On Friday, the system confirmed an upward reversal.
The first stage of the reversal was confirmed by the breakout of the 1.1340 level. The second stage was a downward zigzag, that is, a downward pullback. Let's consider when according to the technical analysis, the first pullback on H1 will be confirmed. So far, H1 is directed to the upside. There is still no signal for sales. Of course, we can sell from the strong level of 1.1340 as a rebound from the level. But I'll pass, since today is Monday. But closer to the American session, it will be possible to think about what to do within the day, and whether it is time to pull back. In the meantime, in order not to rush things and not to mess things up, I can say that H1 is not yet ready for the downtrend. This means that it’s too early to sell. In addition, a pullback is likely to be made up to 1.1240 and 1.1220. We may create a flat range of 1.1220 and 1.1340, and then make zigzags until Friday, which is a warning that the uptrend remains in force and the pullback is removed by a flat. So, bears should not be in a hurry with sell deals. I consider sales only within the day and with short take profit orders. Now it's better to follow intraday levels.
Intraday levels for today.
The top is 1.1346, the bottom is 1.1251. According to the intraday levels, the downtrend remains relevant until we reach the deep downside. I do not mean the level of 1.1270 which we can easily achieve.
Following trading on Friday, M15 began to pull back. However, before going down, it needs to move to 1.1320 and 1.1340, and then down, but the bottom is not far from 1.1270. So I think we will most likely make zigzags here.
Before considering trading conditions for the new week, let's remember the situation on Friday, it deserves our attention.
The main condition for growth was the price consolidation above the 13th figure.
Everything was made as expected. We managed to break through the high and consolidated above.
So, the ground for further growth was prepared.
Now it is important not to mess things up. Let's consider what I expect for today and tomorrow.
First, we did not make a pullback to the area of about 1.1260 which might be a good reason to open other purchases.
Secondly, we are close to the downward target, after which we can go for a deep pullback. The target is 1.1390-1.1400, and the target of the pullback is from 1.1190 to 1.1150. Here we can fix sales.
And it is logical to open sales near the 14th figure, close to the new high of 1.1450.
Traders can immediately go down to 80-90 points, or pull the prices in the opposite direction, and then block everything as they did the last time.
So, we need to take into account such points.
In fact, we get the following picture: I expect a return to the range from which the decline of the June contract began.
According to the volumes, it can be noted that interest in the pair has increased.
The turnover doubled and the movement became more active, more than 50 points per day.
Last week, there were a lot of sales in the market.
This can be seen from the delta indicators.
Under these circumstances, the price continued to rise. Well, it is logical that smart traders supported their positions by limit orders and bought out everything.
But this does not give us specifics.
In order to set more or less correct landmarks, we should highlight the areas of volume accumulation.
They act as rebounding ones. As for the euro, this is the POC of the week in the area of about 1.1260. This is the first important support.
If we break through it, this will be the first sign indicating the uptrend has completed.
But we should reach the destination, and only then turn around.
Moreover, there is nothing left to reach it. After the breakout of 1.1260, the level of 1.1190 will act as another rebounding level.
That's where there have been the largest volumes with the maximum negative delta.
However, despite volumes, test, absence of debt, I expect a reaction amid the return.
From the level of 1.1430, I will consider sales.
But it is too early to discuss it in detail. Conditions are formed during the day, and it is difficult to predict what will happen at 1430.
As for the traders' deals, sales now prevail in the market.
The ratio of 80/20 indicates that the upward trend is still in force.
So, let's wait for conditions and then buy.
Moreover, I believe it’s too early to sell.
As for the news background for the euro-dollar pair, nothing significant is ahead.
Today, increased attention will be given to the pound. Some substantial news will be released today, so the price may reach new levels.
Monday is a hard day.
Today, I will go over the majors.
The pound-dollar pair.
In short, I expect growth of the pound until we test the debt in the area of 1.2950-1.1350.
More specifically, today or tomorrow, I expect a movement to 2670. Perhaps we will hit a new low and then go up.
So, I have considered this option and placed a pending order.
The current situation on the pound and the euro is similar. Both the pound and the euro is recovering from the previous decline.
At the same time, short positions are being added in the market, but the price is going towards the upside.
So, we should not sell.
There will be pullbacks, but I will use them for adding long positions, rather than for making money.
The euro-dollar pair.
I expect an upward movement, after which I will catch the downtrend.
In the area of 1.1390-1.1450, I will be looking closely at the price behavior, so I will not place pending orders.
I will better wait for a signal.
The euro turned around towards the upside and increased well during the previous week.
The turnover was increased and we were able to see movements of even 100 points.
The data on non-farm payrolls served as a driver, and the pair prepared the ground for further growth.
However, growth is expected to be short-term, as there is a significant limitation in the area of 1.1390-1.1450.
From here we can pull up to 1.1150.
This will be a correction wave on H4.
After that, we will be able to continue opening buy deals (unless the conditions do not change).
In general, as for both the euro and the pound, I expect the continued growth. Then I will adapt the situation.
Greetings to all traders and speculators here in the forum!
Here’s the chart for the currency pair euro/dollar:
Today, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading over the level of resistance at 1.13119. There were trials to decline the pair yesterday; however, it did not became successful. Therefore, the pair has flatten and just happened to stay in a small range the whole day. The pair has not yet moved to the level and while it is trading over the top of it, then there is a high possibility that the euro/dollar will head towards the upside particularly to the level of resistance at 1.14141. Considering that the pair breaks through this level, then a further decline in the pair towards the level of support at 1.11933 should already be anticipated. But for the time being, the EUR/USD remains to earn positions.
Now let's examine EUR/USD in detail. First, let me remind you about the general trend, it is upward. Of course, it can be still downward, because we all have different systems. And since I have an upward trend, I’m waiting for a pullback from north to south. What are my expectations, very simple, I expect an upward movement to the level of 1.1350, and maybe to 1.1380-90. I prefer the level of 1.1380, since it is rebounding, and the lower level of 1.1190 would rise higher amid the pressure on the upside. But the main target is still 1.1350 where the probability of a rebound is greater. When the price reaches 1.1350, a downward signal will be created. I think that the price will go from the upside to the level of 1.1289 today. Yesterday, there were narrowings, and after narrowings, we often get extensions. This formation usually happens before reversals. So, I hope that things will turn out the way I described. So far, I don’t see another option, only a movement to 1.1350, or maybe to 1.1289.
Today, we have narrowings within the day. Narrowings appear when we do not break through the intraday levels. Yesterday, the upper level was 1.1346, and the lower level was 1.1351. Today, the top is 1.1319, while the bottom is 1.1289. And today, at what level the European session will open.
Everything went almost according to plan. The main thing is that we have not gone beyond the specified range.
Today, I expect a movement to 1.1350, maybe to 1.1380 like a bonus, and back to 1.1289.
There’s nothing to say about the previous trading day. I could not buy and sell. And there was no activity for the pair. We were trading in a narrow range again ...
The calendar is not full of important news, which means we will not do any significant movements again.
On the M15 timeframe, trading is conducted above the key area of 1.1299, that is, I have a signal for continued growth. By the end of the day, the pair managed to consolidate above 1.1318. That's why all the time frames up to H1 are directed towards the upside. Nn M30, there is support at 1.1286 and this is a place to open an order, but I don’t want M15 to be broken, so we should not go below 1.1299 ...
The flat on H1 pushes me off. It is always not clear what to expect from it. After all, it seems that the upward movement has been confirmed from the trend levels, but we are standing still. The system area on H1 creates a barrier for sellers in the area of 1.1283. And if we get consolidated below it, I will have to delay my upward plan.
According to the Fibonacci grid, the previous area of 161.8 remains the desired target to reach, where an intraday rebound is possible.
In general, I continue to expect an upward price movement. In theory, it would be possible to buy from the current levels, since if this goes wrong, I will close the order when consolidating below 1.1283, but I decided to wait for an entry point at 1.1299. I expect growth to 1.1355 - 1.1363 with attempts to reduce from here.
For the euro/dollar currency pair, the daily candle closed at a bearish with a large pullback up which is almost half of the candle. This means that the bulls aren’t going to quit yet. Most likely, it will try to reach the main goal, the Fibonacci level -38.2 (1.1377). The price is not seen higher yet. Tuesday has a weak volatility. The moving average EMA with a period of 200 (blue) is near the Fibo -38.2. It is expected not to reach much higher today. However, on the other hand, the bulls don’t need this because they could simply close the daily candle on top of the fibonacci -38.2, a good signal for the continuation of the upward trend.
Today, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the USA will be announced. And based on the forecast, this will favor those in the upward direction. In case of a price decline, a rising trend line (white) and support at -1.1250 will be the main goal. The stochastic indicator is in the overbought zone which generates a sell-signal. Today, it will most likely test the fibo-38.2 (1.1377) for strength. Tomorrow, a good rollback will occur as the stochastic works.
Another stagnation of the euro after an intensive week.
Hello, dear speculators.
We are losing the euro again ...
We were a little pleased with the euro's optimism, but now it goes into the stagnation period.
Nevertheless, this week, we will see the transfer of volumes from one contract to another.
According to the CME data, the price has not gone anywhere, while open interest has changed a lot.
If you look at the futures chart, it can be noted that the price is currently above the core of the contract and the core of the year.
In fact, this is a signal for growth.
The only thing that confuses me in the long-term trend is the lack of pullback on H4.
Of course, there were small pullbacks, but there was no deep one yet.
Considering that we are close to the intended target, I suppose that by the end of the week, we will be able to grow and then pull back.
Today, I see the only option: to go down to the area of 1.1260-1.1220 and then to go up from here.
Here is the strong support which was not tested after Friday's breakout yesterday.
That is, we went to the other side, but did not confirm our intentions. So, the action plan for today is simple: I expect a pullback and I will buy below 1.1260.
The targets are short. I expect that on Thursday or Friday, I will cover most of the purchases in the range of 1.1390-1.1400.
As for the news background, there is nothing interesting for the euro-dollar pair. However, this does not mean that we will stand still today.
Significant movements for a whole week usually start on Tuesdays.
Let's see what will happen this time.
if we see the markrt of the pair EUR/USD its move so slow last 3 days ,, so we can see The EURUSD pair continues to rise calmly, to move away gradually from the EMA50, thus, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid as it is without any change for the upcoming period, depending on the price stability above 1.1230 and 1.1180 levels, but because there are just 20% chance to market down side so as our trend our main waited target is located at 1.1440 level
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1255 support and 1.1420 resistance.The expected trend for today: Bullish
Greetings to all traders and speculators who are here in the forum!
Here’s the chart for the currency pair euro/dollar:
The pair EUR/USD moved upwards yesterday following the news regarding CPI; however, it came back to the level of support found at 1.13066. After which, the pair managed to break through this level of support also yesterday and is now trading below this level. On the other hand, it seems that the daily level of resistance had a false breakdown, and thus, the euro/dollar is heading further at the bottom. This is all displayed by the RSI indicator on which constructed the diver. Therefore, it is assumed that there is a high possibility that the decline of the pair will resume going towards the level of support of 1.11920. The pair is most likely to move lower considering that the pair managed to move at this level. Thus, we can expect the downward movement of the pair to continue since the key level for this day is the daily resistance which is either upside or downside. As the pair broke through this level, we thought about the start of the upward movement. However, it was a false breakdown causing the pair to move downwards. Given this reason, the priority now is the downward movement to the level of support at approximately 1.11920, as well as the support level at around 1.11254. It is assumed that there are buy orders that the pair will take out; with this, it does not seem that the pair is going to long in the upward direction and depart behind such levels with a set of positions.
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