WEEKLY OUTLOOK OF THE DOLLAR INDEX AND BITCOIN, WITH TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
It's good to note that all eyes are on the dollar index this week. The dollar index was in the eye of the storm last week, it rose and fell at different paces, but maintained the selling in the later part of last week until the week closes. There is risk appetite going on in the financial market for now, the low yield in bond's of the US is making the US dollar to be less attractive to buyer, that will enhance the further selling on the dollar index for the rest of this month, except for some retracement. The view that the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan of Joe Biden would be reduced in the end after some delay is another reason why the dollar index is selling as the US is in desperate need of it. The dollar index is now at a critical cross road, time will tell on the further decision of the dollar as the Unemployment rate is still at the high side in the US. While the Covid-19 situation in the US is a great news, with cases, death and hospitalization numbers reducing drastically. As at February 20, the cases recorded was 69,729, which was against more than 100,000 in average of last year end. The yesterday's death number was 1, 831 and the hospitalization number was 58,222. The hospitalization was against the peak of about 130,000 early this year.
The Dollar Index Performance
On the performance of the dollar index, it had a rough week and closed at 90.36 as drawn from the Bloomberg data. It ended Friday with huge loss of -0.25%, with day range of 90.17 - 90.65. The yearly gain of the dollar index has reduced drastically to 0.47%. I fear it might soon reach 0.00% before the middle of March.
Chart Representation Of The Dollar Index
I see a continued selling spree on the dollar index this week, the whole of its larger timeframes are extremely bearish in trend. I behold the daily timeframe of this market, what I see is only a helpless market of a plain bearish candlestick pattern. The daily timeframe has the bearish outlook that could make the only visible trend line support on the daily timeframe at 90.05 broken at any time from now. The dollar index was strongly resisted by the trend line resistance level on the daily timeframe at 91.00, that has been the reason for the sharp fall on the market, breaking the support at 90.05 will make the dollar index reaches 89.14 support. Also, be on the look for the possible retracement on the dollar index, this might happen towards 90.55 area before the dollar index might have the pressure needed to break 90.05 trend line support before selling even lower.
TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
Last week was not a good week for my , I made a lot of mistakes and acted with emotions. I would have made more than $700 profit in my trading activities, but emotion took hold of me. I lost my trading balance of $1400 to almost $900 before I started making recoveries on that balance. I now have more than $1,137 in my account after series of trades. My last trade as seen below was the worse of it, I was in the right bullish position on Gbpusd and Eurusd, but the Retail sales news of the UK on Friday that came out to be negative made me to change my position, hence I lost with both sides of the the market, giving me the total loss of negative $129. I will like to correct my errors this week, I hope for the best.
WEEKLY OUTLOOK OF BITCOIN
Bitcoin is the talk of the whole world since last year, it was successful in breaking above the 2017 high last year, that had initiated the best of bullish progress for this Cryptocurrency. Bitcoin hit the market capitalization of $1 trillion dollars this week, a milestone that many market instruments and assets could note achieve in millennium, Bitcoin is truly the lastest financial markets name to reckon with as many institutional investors are trooping in and the rich companies of the world are now accepting and engaging in Bitcoin transactions. Elon musk bought $1.5 billion recently, a move that helped the Bitcoin to break above $50,000 milestone and psychological price.
Bitcoin will continue to rise because the chart pattern of all of its larger time frames supports it, they are all bullish in outlook. The weekly and monthly charts of the Bitcoin has the bullish candlestick pattern, while the daily chart preserves the bullish outlook, but today's candlestick pattern is undecided yet. Basically, the daily chart still has the opportunity to rise since the trend line valuable level of $48,184 continues to provide the short-term support for the Bitcoin. Only that if the Bitcoin could reverse back and break below the nearest trend line support level on the daily timeframe at $51,183, it could be further pressure towards $43,024 as a means of retracement before it would be rejected higher once more.
Good evening forex traders, I hope I met you well. I have been indisposed these days, that was why I'd not been so fast in making my regular daily posts. I will certainly prevail, it's a question of time. I have seen a whole lot happening in the forex market, I have missed some markets opportunities, but still have reasons to appreciate my hesitant. The dollar index is a powerful driver of the whole financial market this week, it deceived traders into buying earlier today, but could not break the barriers of many tiny resistances on the lower time frames, that was the reason why it started selling back. There are interesting discussions about the markets this week, I will be taking my time to unfolds them as days and their priorities align.
PRESSING MARKET DETERMINANTS IN THE UK AND US
The most pressing discussion in the market as of today is the UK's prime minister Boris Johnson focus on the scheduled speech on the lockdown easing, the whole market concentration is on this as it is a good measure to know where the pounds would head towards in the near future. While the leaks that were out, for now, shows that Boris Johnson will not totally lift the ban, it would be lifted over time within the space of five weeks. This might not move the pounds on the positive side as much anticipated. The CPI of the UK for January that was released last week at 0.7% from 0.6% shows that inflation growth is gaining more ground in the UK, this is surely a good sign that might make the interest rate be reviewed. Also, the vaccination of the British people is on the high side, and by now more than a quarter of the population is already vaccinated. This goes with the fact that the Bank Of England Governor Andrew Bailey is always hawkish about the economy, all these should give the pounds a lift.
This is as the GBP index makes the best of positive energy since the beginning of this year, it added to its gain today. GBP index is currently at the price of 140.56, which was against the opening price of today at 140.29. The day range for this index is between 140.18 and 140.69, with the year gain more encouraging at 8.11%. The GBP index will continue to trend higher, it will give the GBP chance to rise against many currencies if paired together.
On the US side, it is more likely that happening in the US will rather hurt the USD than helping the greenback. Truly, the economy of the US is improving as more positive forecasts are trailing the growth prospect of the country. But the persistent dovish statements by the FED Chairman Jerome Powell means more to the market. He had also iterated that more qualitative easing is on the way, this is never the lover of the US index as many bonds would be bought, thereby sending money abroad. The hope that the Covid-19 pandemic will soon be defeated is not saying nice of the USD as a safe-haven market, while the robust stimulus package by Joe Biden might only hint on at a few more setback and a little downward review. A situation that will make more money to flow within and outside the US, thereby hurting the US dollar the more.
The dollar index has never been so down in the past few weeks, it has always tried to rise, but that is always greeted by much falling. The dollar index is at the current price of 90.13 as indicated on the Bloomberg page. The loss of today is at negative 0.36%, while the day range is between 90.07 and 90.57, the gap is much. The overall yearly performance is now decreasing drastically, it's still at the positive percentage of 0.31% but has decreased too much in recent weeks.
The Dollar Index On Chart
The daily timeframe of the dollar index does not speak good of this market, it is extremely bearish in trend. From the fake price peak of 90.03 last week, a strong trend line resistance level had been constituted at that junction, this leads to the rejection of the price of the dollar index in a drastic selling manner. The outlook of the daily timeframe is bearish, while today's candlestick pattern is also bearish. Yet, the dollar index is left to decide Its further bearish disposition by first breaking below the low of last week at 90.08. The successful breaking below that level will make the market challenge the trend line support level on the daily timeframe at 90.06. If that support could be broken lower successfully, the dollar index will sell with higher volatility down to the level of 89.14 before February is over.
TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
I had made some devastating mistakes with my trading decisions since last week, I am yet to recover from that. Even today again, I had made some additional mistakes, that has caused my account balance to decrease down to $969.71, these are costly mistakes that I have to correct before degrading my trading performance further. My equity is now $1,107.71, thanks to the last 6 lot-sized trades and floating trades of the bullish positions on the Gbpusd. As the Gbpusd had the upper hand in the market today, especially above the psychological level of 1.4000, I am so much hopeful about the success of these trades. I will not close them until they give me at least 100 pips. This would have made it accrued $600 profit for me, and it would have recovered all my losses for me and with some profit in addition. I hope in God.
GBPUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE ADVICE
Owning to my aforementioned points about the UK and the GBP index, one should know that the pounds are on the favourable side, it will continue to rise against most of the currencies it is paired with today and this week. And with Boris Johnson's meeting of today in line with the success of the UK economy, lockdown and vaccination success, there will always be a green-light for the buyers of the pounds today and this week. The safe-haven dollar will be the hardest hit soon as there is more hope in the world as the world heals amidst my aforementioned points on the dollar index and the US itself.
The daily timeframe of Gbpusd is strongly positive in outlook, even the daily chart candlestick pattern has changed from bearish pattern of earlier structure to the bullish pattern. Gbpusd has the system of making a few fall before more rise, it had fallen today, so I expect much rise this week to follow. Especially as this pair stays above the average trend line support level at 1.3862. Gbpusd is positive indeed, but the professional target on it is simply sketchy.
Continue to buy Gbpusd above the psychological level of 1.4000 this week. Stop loss at 1.3995 and Take profit at your discretion.
If there is a currency that I am so certain of its appreciation this week, it's the pounds. The pounds has been riding under the good news that were coming from the UK, this has helped the GBP index to be riding higher with few stoppage and retracement. The data that were coming out of the UK are mostly positive, especially the news on the CPI, the Flash Manufacturing and Service PMIs. These news are few of the great news that had happened to the UK recently which were positive for the pounds. The claimant count was also released today, this has beat the economists expectation of 13.8K, it came out at negative 20.0K. This means that despite the lockdown in the UK, more jobs were been created, it's another reason for the pounds to appreciate in price today. The lockdown in the UK is being eased gradually, but it will take place within the space of five weeks, now you can take coffee outdoors and make some few hangout without penalty. The reason for the systematic easing of the lockdown is to give room for more effective vaccination. The UK is a leader in the world's vaccination, with more than a quarter of the UK citizens already taken the first jab, despite the fact that it is the priority groups that is being considered only. While UK envisages to vaccinate 80 per cent of those priority groups by early May, it has been up and doing to the task with the present success of their vaccination campaign so far.
On the part of the GBP index, it has ever been a prosperous market, it has ever been growing since the beginning of this year and February. The GBP index is heavily reacting to the news data from the UK and the natural way at which the Brexit implementation is playing and the general wellness of the UK economy. The GBP index had a previous daily close at 140.10, but with a current price of 140.69, this is a massive buy for this market. It has ranged today between 140.18 and 140.87. It opened for the day at 140.39 with good year's performance appreciation of 8.57%.
Gbpusd On Chart
What I could conclude on the larger timeframes of Gbpusd is that it is a pair of extreme bullish outlook. The daily, weekly and monthly charts of this pair are testifying to that as their candlestick pattern are bullish. Gbpusd has successfully defeated the psychological level of 1.4000, which is now the judging barrier for the pair at the short-term trading consideration. The trend line support level on the daily timeframe at 1.3862 will continue to provide the long-term support for Gbpusd, and this pair will launch toward a higher price that is not visible at this time. Therefore, it is advisable to make buy trades on Gbpusd today, but the target would be solely based on how you could take risk.
TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
I continued in the recovery quest yesterday, and the overall result of my trading activities was successful. I maintained with my usual trading pairs of Eurusd and Gbpusd, I was able to conclude thirteen different trading positions on them. The total profit I made was $156 after much of positive and negative trading results combined. To be candid, my trades of losses were more than the ones of gains, only that my last three trades were of good profit of $108 each, that gave me the edge in my performance. I love the way I am consistently managing my money and risk, this is what a good trader should do. Despite the fact that I lose heavily at time, I still have the chance to recover back since I never lost the whole of my trading account to a single mistake. I had recovered most of my last week's losses, I only have about $115 to make the full recovery. I am hopeful of today to make the full recovery and even make extra profit that I could withdraw. May God help me.
DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK AND TRADE IDEA
The dollar index is suffering from being a safe-haven market and from a fewer than needed good news that was coming from the US when economists project a more favourable news and growth for the US. That could be disappointing. The delay in the $1.9 trillion stimulus package of Joe Biden and the foreseeable drop in the end bargained bill is another reason for dollar weakness, because the Covid-19 ravaged US economy needs more fiscal stimulus. Furthermore, the low bond's yield is making the USD less attractive, while the lack of taper in the bond buying by the Federal Reserve will continue to weigh on the dollar. Although, the US is making success with the vaccination against the Covid-19, the success of this is hidng, it will help the economy of the US in the long run, but not immediately.
The weekly and daily timeframes of the dollar index shows a market that is much devastated, they are bearish in outlook. The daily timeframe of the market is more of the perfect chart to analyze it as the chart has the bearish candlestick pattern. Also, the trend line resistance level at 90.97 was useful in rejecting the price of the dollar index lower last week. That was the condition that initiated the recent bearish trend and disposition on the dollar index. That was successful to launch a break below the trend line support level on the daily timeframe at 90.06. This is a situation that has opened the long-term bearish channel for the dollar index with a target at 89.14 insight before subsequent selling could take place.
Continue to sell the dollar index below 90.06 and Stop loss at 90.13. Fix 89.14 as the take profit level.
OUTLOOK OF THE DOLLAR INDEX, BITCOIN AND TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
The dollar index resisted further falling in yesterday's trading sessions, but for how long? It can't be for too long as the FED Chairman Jerome Powell is always dovish in his remarks, he was only cautious in yesterday's defense with the senate committee. Naturally, the lack of taper of the bond buying in the US by FED is causing a low yield and it is knocking the US dollar down. This is happening as the US inflation is on the risk side, that is why Jerome Powell is trying to be careful as inflation is not good for now that Covid-19 pandemic has ravaged the US economy, with more than 10 million Yankees still out of job. Apart from that, as a safe-haven market, the greenback has been battered well as the world is being healed of the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive global growth is envisaged, this is making the dollar falls in price. The possibility that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package of Joe Biden will suffer more debate but less blow as delay lingers is weighing on the greenback also, because of the urgent need of the US economy to be stimulated.
The dollar index has made a break from the north direction it was pressing harder towards in the beginning of this year, it had halt at 91.58 high. It has ever since then depreciating in price, it might get back to the low of 89.14 in no time. The dollar index is currently at 90.10, with slight daily loss of negative 0.07% as seen on Bloomberg. The year performance had degraded to 0.12% gain from above 1.00% positive performance recorded in the first week of February. While the day range is still between 89.98 and 90.11, the dollar index has more room to range further before making decisions on the next move.
The Dollar Index On Chart
The dollar index is still weak, there might be some pullback to the year low of 89.14. As that is my priority target for this month, I will still like to iterate that there might be much ranging movements before an eventual fall. The dollar index might make ranges between 90.25 and 80.90 for some quite reasonable number of time before the huge selloff would happen on it. And on the daily timeframe, the overall outlook is bearish, this couples with the candlestick pattern that is bearish on that chart. What to take note is the testing of the trend line support level at 90.06 on the daily timeframe, the dollar index has been testing that level since Monday, but could not break it successfully yet. If the dollar index breaks below 90.06 successfully and stays below it, it could reach 89.14. If it could not, but stays above that level, the dollar index might appreciate to 50.56 level of daily timeframe trend line resistance.
TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
What I could express right now is joy, I am happy that I made it again. It was never easy and it took me extra days to achieve it, but I am happy to announce that I had fully recovered my losses, I even gained more than $135 in addition. Just this week in light of trying to recover my last week's losses, I got more losses, my trading account went down to almost $900 from $1,403 that it supposed to be. But I did not let that deter me, instead of that, I started holding my emotion and making the right trades with optimism that I will get back on my feet amidst proper risk and money management. I had done that successfully, my last trades was yesterday, it was a single trade that I divided into four parts. The success of those trades was $244 in total. If I had left thesr trades overnight, I might have made more than $800 on it as Gbpusd later moved more than 130 pips very quickly. It's part of trading, so I don't care. I had filed for a withdrawal of $134.86, you will read of its success tomorrow.
BITCOIN OUTLOOK AND TRADE ADVICE
Bitcoin is the name that came as a play but turned to a reality of appreciation. Bitcoin trended higher than $58,000 this month when Elon musk indicated that he had invested $1.5 billion in the cryptocurrency. But no matter how strong a market could be, it will surely be obeying the law of gravity either for a retracement or for a reversal. Thanks to this week's remarks from Elon musk, Janet Yellen and Bill Gates, they actually crashed the price of Bitcoin this week. Elon musk who is the CEO of Tesla iterated on Twitter that the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum "Seem high." While Bill Gates the co-founder of Microsoft sees a bearish market on Bitcoin. On the part of Janet Yellen who is the Treasury Secretary in the US, she indicated that bitcoin is "an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions," and "It is a highly speculative asset, and I think people should beware. It can be extremely volatile, and I do worry about potential losses that investors in it could suffer". Those remarks sent the Bitcoin lower this week, but it's gradually recovering.
On the 4-chart, Bitcoin has stabilized by holding above the newly created trend line support level at $44,807. That level has made the price of Bitcoin to rebound higher since late Tuesday, this could lead to a bullish resumption of the long-term trend of this cryptocurrency. But it needs to overcome the barrier of the trend line resistance on the 4-hour chart at $51,417. A break above that level will confirm the long-term bullish resumption for another test at above $58,000.
Buy Bitcoin if broken $51,417 and Stop loss at $46,951. Fix the level of $58,000 as the Take profit price.
From the inception and development of the Bitcoin, it has been envisaged that it has a great future, though the expectations on the future did not materialize so much until recently. Bitcoin has been breaking records since its beginning but the records it broke last year and this year were more alarming than before. Bitcoin as the digital asset that is not centralized gave it the edge over many dominant markets, this has been helping the price and share value of this cryptocurrency to appreciate on yearly basis. Bitcoin was successful to break many historic and milestone levels in 2020, it broke above $10,000, $20,000 and $30,000, before continuing this year to break above $40,000, $50,000, and now aiming to break above $60,000, which is possible by March. Bitcoin has grew predominantly within years, thanks to the institutional investors that are taking over from the "Whales," this growth will continue till the end of 2021 as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to gain more relevance in the financial markets space. Although, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply this week as I had explained yesterday, that will be temporary as Bitcoin might close above $55,000 in February. In my yesterday's explanation I made mentioned that "Bitcoin is the name that came as a play but turned to a reality of appreciation. Bitcoin trended higher than $58,000 this month when Elon musk indicated that he had invested $1.5 billion in the cryptocurrency. But no matter how strong a market could be, it will surely be obeying the law of gravity either for a retracement or for a reversal. Thanks to this week's remarks from Elon musk, Janet Yellen and Bill Gates, they actually crashed the price of Bitcoin this week. Elon musk who is the CEO of Tesla iterated on Twitter that the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum "Seem high." While Bill Gates the co-founder of Microsoft sees a bearish market on Bitcoin. On the part of Janet Yellen who is the Treasury Secretary in the US, she indicated that bitcoin is "an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions," and "It is a highly speculative asset, and I think people should beware. It can be extremely volatile, and I do worry about potential losses that investors in it could suffer". Those remarks sent the Bitcoin lower this week, but it's gradually recovering."
Over the years, Bitcoin has grew in both price and market capitalization. Forbes had predicted a long-term bullish trend for the price and market capitalization of Bitcoin with some sort of trend line system that worked exactly as predicted. Looking at the former chart of the Bitcoin's market capitalization by Forbes experts, it's clear that they are right as the market capitalization of Bitcoin were still about $300 billion as at then. Bitcoin has presently reached $1 trillion market capitalization, a milestone that many markets could not achieved in millenniums. The next destination of the market capitalization of Bitcoin is $2 trillion, which would be achieved faster than the $1 trillion milestone speed due to the more relevance that Bitcoin is gaining.
Bitcoin On Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin has created a bearish pattern on the daily timeframe, but the overall outlook on this cryptocurrency is bullish. Bitcoin was supported by the trend line support level on the daily timeframe at $44,855 when it fell sharply this week, that level has been rejecting the price of Bitcoin ever since then. The rebound upward from the level is not so strong, but it has been successful in making the price of Bitcoin to stay above itself in the last two days. Bitcoin is ready for another leg of bullish trend when it could not break below $44,855. Bitcoin would aim to target $58,000 barrier before going higher for the psychological level of $60,000.
MY TRADING ACCOUNT'S ACTIVITIES
Yesterday was yet another bad day for my trading activities, I ended the day in huge loss, it's no more funny for me to be recovering huge losses before making profits, that makes my success to be slow with my trading account. Eurusd and Gbpusd made the movements that were both bullish and bearish yesterday, hence the cause of the confusion in my trading of them. In all, I completed a total number of nineteen trades of buy and sell positions with 1.5 lot size each and everyone of them. The total loss I had was negative $240, this is another setback for my trading account. Hopefully by the grace of God, I will recover it back as usual before this week is over.
EURUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE SIGNAL
Eurusd is ready to trend higher, it's now gaining more relevance, and its demand among traders had improved drastically. Eurusd was a victim of the lackadaisical attitude of the European leaders, they did not plan well for the Covid-19 vaccines' acquisition. That was what the market interpreted as a weakness for the Euro, and hence the little buy of Eurusd when the dollar index falls, and at times, the Eurusd will even fall lower in such condition. Europe has stepped up their efforts to vaccinate their citizens amidst the lockdown in various European countries, so the Eurusd has much hope to rise as from today. The ever dovish remarks by the FED Chairman Jerome Powell is another reason for the USD to fall in recent days, this will give the Eurusd the upper hand to buy unhindered.
The daily timeframe of of the Eurusd is bullish in trend, even the weekly and the monthly charts have now joined the course. The Eurusd has the bullish candlestick pattern for today and this is making sure it preserves the general bullish outlook of this pair. I discovered that the hard-to-break trend line resistance level on the daily timeframe at 1.2174 has finally succumb to the supremacy of the Eurusd as he pair breaks it already. This has opened a bullish channel for this pair for target right at 1.2284 to be made.
Buy Eurusd above 1.2174 and Stop loss at 1.2156. Fix 1.2284 as the Take profit price.
AMERICAN EQUITY MARKETS ARE LEAST FAVOURED IN FEBRUARY
It is often said that nothing has beginning that does not have ending. This is what I could say of the American equity markets which saw a too much cheer last year and the beginning of this year. Even in this February, the American equity markets surged higher, but it seems that the way the dollar index performs these days is always in inverse proportion to that of the American equity markets. As the dollar index sold-off last year due to the ravaged economy of the US and the world at large, yet the American equity markets went higher. The trend seems to be changing now, we should get ready for it. Since late yesterday, the dollar index went higher till today, the American equity markets went down and closed lower. This situation is mostly caused by the high yields in the US and the relationships between inflation and unemployment. The situation is getting tough for the FED Chairman Jerome Powell as he wants the bank to keep the interest rate low near zero for longer period of time and he wants the economy to tackles the 10 million Yankees that are still out of job. The difficulty in handling these tasks is what the markets are reacting negatively towards on the American equity markets, but positive for the dollar index.
The American equity markets sold well in the last US session. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 559 points, S&P 500 dropped 96 points, NASDAQ COMPOSITE dropped 478 points and NYSE COMPOSITE dropped 332 points. While the year performance of all of these indices still maintain the bullish tract, it may not be for too long when they will start descending if the American equity markets continue going down the lane.
TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
I am not happy today, this was why I am updating my trading journal this late, there was no zeal to make a fast and cheerful update. I was battered and severely hit by the market in yesterday's trading, it was like a dream to me till now. I did my best truly, but it happened one way and another. I got it covered for more than 15 hours with my bullish trades on Gbpusd, the trades were not responsive so much, that was why I left them after it had recovered my losses for me, and also gave me additional gains. But, because I did not close this trade, the Gbpusd went down, which was against my chosen position, I incurred huge losses due to that. The total losses of the closed trades for yesterday's trading was $300, this is huge.
I have to be sincere that I totally acted due to emotion later after making the huge loss. I opened reversal trades that is against my trading principle, thinking that Gbpusd was oversold, believing it would reverse. It's plain with what Gbpusd is doing right now that I entered the wrong direction instead for me to wait till today to properly analyze the market, then taking a more decisive decision. My trading account would be left with almost $700 from the balance of more than $1400 if my stop loss is triggered on these trades.
EURUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE ADVICE
It was clear that Eurusd started buying when FED Chairman Jerome Powell cheered the market that he will intervene, that caused the dollar index to selloff and the Eurusd trended higher. Not that Euro is strong on its own, it is as a matter of fact weak. It was the promise by Powell that caused the risk-on condition, but that had stopped now as the market of the dollar index proves its supremacy over some kind of brain manipulation. The yield is getting higher in the US, that is the clear reason for the dollar index to rise and Eurusd to fall.
The daily timeframe is clear on what the Eurusd would do, the daily timeframe is bearish in trend and having the bearish candlestick pattern that couples with the reversal pattern that started late yesterday. Eurusd will not be making it anymore higher today, it will trend down to at least the level of the trend line support on the daily timeframe at 1.2089. This pair might want to be rejected higher from that level, and goes up after then. But in the situation where Eurusd breaks below that trend line support level, it will open the long-term bearish channel and trends towards 1.1975 as the immediate most important target level.
Long-term Trade Advice
Sell Eurusd below 1.2089 and stop loss at 1.2095. The support level at 1.1975 should be fixed as the take profit level.
GBPUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE SIGNAL
The inability of the Bank Of England Governor Andrew Bailey to give the market more positive insights this week started the falling of the Gbpusd,l. Even when the other major pairs were trending higher against the greenback in yesterday's trading sessions, the Gbpusd was only slowly moving up. Until during the US session when the dollar index fully took over, the Gbpusd crashed down more than 170 pips before the end of the day. The strength of the dollar index and the lack of further reason for the pounds to rise will lead the price of Gbpusd lower today.
As I see it on the daily timeframe of Gbpusd, it is a situation of a free falling,nthis pair has opened a new phase of bearish wave, it will still sell more than 500 pips in long-term disposition. The daily timeframe is bearish in outlook and in the daily timeframe candlestick pattern. This has helped the Gbpusd to create the trend line resistance at 1.4341, and breaks below the trend line support level at. 1.4959. This development has opened a new wavr of bearish channel for the Gbpusd, it should trend down towards 1.3631 for a start.
Long-term Trade Signal
Sell Gbpusd below 1.3959 and Stop loss at 1.3968. Take profit comes in at 1.3632.
LAST TRADING WEEK IN FEBRUARY, WHAT A WEEK FOR GREENBACK...
The last trading week in February had once again proven the supremacy of the US dollar. The dollar index was enjoying the month of February by climbing to as high as 91.57, before it started moving within 90.03 and 89.65 levels. The bottom level is higher price in comparison to the low of year 2021 at 89.14. The dollar index has been helped in later days of February by the profit-taking activities of the long-term traders and the money managers as the month ends. That aside, the high yields in the US bonds is another reason, this is pumping money into the US dollar as it is more attractive. This is issuing the US debt and it is more favourable to greenback. The downplay on the inflation reports and condition by the Federal Reserve and prospective further growth in the US economy and actual rise in the inflation added to the causes of the rise in the dollar index. The inflation information is already overheated compared to the brain manipulation of FED characters, especially Jerome Powell. There is likelihood that the dollar index will continue to launch higher as the market opens next week. The week will be the first trading week in March, this makes it more crucial as to whether the dollar index will dominate the whole month or not.
The dollar index had ended the second month of 2021 still holding its positive year performance. The year high has risen back to an encouraging performance gain of above 1.00%, this is against the lower value of below 0.4% that was recorded in the beginning of Thursday. The dollar index moved 84 pips from the low of Friday, making it had Friday's gain of 0.83%, that is huge. With the day range between 90.13 and 90.97, the market closed at 80.87 as drawn from Bloomberg. This level is just 13 pips below the next psychological level of 91.00, which is important for the dollar index if broken higher in March.
The Dollar Index On Daily Chart
All I see on the dollar index chart on the daily timeframe is a bullish market with a more verifiable bullish outlook that might last long-term than it seems. Yesterday's candlestick pattern ended in bullish note, while the trend line support level at 90.06 was instrumental to the decision that the dollar index made on Thursday and the whole of this week. That level had proven that the initial broke below it was a false-break, that caused a stronger rebound that was backed by the fundamentals earlier discussed above. The dollar index subsequently broke above the trend line resistance level on Friday at 90.56. This development opened the bullish wave's phase for the dollar index after some brief consolidations. There is no more barrier on the way of the market anymore, it should be trending higher to target 91.51 in first trading week in March.
TRADING ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES
My trading activities this week was nothing to be proud of, I made a lot of mistakes. Although, I was able to complete a withdrawal of almost $150, but my trading account is presently in the Intensive Care Unit, it needs careful trading. I did all I could, but the downward movements on Gbpusd cost me a lot. I will certainly recover it back, because I am not planning to back down on my quest of not experiencing margin call throughout year 2021. So help me God...
Breakdown of Friday's Activities
The first four trades of 1.5 lot each as seen on the image below was the trades opened in late night time of Thursday, it was closed on Friday at a massive loss of $135 in total. I then received the week 07-2021 gift of $184.62. I planned not to trade yesterday, yet I was tempted to take a short-term risk on Eurusd by buying it with a single 6 lot, that trade gave me the success of $42. I am truthfully thankful to Instaforex company for the gift given to me.
WEEKLY OUTLOOK OF GBPUSD WITH TRADE SIGNAL
I am happy to see the extremely overbought Gbpusd sheded much of pips in the last two days of this week. And now, it's certain that Gbpusd is bearish in trend, though it is at the initial stage. The situation in the UK wasn't the primary reasons why the Gbpusd made the huge fall, it was solely of the increased strength of the dollar index and the overbought condition of the Gbpusd on both the larger and smaller timeframes. Gbpusd had sheded the needed pips, there might be a room for it to be stable with the technical pattern next week. Above all, the fundamental analysis of the British pounds and US dollar relationships still support the fall of Gbpusd going forward.
The daily candlestick pattern was bearish on Friday and the most significant bearish channel's trend line support level was broken lower at 1.3959. Although, the start of the bearish movements on the Gbpusd started when the pair was unable to break above 1.4241 peak and resistance level aftet a single try. That level later created a barrier of trend line of 2 pips above it at the level of 1.3243. This development announced the welcome of the Gbpusd to the bearish realm, this pair will continue to trend lower until it reaches 1.3631 in long-term trading disposition.
Long-term Trade Signal
Continue to sell Gbpusd below 1.3959 with the aim of targeting 1.3631. Let the price of 1.3968 be the stop loss level.
Two days ago was my last review on the American equity markets, I am particularly about this markets this week, that is why I am adding today's review. The American equity markets was badly hit by the inflation target of 2% in the next three year set by the FED Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues. This is against the faster pace at which the US inflation is already rising in relation to the unemployment figure as 10 million American are still out of job due to the Covid-19 impacts. This is not meeting the American equity markets nicely, but a benefiting situation to the greenback itself. The FED Chairman has promised to stimulate the economy, a news that went well with the stocks temporary, but the inflation complications changed the narrative, thereby sending the American equity markets on their deeps until the market closes on Friday. The fear of inflation will continue to push the US debts higher, a situation that will allow for more high yields in bonds but falls the US stocks further as the US dollar benefits from it because the stock would be less attractive and US dollar more attractive to investors in this relationships. The US bond's yield made a break upward in last week Thursday by reaching the huge high of 1.61%, sending the US stocks lower and greenback higher. This might continue this week as nothing changes so far in the weekend. The Joe Biden's fiscal stimulus bill is being treated at the Capitol Hill, it had been passed by the House, it might suffer some delay at the Senate though. It might be debated much more by some far-left senators. This might send the American equity markets even lower this week.
Although, the major American equity markets are maintaining their positive performance for the year 2021, most suffered in February but still managed to gain. Dow Jones Industrial Average is almost hitting the psychological level of 30,000, it further dropped 469 points in addition to the Wednesday and Thursdays' huge fall. S&P 500 dropped few points, it only sheded 18 points. NASDAQ COMPOSITE did not follow the lane, it eventually ended the last day of February on positive note by gaining 72 pips on Friday, while the overall performance of it was positive with a gain of 0.56%, though it suffered the loss of 1.57 in February as a whole. NYSE COMPOSITE suffered loss of negative 196 points as it loses 1.29% on Friday.
It was just late Friday that I received the good news of the week 07 gift, thinking that I will receive another one by next week and subsequent weeks. But the forum administration and Instaforex company proved me wrong, they proved me wrong that being the weekend was never a barrier to their great services that I have being enjoying since some years back. I got another bonus yesterday when I least expected it, it was $107.64 this time. What else can I say of this great broker that had been so supportive to me, other than to say God will bless them and prosper all what they do. I am so grateful for all these kindness.
LITECOIN AND BITCOIN OUTLOOK, WITH TRADE ADVISES
The Bitcoin and Litecoin were two cryptocurrencies that was trending higher massively since last year. But this has not been the case since two weeks ago, there were negative comments and remarks from some powerful market influencers, these keep all cryptocurrencies plummeting till today. You may read some of my last exerpts from it as: "Bitcoin is the name that came as a play but turned to a reality of appreciation. Bitcoin trended higher than $58,000 this month when Elon musk indicated that he had invested $1.5 billion in the cryptocurrency. But no matter how strong a market could be, it will surely be obeying the law of gravity either for a retracement or for a reversal. Thanks to this week's remarks from Elon musk, Janet Yellen and Bill Gates, they actually crashed the price of Bitcoin this week. Elon musk who is the CEO of Tesla iterated on Twitter that the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum "Seem high." While Bill Gates the co-founder of Microsoft sees a bearish market on Bitcoin. On the part of Janet Yellen who is the Treasury Secretary in the US, she indicated that bitcoin is "an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions," and "It is a highly speculative asset, and I think people should beware. It can be extremely volatile, and I do worry about potential losses that investors in it could suffer". Those remarks sent the Bitcoin lower this week, but it's gradually recovering." With this understanding, one should know that the Bitcoin and Litecoin are in trouble untill further notice.
Litecoin On Daily Chart
Litecoin has been battered since last two weeks, it has had an extreme bearish movements and still maintaining a bearish outlook for today. Looking at today's candlestick pattern, it is bearish, it had likewise broke below the determining trend line support level at 163.21. This has paved way for the bearish trend continuation on the Litecoin with foreseeable target being at 69.93. This is the long-term target as indicated by my trend line trading system, this is certainly ambiguous in my sight, yet I do not limit what the cryptocurrency could do. It might take a longer period of time to achieve the target, but might surely get there. If the Litecoin would reverse back upward, it would break back above the trend line level at 163.21 to cancel my bearish preference on it.
Continue to sell Litecoin below 163.21 and Stop loss at 166.76. Fix the level of 69.93 as Take profit price.
Bitcoin On Daily Chart
Bitcoin is now a big name in the financial market space. It is extremely volatile and it has been selling since last two weeks. Bitcoin on the daily timeframe is bearish in outlook as it has today's candlestick pattern to be bearish. Bitcoin is a good cryptocurrency of choice for selling as it shows on the daily timeframe. The reason for that is because the trend line support level at 46,502 was broken lower since on Friday, Bitcoin had not been able to break back above that level ever since then. Bitcoin is weak, no doubt in that, but the extent at which it would fall is still sketchy. Staying below the trend line level of 46,502 means more weakness for Bitcoin. Bitcoin in that condition would be pressured lower to 31,883 if it could not break back above 46,502. My target on Bitcoin is a long-term scope, it will happen in March, but breaking above 46502 will nullify my bearish preference on this cryptocurrency.
Persist in selling Bitcoin below 46,502 and Stop loss at 48,000. Let the level of 31,883 be your Take profit price.
THE US DOLLAR DOMINANCE IN THE MARKET IS SETTING A STAGE FOR LONG-TERM DISPOSITIONS.
Gone are the days that the US dollar is favourably sold in support of the counter currency pared with it. The US dollar supremacy was initiated on Thursday when members of the FOMC and the FED Chairman Jerome Powell started retracting some of their positions on the inflation and the qualitative easing. It's not new that growth prospect has been predominant in the US since the beginning of this year, so is the inflation. This prospect which the FED Chairman and his top colleagues wanted to down-play in relation to unemployment had failed. The recent clue by the largest central bankers is that the bond buying might be taper and interest rate might be raised sooner than expected. What keeps the US dollar rising is the rising bonds yield, which is making the US dollar more attractive. This is set to continue when the $1.9 trillion stimulus package of Joe Biden goes through. This bill will likely go through because most of the Senators that might oppose it were on the ground of supports only if the minimum wage proposal was dropped. That had happened, and if there would be opposition to the $1.9 trillion, it would be a little dollar reduction, so the robust stimulus package will still go through. This will inturn cause more employments, crashed the American equity markets and weigh on the bonds. The resultant effect would be the increased yields and it will boost the value of the US dollar. All these are inevitable this year, it might even be sooner than experts expect. This mean that the bullish rolling of the US dollar will not be temporary even if there would be some retracement in-between, it's long-term. Conclusively, the positive than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday will increase the value of the dollar index in long-term disposition.
Since last Thursday, the dollar index has been in the eye of the market, it has pushed 200 pips upward. With the data obtained on Bloomberg page, the dollar index at the present price of 91.17 has gained 0.15% today. The day range of the index is between 91.03 and 91.25, a prove of strength as the dollar index stays above 91.00 psychological. The yearly performance has significantly appreciated to 1.38%, very soon it could reach higher than 2.00% if it continues its growth like this.
The Dollar Index On Weekly Chart
Although, it might be looking strange, but the bullish trend on the dollar index has started since the first week of this year. It started when the dollar index was not able to continue descending lower, thereby created the trend line support level on the weekly chart at 90.12. The created level has been defending the price of the dollar index unnoticed by many traders. In the wake of the reversal which just happened last week, the dollar index become defiant to the trend line support and broke back above the trend line resistance level on the weekly chart at 90.80 this week, hence the opening of the long-term bullish channel for the index. With the bullish candlestick pattern on the weekly chart of this market, it will continue to rise throughout the month of March, unless the dollar index breaks back below 90.80, which seems impossible to me. The dollar index will be trending higher systematic until the long-term bullish destination at 93.99 is reached.
TRADING ACCOUNT REPORT
I do have to hide it, I am simply not happy, I do not like the spirit that is working with me for now. Since last week, it's from one mistake to the another, and the good trades I supposed to trade would not be traded by me due to emotion, while the bad trades were the ones I rushed to place with boldness. It's clear to me that I have to take a break a little bit from the market in order for me to have the fresh breath of making the right decisions. I had determined not to make a single margin call this year, but my mind is shaking on that for now, because I had lost about $1000 of my trading account already. I am still expecting a more dedicated trading that can perform the magic. If I could ever recover this money back, then I will know that I can't lose the account this year anymore.
To cut short the voluminous images of yesterday's trading activities, I had shortened my trade history. The remaining ones were on the EURUSDWeek Instafutures which came out to be negative like the others. I have never traded that Instafutures successfully before, it's nothing though as it has low margin and risk on my trading account. I proceeded to trade two times on Gbpusd by buying the pair. But unfortunately, the two trades were negative for me, and I lost a whopping $315.62 in the process, what a week... I know where my faults are actually, it's because of the three strategies I use intermittently, I have to stop that before it destroys my trading account further.
EURUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE IDEA
The slowness of Europe in vaccinating its citizens could not be regained as other Western worlds have the wide gaps already, this will continue weighing on the Euro. And the high bond yields of the old continent without the quick intervention of the European Central Bank will hurt it the more. And as the USD is being strengthened, it will drag the Eurusd lower. That is as the daily timeframe of this pair is bearish in general outlook and today's candlestick pattern. Eurusd has broken below the determining trend line support level on the daily timeframe at 1.2083, it had another failed bullish break higher at 1.2091. This makes me to be sure that the Eurusd is extremely bearish, and it is trending down towards 1.1917.
Sell Eurusd below 1.2084, Stop loss at 1.2090 and Take profit at the price of 1.1917.
GBPUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE IDEA
Post-brexit implications are now toiling on the pounds, many businesses and headquarters are being transferred from the royal region. Some say the London might not be the financial capital as it used to be anymore, time will tell on this. The pounds was initially overbought in Gbpusd pair, such caused the initial retracement, but the retracement has caused the pounds to continue to leak its wounds as the UK's tax hike proposal hurts it more. The strength of the dollar index is another reason for Gbpusd to sell lower this week. The daily timeframe of the Gbpusd is bearish in trend and today's candlestick pattern, this should continue to make the Gbpusd sells lower. This pair broke below the trend line support level on the daily timeframe at 1.3953 before a false bullish breakout at 1.3971 was rejected lower yesterday. This has opened the door for more bearish movements on this pair, and the hopeful destination is at 1.3631.
Sell Gbpusd below 1.3953, Stop loss at 1.3956 and fix the Take profit at the level of 1.3631.
The resilience in the pounds might be coming to an end, though I thought the pounds would sell further, but judging with the situation of the market as of today, it's better for me to revolutionize. It's clear to me that the fundamentals that were supporting the pounds from the UK are trying to rekindle once again, especially for the fastest pace at which the vaccination against the Covid-19 pandemic is being taking place in the royal region. The UK has always been making plans to counter any risk from the post-brexit, this is what it is more likely for the pounds to hike in price this week. The Bank of England Governor Andrew Baileys' persistence in hawkish statements are good signs, a fast clue to knowing that the interest rate could sooner than expected be hiked. I will continue to study the situation in the UK to know what to do next as related to the pounds. The annual budget is due to be released today, such as the MPC member will speak today.
The GBP index has been on the rising streaks since last year, it has built on that this year without showing any sign of serious fall. The index has reached the year gain of astonishing positivity of 9.52%, even though the pounds index has dropped to the price of 139.61. The last day range price was between 138.96 and 137.99, the pounds index will continue to make a a bullish trend as the retracement expected of it is over, it will break above 140.00 psychological level today in order to launch higher this week.
Performance Of Gbpusd
It has been a positive market for Gbpusd, this pair has only had a little retracement since last year, it will make one step down, but two or several steps higher. Gbpusd is ready to break and stay above 1.4000 psychological level, it is on the preparatory stage to achieving that. The pair at the current price of 1.3974, it has gained 0.14% today. The pair ranges between 1.3937 and 1.3988 as drawn from Bloomberg page. Gbpusd already made a whopping success this year, with year gain standing at 2.14%. It is set to be trending higher today as both the technical analysis and the fundamental analysis are in favour of it.
Gbpusd On Daily Chart
I have rescinded my disposition of yesterday on Gbpusd, I am more of bullish direction on this pair today, but I will remain neutral for now. The daily timeframe of Gbpusd looks like a market that would fall, but trust me, the fundamental analysis will back the creation of the bullish candlestick pattern on that chart up. The Gbpusd will continue to test the trend line barrier level at 1.4008, a successful break above that level will leave the market no choice other than to rise back to the year high of 1.4242. But in the condition that the trend line at 1.4008 is too strong for the pair to break, there would be a sharp sell on Gbpusd towards the level of 1.3631. Gbpusd will only nullify my preference of the bullish trend if it could only breaks below the yesterday's low of 1.3858. In that case, the dollar index would have made some major break of some important resistance for Gbpusd to be pressured lower.
TRADING ACCOUNT REPORT
I have messed up my trading plan for the year, I let emotion took over me and my thinking. The mistake I first made was to be too defensive in the market and using three strategies together at the same time, not for confirmation, but using them intermittently, this is wrong. A strategy should be dedicated for a trading, it was too late before I realized this. My losing streaks continue today, I have entered the sell trade position in the market I hardly trade, it was also at the oversold region when I took that bullish order. Nzdusd has proven to be a very bad market for me, I actually used high lot size for the trade, I seperated it in four positions as you can glace from my image below. The trade is floating in terrible loss of $507.50. I know I will soon reach the margin call level, this is still better for me because I took this account successfully for about two months. It is not usual amongst most traders. I had learned one or two things about my recent defeat, I will be better next time.
EURUSD OUTLOOK AND TRADE SIGNAL
Eurusd will likely be selling, the US has better reasons to dominate the Eurusd in Eurusd relationship. Eurusd had sold since last week, but took a break yesterday after selling down to 1.1991, yet I am not convinced with the buying of this pair today, neither am I neutral yet on it. The lackadaisical attitude of the European Central Bank in deciding speedily on important issues like the stimulus package and Covid-19 vaccination will continue to weigh on Euro. The higher bond yields in Europe now needs attention, but nothing is done on that yet whether to taper or not. These lagging responses could not be interpreted well by the market. The strength of the dollar index is far from being over as I see more of favourable fundamentals supporting the USD over the time.
The Eurusd on the daily timeframe has the bearish outlook, it only made a few retracement. The Eurusd will find a means to break above the trend line resistance level on the daily timeframe at 1.2109. Failure to break that level higher would be the first sign to know that the Eurusd is weak, it should then use that opportunity to sell down to 1.1917. Peradventure the Eurusd overpowers the trend line resistance, it should spike high to the trend line resistance level on the daily timeframe at 1.2232.
Sell Eurusd below 1.2109, Stop loss at 1.2115 and fix 1.1917 as the take profit level. Alternatively, buy a break of 1.2109, Stop loss at 1.2100 and fix the price of 1.2232 as Take profit.
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