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    Thread: Brexit Update

    1. #1 Collapse Post
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      Default Brexit Update

      The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away. The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October. PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago. Here is a summary of where the situation stands and some key dates going forward.

      1. Boris Johnson handily won the Tory Party leadership challenge and succeeded May. He quickly gave key ministerial posts to those favoring leaving without an agreement rather than accept the Withdrawal Agreement. The new government has adopted a confrontational approach to the EU, and it has yet to be proved whether this will have greater success than the previous government.

      2. There are three important players in this macabre dance. First is the government that is dominated by the hardline-wing of the Conservative Party. The moderate and Remain wing is on the backbenches now. Parliament is the second key player. It has taken steps to try to frustrate the government's effort to leave the EU without an agreement. The third power is the European Commission, which has made it clear that there will be no dilution of the backstop.

      3. Not much will likely take place in August. Given Johnson's preconditions, namely that the Withdrawal Agreement, which was the product of extensive negotiations is not workable. It ought to be re-drafted with the backstop for Irish border jettisoned entirely. Otherwise, he says, there is nothing to negotiate. The August 24 G7 summit in France may be a venue for talks. Meanwhile, Tory moderates will work with other parties to find other means to prevent a no-deal exit. The Tory's two-seat working majority in the House of Commons will likely fall to one after the August 1 byelection in a Welsh constituency. The Bank of England also meets on August 1, and in recognition of the economic paralysis caused by the uncertainty over Brexit, it will likely give up its tightening bias for a neutral stance.

      4. Tensions will ratchet up beginning in September. Parliament's new session starts on September 3. The government is likely to face a confidence motion. At the end of the month (September 29), the Conservative Party holds its annual conference. There is an EU Summit for October 17-18, and that would be seen as the last fail-safe date.

      5. UK Attorney General Cox authoritatively opined recently that Johnson can legally lead the UK out of the EU on October 31 without a deal even if he loses a vote of confidence, the government falls, and a general election is planned. The latest polls show the Tory Party around 10 percentage points ahead of Labour.

      6. Sterling has been trending lower since the end of Q1 when the exit was pushed back to October 31. It is off about 4% here in July against the US dollar, the largest monthly loss since the flash crash in October 2016 (~5.6%) and the referendum in June 2016 (~-8.1%). Assuming that sterling does not stage a significant recovery in the next two sessions, this will be the 13th consecutive week that sterling has fallen against the euro. Sterling's decline will impact inflation expectations (higher), which saps the purchasing power of consumers. It will boost the earnings of the global companies that are headquartered in the UK. The FTSE 100, weighted toward such companies, has been an outperformer over the past three months (up ~2.7% vs. -1.6% for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600).

      7. Implied volatility has trended higher as sterling has fallen to levels not seen in more than two years. Three-month volatility is a benchmark, and it is now near 11%. It began the month below 7%. The 100-day moving average is a little above 8%. The uncertainty is palpable and lingers. The one-year implied vol is a bit below 10%, and its 100-day moving average is near 9%.

      8. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, there is speculation that the Bank of England would cut interest rates, even if sterling is weak, and would likely resume its assets purchases. The government is preparing for a no-deal Brexit, and this may boost spending and inventory accumulation over the next couple of months.

      9. With spot around $1.2185, indicative pricing puts the three-month forward near $1.2240. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey puts sterling near $1.26 in three-months. Given the current volatility, the implied range is about $1.1520-$1.2960.

      10: Calendar

      Aug 1 BOE meeting, byelection in Brecon Radnorshire
      Aug 9 UK Q2 GDP
      Aug 24 G7 summit in France

      Sept 3 Parliament reconvenes
      Sept 12 ECB meeting
      Sept 18 FOMC meeting
      Sept 19 BOE meeting
      Sept 29 Conservative Party Conference

      Oct 4 ECB meeting
      Oct 17-18 EU Summit
      Oct 30 FOMC meeting
      Oct 31 Brexit


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      LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was confident lawmakers would support the Brexit deal in a House of Commons vote on Saturday. "I am very confident that when my colleagues in parliament study this agreement, they will vote for it on Saturday and then in the following days," Johnson told reporters. "As I said, it will be a very good opportunity for the deputies in the House of Commons to express the democratic will of the people as we have expressed it many times and the exit process will be implemented. I don't think there is any reason for the postponement.


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      Hi friends
      Talking of British Exit froom EU, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he will seek an early general election on 12 December. British MPs have already twice rejected an election and are now expected to vote again tomorrow. As per Fixed-term Parliaments Act, two thirds of all MPs which are 434 in total, have to back an early election for it to take place.
      Brexit looks inevitable and delay will not be coming anymore. 31st October, 2019 will be the last date not 31st January, 2020 as expressed by many experts.


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      Quote Originally Posted by Ahmedalwan     
      LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was confident lawmakers would support the Brexit deal in a House of Commons vote on Saturday. "I am very confident that when my colleagues in parliament study this agreement, they will vote for it on Saturday and then in the following days," Johnson told reporters. "As I said, it will be a very good opportunity for the deputies in the House of Commons to express the democratic will of the people as we have expressed it many times and the exit process will be implemented. I don't think there is any reason for the postponement.
      Brexit is proving to be a big hurdle in the progress of British economy. After isolation from brexit thier economy is suffering and struggling to prosper. Boris Johnson must try to convince his Parliament for the approval of Brexit deal bill to get a bail out package for economy.


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      Brexit delayed him. This, on the one hand, calmed the currency market, and on the other, gave the pound strength.
      Is there any special news from the UK today because the pound is appreciating against the dollar?
      To me, this growth is a little too big and quite surprising. What are your thoughts on this? Is this justified?


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      BREXIT is a big problem for eur and gbp. It main has hit the eur. The eur has gone low to lower for the whole year and it had reached the bottom several times this year. Because, the authority of brexit could not able to take any practical and hard decision to apply the brexit pact. But yesterday the national election of Britain has held and the conservative party has won in the election. As a result they will able to take a good and correct decision on brexit. It is the good news for eur and also for gbp. As a result the price of eur and gbp has gone to up trend. and market has moved high a lot of for this positive issue.


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      Default

      In contrast, the newly created Brexit Party has tended not to pitch its candidates to the Conservatives in about half of the constituencies, so as not to blur the vote of supporters of the EU exit.

      Many activists said the fate of their movement was inextricably linked to Labor leader Jeremy Corbin - the most unpopular opposition leader for many years and a long-standing opponent of British EU membership.


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      The brexit decision has been made since 1/2/2020. What do you think EURGBP pair will move like?


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      Quote Originally Posted by catmesfx     
      The brexit decision has been made since 1/2/2020. What do you think EURGBP pair will move like?


      Not only, EURGBP ! You have to be concern other pair too like GBPUSD, GBPJPY and all other GBP based pair. Actually since long time we are not updating about Brexit issue.

      I am not sure about it that Brexit issue will be solved soon, or we may see more fluctuation from GBPUSD pair. If you guys dont have more capital then you should not trade with GBP pair.


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