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    Thread: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Weakness Failing to Result In a VIX ’Event’

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      Default S&P 500 and Dow Jones Weakness Failing to Result In a VIX ’Event’

      S&P 500/DOW JONES/VIX OUTLOOK:

      • S&P 500 below 200-day, near bottom of rising wedge
      • Dow Jones near earlier-year gap-fill, below support
      • VIX yet to spike, more weakness might cause an ‘event’
      See how the quarterly forecast has played out so far and what it could mean to end June in the Q2 Equity Markets Forecast.
      S&P 500 BELOW 200-DAY, NEAR BOTTOM OF RISING WEDGE

      The S&P 500 dropped below the 200-day MA on Friday, now moving towards the bottom of the rising wedge pattern that kicked off the recent bout of weakness. The bottom of these patterns is viewed as the first significant target and may help induce a bounce.
      So far, the manner in which the market is weakening isn’t very concerning, though, at least not to options traders who don’t seem to be too worried as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is showing a muted response.



      With an acceleration lower in stocks a sharp rise in the VIX is almost certainly to develop. Watch for signs of it suddenly surging in the days ahead with more selling in the S&P 500. A sudden spike would indicate a wash-out and a likely low for the market in the near-term.
      This would be viewed as a bigger picture positive for stocks as minor down-moves quickly met with high levels of fear are seen as a healthier development than if the market were to continue to slide without seeing some type of ‘panicky’ behavior.
      We may soon see a bounce without getting a VIX event, but overall market participants seem relatively complacent in the face of weakness and this may be signaling that a broader decline, whether from here or following a small bounce, could become much more severe in the not-too-distant future.

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