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Thread: wise-man's - Trading journal

  1. #671 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Quote Originally Posted by wise-man     
    Hello friends , readers and members of mt5 forum
    it's been a while since i updated my journal but that because i wasnt trading this period and now since am back to trading i'll be back to my journal again , as i see new updates have been applyed to our beloved forum i believe it is a good descion what they did and now only those with good content will remain here , so with no more to say lets have a quick updates

    am having an open position on the nzdusd pair , a sell position to be exact , the nzdusd been forming a geant bearish crab pattern on the daily time frame as you see below on chart i have catch the price in a close price to the upper line of the reversal zone of the levels 0.697454-0.701625 , so the stop loss will be small while the target is big toward level 0.678578
    the pair show an overbought on the RSI indicator which tells more signs to the expected bearish move





    also the levels 0.698461-0.704515 indicat to a strong resistance area that can show signifiquent bearish move on the daily time frame


    on the lower time frame such as the 4hours , we notice also a bearish divergence on the RSI(9) indictaor and divergence with harmonic pattern are very strong



    as for me i enter this trade and i have another entery point of the price reach you can take it as another confirmation to the expected bearish move is the break of the uptrend on the 4hours time frame



    what do you think guys ....!
    i think that NZD / USD pair faced strong resistance at the 0.7000 barrier, waiting for a positive incentive to contribute to breaching this level and opening the way to heading towards 0.7050, noting that SMA 50 continues to provide positive support for the price.

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  2. #672 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello members and readers of mt5 forum
    Welcome to my trading journal

    Lets get something's updated here ,starting with the USDCAD as I see a good setup on it
    On the daily time frame the CAD formed a bullish harmonic butterfly with a reversal zone between the levels 1.27312-1.26829 and so on we expect a retracement in love towards level 1.30021 before we see any other serious bearish move as the general trend still downtrend



    What also support the idea of a bullish retracement is the indication of the oversold on the RSI at the same time frame



    By lowering the time frame to the 4hours we notice a bullish divergence on the RSI(9) which is a sign for a shift in move possibility



    In term of trading I excute as the following
    I have open a buy position with the opening of the market with a target toward 1.30021 and an exit plan if the price manage to go below 1.26652 and in case the price goes in our favor a buy sto order will ba placed at 1.28342



    Usd index shows a high possibility to rise because of a bullish divergence on the daily time frame which mean we should expect a strength in the us dollar currency and therefore we have an other point that supports our choice

    Let's watch and see what will happen....$_$


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  4. #673 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    hello members and readers of mt5 forum and welcome
    in the last post in my journal i was in a usdcad buy position if you remember and that went to the expected direction after a a bit strugle well now lets check again this pair and have some trading ideas about it

    The Usdcad currently is been traded in a descending wedge on the 4hours time frame i believe the price will break above it and revrse the move to turn to a bullish trend on the 4hours time frame but before that i think we going to see a small move downward toward level 1.269271 and from there the price will be ready to shoot up



    another sign and actually a strong one on the daily time frame that indicate to the high posibility in the rising of the UsdCad is the bullish divergence on the RSI indicator along with the bullish engulf candle of yesterday



    so the next targeted levels as i see to the usdcad will be the level 1.293384 and then will be aiming for the level 1.331164

    as a trading plan i will wait for the price to either reach level 1.269271 and i will be opening a buy position with an exit point below 1.2597 and if the price break above the upper line of the wedge i will be opening a buy position with an exit point of the price going inside the wedge pattern

    another big advantage that support the idea of the rising of the usdcad is the us dollar index , by analysing the usdx i think the usd will be in strong position starting this week the usdx is falling from a bearish butterfly pattern to do a retest to the bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern so the general idea is the risign of the usd



    lets follow and see what happen next ......^^


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  6. #674 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    hey readers and members of mt5 forum
    and welcome to my trading journal

    following up with yesterday analysis the usdcad move just as expected downward but so far still didnt reach the level 1.269475 with today trading sessions but i think it will be at that level by tomorow and the pair will be ready for a trade



    as for another set up i went into a selling position in the nzdusd as it is ready to go short i see the price return to test a broken necckline of a reversal head and shoulders pattern on the 4hours time frame and breaking below the resistance area between the levels 0.715118-0.715819 and as long as the price is bellow it ill keep my trade runing toward level 0.700851



    for a long term analysis the NZDUSD reached a supply zone at level 0.726477 can be seen on the weekly time frame and we can also notice the bearish price action represented in a engulf bearish candle of last week and that indicat to the presence of the bears



    as for the dollar index as we saw yesterday we was expecting it to go test the neckline and that wat happen but it went even below which tell us to be caution about the idea of the usd getting strong , so we will be buying the usd against other currencies with caution for now until the usdx rise above the neckline again



    lets follow and see ....


  7. #675 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    hello readers and members of mt5 forum
    and welcome to a new update

    so previously we were following the nzdusd and we were in a sell position but unfortunately the price goes against us and manage to break again above the resistance area between levels 0.714856-0.715517 and contibue rising toward the next resistance at 0.721683 even the head and shoulders pattern didn't manage to push the price down , well as we said before the exit point was with the break above the resistance area and we get out with a negative 40pips



    now we notice the price also manage to break a downtrend on the 4hours time and it's doing a retest to it we can see another rise in price from now but no entery is recomanded from the current level maybe after breaking above level 0.722471 we can think about a buy position signal



    another pair we were following is the CAD i was expecting a rise in price from level 1.269697 but the price kept going down and it's currentlly at the lower line of the wedge pattern i believe it's a nice spot for going in a buy position with a large target and small stop
    specially if you check the daily time frame we will notice a formation of a pinbar candle if it close with this form we can have more confirmation about the rising in price for the usdcad





    and by checking the usdx , the head and shoulders pattern still valid on it but not so strong but i see that it is highly possible we see it rising because of the bullish gartly on it on the 4hours time frame



    lets follow and see what happen next ......


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  9. #676 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    hello readers and members of mt5 forum
    and welcome to my trading journal
    so the market is close let's take to chance to take a recup on what happen with our set up and where we were right and were we were wrong because that's the main purpose of the trading journal
    the previous main set up was on the NZDUSD it was a sell trade 0.712179 the price went down bur it bounce up again from the area 0.709892-0.709164 and this was a strong support area i didn't notice it and this area manage to push up the price strong , if you remebered the usdx was going under the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern i said we should be caution and that was indication to the look at any level could push the price up and that what we do wrong and in the next trade we will be more caution



    for the current move that the market close on the nzdusd retest twice the broken down trend and hit on the support area at levels 0.716314-0.715586 i believe for next week it will continue rising again to 0.722074 and a high possibility to rise above the resistance area there toward level 0.730218



    note: i will only count on rising if the price break above 0.722869 and the gartly pattern on the usdx failled

    the other set up was on the usdcad after the price hit on the lower line of the wedge pattern it start rising with support of the bullish gartly pattern on the usd index and as expected the price continue rising from the mentioned level and rises with about a 100pips and it close near to the upper line of the wedge , so regarding the expectation for it for the next week we will wait and see if a break above the line happens then probably the price will continue rising if not and also we saw the fail of the gartly pattern then we might observe a bearish trend on it



    we will follow and check them after the market opens ......peace ^^

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  11. #677 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello readers and members of the mt5 forum
    and welcome to a new update in my trading journal

    following up on the nzdusd price we notice that it is moving between the support area formed by the levels 0.716606-0.715906 and the resistance area formed by the levels 0.721421-0.722471 in some sort of a range trend since the opening of the market, unable to make a decision where to go but it stays highly expected to break below 0.715906 and continue going down toward the level 0.710355




    now if we also check the united states dollar index to see if the dollar will be in strength or weakness will observe that the move of the index is respected to the bullish Gartly pattern and it keeps rising from the start of the week and gives us a sign to the continuation of the bullish move which is the break of the downtrend shown in the chart below and this gives us hopes that dollar will be in a strong position for this week and the expectation of the fall in the nzdusd is what we believe in



    going back to the nzdusd, the pair was forming before the reversal pattern known by the head and shoulders pattern and in this situation, it comes to reverse the bullish move to a bearish, yet the price continues rising after retesting the neckline of the pattern but yet the price didn't go above the right shoulders so the pattern still valid and can be traded from there with an exit plan of the price rises above the shoulder, this can be quiet dangerous but it can be done with a small volume



    jumping to the second pair we still follow, the usdcad, this pair as we said before was rising to reach the upper line of the wedge pattern and it did it with the opening of the market the price kept rising and bounce down after hitting on it, for now we can only observe and wait for the break out since we expect the dollar to be strong from analysing the us dollar index



    that's all for today friends , lets keep observing and see what will happen next ...

    Approved

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  13. #678 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello readers and members of mt5 forum
    and welcome to a new journal update, so last time we were observing the nzdusd for a chance to sell as we expected and the price did fall down to reach the lower support line at level 0.710355 but it bounces from it again and the sellers couldn't push the price any lower and currently the price at level 0.721421 which is the resistance area we define before I believe it will push the price down again as the nzdusd is forming a bearish gartly at the same level resistance



    and by checking the 1-hour time frame we will notice that the current price is at a supply zone that looks very strong and has a great potential to push the price strongly downward



    regarding the usdcad, we had no struggle on predicting its movement as the price as soon as it breaks above the upper line of the wedge pattern it continues rising until it gets to the resistance level 1.286781 and turn to a bearish move, for the current price I believe it will keep going down toward level 1.270638 where I see a possibility of a bullish bat pattern and from that point, it will resume rising again




    and for more confirmation and prediction to the strength of the us dollar we check the us dollar index and we notice the same information and move to be happening a little weakness on the us dollar and then turn to strength again as it form also a bullish gartly pattern on it



    let's observe and see what happens next, that will all for today friends ......peace

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  15. #679 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Hello readers and mt5 forum members
    I will carry on with my journal and we will see some analysis and setups that might be good to take for the rest of what stays from the week
    let's discuss the situation on the USD by analyzing the USDX
    USDX on the Daily time frame





    as you see on the chart above the usdx has reached the area between levels 92.14-91.98 which is a daily support area after a bearish corrective wave from a divergence on the RSI indicator, the defined area looks strong and it's highly expected to push the prices up again and in results a strength in the USD against the other currencies, in case the price close below 91.98 then the expectation of the USD strength will be reversed and we will be looking to selling the USD against other currencies


    by lowering the time frame to the 1H we notice a bullish butterfly pattern on the same support area which may indicate that the usdx will start rising from the current moment and so on we will expect for example a bearish move in the pair such as the eur/usd or gbp/usd




    after checking the USDX and notice that we expect an upcoming strength on the dollar and so on we will check next the GBP/USD

    the following chart for the GBP/USD shows a breakout from a flag pattern which is in this situation a continuation pattern for the bearish wave before , and with our analysis to the usdx that shows us strength in the USD it supports the idea of the bearish move on the gbp/usd , also we see the price below the area between levels 1.376584-1.373477 which is a support and resistance area and closing below it means a continuation in the bearish move



    the expected target for the GBP/USD is the area below at level 1.348358

    in long term trading, the gbp/usd is falling from a big bearish shark pattern on the weekly time frame which means we will see the gbp/usd going for very low levels for the upcoming weeks



    For now, we will follow this pair and we will check later some other pairs I hope you find this analysis helpful and can give you some insight into the market and help you to make some decisions, goodbye for now.

    Approved

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