News analysis; Wednesday January 13 2021, before the New York market, the US dollar index rebounded in the European market, and the US Treasury yield stabilized to help the US dollar record gains on Wednesday. The pound rose slightly against the dollar as the UK played down expectations of negative interest rates. Spot gold fell slightly. On the one hand, it was pressured by the rising U.S. dollar. On the other hand, the epidemic situation and the political instability in the United States made the market a little worried. U.S. oil has dropped to a new high in the past 11 months. Previously, it was mainly driven by the general trend of the global supply and demand balance further shifting to the direction of shortage, and then suppressed by the rebound of the dollar. Overnight API crude oil inventory data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last month. At the same time, in addition to Saudi Arabia’s announcement of a production cut, investors still have doubts about whether the global economy will truly bottom out as expected, which also temporarily curbed oil prices. Further break the upside space. Right now, the market is paying more attention to the EIA inventory data released later in the day. After that, investors will still wait for the new US government's energy policy to be fully clarified before studying and judging the next trend of oil prices. There will also be clearer guidance on whether the growth of demand can outperform the recovery of supply.
Technical analysis: Although the oil price weakened last trading day, the decline was relatively shallow, about 10 dollars, and the lowest reached around 51.3. Today, the opening oil price continued to rise, refreshing the high point near 53. In the day, we pay attention to the resistance of the integer mark to suppress the market. In a strong bullish trend, it is difficult for the market to go down sharply before the daily line has formed a head, but it should be noted that since the short-term has continued to diverge, even if the daily line is rising, the upward trend will become stronger. Slowly. I believes that from the analysis of the 4-hour chart, the oil price fell slightly behind yesterday and reached a new high again today. The MACD indicator has formed a second-stage top divergence phenomenon. This is mainly due to the strong daily level of bulls.
The short-term indicators have not been corrected, forming a two-stage divergence. However, due to the short-term divergence, the market’s rise has been slower, and the two hinder each other. Pay attention to the suppression of resistance near the gap 53.3 in January this year. Pay attention to yesterday's high point of 52.6, if it falls below this position, you need to beware of a short-term head and shoulders pattern in 4 hours. In terms of comprehensive analysis and operation, I suggested to do more with a callback, supplemented by a rebound from high altitude, focusing on the 54.5-55 first-line resistance at the top and 52.5-52 first-line support at the bottom.
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