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EUR / USD remains heavily bearish.
After found support in the 1.1480 area, EUR / USD failed to recover above the 1.1530 threshold. This has revived the decline, and we are back to the 1.1450 area. Note the quick wick to 1.1515 which is due to a break and downward acceleration of USD / JPY.
However, EUR / USD has quickly corrected downward. This shows that the pair will have trouble bouncing in the very short term.
The risks therefore seem more downward, and this should remain the case as we move below 1.1530.
The euro was seriously pushed yesterday.
During the European session, the put level was being worked out well, but with the arrival of the Americans, the situation changed. The sharpest upward impulse served as a good opportunity to another approach in the opposite direction for major traders. There were too many traders in the market inorder to buy the euro "at a discount".
Such a maneuver clearly had an impact on the changes in the optional trend.
And the trend changed in the opposite direction. At 1.1550, call orders dominated, which naturally affected the price.
Before the breakout of 1.1474 occurred, the growth option remained relevant, but after the breakout and consolidation lower, further growth, at least until the European session, would be unlikely.
Changes in open interest.
According to the results of the previous day, a rather significant outflow of put options turned out to be at the level of 1.1550 at futures prices.
Consolidation amounted to 1,708 contracts. This was a very big decrease in insurance.
Earlier, I assumed several options for the situation development, but the second one was used, namely:
Outflow of put options relates to the fact that that a strong decline is expected and insurance is not necessary at this level.
Everything is clear about the first situation. I myself expect a growth from the range of 1.1485 - 1.1474.
Yesterday, we managed to decline by 30 points below the critical level. We'll see today what the inflow or outflow of open interest will be at different levels.
In the range of 1.1700 at futures prices, there is a maximum open interest on call options.
Maximum open interest on put options is around 1.1550.
Tomorrow, there will be an expiration of the weekly contract, therefore it is clearly desirable that the price should be between two important levels, so that option sellers do not lose their funds.
The price is trading below yesterday's area for purchases.
At the moment, I have two purchases, I will not close them yet.
The entry price for the first purchase turned out to be 1.1505.
Profit order will be set at 1.1605 and stop order will be placed at 1.1405.
The second limit purchase is opened from the borders of the critical level for reduction. The entry price turned out to be 1.1480. The level for profit order is at 1.1580 and the stop order level is at 1.1380.
The risk in transactions is 3% of the deposit.
The downside risks have strengthened, the first support at 1.1508 has been broken. Although 1.1431 is a strong support, but I expect a fall to 1.1411. There is also a risk of testing the recent low at 1.1301.
Only a return above 1.1625 would neutralize the chart and allow an increase to the 1.1790 / 1.1815 area.
Im still thinking euro will rise for the medium term, but there is still work to be done.
Today's intraday trading does not differ from yesterday's one, as today, I expect almost the same movement as yesterday.
Also, I expect a downward movement during the Asian session, so I will make a purchase from the bottom to the top.
As for the details of the movement, the southern scenario is still relevant. Within the day, the cancellation of the south is a breakout of 1.1480, the targets are below - 1.1430 and 1.1390. At the moment, the price is developing which indicates a southern impulse. Therefore, during the Asian session, I expect a downward movement, the price will be driven back. Later, we will see where it is pulled back and stopped, and then we’ll make decisions for adding sales. The rebounding levels are 1.1480 and 1.1510. Well, a breakout will speed up the pullback, but do not forget that after the pullback, it is still expected to go down, so while we should not wait for the strong north.
As for the trading range for today, the top is 1.1610, the bottom is 1.1345.
As for the levels confirming the directions, the top is 1.1527, the bottom is 1.1479. At the moment, just like yesterday, we are starting the day with the southern confirmation, and are already below the level.
Today, I expect a good activity on this pair.
A brief analysis of the current situation and trading plan.
After a strong impulse, the pair was able to ease up during the Asian session and stopped at the level of 1.1460.
And here's where it gets interesting.
The fact is that a local minimum of 1.1430 is to be broken ahead.
For this we need to tank up. That is what the pair will do during the European session.
I expect that the breakout will be over the level of 1.1430, and during the American session, the level will be broken.
Currently, the borders of disbalance are at the levels of 1.1520 and 1.1480.
What is the action plan?
Everything is simple:
1. I expect a pullback to the north in the area of about 1.1480 and will add a sale there.
2. I we go higher, in the area of 1.1520, I will add. In this case, stop orders will be above the level of 1.1540.
3. I expect a breakout of the local minimum and a movement to the 14th figure.
4. The part of consolidation will be at the level of 1.14, while another part (if the market gives such an opportunity) will be at 1.1380.
It's too early for purchases. The price can still go to the overlow in the area of the 14th figure.
At this level, or even lower (right up to 1.1343), we will be able to open purchases.
That's where yesterday major players added a decent amount of put options.
That is, they hedged their transactions from falling below the specified prices in such a way.
Therefore, it's quite possible to use the 14th figure today.
I expect the northern pullback, after which I will continue to conquer the 14th figure.
It's most likely to be the last dash for bears.
But they are unlikely to be able to reach 1.15. I am planning to enter a bit earlier at a price of 1.1480.
It's also possible that before a downward movement, the price may hang out in the range of 1.1520 – 1.1450.
yesterday before market closing eur usd recover 100 green pips and closed daily bullish candle however as stoshtic oscillator and parabolic sar on daily time frame given good sell signal and also eur usd is under good bearish trend for intra day so next week we can sold eur usd at 1.6000 with tp 1.5000 just for intra day
Daily Strong Resistance at = 1.1655
Daily Minor Resistance at= 1.1594
Pivot Point at = 1.1492
Daily strong Support at = 1.1451
Minore Support at = 1.3907
Today, as for the intraday trading, I expect a pullback to the levels of 1.1470-1.1460 on M15, but there is a chance that it can be done through the 1.1550 level.
Today, I expect a movement to the south or through the level of 1.1550. And after the descent, my expectations are northern, but most likely this will not happen today, since it will take a lot of time to move around these levels, but if we go south through the level of 1.1550, the probability is much greater, then after the downward pullback, we will have no chance of going north, but today I’ll take 1.1550 and 1.1460, this is my range. I would buy here, but today is Monday, there is no rush. But if we get the level of 1.1550, I will make a purchase there.
As for the trading range for today, the top is 1.1590, the bottom is 1.1400. So far, the price is “thinking” about the level to conquer, well, let it think, no need to rush.
As for the levels confirming the directions, the top is 1.1499, the bottom is 1.1432, the situation is very interesting, we are currently above 1.1499, but before the arrival of Europe, the price is often below this level, and this is the first sign that something is not right with the north.
Well, while I stick to my previous plan, I expect a pullback down, then a signal to the north. So far, I will not change plans, until my targets are broken.
So, I wish everyone successful trading.