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    Thread: Forex Humor

    1. #41 Collapse Post
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      Current economic downturn to turn into a global recession



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      Leading market experts are now trying to figure out whether the current economic downturn will eventually turn into a full-blown global crisis. They are voicing concerns that now the odds are pretty high: weak economic indicators, a surge in unemployment, etc. Therefore, the government of many countries across the globe should go the extra mile to ease the coronavirus consequences and thus avoid a world recession.

      The first wave of the pandemic caught humanity off guard. Nevertheless, the governments of developed countries and major central banks managed to come up with an effective anti-crisis plan and stop a large-scale economic disaster. Their extensive experience in the world of finance and quick reaction have helped prevent the worst-case scenario but still they have not yet been able to fully protect the world economy from negative consequences. Besides, they resorted to a large-scale injection of money to support the economy. Some economists fear that it may lead to unexpected consequences, including a labor shortage in some vital sectors. According to some experts, the authorities of countries around the world have allocated about $8 trillion for budget and tax measures (without taking into account the interventions of the central banks). This is rather a large sum of money to inject. It may improve the situation at first but it is sure to come back to bite later.

      In addition, the economies of many countries are currently overloaded with debt. It may well lead to deflation. If this scenario comes true, the economy will be unable to recover in the near future. The situation is aggravated by the fact that now the Achilles' heel of the world economy is an unprecedented high level of public debt compared to gross domestic product (GDP).

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      Default Hackers hijack major US Twitter accounts

      Hackers hijack major US Twitter accounts




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      The rapid collapse of the stocks of the world's largest social network, Twitter, occurred after hackers managed to crack Twitter accounts of some of the most prominent US companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, and SpaceX, as well as economical and political leaders. When this news was revealed, the value of Twitter shares has reduced by more than five times.

      Shortly after the coordinated attack, which occurred on July 16, Twitter shares tumbled to a record low of $33.8 per share. What is more, hackers targeted high profile accounts as well as the accounts of thousands of ordinary users. The attacks were well planned as on all hacked accounts a promotion of a Bitcoin scam appeared. "All Bitcoin sent to my address below will be sent back doubled. If you send $1,000. I will send back $2,000", the hackers’ tweets read. Later, hackers tried to cover their tracks and deleted those messages. At the end of the investigation, it turned out that Twitter employees were involved in the incident. In a short time, hackers received hundreds of contributions totaling more than $100,000. "We’re looking into what other malicious activity they may have conducted or information they may have accessed and will share more here as we have it," the company tweeted.

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      Britain to spend over £700 million on new border infrastructure



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      Stepping out of any comfort zone is usually money-guzzling. The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union is also a significant economic burden for its government. Brexit will require a huge injection of cash for a long time to come.

      One of the most expensive cost items will be the construction of borders. Britain will have to build new border infrastructure and modernize the existing one. The funding is estimated to include at least £705 million (approximately $890 million). The bulk of this amount, about $590 million, will be used to create border ports. The remaining funds will be spent on software development and the recruitment of extra 500 border force staff.

      Nevertheless, these costs have been included in the worst-case scenario. Even if London and Brussels are not able to agree on their future trade relations, the money will still be allocated. In any case, from January 1, 2021, the United Kingdom will no longer be part of the EU Customs Union and customs authorities of the EU and Britain will have to establish customs and border control, which has not been exerted over the past 47 years.

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      US to face largest crisis in history



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      Analysts at Berlingske, Denmark's newspaper, forecast that the current crisis in the United States may become the largest one in the whole history of the country. The coronavirus pandemic has delivered a severe blow to the American economy. Therefore, the world's leading economists are curious about how the country will find a way out of this unprecedented economic fallout.

      However, this is not the first crisis in US history. Since its foundation, the country has gone through difficult periods many times, always dealing well with the consequences. The government and the financial regulator adapted an efficient strategy that helped stimulate the economy and avoid inflation. Now the country is facing the corona crisis and it is difficult to predict whether America will be able to cope with it. The figures for the second quarter were rather pessimistic with GDP shrinking by a record 32.9% year-on-year. Most of the world's countries would have already declared bankruptcy due to such a dismal economic situation. Yet, the US seems unperturbed by the present state of affairs. Acknowledging the difficulties, the country does not see a reason for panic. For instance, the decline in economic activity and the highest unemployment rate were quite predictable given the imposed restrictions. So, this news did not come as a shock to the government as well as to the financial institutions.

      In addition, the White House does not lower the statistics of infected people or give misleading information about the situation with the coronavirus spread. On the contrary, the US authorities are voicing concerns about the future prospects of the economy but at the same time, they are taking efficient steps to curb the crisis.

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      UK GDP slump in Q2 much worse than in rest of Europe




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      Q2 this year coincided with the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when the vast majority of economies worldwide imposed lockdown measures. Recently, national statistic agencies reported their GDP data for the June quarter. Having evaluated those metrics, experts at The Daily Telegraph estimated the extent of the coronavirus-driven crisis for the eurozone countries. Experts found out a striking difference between winners and losers in the battle with COVID-19. “The UK economy is set to suffer the biggest COVID hit in Europe after a long lockdown combined toxically with the UK’s heavy reliance on the service industry and “social consumption”,” The Daily Telegraph comments on the post-pandemic economic conditions in the UK. The national output tumbled 21% in annual terms in Q2 2020 that looks dreadful compared to other European countries. The British economy survived the worst quarter since the records began in 1955. Besides, analysts warn the British authorities of bleak prospects for the whole 2020. The slump in the UK’s economy could be twice deeper on a yearly basis than the contraction in the US economy. Experts predict at least a 10.6% fall in 2020.

      They pinpoint the reasons behind such a dismal economic performance. Originally, London downplayed the gravity of the situation and hence imposed restrictions later than other European countries. Secondly, the longer duration of its lockdown could mean that the UK’s economic recovery is also lagging behind others. Another factor to add to the doom and gloom is that the UK government is running out of options for economic stimulus. So, the Kingdom is braced for another tough challenge this autumn.

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      Russia sticks to its de-dollarization plan




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      Trade statistics show that instead of switching to payments in national currencies against the background of de-dollarization, China and Russia are making transactions using the euro. Notably, mutual payments in euros have become so frequent so that economists are perplexed. The EU is among those countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. Therefore, it is rather strange to shift from the national currency of one opponent, namely the US, to the currency of the other one.

      Experts at Focus note that while exporting to China, Russia receives payment in dollars, rubles, or yuans. Trade between Moscow and Beijing has been mainly in euros. Unfortunately, loud statements of the Russian government about the complete switch to transactions in the national currency to minimize the impact of the Western sanctions and the US dollar, turned out to be just empty words. China and Russia use foreign currency, especially the euro, in mutual payments. The greenback takes second place. The ruble gives way even to the pound sterling and the yen. The Russian government itself prefers foreign assets to the ruble. According to Russia's central bank, in the second quarter of this year, 50.8% of all exported goods from Russia to China were paid in euros. Thus, the euro has already surpassed the level of 50% for the second time. At the same time, it is difficult to grasp why Russia is sticking to such a weird strategy. It is reducing the share of dollars in its payments with other countries to weaken the influence of the sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Eastern Ukraine. The EU introduced sanctions against Russia for the same reason too. However, this fact seems to be forgotten.

      This is why experts are now widely criticizing the so-called de-dollarization. By ditching the greenback and switching to the euro, Russia has traded bad for worse.

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      US considers cutting economic ties with China



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      The United States is one of the few countries that can dictate its own terms while negotiating with China. Besides, the US can even completely break up economic relations with China without taking any risks. Interestingly, the US has no loans in China’s banks and does not depend on China's money in joint projects or on Chinese consumer goods.

      Being well aware of its advantage, Washington admits the possibility of a complete break of any economic ties with China. Economists say that if it happens, the US will easily fill the gaps in the market after China's firm and imports are reduced to a minimum. Beijing, on the other hand, will be adversely affected by such a decision as it will pose a great threat to its economic power. Considering this possibility, US President Donald Trump said in an interview that the US is not getting anything from China yet. The country is only losing money, losing hundreds of billions of dollars. Therefore, if China does not fulfill its obligations under the Phase One trade agreement, the US will not hesitate to cut ties with China. The American market for China is crucial in terms of economic benefits. The US market is so vast that it will not collapse without Chinese consumers. Trump understands this economic advantage and uses it as leverage against China. In addition, taking into account the latest events in the countries' relations, Trump is more likely to take a tough stance on China. The US is blaming China for the coronavirus spread, albeit China denies any accusations. Moreover, China is tightening its iron grip on Hong Kong constantly violating its obligations under the Phase One trade deal. Patience is not a strong point of Trump. Beijing has been testing his patience for a long time. One day he will simply explode with anger like a volcano.

      Notably, the US-China trade relations improved slightly since the parties signed the Phase One trade agreement in January. Yet, it seems that this fragile peace will soon be over.

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      Italy and Spain dragging down EU economy




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      After a surge in economic indicators, the EU economic revival seems to have slowed down. Europe was quite able to halt the decline in the economy. Not long ago, it reported the moderate but stable recovery of economic indicators, albeit some member states still lagged behind.

      The devastating consequences of the coronavirus outbreak and the steepest fall in oil prices are likely to affect the region's economy in the long term. This is why only the joint efforts of all member states can help the region to get back on track. However, as it turns out not all European countries are on the road to recovery. Some are still dealing with the corona crisis darkening the prospects of a quick recovery in the euro area. The continuing decline in the GDP of Spain and Italy has become the main obstacle for the region's rebound from the crisis. "The autumn is likely to still see the economy rebound strongly from the collapse witnessed in the spring. The survey highlights how policymakers will need to remain focused firmly on sustaining the recovery," Chris Williamson, a chief business economist at IHS Markit, pointed out.

      The EU economy shrank by a record 14.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, capping its sharpest decline observed since the time series started in 1995.

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      Analysts see US dollar's grim future




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      Short-term and long-term forecasts for the US dollar are becoming gloomier and gloomier. Moreover, analysts will hardly make any positive predictions.

      Ulf Lindahl, the chief investment officer of currency manager A.G. Bisset, believes that the US currency will plunge by 36% as early as next year. Notably, the greenback has already lost 11% since the beginning of the year. Ulf Lindahl is sure that the currency has not reached its limit and it may slump to “the levels it has not seen in more than a decade”. He also supposes that investors should sell off the US dollar. The fact is that the dollar will lose in value even if the worst predictions do not come true.

      Various factors are weighing on the US dollar. The US economic and political problems have an extremely negative influence on the national currency. Thus, the US GDP plunged by a record 40% in the second quarter of the year. Moreover, the Fed’s monetary policy does not provide any real support to the country’s economy. At the same time, numerous sanctions imposed on most countries have significantly undermined confidence in the dollar. So, investors will hardly pump money into the shaky asset.

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      OPEC members comply with output cut deal by 103%




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      In August, OPEC countries fulfilled the agreement by an impressive 103%. They increased oil production by 760,000 barrels per day to 24.05 million b/d, surpassing the June indicator.

      Additionally, new quotas for reducing oil production for OPEC+ countries in the world hydrocarbon market came into effect in August. It means that the organization is ready to compensate for cartel countries and independent oil producers in order to help them cut output beyond the established quotas.

      So far, the OPEC+ agreement on cutting oil production in an updated form has been applied only to Iraq, which is the second-largest oil producer. According to analysts, this country failed to comply with the terms of the agreement.

      In August, the Iraqi authorities promised to lower production by an additional 400,000 barrels per day, but the realization of this plan was rather questionable. Even taking into account the established compensation, the country fulfilled the agreement only by 80% and without compensations by 118%. This had a negative impact on the overall reduction in oil production by OPEC+ countries.

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