Good morning. I am updating my trading journal with the analysis of silver.Silver still has some way to go before bottoming. It has not rallied despite a lower US Dollar Index (gold and miners did not rally either) and a higher stock market. Silver has bright days ahead, but not until it passes this most recent downward shift in trend. And please remember, gold’s more volatile little brother is more prone to sudden price swings, as traders like to pick up some cheap silver after a pullback. What does this imply? Not much, actually. It means that the white metal is continuing to trade sideways after breaking below the rising, medium-term support line in mid-September.
Silver shrugged off the rally in the general stock market and the decline in the USD Index – it could have rallied on any of the above, and instead it just kept consolidating.
Consequently, silver seems to be preparing for a bigger mover lower.Silver is more or less at the level just before it broke, gold is below it, and mining stocks are also below it – the most out of the entire . So, it is not only the case that silver was strong and miners were weak in the last several days – it’s been the case over the past few months as well. The implications are bearish.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast –
The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but then has turned around to show signs of exhaustion. At this point, I would love to see a significant pullback because it could give us an opportunity to pick up a bit of value. The most obvious support level will be the ¥145 level, as it was where we broke out from and have not returned to retest that. To the upside, if we were to break to the upside, we could go looking towards the ¥150 level. The biggest problem with that move of course would be the fact that it would only extend the overbought condition which of course is going to be difficult.
I still prefer the pullback, and I think that it would be the best thing for this market. At that point, I would anticipate a lot of people who have missed this move to jump in and take advantage of it, after a little bit of stabilization. The market has gotten far too ahead of itself, and I think at this point we continue to see an overall bullish attitude due to the fact that the inoculations in the United Kingdom of course have outpaced many of the G-10 peers, and I think that will be one of the things that people pay the most attention to.
Having said that, I will be a value hunters and looking to take advantage of what I believe is a move that probably has several months, if not a few years to play out. Keep in mind that this pair is also highly sensitive to risk appetite, so pay attention to risk assets and what they are doing as well.
Crude oil analysis.....
Oil prices continue to rally on Thursday as a cold blast that's taken out almost 40 percent of U.S. crude production morphed into a global supply shock. Brent crude for April settlement rose half a percent to $64.65, after having earlier climbed above $65 a barrel due to supply disruptions in Texas and hopes of demand rebound. U.S. crude futures were up half a percent at $61.42 a barrel. More than 4 million barrels a day of U.S. oil output is now offline as Texas oil producers and refiners remain shut due to icy cold weather that's frozen well operations and led to widespread power cuts. Officials warned of "disasters within the disaster" of historic cold weather that left millions without heat for a third day on Wednesday. Adding to the oil price rise, the American Petroleum Institute's weekly crude oil inventory report estimated an almost 6 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week ended Feb.12. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its oil inventory data later in the day. Abdul Aziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, meanwhile, warned global oil markets against the "futility" of trying to second-guess the OPEC+ oil alliance's next crucial move. Speaking to fellow members of the OPEC+ alliance at a forum held virtually from Riyadh, he said that the world had to learn the lessons of last year's dramatic gyrations in oil prices.
Crude oil price traded with strong positivity yesterday, and it touched 62.00$ barrier by today’s open, which supports the continuation of the main bullish trend scenario, organized inside the bullish channels that appear on the chart, waiting for more rise that its next main target located at 63.35.
Therefore, we expect witnessing more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions supported by the EMA50, noting that holding above 59.75 is important to achieve the waited targets.
The expected trading range for today is between 60.50 support and 63.35 resistance.
Gold prices are rising on Thursday, and the US dollar is losing ground against its peers after a weak economic data.
Initial claims for unemployment in the United States reached 861,000 over the weekend, 775 more than the holiday forecast.
President Joe Biden O'Brien is discussing the 1. 1.9 trillion Covid 19 aid project between the White House and the US conflict.
The dollar index was down 0.4% at 19.45 GMT in major currencies after falling 90.6 points, 90.9 points higher and 90.5 points lower.
Gold's April futures rose 0.1, or 2.2 ounces, to today's close of 1 1,798.8, and a low of $ 1 closed at 6 766.6, and closed at 7 1,775 an ounce.
The price of gold resumed its negative trade after testing the level of 17, 1786.00 to maintain the bearish trend for the next period, as it reached our first waiting target at 1765.00, and we expect Let's assume that the continuation of the bearish bias as the next station will be a visit to 1740.00, considering that keeping below 1786.00 represents the first condition for achieving the proposed targets.
EUR USD. Analysis (60 Minute Chart) Tanken Sen-1.20903 Cajun-Sen-1.20669 EURUSD traded up more than 80 pips, down 1.20231 on broad-based US dollar sales. The single currency recovered despite being sold in global markets. Expectations of further stimulus from the United States and the European Central Bank are putting high pressure on the US dollar. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the week ended February 13 was 861,000, compared to the February 7 forecast. U.S. building permits rose 10 percent, while housing prices fell less than 6 percent. DXY is struggling above the 91 level, the bullish trend continuation is just above 91.60. Eurosd hits the intraday low of 1.20940 and is currently trading around 1.20918. Technical: The pair is trading just below the 200-H MA. A break above 1.21060 confirms a slight uptrend, with a jump to 1.2160 / 1.2200 / 1.2260 likely. The closest support is around 1.2080. The downgrade will take the pair down to 1.2050 / 1.2000 / 1.19550 / 1.1900. Indicators (60 minute chart) It is better to sell at rallies around the CAM indicator --ullishull1010--6060.
Crude oil forecast....
Crude oil prices fell on Friday, pushing the most active oil futures deal to a sharp low, as most oil companies in Texas disrupted supply after resuming production. Concerns have been reduced. Oil companies in Texas shut down earlier this week due to severe cold. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to a one-time low of 58.559 barrels at مارچ 1.28 $ or about 2. $ 2 for March. Closed in the barrel. WTI crude futures closed at 60 60.52 a barrel on Thursday, up ڈالر 0.62, or 1 percent, after hitting a 13-month low at the start of the session. Brent crude futures were down 1.6% or 2.02% at 62 62.64 a barrel some time ago. Traders bet on speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies could decide to increase crude production. The agency and its allies, collectively known as OPEC +, are scheduled to meet in the first week of March. According to a report released today by Baker Hughes, after an increase of twelve consecutive weeks, the number of oil rigs has decreased by 1 this week.
The US dollar continued to weaken against most of its peers on Friday, following some weak economic data released on Thursday and comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the need for additional stimulus. Yellen, who called on lawmakers to approve President Joe Biden's 1. 1.9 trillion aid package, said the proposal could help Americans get a full-time job within a year. He added that the recent signs of recovery in the US economy were not a reason to measure the relief plan. He also rejected Republican complaints about the size of the proposed bill, saying "the cost of doing too little is more than the cost of doing more." The data released on Thursday showed an increase in unemployment claims and an expected rise in import prices. In an economic release on Friday, a report released by the National Association of Realtors said current home sales rose 0.6 percent year-on-year to 6.69 million in December, up from 0.9 percent in December. Then reached a revised rate of 6.65 million. Compared to the same month a year ago, current home sales in January increased by 23.7%. Economists had expected current home sales to fall 2.2 percent to 6.61 million in December from 6.76 million in the previous month. In the European session, the dollar index, which fell to 90.18, recovered some lost ground but was just below the flat line a short time ago, down 0.24% from the previous close, at 90.37. Against the euro, the dollar weakened to a weak 1.2146 before recovering 2 1.2115, but still lagged behind the previous close of 0.17%. The flash reading of the IHS Market Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index hit a two-month high of 48.1 in February, up from 47.8 in January. After settling at 1.3975 on Thursday, the pound sterling was strong, gaining 1. 1.4007 per unit. UK private sector production contracted only modestly in February, reflecting a near stabilization in services activity amid a sustained recovery in manufacturing. The yen rose to 10 105.44 from 10 105.44. The dollar was weaker against Austria. With the AUD-USD pair at 0.7870, the dollar is down about 1.3%. After declining 4.1% in December, retail trade in Australia grew 0.6% month-on-month in January. Economists had forecast a 4.2% decline. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was slightly stronger, gaining CHF 0.8967 units. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Switzerland's industrial output fell 3.8 percent year on year, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office. The loonie strengthened against the dollar, rising from C $ 1.2669 to C $ 1.2630. Statistics from Canada show that retail sales in the country fell by 3.4% in December compared to the previous month. In November, retail sales rose 1.3 percent. Sales are expected to fall 2.5 percent in December.
Silver prices rose on Friday, as the US dollar fell against its peers, and the precious metal closed on a small weekly loss no more than a few cents.
The markets are focused on the ongoing discussions between the White House and the US Congress over President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan.
The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said during her interview with CNBC yesterday that the US economy could return to growth and full employment in 2022 if President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package is passed Congress.
The dollar index fell against a basket of major currencies by 0.3% to 90.3 points as of 21:27 GMT, after hitting a high of 90.6 points and a low of 90.1 points.
Data showed today that the US manufacturing PMI slowed to 58.5 points in January, from 59.2 points in December, beating forecasts of a drop to 58.4.
Silver March futures rose 0.7% or 18 cents, and closed at $27.254 an ounce, with today's high at $27.710 and the low at $26.105 .
Silver price hovers around 27.50 level and keeps its stability below it, accompanied by witnessing negative signals through stochastic, which forms negative motive that we are waiting to push the price to resume the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, which targets 26.00 followed by 25.50 levels mainly.
On the other hand, we should note that breaching 27.50 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish track again.
Good morning friends how are you all I hope everyone is fine . I am updating my trading journal with the analysis of silver. Silver was moved in bullish in the American session yesterday and keep stability above 27.
Silver price shows tight trades since morning, and still stable below 27.50, which keeps te bearish trend scenario valid for today, which depends on the price stability below the mentioned level, reminding you that our waited targets begin at 26.00 and extend to 25.50.
The expected trading range for today is between 26.60 support and 27.90 resistance
AUD / USD Chart -
Trading View AUD / USD was trading 0.09% higher at 0.7921 on 0:40 0 GMT, after closing 0.61% higher in the previous session. The decline in Australian dollar exports and Moody's Victoria rating have to be downgraded from AA1. Rising commodity prices keep the pair together. AUD / USD is extending the winning streak for the 4th straight week. Technical studies show that the key is ready for reversal. The pair trades above the cloud and key moving averages on the weekly charts. The speed is fast and the fluctuations increase and increase. On the monthly chart, the price action has risen above the 110-month EMA and is on the verge of a breakout above the monthly cloud. New house prices rose 0.28 percent in December in 70 major Chinese cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) early Tuesday. "China's domestic economy is improving steadily, creating the conditions for normalization of monetary policy in 2021." Note to Bloomberg analysts. Excessive buying pressure could lead to a slight pullback in this pair. But the upgrade is maintained as long as the prices do not exceed 110 months EMA. Take advantage at 0.8254 up to 200 months MA.
Crude oil analysis....
On Tuesday, crude oil prices fell slightly, retreating after gaining a huge advantage in the previous session. Traders have weighed on supply positions amid reports that it could take at least two weeks for oil production in South America to slow to 2 million a day from crude output due to deep freezing. Can start more than a barrel. The oil market is also looking forward to the next meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for April fell 0.0 0.03 to close at 61 61.67 a barrel, hitting a session high of 63 63.00 a barrel. Goldman Sachs said in a report that oil consumption would return to pre-virus levels by the end of July, while major producers' production is likely to remain "extremely volatile" until rising prices. Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude to reach 70 70 a barrel in the third quarter, with "very good market indicators" including the possibility of increasing demand. The US Petroleum Institute's (API) and Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly crude inventory data will be compiled today and tomorrow morning, respectively.
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