Indeed, bulls got what they wanted as the price reached 1.1370 without any issues.
Meanwhile, yesterday’s news from the FOMC meeting did not change much. Well, I expected that.
Now, here are my thoughts about today’s movement of the EUR/USD pair.
I believe the price will retreat to 1.1324 and then rebound to 1.1350. After that, it will retreat again to 1.1300 and face a resistance zone there.
I think a notable movement will take place only on Friday, today the pair is likely to trade flat.
Currently, H1 is headed upwards. Yet, I have a signal of downward direction on M15, we have to consider this fact. Although, the breakout of 1.1362 will cancel the downward movement.
What is required to get a bearish trend
In order for trend to become bearish, there should be a zig-zag movement on H1. When the white line on H1 will be headed down, it will mean bears are winning. When it is in horizontal position – chances are 50/50. For now, the white line is headed upwards, so the trend may remain bullish. Nevertheless, I hope for it to become bearish.
I have noticed that the news background heeds the technical analysis, so that some news is ignored in the market (worked out in advance). The situation in the market is currently very depressing, perhaps due to the US-China trade negotiations. Large investors are waiting and do not open positions. Due to the uncertainty about a successful outcome of the negotiations, the whole market is standing in the same place. But for us, small speculators, unlike large investors, the movement of 50 points is also a profit.
I personally do not notice a huge amount. As you can see from the volume profile, the whole volume is spread out and it’s not possible to determine the exact price where exactly they buy and sell. I dare to conclude that the entire volume includes buy and sell orders. Now everyone has their own truth, someone is waiting for the price at 1.14, while someone - at 1.12.
Based on even the open positions graph, it can be argued that almost equal shares of orders are open on both sides. In this case, it remains to wait until the strongest win and jump with him in one train.
On the hourly chart, we can see the upward channel. According to it, the level of support for the channel is expected at 1.1320. What concerns me is that the whole market sees this channel. When many know what is located on the chart (figure, candle, important resistance), the price goes in the opposite direction.
The daily chart is shocking us more and more. Yesterday, a Doji reversal pattern was formed again. But given the fact that we have rebounded from the lows of the daily chart of 1.1240, we should expect a further movement to the upside, but I am not sure.
Conclusion: I am looking at the chart and do not understand what is happening, it is not even possible to predict where we will go. I think that the reason is the situation between the US and China, their trade agreement. When there is accurate data, it will be clear which way the trend is expected to go in the medium term.
