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    Thread: EUR/USD (part 80)

    1. #541
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      As for the euro, I have not the best situation...
      I closed my sales at 1.1440 and has since added purchases. Naturally, purchases were made from put levels and risk premiums.
      But in a solid correctional wave, these put levels were broken and now, the price has already come close to the last lower border for the monthly contract.
      As for the weekly option contract, yesterday, the maximum amount of put options was at 1.1350 at futures price / 1.1310 at forex price.
      It can be said that the price has almost achieved this level. There are only 5-10 points left and we will be able to go up.
      The upper border was taken at 1.1500 at futures price / 1.1460 at forex price.

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      Open interest:
      Finally, the day has come when the monthly contract will expire. Why was I looking forward to it? Because it opens up good prospects for the price growth. There is Max Pain at the futures level of 1.1500 and this level should be tested, especially if it is a monthly contract, and not some contract with the expiration on Wednesday, in such cases, I have other statistics.
      I wonder if they will be able to make one and a half figures of growth today.
      Honestly, I guess this is exactly what they can do.
      Firstly, I have already mentioned that 150 points higher, there is the level of the maximum profit on sold options, so large traders have no reason to lose an additional profit and they can pull up the price as much as necessary.
      Secondly, the price has already reached the put level with the maximum open interest, so it can be said that the border has been achieved, now the only way is up.
      Thirdly, there has been almost non-rebounding decline since the beginning of the week. I think this is a strong disbalance which is equalized by a strong impulse in the opposite direction.
      Moreover, today is Friday and it has been full of surprises recently.

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      Trading plan:
      Well, the first stop loss order executed yesterday. The purchase from 1.1458 was closed at 1.1336. Almost 4% of the deposit was fixed as a loss.
      The remaining stop loss orders were moved below 1.1310.
      Besides, I opened another purchase at 1.1325.
      All take profit orders for purchases were placed slightly above 1.1450. It is quite enough to close all positions when reaching the Max pain level.
      As we remember, the range of the 13th figure has shown good support more than once, so we can assume that this time, there will be growth within this level, after which the price will not return to such low positions.

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    2. #542
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      For the first time this week, the bulls has showed that they are still in the game.
      And they have done it on their territory, namely at the level where they began to gain positions for growth.
      This is very important, because such a reaction at the buyer's site suggests that not everyone has left their purchases.
      Although the price managed to get to the lowest point of the range - 1.1360 (1.1320).
      It was here that large volumes were poured into purchases on Friday, January 25.

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      Today, the pair has made a new movement to the downside and immediately received a powerful rebound.
      If we look closer (TF H4), we will see the following:
      1. On Wednesday, the price passed the lower border of the balance and there were large volumes on the negative delta.
      After that, the price continued to decline due to market purchases.
      2. Today, we have reached the buyer's site and entered the buyers' area amid the impulse.
      3. According to the delta, it can be seen how almost one thousand of contracts have been purchased.
      But since there were pending orders for sale, the price was pushed further.
      It was the usual situation for the whole week.
      4. The most interesting is ahead. When the Americans joined the work, it was possible to see an even greater increase in the positive delta - more than 3 thousand per 4 hours, and here, there were also large volumes which pushed the price out of the buyers' area.
      This is the first sign of bulls' strength.
      5. After that, the price tried to come back, but it was not lowered below the gained volumes.

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      What is the result?
      The situation is unclear.
      There is the first signal that buyers have joined, but it is too early to say about the upside.
      In order for the price to go up, the following certain conditions are necessary:
      - firstly, buyers must show their strength, that is, the trend: whether they are ready to go upwards or not yet.
      - secondly, we need to gain liquidity, otherwise any movements will be over before they start.
      - and thirdly, we need to remove the "unnecessary" from the market.

      So, in order for the movement to change the downward direction to the upward one, it is necessary that the trend of small speculators also change.
      It can become different after a pullback to the upside (not deep) and the continuation of the downside.
      If sales in the market are held, that will mean that buyers have joined and we can add purchases.
      In addition, it is important not to go below 1.1360 (1.1320), otherwise everything will change and we will have to look closely to sales.
      Well, I do not exclude the option of false breakouts, but they should be "empty", that is, without volumes.
      Just on this point, my previous option is still in force.

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      In general, this is the place where further trend of the pair will be decided.
      And without such conditions, we can trade from the borders of the flat.
      Today, we have just descended below the lower border of the balance, therefore, purchases are welcome.
      I buy, because these transactions are transferred to the medium term and just today, the price allows us to open long positions with the first target of 1.1450-60 (1.1410-20).
      If there are signals for sales, I will move on to sales.
      Although the main pairs against the US dollar have already worked out, and I have closed almost all transactions today (gold and brent oil are still being traded).
      The dollar index also worked out the level of 96.35 well.

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    3. #543
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      As for the EUR/USD pair, my expectations for today are simple, I am waiting for 1.1310 and 1.1300. The cancellation of the downside is a breakout of 1.1358.

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      I will remind you about the signals.
      We have the executed signals for kiwi and brent oil. As for the greenback and gold, yesterday, I decided to close deals. Because they are delaying the workout, and it will probably break my signal, but those who have them in the break-even can remain them unchanged. Anyway, you don't lose anything.

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      Yesterday, I wrote about H1, the Asians didn’t do anything special, but still, the upside was not confirmed.
      Well, now, as usual, if we have confirmation, we should pull back down. While at the bottom, the way will be limited by the levels of 1.1310 or 1.1300, we will test them and then go upwards to yesterday’s high. Here are the plans for today. Well, then follow the situation with the breakout of the high.

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      In addition, I mentioned that EUR/USD created a new zone at 1.1335 and then it was worked out. There is the only area of 1.1370-1.1390 left that has not been worked out. If I'm not mistaken, today, we will most likely reach 1.1370 and maybe 1.1390.

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    4. #544
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      The EURUSD pair resumes its negative trading to approach 1.1300 barrier, to continue suggesting the bearish trend valid for the rest of the day, which targets 1.1181 level as a next main station, reminding you that the continuation of the expected decline depends on the price stability below 1.1370 and the most important 1.1443.

      The expected trading range for today is between 1.1240 support and 1.1410 resistance.

      The expected trend for today: Bearish
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    6. #545
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      Good Morning Everyone!

      I'm analyzing Eur/Usd W1 chart which is showing some interesting things. From last couple of weeks the trend is strongly bearish and fall more than 100 pipes in a week is normal for this pair. In the current week we see that it fall 130+ pipes. But I think this picture is now completed. There are very rare chances that it will cross 1.1300 Psychological level. In the upcoming week we will see 1.1400 again. The swing low is 1.1214 but this time it will not try to touch that level.

      Trading Plan
      My plan for next week is to buy it when market open near 1.1320. With this strategy the SL will be below 1.1300 and TP will be at least for 100 pipes. Wait is watch the movement of this pair in next week.
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    8. #546
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      Good day to all of you!

      The EUR/USD currency pair move towards near the support level at 1.13128 for a correction. Moreover, the development of the pair is very slow. Therefore, it does not seem like a bounce back from the level of support since the pair quickly left this level. It is believed that the pair only went there for a correction and will attempt to get through the support level in the session of Europe. As seen in the chart, the support level is very firm and the pair has fought off it for a couple of times. Furthermore, in case of the declining of the price, much of sell orders were build. Thus, the pair will most probably move towards the upside from that level to do orders.

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    10. #547
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      At the very beginning, I will note that I began to figure out the volume analysis for the following reasons:

      - I wanted to know why the price begins to turn at a certain moment;
      - I wanted to know why the level is worked out in some cases, and it is not worked out in others;
      - I wanted to know where is the best place to enter the market and place protective orders.
      There have been many such questions. Technical analysis does not give specifics.

      Now let's move on to the point.

      As for the limit orders, everything is still uncertain.
      When you look at the chart (in the middle of the movement), you really notice how sell limit orders work and buyers are removed.
      Well, or in the opposite situation.
      And if you ask yourself when the movement began, what was it?
      And here you can see a different situation: before turning down (if we consider the current situation on the euro-dollar pair), just the market orders have been crucial!
      But I do not completely understand this moment.
      Why is that? And does that always happen or in some special cases?

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      If I understand correctly, first of all, we need to look at what is the trend in the market (who and where entered).
      In the same place, we need to note the maximum volumes (in the profile) immediately and who was on these volumes (buyer or seller).
      If large volumes have not been at the top and sellers have gained a position there, we can safely sell.
      Is this logic is correct?
      There was such situation with the euro on January 31 and February 1.

      After gaining the main position for the sale by market orders, it was supported by limit orders.
      This allowed us not to give the price to pull back.
      And considering the fact that small speculators were buying from the pullback in the market, it made sense to pull the pair down.

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      But on Thursday or Friday, the situation has changed a bit.
      First, we came to the lower border of the balance for the March contract.
      Secondly, we came close to the site of buyers who bought on January, 24-25.
      Thirdly, buyers began to gain market position by market orders (as can be seen from the delta).

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      Well, there has been no reaction to the purchases yet. The price has not gone up, but there is no decline below the buyer's zone.
      So, will traders be able to gain long positions, or will sellers be able to push it?
      Now I think over the solution.
      Perhaps, it seems like there is no point in paying extra attention to it.
      But I will not rest until I figure out the principles of work.
      I will ask again, clarify, listen to criticism, and draw conclusions on the results of trading.
      After all, the main indicator for us is profit.

      So, I wish everyone good luck!


    11. #548
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      As for EUR/USD, I recall the main points.
      For today, the target is 1.1290. Then I expect a rebound and pullback. The cancellation of the south is a breakout of 1.1350. According to the technical analysis, a stop for those who are trading on the downside is expected soon.
      Once the market wes opened, the low was updated immediately, which means that it can be said, an option of the weekly candlestick is not relevant anymore, the candle has worked out its update. However, there are seven points left.
      Today, the most important thing for me is what kind of rebound will be from the downside and where it will begin. This may indicate the direction we should work.

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      As for the dollar, there are still signs that the greenback will weaken in the near future. For example, EUR/USD indicates that a pullback is expected soon. By the way, if Europe starts drawing a flat again, it may be the beginning of a pullback. But in this situation, we will not see 1.1290 today. However, it is necessary to reach 1.1290 today.

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      Trading range for the week:
      The top is 1.1550.
      The bottom is 1.1250.
      Intraday levels:
      The top is 1.1350.
      The bottom is 1.1320.
      At the moment, we are under 1.1320. And if during the European session, we are below the level of 1.1350, this will confirm the downside according to the levels.

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    12. #549
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      Well, the market is open, and there have been no surprises in the form of strong price gaps. Those who have been worried about the opening of the market now can relax, the market is loyal to traders so far…

      As for the option levels, the best trading range is now the levels of 1.1300 and 1.1400 at futures prices. At forex prices, this is about 1.1265 - 1.1365.
      In fact, the price is currently in the middle of these two levels and it’s quite difficult to say where it will go first.
      There is an assumption that first, the top at 1.1400 will be worked out, and only after that, there will be a correction to the put level. As the downtrend continues and there are no particular signs of a reversal, it is more logical to assume a further decline.

      Max Pain for the short contract is located at 1.1450 at futures price / 1.1415 at forex price, so we should return to this level and test it. Falling further or growing after the test is the second question, the main thing is to reach the optimal level on the day of expiration.
      More than 99% of call options are out of money, which means that there are losses on them. As for put options, the situation is better. In order to propel put holders into losses, we should raise the price.

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      Open interest:
      Interestingly, even Fiday's trading volume for the monthly contract showed that the main trading turned out to be almost at the same level as the significant open interest.
      If the trading volume of options and open interest have such synchronicity, these levels can be taken as basic for work.
      In the current market conditions, I believe that it is better to sell at competitive prices at call levels than to buy from the put level (although I had exactly the same situation).
      The best option would be a sale from 1.1400 / 1.1365, since I expect the continuation of the price reduction in the short term.
      The trading volume of options at this level is significant, so there is a high probability that this resistance will be worked out well.

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      Trading plan:
      At the moment, I have open purchases. The nearest stop orders for these purchases are at 1.1305 and 1.1300. When the price reaches these values, about 7% of the loss on the initial deposit will be closed.
      It is possible to open a limit sale at the call level of 1.1365 with a stop loss and take order of 100 points.
      A limit purchase from the put level of 1.1265 is also possible. Stop loss and take profit orders are 100 points each.
      This range is based on the option levels of the short contract, so this may be relevant to Wednesday and it is quite enough to earn standard 100 profit points.
      There is an assumption to close all current purchases at the total breakeven at 1.1385, so if the purchases achieve this range, I will do this. Then trading will be conducted according to the modified algorithm.

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    13. #550
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      Good day everybody!

      Today, the currency pair EUR/USD displays a movement slightly from the level zone towards the upside. However, it is believed that even if it moves to the upside it will not go farther. In connection to this, during the opening of the European assembly, a continuous movement towards the downside is expected.

      Yesterday, the pair Euro-Dollar accomplished to push the level of support at 1.13128 throughout the American meeting. After the breakdown of the pair, a following regression occurred. Thus, it looked like that the breakdown was not true. Nevertheless, since the pair continued to decline once more to the downside, it is expected that they will fall at the support level of 1.11763.

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