Hello And great to see you all guys i am new here and i wanna share my personal analysis and thoughts and opinions etc with all of you
and i also need some correction and making sure that i need to learn here in the community as well.
Now wanna give my analysis for the EURUSD that euro is trading not in a good position but you can Buy it with proper money management
on the dips that would be great to buy it now.
Today, many traders expect a decline in the euro, with hitting a new low.
So do I.
For four days in a row, the euro has been showing that it is not going to go up.
All the attempts to grow were stopped and the growth ended with a false breakout for collecting stop loss orders.
As for the options, today, I have the optimal level of support at the strike of 1.1175.
The level of resistance in the form of call options is in the range of 1.1220.
The price is now striving for the upper level, from which we should consider selling the euro.
The expected range for today is small and consists of only 50 points, but if the euro manages to make such a fall today, it will be good.
If the price is really able to make an increase to 1.1220, we should not miss a chance to sell.
Today, I expect the maximum possible growth in options to the mark of 1.1237 where I have placed an additional pending sell order.
Option open interest.
According to the latest changes in open interest, the activity was quite high.
If we take into account the nearest important call level, it is at the strike of 1.1250.
Today, this will clearly be the ceiling for growth.
Yesterday's maximum activity was accumulated at this level, since the addition amounted to 993 contracts.
We should sell from this level, since it will not be easy to break through this level on the first try.
This behavior indicates that there are concerns about high volatility, and the sellers' stop orders are expected to be removed.
The significant additions of call contracts indicate that there are concerns about growth.
As for put options, the addition was much more modest.
The overall activity was rather weak.
The main support at the strike of 1.1175 was strengthened.
Trading plan for today:
Today, I expect further attempts to remove unnecessary sell beginners, but then the price reduction will resume.
The first sell deal was set in the range of 1.1216.
Take profit and stop loss orders are 100 points.
The second additional sale will be at 1.1235.
Stop loss and take profit orders are also 100 points.
The risk in the transaction will be 3% of the deposit.
I consider buy deals only from 1.1170 with the targets of 100 points.
EURUSD outlooks is in pressure of huge fall but that's a trick belongs to market marking be here my dear and you will soon see a perfect rate Spike in the EURO investors need to be careful because euro is preparing themselves for the raly upto 1.1400 level.
Hereís the forecast for the EUR/USD currency pair:
For the currency pair euro/dollar, the pair is currently bargaining between the levels of 1.1230 and 1.1169. Trading will not be considered until the price exits from this range. Moreover, purchases with the target level of 1.1292 will be considered only, provided that the level of 1.1230 will break down from the bottom going upwards. On the other hand, sales will be considered with the target level of 1.1108 in the event that the level of 1.1169 will breakdown.
The downward trend is still in force; and we are not afraid of any momentums. According to the technical analysis, H1 is directed down. We have a debt at 1.1170 which must be taken. So we should follow this level. Once M15 finishes its upward signal and turns to the downside, I expect we will reach the level of 1.1160. According to my calculations, M15 may rise to 1.1230. Then I think we will turn down when the American session starts. So, be ready to get profit when there is a signal.
Now let's consider the levels for today. They will show us the way to profit. Today, the top is 1.1224, while the bottom is 1.1177. Now we can consider what happens if we combine all this with H1 and M15. It turns out that on M15, a pullback is possible, but not up to 1.1224, otherwise our intraday downward trend will be cancelled. Next comes the level of 1.1177. But everything is clear. In case of a breakout, we will confirm the downtrend and go to 1.1150.
M15 is directed up within the day, that is, we will pull back from the downside. I expect a downward trend. The target is 1.1160. The cancellation of the downtrend is the breakout of 1.1224. As I plan, we will go down when the American session starts.
I donít even know what to say about the euro.
The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range between 1.1115 and 1.1260. Actually, itís almost 150 pips, but the pair is stuck in the middle of the range.
In this situation, Iím waiting. Iím waiting for the price to test 1.1260. A breakout above this level will be a good reason to consider opening long positions.
In case the pair touches 1.1260 and does a false breakout, but then goes back below it, the euro will likely visit its lows. I think. Iím not sure if it will happen this week, but maybe.
For now, I donít have any open trades, just watching and reading the forum.
At present, the pair is trading at the support line in the range 1.1170-1.1160. The support is at the lower limit of a wider sideways trading range. Therefore, if it wonít be able to go down this level, a decline will be allowed to continue to the level 1.1130. Until then, it will begin its movement going up. Within the range level of 1.1180-1.1165, a morning flat was formed. If the pair is able to pass the upper limit, the pair will be given a signal to rise. The vital target is at 1.12-1.1220.
Yesterday was successful, because my reversal on H1 was not broken. It is still being tested. So let's consider what to expect next. The first target is 1.1150, while the second one is 1.1080. But the level of 1.1080 should be put off, because there is a border of stagnation at 1.1150 ahead, where I expect a rebound and reversal. Note that the presence of the rebounding level does not mean that I will buy. I usually wait for the indicator to draw a reversal formation and create conditions for opening buy deals. So far, the downward trend remains the priority. Since we do not have an upward signal, we should aim at the lower levels, for example, at 1.1150. Then I will follow the level of 1.1150 on H1. If there is a sign of a reversal, I will try to catch it.
Today, the top is 1.1223 and the bottom is 1.1171. And now let's combine these levels with the technical analysis and our expectations and see how things are playing out. As for the downtrend, everything is clear. The way to 1.1150 is clear. If we are below the level of 1.1171 at the European session, the downward trend will be confirmed and the way to 1.1150 will have no obstacles. As for the uptrend, there are some problems. With the breakout of 1.1223, there is no way towards the upside up to 1.1230-40. Still, we can go but not higher. So I think that if there is a pullback on M15, we should not go above 1.1223, otherwise the downtrend will be cancelled and the uptrend will be limited.
In short, we are going down. The target is 1.1150. The cancellation of the downtrend within the day on M15 is 1.1195. And the confirmation of the uptrend is the breakout of 1.1223. That's all for today.
The sales season is coming to an end and it is time to stop with them.
So, the euro is now on the verge of change.
I mean a change in direction. Since we are approaching the lower border of the balance, it is quite logical to consider long positions.
The season of sales was successful. Yesterday, there was just a couple of points left to reach my take profit and pending orders for the purchase. But I think that today, we will finally achieve this desired level of 1.1150.
However, it is no longer necessary. The main task has already been completed, and then I will look for a signal for opening buy deals. The price has entered the area of sales consolidation and an accumulation of long deals, that is, 1.1175-1.1150.
This is an approximate area and not limited. They may well go beyond it.
Now it is important to see a reaction in this area.
Today, large traders can fix their sales and we will see growth.
However, I'm still waiting for a spike towards the downside, and then an upward movement.
It is important to note that there is no strong signal to buy so far.
All my limit orders are placed with a view only to the bottom of the balance.
I'm waiting for a buy signal.
As for the pound, we have such a signal and I already see a growth prospect of up to 200 points, but as for the euro, there is no such signal for the euro.
We should be careful with buy deals, or be ready for a possible drawdown.
Here, on the contrary, there is a weak signal to continue the decline.
But I do not see many prospects for this decline. If someone is trading within the day by 20-50 points, you can sell from 1.1185-90 with a take profit order at about 1.1160.
According to the volumes, there is no sign that the seller is going out, or the buyer is entering. So far, they continue to hold and add sell deals.
Let's see what will happen next.
Maybe it makes sense to hold off on fixation. Anyway, at the very least, I will watch the pair without opening any deals.
According to the CME data, it is clear that open interest increased by 7 thousand contracts with a turnover of 139 thousand.
It means that someone have opened a lot of deals.
I think that this is a seller, because I have not seen any signs of a major buyer in the market.
Well, let's see. I need a reaction to realize the situation.
As you can see, the United States dollar has rallied rather significantly as this pair fell during trading on Thursday. We initially tried to break above the 1.12 handle but struggled to keep gains above there. We have seen several shooting stars in a row, and therefore itís not a huge surprise that we drift lower. As stocks in America continue to attract money, it also drives up the demand for the US dollar. All things being equal, it makes sense that we continue to see short-term rallies faded in this pair.
The target underneath will be the 1.1150 level, followed by the 1.11 handle. If we can break below there, then this pair could go as low as 1.10 over the longer-term. Rallies to the upside would be treated with suspicion unless of course we can break above the Monday shooting star, which would tear through a lot of resistance.
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