Eva4ever's Trading Journal

[Eva4ever]

USD/CAD BREAKOUT ANALYSIS:

Greetings to all fellow members of this esteemed forum. It's a new day and another opportunity to make money. As traders, we know that with every market move, someone out there is making good money and so we should always strive to be on the winning side because forex trading is a zero-sum game!


USDCAD YESTERDAY H1 CHART:


Mates, the market moved just like I expected for the Canadian Dollar yesterday which made quite a bullish spike when the Bank of Canada released it's monetary statement report and overnight rate. This caused the USDCAD to go lower and to touch the support line around 1.2630 and even break this support to create a new low for the year at 1.2605.

USDCAD CURRENT H1 CHART


Now, price has made a retest of the broken support and has bounced from this area which indicates that support has turned to resistance. With this bearish bounce, I expect this pair to drop further to 1.2520 zone which is expected to hold as new support for the pair.

EUR/GBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS/FORECAST:





Meanwhile, my open positions in EURGBP has run into a bigger loss due to the fact that this pair broke below the strong daily support at 0.8860 yesterday. I scaled out of this positions by closing one position of 0.4 with $-27 while I left the other position open with floating loss of -$30 now. I left this position to run because I observed that after the break out, there was a strong bullish bounce which signaled that the breakout might be a false breakout.
However, price is still testing the support zone and currently trading at 0.8855 and so I'll be watching this pair closely and if price makes a new low today, I will cut my losses and join the sell trend to trade the bearish breakout or what do you guys think?

Thank you all for your consistent feedback to this journal and wish you a day filled with green pips.

[Eva4ever]

Greetings to everyone. Today is Friday the last working day of the week and the market is probably going to be less volatile today, So guys how was your trading this week?

EUR/GBP HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS.

I am still holding on to my EURGBP trades guys. Despite the apparent breakout of support in this pair, I have not closed and it is not because of greed but because of strong technical signals that I spotted which points to a strong upcoming bullish move that I will share with you all shortly.

BULLISH CRAB PATTERN ON H1:



The bullish crab pattern is a strong reversal pattern and this has popped up on smaller and higher timeframe which makes me to hold this trade and expect a bullish reversal.

On H1 chart price you can see the yellow colored pattern on my chart. Price has formed a B point at 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg (at 0.8886) and the D point which is the final confirmation point is a 161.8 Fibonacci extension of the XA leg (at 0.8829).

BULLISH CRAB PATTERN ON H4:



On the H4 chart, you can see the blue coloured bullish crab pattern on my chart. This pattern has B point Fibonacci retracement of 61.8 (at 0.8996) and the D completion point of 161.8 Fibonacci extension is at (0.8855).
These patterns present a buy zone between 0.8855 - 0.8829 level which gives a 26pips range.

Also, my floating loss of over $30 yesterday has reduced to just $7 loss (see screenshot below) and I am ready to add more buy positions to this trade.



Trading Recommendations:

The Bullish crab pattern on the H1 timeframe has a take profit target at just 0.8915 and so is small and very short term which makes me to target the take profit of the larger timeframe H4 bullish crab pattern which is at 0.9030 level which is 140pips target.

Thank you all for your time and do comment your opinions on this EURGBP pair.

[Eva4ever]

WEEKEND UPDATE
Greetings to everyone. I have been away from the forum for some time due to other assignments but I'm back again and I'm hoping this time, I will be able to spend a good time here and make a meaningful impact through my journal.

The First currency pair on my analysis list today is the EURUSD. This pair is no doubt the most traded currency pair in the forex market and so I hope a lot of traders can benefit from this analysis. I also look forward to learning a thing or two and fresh insights from the comments and feedback I'll get from you all.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

The EURUSD pair dropped massively yesterday (Friday) as the US dollar gained across the market for two days in a row with very high volatility. This drop in the EURUSD price has not changed the trend of this pair in my opinion as I still see this pair in a strong uptrend. The fall of this pair is just a retracement which is normal and was very much anticipated.

There are two scenarios that I will be considering in this pair and this will help us to know what to do, depending on how the market moves next week. These scenarios are;

1. Bullish bounce from support trendline

2. Bearish breakout of the support trendline.

EURUSD BULLISH BOUNCE



EURUSD is now touching the ascending trendline on the H4 chart and this trendline support area at 1.2060 is an important area of interest for this currency pair as past data shows that price has found support several times around this level.
I expect this pair to make a bounce off this support trendline and move higher to hit the 1.2180 level as its first target and then eventually make a new weekly high at 1.2280 which is approximately 200 pips from the current market price.

EURUSD BEARISH BREAKOUT



On the other hand, if the price can break this ascending trendline support zone around the 1.2060 zone, it would be a strong sign that bears are still present and are aiming to push the price down to the previous swing low at 1.1955.
In the event of a breakout, I would recommend that traders wait for a retest of this support zone and trendline (which will now hold as resistance), and then sell on the first signs of a bounce downwards with a target of roughly 100pips at 1.1955. See my chart below for a better understanding of this action.

I sincerely thank you all for your support to this journal even during my inconsistency and your feedback is always appreciated. Enjoy your weekend, cheers!

[Eva4ever]

HAPPY WEEKEND
Hello and greetings to everyone. Happy Sunday guys. Today is the last resting day before the market opens and traders get back on to the trading in the ever-volatile Forex market. Traders must use this time to refresh themselves and at the same time make analyses that will help as a trading guide in the following week.

GBPUSD H4 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :


After rallying for most of the month of February, the GBPUSD currency pair made a dive of 350 pips lower during the last two trading days of the month and this drop in price of this pair gave swing traders good profits.

The price drop is a retracement of the strong uptrend and not a reversal move as some traders are already calling it. If you take a look at the daily and 4-hour chart of this pair, you will see that price is being supported by a rising trendline that has been holding in place since the month of September 2020.

Judging from the strong bearish momentum witnessed last week, I expect that GBPUSD pairs are aiming to push price lower to retest this trendline around 1.3650 level.
The current price of GBPUSD is at 1.3926 and this means that price is still expected to drop another 280pips before slowing down and finding support.

GBPUSD D1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


On the daily chart, the price has made a strong bearish rejection from the previous swing high resistance area around 1.4230 level. Although the price did not get to the 1.4370 high, I think this drop is solid enough for an extended correction lower to the 1.3650 level. My chart below will highlight important support and resistance areas which will give traders good insights on levels to watch even on smaller timeframes. This pair was massively overbought and price is going to make a deeper correction to acceptable levels.

RECOMMENDATION:
I recommend selling the GBPUSD currency pair this week after a slight pullback and traders can target hundreds of pips with a trailing stop put in place after the price moves the first 100 pips.
GBPUSD SELL - 1.3950
TP1 - 1.3800
TP2 - 1.3650

Thank you all for your contributions to this journal and do enjoy your weekend. Cheers!

[Eva4ever]

MONDAY UPDATE
Greetings awesome traders. It's Monday and the forex market is open for traders to engage in and make money. Remember that with every market move, there's an opportunity for traders to make a profit and what we have to do is to try to always be on the right side of the trade with good money management. I wish everyone green pips.

So guys, over the weekend, I shared an analysis on two currency pairs which are the EURUSD and the GBPUSD and I want to remind us all that those analyses still stand and I look forward to entering positions based on that and sharing it with everyone.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :
Today, I'm going to share my analysis of the USDJPY currency pair. This pair has been moving in an ascending channel and this market pattern can be very profitable if traded with good skill and management.



Observing the chart above, the price is fast approaching the resistance line of this channel which aligns with the 106.85 mark. I expect the price to reject this resistance and make a bearish bounce off this level and head back to the support line of the channel at 105.70 which is a 100 pips drop in the price of this pair.

USDJPY D1 CHART:


Switching to a larger timeframe, you can still observe a strong resistance area around this 106.85 - 107.00 level which further confirms the resistance line on the ascending channel on H4.
My idea is to wait for the price of this pair to rally to the 106.85- 107.00 resistance level and then watch for a bearish rejection of this level before taking a short position in this pair.

However, if the price makes a breakout of this resistance level, traders should observe for a retest and another bounce from this resistance and if resistance turns into support, traders can abandon the selling idea and join the strong uptrend, but if the price crosses below the resistance and trades within the channel again, the breakout can be considered as a false breakout and traders can go on with selling to trade the retracement swing depending on price action.

RECOMMENDATION:
USDJPY is still in an uptrend but with every trend, there are up and down moves in form of a retracement or correction and I expect this pair to make a bearish correction swing soon. So I'm looking to sell this pair at:
USDJPY SELL - 106.85
TP - 105.70
SL - 107.10

Thank you all for your active participation in this forum and constant visitation of this journal. Have a nice week. Cheers!

[Eva4ever]

Tuesday 2nd March Update

Hello and greetings to all wonderful traders. How is your trading so far? Today is Tuesday and I expect to see more volatility in the markets than yesterday, Monday. Already, the price is continuing its move of last week after a pullback yesterday as we can see that the US dollar is strengthening once again.

EURUSD BEARISH BREAKOUT.

Guys, during the weekend I shared two scenarios of the movement of EURUSD and it appears that the market has favored the bearish breakout of the ascending trendline on the H4 chart of this currency pair. Take a look at the chart I posted regarding this scenario below:


Although the price did not make a complete retest of the broken support, the bearish momentum is quite strong and I expect the price to drop to the next support level at 1.1955 which is the target for bears in this pair. With this bearish breakout, traders can join in the downside swing and catch about 60 more pips before the price touches strong support. As you can see in my chart below, I already have some short positions opened in this currency pair:


If the price of EURUSD can break below 1.1955 support, this is a strong indication of a reversal in trend, and traders should pay very close attention to price action and be ready for a bearish move to 1.1800 psychological area of interest which has acted as resistance and support several times in the past.

EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

On the fundamental side, there is no high impact news for the Euro or the dollar today and this suggests that there will be no sudden change in the direction of price unless a piece of breaking news hits the market and so traders can have more confidence in trading this pair unlike when there is news event lined up in the market. This doesn't mean that traders should neglect good money management as take profit and stop loss levels must still be set in place.

RECOMMENDATION:

Based on the obvious bearish breakout of the ascending support line on the EURUSD chart and the bearish momentum present, I recommend selling this pair with a target of at least 50pips. Trade details as follow:
EURUSD SELL - 1.2010
TP - 1.1955
SL - 1.2040

Thank you all for your feedback and comments which is helping this journal grow. I really appreciate it all. Cheers!.

[Eva4ever]

JOURNAL UPDATE MARCH 3RD

Hello and greetings to everyone. It's mid-week and the US dollar is weakening again across the market as we experienced a sharp turn in price yesterday. I hope we can all make a profit from the market today and I wish everyone green pips.

EURUSD SELL TRADE UPDATE:

So guys, my EURUSD Short position trade of yesterday turned from profit to loss after the EURUSD made a spike upwards and drifted above the 1.2040 Stop loss mark. This trade has hit the Stop loss level and now I think traders should wait and observe price action before making any moves.

GBPUSD HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN:

My analysis for today is on the GBPUSD pair. This pair is expected to make a bearish drop to 1.3600 level in the long term move and I have spotted a pattern that will help confirm the bearish drop once it starts.

On the H4 chart of the GBPUSD currency pair, the price is forming a head and shoulder pattern. This pattern is a reversal pattern and a sign that the uptrend is about to reverse or there is going to be a strong swing in the opposite direction of the trend.



The shoulder of this pattern is at 1.3950 and the head is at 1.4230 level. The price is currently forming the second shoulder around 1.3970 where price action is already showing signs of a bearish rejection bounce. If this pair makes a drop from this level and the price can break below the neckline support around 1.3850, then the bearish move is going to be confirmed.
Traders should note that it is only when the price falls below the neckline that the head and shoulders pattern is completed and valid for trade.

The profit target for a head and shoulder pattern is usually the number of pips of the height of the pattern and in this case, it is about 400 pips. However, since we have a rising trendline which is expected to hold as a support line for this pair on the H4 chart, we can target at least 200 pips which is the distance of the breakout from neckline support to the trendline on the H4 chart.



RECOMMENDATION:
This technical analysis of the GBPUSD pair points to a bearish short term move and so I recommend selling this pair with trade parameters as follows:
GBPUSD SELL - 1.3850
TP - 1.3650
SL - 1.4000

Thank you all for your contributions and response to my journal updates. Have a wonderful day in the market today. Cheers!

[Eva4ever]

JOURNAL UPDATE MARCH 4TH

Hello and greetings to every great trader. I hope everyone is having a good time trading the forex market this week? Today is Thursday which is usually the busiest day in the forex market so I will be expecting good volatility today. However, tomorrow is scheduled for the release of the US Non-farm Payroll (NFP) and so the market can remain quiet until then as most traders will be waiting for this high-impact news to be released before taking their positions in the market.

EURUSD Former Support line now Holding as resistance



After hitting my stop loss level, it appears that the EURUSD pair is still respecting the previous support trendline on H4, as the price is staying below it as resistance now. On Wednesday, we saw how price hit this support line and immediately made a bearish rejection which suggests that the breakout and retest scenario which I analyzed here: https://forum.mt5.com/showthread.php...1#post15185539 might still be valid for this pair. What do you guys think about the movement of EURUSD? I would appreciate comments on this, thanks a lot.

USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

I have a fresh analysis for the week and this is on the USDCAD currency pair.
I have observed this pair on the H4 chart and I noticed the descending trendline which has been holding as a resistance line since the month of November 2020.

FALLING TRENDLINE RESISTANCE


The price of this currency pair recently (on Monday) made another bearish rejection of this trendline and is dipping lower. With this fresh bearish momentum, I expect that the bears will make a run for the previous swing low and push the price to 1.2470 level.
If price can make the drop to this point, it would be a 170 pips drop from the current market price and that is quite a good catch for any trader that is willing to join the trend now.


RECOMMENDATION:
Based on the technical analysis and chart patterns observed on the 4-hour chart of the USDCAD pair, I am bearish on this pair and recommend traders to sell this pair with trade parameters as follows:
USDCAD SELL - 1.2640
TP 1 - 1.2540
TP 2 - 1.2470
SL - 1.2700

Many thanks to you all for always visiting and contributing to the growth of this journal. I appreciate it and do have a profit-filled day in the forex market today. Cheers!

[Eva4ever]

JOURNAL UPDATE MARCH 5TH

Hello and greetings to you all. This is the last trading day of the week and there is major news for the US dollar which is going to provide huge volatility in the market and I hope everyone can take good advantage of this move.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
It is important to acknowledge the fundamentals when trading today and as I have always said, traders should practice trading with both technical and fundamental which is called hybrid trading as this will give the best view of the market. So, the Non-farm Payroll, average hourly earnings, and unemployment data are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT.
Analyzing the forecast of these events, only the NFP is expected to come out higher than the previous number with an expected increase in jobs targeted at 197,000 for the month of February. If truly the data comes out as expected, the USD is likely to gain strength across the market. However, any disappointment in any of these data releases; that is if any prints red (less than expected) the USD will have a negative reaction in the market and will weaken.

EURUSD TRADE FINALLY HITS TARGET:
I am happy to share with you guys the good news about the EURUSD currency pair. Before the market opened for the week, I posted a breakout and retest scenario on the H4 chart of this pair, and the price has moved exactly in that manner during the course of the week and has hit the target at 1.1955 level which is the previous swing low.
I opened short positions in this pair on Tuesday which hit Stop loss before the price hit the former support trendline which now holds as resistance.
See screenshots of my analysis of EURUSD until the price hit the target below :
EURUSD FEB 27th Chart:


EURUSD March 4th chart:


EURUSD March 5th Chart:


USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

I have my eyes on the USDJPY pair to sell in case the US dollar weakens when the high-impact news hits the market.
USDJPY is currently trading at daily highs at the 108.16 level. This is a crucial resistance level and if the NFP disappoints, the price will drop like a rock.



On the H4 chart, the price has broken out of the ascending channel but the price is likely to fall back to 107.15 level in a bid to make a retest of this channel resistance line which might hold as support now.



RECOMMENDATION:
It is important to note that my idea to sell USDJPY is only for swing traders and not for trend traders and it is only valid in the instance of the US dollar weakening. The trade parameters are as follows:
USDJPY SELL - 108.20
TP - 107.15
SL - 108.60

NOTE: Trading during high-impact news is very risky and so traders should wait until the actual news is out and the direction of the price is confirmed before entering any position.

Thank you all for your contributions and do have a day filled with profits. Cheers!

[Eva4ever]

WEEKEND UPDATE MARCH 6TH
Hello and greetings to everyone. I had a good time trading in the forex market this week and I hope that everyone had the same and made profits or at least, I hope everyone was able to manage losses significantly.

Review of the NFP Result:
So guys, the US Non-farm Payroll of yesterday came out green with a greater than expected increase in jobs for the month of February. The unemployment rate also fell from 6.3% to 6.2% which is a good sign that the United States economy is recovering. The average hourly earnings remained the same at 0.2% just as was expected. In general, the data releases were very good for the US dollar and this caused an immediate spike for the USD across the market.


However, if one were to observe the market closely, one will find that the USD had already begun to strengthen from the start of Friday, even before the release of the NFP and this indicates that the NFP results were already priced in.

Since this hawkish data was already priced into the US dollar price in the market, the market did not experience any follow-through buying of the dollar after the initial spike. Rather, the price maintained its level across the board and some currencies like the GBP even gained against the dollar and went up after the news.

AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Guys, I have a fresh analysis on the AUDUSD currency pair that I want traders to pay attention to when the market opens next week.
AUDUSD has dropped massively from last week's highs around 0.8000 level. Despite this drop of approximately 400 pips to yesterday's low at 0.7623, this pair is still in an uptrend and right now I expect the price to consolidate for a while before the uptrend resumes again.


From my analysis, The AUDUSD is going to move in a consolidation sideways channel with the channel resistance at 0.7820 and the channel's support at 0.7590 level. The price of this pair rejected the 0.7623 level yesterday and moved up to close at 0.7686.
I expect this pair to retest the support level of this channel around 0.7590 and for the price to make a bullish bounce from this area again and for bulls to reenter and aim for the top of the channel.

However, if bulls can push the price higher above the midway point of the channel at 0.7700 level, then traders can enter the buy position and target the 0.7820 resistance area without waiting for a retest of the bottom of the channel.

RECOMMENDATION:
I favor a retest of the bottom level of the channel before a bounce, so I would encourage traders to wait for this retest of 0.7600 - 0.7590 or a breakout above 0.7700 before buying this currency pair next week.

Thank you mates for your contributions and participation in this forum as I learn every day from different journals here. Have a lovely weekend, cheers!