Update 3141 @ 18th February,2021 @ 07:00 AM (GMT +5)
Greetings and introduction.
Forecast of EURUSD.
Forecast of GBPUSD.
Greetings and introduction.
Good morning everyone.
At the same time, the Treasury's report on foreign capital inflows in December showed a general rise in US securities. The strongest inflow to the US stock market does not weaken, and some downward pullback on treasuries is fully compensated by the inflow to the US government agency bonds, that is, to the authorized federal agencies, which just acts as a second-plan borrower and their participation does not formally increase the level of public debt. In general, it should be noted that foreign investors are experiencing an interest growth in US securities, which creates additional demand for the dollar.So far, traders assumed that the release of the Fed's minutes of their last meeting will not give any surprises. The growth of oil may be slightly slowed down by Saudi Arabia's plans to increase production, but the vaccination rate against COVID-19 will continue to be the primary factor. Demand is mainly for risky assets, while the bullish mood is for the dollar.
The EURUSD pair broke 1.2064 level strongly and attempts to hold below it, which hints the price head to turn to decline and achieve more bearish correction, on its way to visit 1.1976 as a next negative target, noting that closing today below 1.2064 will confirm the continuation of the decline in the upcoming sessions.
A net break of EUR/USD below 1.2081 indicated the presence of a minor peak. The next support will come into play at 1.2019, and the more important one at 1.1945-1.1952. This is where the bears should be. Otherwise, the pair expects a more serious drawdown and test of 1.1800, and possibly 1.1695," said strategists at Credit Suisse.
"The nearest resistance is located at 1.2098. Downside risks will persist as long as the 1.2125-1.2128 area remains unbroken. Above it, the 55-day moving average around 1.2152 will come into play, and a break above 1.2190 will confirm the resumption of the underlying bullish trend.
1) Long positions have lost their relevance, as the price settled below the rising trend line. And so novice traders should not trade bullish right now. Moreover, a new upward trend is unlikely to form tomorrow, therefore, most likely, buy orders will not have to be considered on Thursday.
2) Trading bearish is currently relevant. But after a sufficiently strong downward movement, at least a small upward correction is required, which will allow the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level and create a new sell signal. Also, an upward pullback can make it possible to form a downward trend line or channel, which will also help in trading. On a new sell signal, you are advised to open short positions while aiming for 1.2076 and 1.2048. Since we do not know how strong the correction will be, the maximum Take Profit should be 40-50 points.
The GBPUSD pair settles at the intraday bullish channelís support line, and stochastic continues to approach the oversold areas, while the EMA50 provides positive support to the price.
Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by the price stability above 1.3860, reminding you that our next targets begin at 1.3965 followed by 1.4070.Although yesterday we analyzed the fact that this buy signal was not worth working out, since the candlestick on which it formed was more than 50 points. After such a strong movement for about an hour, it is difficult to count, especially in the evening, just moving in the same direction. The next signal was a sell signal, which was created when the trend line was broken. Traders could enter the market at a price of 1.3869, and the target was the support level of 1.3819, to which the price has not yet reached.
1) Long positions have lost their relevance, since the price still crossed the trend line. So now beginners need to wait for a new upward trend or the end of the new downward trend and only after that should you look for new opportunities to open long positions.
2) Novice traders are now advised to consider short positions, as a new downward trend has formed. The last sell signal has not yet been canceled, so it can be left open with an initial target of 1.3819. You can also close it when the MACD indicator turns up or leave it open and set Stop Loss to break even.