Good morning. I am updating my trading journal with the analysis of silver.Silver still has some way to go before bottoming. It has not rallied despite a lower US Dollar Index (gold and miners did not rally either) and a higher stock market. Silver has bright days ahead, but not until it passes this most recent downward shift in trend. And please remember, gold’s more volatile little brother is more prone to sudden price swings, as traders like to pick up some cheap silver after a pullback. What does this imply? Not much, actually. It means that the white metal is continuing to trade sideways after breaking below the rising, medium-term support line in mid-September.
Silver shrugged off the rally in the general stock market and the decline in the USD Index – it could have rallied on any of the above, and instead it just kept consolidating.
Consequently, silver seems to be preparing for a bigger mover lower.Silver is more or less at the level just before it broke, gold is below it, and mining stocks are also below it – the most out of the entire . So, it is not only the case that silver was strong and miners were weak in the last several days – it’s been the case over the past few months as well. The implications are bearish.
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar firmed up against some of its peers, rebounding from recent losses. The market was also reacting to the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell told the members that the bank is likely to maintain ultra-easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future. The dollar index rallied to 90.26, recovering from a low of 89.94, before easing to 90.10, netting a gain of 0.1%. Gold futures for April ended up $2.50 or about 0.1% at $1,805.90 an ounce. Silver futures for March ended lower by $0.397 at $27.688 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $4.1785 per pound, gaining $0.0375 for the session. Powell's prepared remarks today largely mirrored recent assessments, indicating interest rates will remain at near-zero levels and the Fed will continue its asset purchases at the current rate until "substantial further progress" has been made toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability. "The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved," Powell said. The Fed chief said annual inflation remains below the central bank's 2% target and reiterated monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2% for "some time." Powell stressed that the Fed remains committed to using its full range of tools to support the economy and to help ensure the recovery will be as robust as possible. Meanwhile, a report released by the Conference Board today showed consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved more than expected in the month of February. The report said the CB's consumer confidence index rose to 91.3 in February from a downwardly revised 88.9 in January. Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to inch up to 90.0 from the 89.3 originally reported for the previous month.
Crude oil analysis....
Crude oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday after fears of a sharp rise in refiner activity in Texas over the possible effects of last week's cold snap, surpassing official figures. The oil market also blocked a report that said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies, collectively known as OPEC +, is likely to increase to 500,000 barrels a day from April. Will consider The OPEC + meeting is scheduled for next week. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for April ended at 1.55 or about 2.5 percent barrel at 63 63.22 a barrel, the largest population in early January 2020. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a statement released this morning that US crude reserves had increased by 1.3 million barrels. Saturday ended February 19, beating expectations for a reduction of about 5 million barrels. EIA data also said that last week's supply of petrol did not change much, while the stockpile fell by about 5 million barrels a week. The US Petroleum Institute's report, released late Tuesday, said crude oil prices rose 1.026 million barrels last week, compared to an estimated 5.2 million barrels in the lottery.
USD index analysis......
The US dollar remained weak for most of the day until midday on Thursday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating that interest rates would remain near zero in the near future. However, the currency gained some support in the middle of the afternoon and showed mixed performance against other major currencies. A report released by the Department of Labor states that the initial unemployment claim for the week ended February 20 was 730,000, down 111,000 from last week's revised level of 841,000. ۔ New orders for US-made durable goods rose more than expected in January, up 3.4 percent from a highly revised 1.2 percent increase in December, according to a Commerce Department report. Revised figures released by the Commerce Department show that US GDP grew 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to a 4.0 percent increase in the previous quarter. The dollar index, which slipped to 89.68, later rose sharply to 90.29, and was last seen at 90.24, up 0.07% from the previous close. Against the euro, the dollar was slightly weaker at 1.2176, despite the unit recovering from 1.2243. The European Commission's survey found that eurozone economic confidence hit a one-year high in February on rising sentiment among industry, services and consumers, easing stricter restrictions on code 19 epidemics Is reflected. The economic sentiment index rose more than expected to 93.4, up from 91.5 in the previous month. The score was predicted to be 92 in February. The pound sterled against the greenback, gaining 1. 1.4010 per unit, up from the previous close of 4 1.4141. In the three months to February, business optimism between US business and professional services has improved, while consumer sentiment has declined. This was revealed by the Confederation of British Industry's quarterly service sector survey. The yen traded up 106.24, up about 0.4 percent. AUD-USD was at 0.7878, giving the dollar a gain of about 1.1%. The Swiss franc flew from 0.9065 to 0.9051, while the loonie fell to 1.2606, dropping about 0.75.
Silver prices slumped on Thursday, after the release of upbeat economic data in the US, amid pressure from the rising US Treasury yield, and while the dollar fell against its peers.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed during his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee that employment and inflation rates are still far from the Fed's goals.
The initial unemployment claims in the US fell to 730,000 last week, better than forecasts of 845,000.
The US Durable Goods Orders reading rose 3.4% in January, the largest monthly spike in 6 month, and better than forecasts of 0.9%.
The dollar index fell against a basket of currencies by 0.4% to 89.8 points as of 21:12 GMT, after it hit a high of 90.1 points and a low of 89.6 points.
Silver May futures fell 0.9% or 24 cents, and the metal closed at $27.685 an ounce, with today’s high at $28.345, and the low at $27.345
The price of silver traded with a clear negative to move away from the intra-day bullish channel's broken support, which supports expectations of a bearish trend in the coming sessions, from 26.50 to 25.50. Level, remind you that it is important to keep below 27.55 to achieve these goals.
Today's expected trading range is between 26.40 support and 27.80 resistance.
Gold futures fell on Friday, with losses in the fourth straight session weighed on rising US Treasury yields. After hitting a 52-week high on Thursday, yields on the 10-year Treasury note fell slightly today, still a key factor that helped boost demand for the safe-haven metal. ۔ The much-anticipated US economic data released overnight has also raised concerns that the Fed may withdraw stimulus sooner than expected. Meanwhile, there is speculation that US President Joe Biden's financial spending package will not be as large as the proposed 1. 1.9 trillion. The dollar also rallied on gold prices. The dollar index rose more than 0.8 percent to 90.92. It was last seen hovering around 90.80, up 0.74% from Thursday. April gold futures fell ڈالر 46.60, or about 2.6 percent, to close at 7 1,728.80 an ounce, the lowest level in eight months. Gold futures fell more than 6.5 percent in February. Silver futures for May fell 1.245 by ڈالر 26,440 an ounce, while copper futures for May fell کمی 0.1710 to $ 4.0925 an ounce. The Commerce Department said personal income rose 10 percent in January after a 0.6 percent increase in December. Economists had expected a 9.5% increase in personal income. The report also saw a significant drop in personal spending, rising 2.4 percent in January from a revised 0.4 percent in December. MNI Indicators released a report on Friday showing the expected slowdown in growth in business activity in the Chicago area in February. Chicago's business barometer of MNI indicators fell to 59.5 in February, the report said.
USD index analysis.....
The US dollar rallied against its peers on Friday as economic data showed a significant increase in the chances of the Federal Reserve withdrawing stimulus sooner than expected. Meanwhile, there is speculation that US President Joe Biden's financial spending package will not be as large as the proposed 9 1.9 trillion. The Commerce Department said personal income rose 10 percent in January after a 0.6 percent increase in December. Economists had expected a 9.5% increase in personal income. The report also saw a significant drop in personal spending, rising 2.4 percent in January from a revised 0.4 percent in December. MNI Indicators released a report on Friday showing the expected slowdown in growth in business activity in the Chicago area in February. Chicago's business barometer of MNI indicators fell to 59.5 in February, the report said. The dollar index rose nearly 1 to 90.97. Against the euro, the dollar strengthened more than 0.8% to 1.2074. The pound sterling weakened against the dollar, gaining 1.3924 per unit, down 0.6 percent from Thursday's close. The yen fell from 6 106.25 to 6 106.56. According to data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, industrial production in Japan in January was seasonally adjusted by 4.2% month-on-month. Retail sales in Japan were seasonally adjusted 0.5% month-on-month in January, to 12.097 trillion yen. Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo area of Japan were down 0.3% year-on-year in February, after declining 0.5% in January. Austria was weak against the OCI / USD 0.7702, falling from 0.7803 to less than 0.79 Swiss francs, down 0.4% from 7 0.7948. Statistics from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs show that Switzerland's economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter due to the heavy weight of restrictions on the coronavirus epidemic in the service sector. Gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent, compared to the 7.6 percent expansion shown in the third quarter. GDP growth was forecast at 0.1%. Loni fell more than 1% from 1.2603 to 1.2738. Statistics Canada data show that Canada's industrial product price index rose 2-month-on-month in January, followed by 1.7% in December. Earlier in January, the index had risen 8.8 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, Canada's raw material price index rose 5.7 percent last month, after rising 3.5 percent in December 2020.
Crude Oil analysis......
Oil prices fell on Friday, as the US dollar rose against peers, amid risk aversion.
The US dollar is being lifted by the rising US Treasury yields, which weighs down on the prices of dollar-denominated commodities.
The US Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude inventories rose 1.3 million barrels to 463 million barrels during the past week, worse than forecasts of a drop by 6 million barrels.
The dollar index rose against a basket of currencies by 0.4% to 90.5 points as of 16:15 GMT, after it hit a high of 90.7 points and a low of 90.1 points.
As of 17:19 GMT, WTI crude March futures fell 1.5% to $62.5 a barrel, after hitting a day high of $63.5 and a low of $61.7.
Brent April futures fell 0.9% to $66.2 a barrel, after hitting a high of $66.9 and a low of $65.7.
Crude oil price broke 62.40 again and settles below it now, to open the way to turn to decline on the intraday basis, to head towards visiting 61.10 before turning back to rise again, noting that breaching 62.95 and holding above it will reactivate the bullish trend scenario and stop the current negative pressure.
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