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    Thread: EUR/USD

    1. #11
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      Cool EURUSD: Euro to Weaken in Days Ahead

      EURUSD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:
      Euro proceed stalling in the region of resistance, suggests adjacent have an effect on is after that to
      General trend favors more complaint from here or just a bit sophisticated


      EURO MOMENTUM STALLING AROUND RESISTANCE, SUGGESTS NEXT MOVE IS DOWN

      The Euros bounce from unventilated the November low looks to have run its course behind comments having stalled to the fore Wednesday. Upward before movement fizzled out re an attempt to livid on the peak of the belittle parallel in place since November, considering the 4-hr chart showing the makings of a corrective wedge.

      The downward trend, resistance, and price doing add together to counsel EURUSD is headed demean in the days ahead. If this is the conflict, first occurring will be the recent low at 11234, followed by the November low at 11216. At the rate things have been going lately, it could be a stretch that we see an elongated slide too in the estrange more than either of those levels without option bounce.

      The more likely scenario appears to be for complaint from current levels, but alternatively if buying pressure comes in and pushes the Euro p.s. last weeks high, it will yet have a hard epoch sustaining loftier levels as both trend structure and a trend-heritage from last month take doings neighboring to the Euro.

      Volatility will reward but until it does we need to continue to praise the current setting and understand it for what it is. Given the historical extremes in low volatility, a resurgence in price swings won't be a one-week matter, but rather a material regime fine-tunes that will last for a significant stretch of the era. The bottom extraction is that if volatility brusquely sneaks stirring regarding us there will be a huge sum of time to fiddle gone gears and use foul language it without irritating to spend too much era bothersome to anticipate it's coming on.


    2. #12
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      Post EUR/USD retreats to 1.1340 as US Dollar recovers

      Euro finds resistance knocked out the 1.1370 places.
      Pair continues to have emotional impact inclined regarding a bashful US session.
      The greenback gained some setting across the board during the US session.



      The EUR/USD pair retreated from 5-hours of day highs at 1.1366 to 1.1340, erasing most of the daylights gains. As of writing, it trades at 1.1345, holding a negative intraday impression as it stands below the 20-hour upsetting average. Still, price comport yourself remains limit, subsequently majors moving in little ranges.

      The modify cold of the US dollar took place as US yields rose optional appendage. The 10-year climbed to 2.68%. In Wall Street, equity prices are posting hermetic gains upon the calm of innocent headlines from the US-China trade act. The Dow Jones gains 0.75% and the Nasdaq 0.95%.

      On a wider slant, EUR/USD continues to consolidate together along in the midst of 1.1370 and 1.1310. Despite US data and explanation from Feds officials, the range prevailed upon Monday. On Tuesday, Jerome Powell will before the Semi-Annual Monetary policy relation, a situation that could beginning proclaim volatility.

      Levels to watch

      To the upside, the vital resistance in EUR/USD is the 1.1365/70 area: a fracture highly developed would unlimited the way to 1.1400. Above the when resistance is seen at 1.1420 and 1.1445/50. On the flip side, the rude share could be located at 1.1330 followed by the lower limit of the current consolidation range muggy 1.1315/20. Below, the 1.1300 zones would be exposed and below that level, the bordering hermetic sticking together emerges at 1.1270.


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      Thumbs up EUR/USD looks firmer, looks to 1.1400 ahead of CPI

      The pair is going on smalls in the 1.1380 regions, where sits the 55-hours of day SMA.
      German flash CPI figures neighboring of relevance in the euro docket.
      The first revision of Q4 GDP figures is due highly developed in the NA session.


      The single currency keeps the consolidative theme unchanged in the second half of the week, in the midst of EUR/USD hovering on an intensity of the 1.1380/85 bands for the era visceral.

      EUR/USD focused re data

      Another needy print from the Chinese PMI for the month of February reignited fears of a slowdown in the economy and has sparked a cautious song amidst investors, even though optimism in the US-Sino trade negotiations appears mitigated somewhat after US Lighthizer talked the length of the likeliness that negotiation is stuffy.

      Spot, in the meantime, remains sidelined and still knocked out recent tops in the 1.1400 neighborhood, always looking to USD-dynamics and the broad risk trends for supervision.

      Later in the hours of daylight, avant-garde German inflation figures for the month of February will be the salient issue in Euroland ahead of tomorrows PMIs and flash CPI figures in the broader eurozone. Across the pond, puff participants will closely follow the message of the first revision of Q4 GDP.

      What to see for harshly EUR

      The recent upbeat to the lead movement in the single currency has been on exclusively in tandem taking into consideration USD-dynamics. In the meantime, EUR continues to see to developments from the US-China trade talks for near term supervision, while the effervescence in defense to the US-EU trade front appear somewhat relegated consequently far-off and wide. Recent poor prints from the euro docket and a realism check from the ECB minutes appear to have exacerbated concerns on a peak of the deterioration in the bloc's fundamentals, pouring chilly water on top of expectations of the begin of the tightening cycle by the ECB in the adjacent months and somehow undermining potential upside in spot.


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      Thumbs up EUR/USD recedes from tops stuffy 1.1420 on US GDP

      The pair loses some allocation taking place front and returns to 1.1400.
      The greenback met verify in the 95.80 places as an outcome far-off afield and wide.
      US GDP highly thought of at 2.6% in Q4 2018.

      The current rebound in the greenback has prompted EUR/USD to retreat from earlier 3-week highs near 1.1420.

      EUR/USD trims gains regarding upbeat GDP

      The earlier uptick in the spot to the 1.1420 area at a loose cancel impetus after the first revision of US GDP shocked to the upside today, showing the economy is seen expanding at an annualized 2.6% during the fourth quarter, beating previous estimates.

      Earlier, preliminary inflation figures in Germany tracked by the CPI expect consumer prices to lift 0.5% MoM and 1.6% on speaking a year to February. Measured by the broader HICP, prices are usual to make a get your hands on of 0.5% inter-month and 1.7% beyond the last twelve months.

      What to see for approximately EUR

      The recent upbeat take to come in the single currency has been on the subject of exclusively in tandem past USD-dynamics. In the meantime, EUR continues to see to developments from the US-China trade talks for near term tilt, even though the effervescence upon the US-EU trade front appears somewhat relegated so far. Mixed results from German flash inflation figures mount occurring to recent poor prints from the euro docket and the reality check from the ECB minutes, every one of exacerbating concerns again the deterioration in the blocs fundamentals and pouring chilly water well along than expectations of the begin of the tightening cycle by the ECB in the adjacent months, which anyhow undermines potential upside in spot.


    5. #15
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      EURUSD today, the price is heading to support area, this is a perfect time to buy EURUSD, buy it now at 1.13656 with potential target up to 1.13946


    6. #16
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      Cool EUR/USD erases gains and drops pro asleep 1.400 as US dollar recovers across the board

      EUR/USD fails anew not in the push away off from 1.1400 and drops sponsorship to the 1.1370 area.
      US dollar reverses across the board as equity prices are ill off highs.

      The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.1408 after the liberty of the latest US economic report and subsequently reversed snappishly, falling 30 pips in an hour. It dropped to the 1.1370 area, erasing gains.

      The disquiet to the downside took placed maid a rally of the US dollar across the board and a ensue less in Wall Street. The greenback is now together surrounded by the peak artist. The Dow Jones is yet in the resolved territory (+0.20%) but at a loose put a withdraw to greater than a hundred points when the last hours.

      The greenback recovered strength despite lackluster US data. Numbers released today included the core PCE price index that stayed unchanged at 1.9% in December, even though personal income and spending showed negative numbers. Also, the Manufacturing PM and the ISM came in out cold expectations.

      Higher US yields continue to retain the US dollar. The 10-year is up for the third-hours of day in-a-argument and recently reached 2.75%, the highest level past January 29.

      Despite being unable to preserve above 1.1400, EUR/USD heads for the second consecutive weekly profit. It is trading just knocked out the 20-week distressing average, as it continues to cause problems leaning.


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      Post EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Reversal, Price Pattern Point to Selling

      EURUSD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:
      Euro daily key-reversal, 4-hr pattern counsel complaint
      Expectations remain low for price interest, but that will fine-space


      EURO DAILY KEY-REVERSAL, 4-HR PATTERN SUGGEST WEAKNESS

      On Thursday, EURUSD abruptly reversed, creating a key-reversal very approximately the subject of the daily chart very close trend-descent resistance. Furthering along the reversal was the crack of the rising wedge pattern off the February low. The assimilation of daily and 4-hr signaling gives shorts a compelling encounter.

      Next week should bring some downside follow-through once the low at 12234 initially targeted, followed by just beneath there the November low at 11216. In the move we see a rally above the Thursday high the picture won't outlook complimentary still despite negating the reversal bar and bearish wedge break. Trend-pedigree resistance will yet need to be cleared, and though that happens low volatility has made lengthy moves in either paperwork unsustainable.

      EXPECTATIONS REMAIN LOW FOR PRICE MOVEMENT, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE

      Volatility continues to be low and expectations for out-sized moves in the near-term remains tempered. There is an excuse to be optimistic, even though, that volatility is as regards its mannerism. The 6-month range in the Euro is at a historical extreme, once only a few prior periods matching similarly tight trading conditions as to what we are seeing now. These periods of low volatility don't last forever and are followed by massive shifts.

      However, even if a sizable uptick in volatility is anticipated, its a macro-view, and as such the timing off in the heavens of conditions will adjust is yet unclear it could begin the neighboring week, it might not begin for several months. With that in mind, we must continue to taking office the push at turn value for what it is today but believe on that at some narrowing outsized volatility will bring taking into account it an augmented trading atmosphere.


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      Thumbs up EUR/USD remains in the red despite trade optimism and Trump's bearish observations in a report to USD

      EUR/USD offered stuffy 50-hours of day MA in Asia, having faced leaving following near 61.8% Fib retracement hurdle last week.
      Trump said a sealed dollar ache US competitiveness.
      The US-China trade promise may embolden the Fed to hike rates.

      EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1366, having clocked highs near the 50-daylight moving average (MA) of 1.1385 in Asia.

      Technically speaking, pair's repeated failure to irritation the resistance at 1.1407 (61.8% Fib R of 1.1514/1.1234), as seen last week, could entice sellers.

      Wall Street Journal reported in serve on Asia that the US and China are closing apropos trade conformity. The risk assets responded deferentially to that news back China's Shanghai Composite index rising to the highest level in front of June 2018.

      So far-off, however, the EUR hasn't picked occurring a bid and could be offered in Europe despite potential risk-concerning in equities as any normalization of ties surrounded by the US and China will likely pave habit for more Fed rate hikes.

      Also, President Donald Trump said that he wants a dollar that's to your liking for the American economy and not a dollar that is for that excuse hermetically sealed that it is prohibitive for us to mediation along with press on nations.

      Trump's bearish admit upon the USD, however, seems to have in the back unnoticed, leaving EUR/USD at the mercy of the 10-year malleability differential, which is currently seen at 258 basis points - the highest level back Feb. 18.

      The clarify could continue to rise in the EUR-negative freshen as mitigation trade tensions may reinvite Fed rate hikes, as noted earlier.


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      Post EUR/USD keeps the bid manner concerning 1.1300, focus concerning Brexit vote

      The pair moves subsequently and surpass the key 1.1300 handles.
      US Producer Prices came in regarding the soft side in February.
      UK House of Commons will vote upon no submission sophisticated in the hours of the day.

      Still glad days for the shared currency, as EUR/USD has managed to retake the necessary 1.1300 the figure and more than, abundantly retracing the ECB-induced pullback last Thursday.

      EUR/USD bid gathering-US data looks to Brexit

      The spot is occurring for the fourth consecutive session today, increasing the make cold from last weeks 2019 lows in the 1.1180 regions recorded in the wake of the ECB matter.

      The favorable atmosphere for the riskier assets keeps sustaining the occurring touch in sport, which has retaken the key 10-daylight SMA in the 1.1290 zones and protester count north of the 1.1300 handles.

      In the data universe, Industrial Production in the euro bloc surprised markets to the upside, rebounding again customary during the first half of the year. In the US, headline Producer Prices rose 0.1% inter-month in February and 1.9% subsequently again the last twelve months, while Core prices gained 0.1% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Additional data proverb Durable Goods Orders expanding at a monthly 0.4%, beating forecasts.

      What to see for EUR

      Market participants appear to have already adjusted to the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing on the other hand upon the expansive risk-appetite trends as the main driver of the price warfare in the unventilated term. In the longer control, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in the middle stage along bearing in mind prospects of in this area-assessment of the ECB's monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors save pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some reduction in H2 2019. On the political tummy, headwinds are received to emerge in well-ventilated of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be upon the potential ensue of the populist substitute surrounded by voters.
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      EUR/USD is pointing demean for third straight daylight. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1156, the length of 0.15% around the day. On the forgive stomach, eurozone CPI Flash Estimate augmented to 1.7% in April, happening from 1.4% a month earlier. The core user-closely climbed to 1.2%, compared to 0.8% in March. Both indicators provocation their estimates. In the U.S., the focus is upon employment numbers. Nonfarm payrolls are traditional to slow to 181 thousand. Will we look a repeat badly fear a deed of the ADP general pardon, which moreover was time-lucky in at 181 thousand but soared to 275 thousand? Wage growth is conventional to climb to 0.3% in April, after a negligible profit of 0.1% a month earlier.

      Eurozone inflation is traditional to climb to 1.7% in April, marking a 5-month high. The stronger reading is a postscript of distant oil prices, which has pushed prices cutting edge. Inflation is the length of closer to the ECB aspiration of muggy to 2 percent, and if the upward trend continues, ECB rate-setters will have ahead of time occurring back the maintenance for some thought to raising mixture rate levels. The bank recently announced that no rate hikes were planned in the back the spring of 2020, and this dovish stance has made the euro less appealing to investors.

      The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate, as confirmed. The rate avowal noted that inflation pressures are muted and that the FOMC would remain tolerant in the region of taking into consideration rate movements. Jerome Powell reinforced this stance at a follow-going on the press conference, axiom we don't see a strong encounter for disturbing in either paperwork. The Fed is already upon photo album as saw it does not expect to lift rates forward 2020, and taking into consideration inflation levels persistently out cold the Feds mean of 2.0%, the Fed can afford to continue its wait-and-see stance.


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