will enable the rate to fall to the level of 1.1250.
      If there is a breakout of the upper border of the channel, this will be just enough for the price to be able to reach 1.1380.

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      As for the horizontal levels, the breakout of 1.1325 now seems like a false breakout.
      After a weak attempt to consolidate above, the rate managed to drop below 1.1325. The decline served as a signal to open a sale.
      The nearest support level is in the range of 1.1300. This will act as the level for placing a take profit order.
      A breakout and price consolidation below 1.1300 will be a signal for opening an additional sale.
      The target for this sale can be set in the range of 1.1250.

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      Amid yesterday's price increase, a large point volume was added. The delta was negative.
      The last upward momentum, which occurred at the end of the trading day, was in the positive delta, but these purchases have not been confirmed yet and the price continues to decline.
      Price reduction below the high volume level will be a signal for a sell deal. The main condition for a good deal is a successful test of these volumes from the other side.
      For now, the price is still slightly above this volume.

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      On the H4 chart, the rate continues to be traded within the descending channel. There are about 50 points of growth left to reach the upper border.
      If the price manages to form a similar graphical model in the upper range, as before, this will be a signal to continue the decline.

      Breakout and consolidation above the upper border will be a signal to turn to the upside.

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    11. #659
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      Greetings everyone!

      The voting on regards with the extension of the 50th article will be held today. This starts a new chapter in the long running issue about the exit of United Kingdom to the European Union. Other than that, we will have another election in the UK, wherein Theresa May will present her own edition of the agreement. This election must be held be on or before the 20th of March, and thus, it will be important to make a petition for a renewal to the EU. More so, these notable Europeans will gather by March 20 - 21 so that they can take a decision whether to prolong the agreement by June 30 or not, in which it is perceived that they’ll come to a unanimous decision. By then, United Kingdom will be able to withdraw from the European Union earlier than June 30. Nevertheless, there are still other things to consider: Theresa May’s deal may be rejected for the second time by the House of Commons and the Europeans might not want to extend the 50th article. If that happens, everything will change and will begin in another direction, to the point which the British will be involved in voting to the European Parliament.

      Technical Analysis:

      Looking at the hourly chart of the EUR/USD currency pair, we are still waiting for the pennant pattern to move and decline to the level of 1.1280. However, there are instances that the exit from the pennant pattern might be located at the opposite direction from the trend. This will occur when the price will be fixed above the level of 1.1310. Generally, it is recommended to wait for the level of 1.13 or 1.1310 to breakdown.

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    12. #660
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      Today, the euro-dollar currency pair continues to strengthen its position as it reaches the resistance level of 1.1350 on the daily chart. From this level, new trade forecasts are deemed necessary. Therefore, in case of a pair completion in today’s trading under this level, the downward movement will still persist, allowing the fall of the pair to the support level at 1.1260. If above level 1.1350, the prices close, then chances are focused on the rising of the pair to the resistance level at 1.1440.


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