noor616 trading journal

[noor616]

Update 3141 @ 18th February,2021 @ 07:00 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings and introduction.
Forecast of EURUSD.
Forecast of GBPUSD.


Greetings and introduction.
Good morning everyone.
At the same time, the Treasury's report on foreign capital inflows in December showed a general rise in US securities. The strongest inflow to the US stock market does not weaken, and some downward pullback on treasuries is fully compensated by the inflow to the US government agency bonds, that is, to the authorized federal agencies, which just acts as a second-plan borrower and their participation does not formally increase the level of public debt. In general, it should be noted that foreign investors are experiencing an interest growth in US securities, which creates additional demand for the dollar.So far, traders assumed that the release of the Fed's minutes of their last meeting will not give any surprises. The growth of oil may be slightly slowed down by Saudi Arabia's plans to increase production, but the vaccination rate against COVID-19 will continue to be the primary factor. Demand is mainly for risky assets, while the bullish mood is for the dollar.


EURUSD Analysis.
The EURUSD pair broke 1.2064 level strongly and attempts to hold below it, which hints the price head to turn to decline and achieve more bearish correction, on its way to visit 1.1976 as a next negative target, noting that closing today below 1.2064 will confirm the continuation of the decline in the upcoming sessions.

A net break of EUR/USD below 1.2081 indicated the presence of a minor peak. The next support will come into play at 1.2019, and the more important one at 1.1945-1.1952. This is where the bears should be. Otherwise, the pair expects a more serious drawdown and test of 1.1800, and possibly 1.1695," said strategists at Credit Suisse.

"The nearest resistance is located at 1.2098. Downside risks will persist as long as the 1.2125-1.2128 area remains unbroken. Above it, the 55-day moving average around 1.2152 will come into play, and a break above 1.2190 will confirm the resumption of the underlying bullish trend.

Trading suggestions.
1) Long positions have lost their relevance, as the price settled below the rising trend line. And so novice traders should not trade bullish right now. Moreover, a new upward trend is unlikely to form tomorrow, therefore, most likely, buy orders will not have to be considered on Thursday.

2) Trading bearish is currently relevant. But after a sufficiently strong downward movement, at least a small upward correction is required, which will allow the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level and create a new sell signal. Also, an upward pullback can make it possible to form a downward trend line or channel, which will also help in trading. On a new sell signal, you are advised to open short positions while aiming for 1.2076 and 1.2048. Since we do not know how strong the correction will be, the maximum Take Profit should be 40-50 points.


GBPUSD Analysis.
The GBPUSD pair settles at the intraday bullish channel’s support line, and stochastic continues to approach the oversold areas, while the EMA50 provides positive support to the price.
Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by the price stability above 1.3860, reminding you that our next targets begin at 1.3965 followed by 1.4070.Although yesterday we analyzed the fact that this buy signal was not worth working out, since the candlestick on which it formed was more than 50 points. After such a strong movement for about an hour, it is difficult to count, especially in the evening, just moving in the same direction. The next signal was a sell signal, which was created when the trend line was broken. Traders could enter the market at a price of 1.3869, and the target was the support level of 1.3819, to which the price has not yet reached.

Trading suggestions.
1) Long positions have lost their relevance, since the price still crossed the trend line. So now beginners need to wait for a new upward trend or the end of the new downward trend and only after that should you look for new opportunities to open long positions.

2) Novice traders are now advised to consider short positions, as a new downward trend has formed. The last sell signal has not yet been canceled, so it can be left open with an initial target of 1.3819. You can also close it when the MACD indicator turns up or leave it open and set Stop Loss to break even.

[noor616]

Update 3142 @ 18th February,2021 @ 04:10 PM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings.
Forecast of USDJPY.
Forecast of NZDJPY.


Greetings.
Good evening everyone.



Forecast of USDJPY.
The USDJPY pair shows negative trades after facing solid barrier formed by the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, to move below 106.00 now, noticing that stochastic got rid of its negative momentum to show clear oversold signals, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that targets 106.44 mainly.
The EMA50 supports the positive overview, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 105.65.
The expected trading range for today is between 105.40 support and 106.50 resistance.
USDJPY is facing bullish pressure as it took support from the key support level, in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support. Prices are likely to increase to 1st resistance at 127% Fibonacci retracement and 78% fib extension.

Trading Recommendation.

Entry: 105.72

Reason for Entry: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support

Take Profit: 106.17

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing high

Stop Loss: 105.29

NZDJPY Forecast.
Price is facing bearish pressure as it holds below both the descending trend line resistance and Ichimoku cloud, in line with our bearish bias. We could potentially see a further downside as price is testing our 1st resistance at 76.157, in line with our horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. A break below our downside confirmation level at 75.880 could provide the bearish acceleration to our first support target. RSI is showing a bearish breakout as well, in line with our bearish bias.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 76.157

Reason for Entry:

horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 75.471

Reason for Take Profit:

horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 76.395

[noor616]

Update 3143 @ 19th February,2021 @ 01:50 PM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings and Introduction .
Forecast of GBPNZD.
Forecast of AUDUSD.


Greetings and Introduction.
Good noon everyone.
Dollar is back under some selling pressure, starting in European session, and intensifies after poor job data. Weakness in the greenback is dragging down Canadian Dollar as the second worst performing, while Yen follows as third. Sterling is once again leading the way higher, followed by Aussie and Kiwi. Euro and Swiss France are mixed, as ECB minutes provides nothing special to traders.

Technically, GBP/USD’s break of 1.3951 confirms rally resumption for 1.4376 long term resistance level. GBP/JPY is also set to take on 147.95 key structural resistance. GBP/AUD is a focus for the rest of the week, on the race of top performer. The support from 55 day EMA so far is favoring the Pound. Break of 1.8020 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.7412 towards 1.8523 resistance next.

GBPNZD Analysis.
Price is approaching our 1st support, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support. We could potentially see a bounce and further upside towards our 1st resistance at 1.94184, in line with our 50% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above the Ichimoku cloud, showing bullish pressure in line with our analysis.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.93350

Reason for Entry:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support

Take Profit: 1.94184

Reason for Take Profit:

50% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 1.92655.



AUDUSD Analysis.
The AUDUSD pair settles around 0.7760 level and gets continuous positive support by the EMA50, which reinforces the expectations of continuing the bullish trend in the upcoming period, noting that our waited targets begin at 0.7820 and extend to 0.7915.
On the other hand, we should note that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 0.7695.
Price holding below descending trendline resistance. A short term intraday pullback below 1st resistance at 0.77771 towards 1st support at 0.77408 can be possible. Stochastic is approaching resistance where price reacted in the past as well.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.77771

Reason for Entry:

78.6% Fibonacci retracement, descending trend line resistance.

Take Profit: 0.77408

Reason for Take Profit:

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.77897

[noor616]

Update 3144 @ 20th February,2021 @ 07:10 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings.
Forecast of EURUSD.
Forecast of GBPUSD.


Greetings and Introduction.
Good morning everyone.
Sterling continues to trade as the strongest one for the week, as focus turns to UK retail sales and PMIs. Upside surprises there could give the Pound another lift. Australian Dollar is keeping itself close as second strongest for now. On the other hand, Yen and Swiss France are staying as the weakest, followed by Euro. Dollar and Canadian Dollar are both mixed.

Technically, the Pound appears to be in acceleration mode at the moment. EUR/GBP breaks 0.8670 support without any hesitation. Next target is 0.8533 projection level. GBP/USD is on track to 1.4376 long term resistance. GBP/CAD is on track to retest 1.8052 medium term resistance. One focus is whether GBP/JPY would break through 147.95 medium term resistance decisively. Another focus is whether GBP/AUD would break through 1.8020 resistance to resume the rebound from 1.7412 towards 1.8523 resistance.



Forecast of EURUSD.
The EURUSD pair rallies upwards strongly to approach our first waited target at 1.2173, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active for today, noting that breaching the mentioned level is considered as the key to extend the bullish wave towards 1.2300, while holding above 1.2064 represents key condition to continue the expected rise.
Recently, the EURUSD pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).
That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article.Recently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 was needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum. This allowed the recent bearish movement to pursue towards 1.2050 which failed to offer sufficient bullish pressure.
The price zone around 1.2000 provided temporary bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD. However, lack of bullish momentum was recently demonstrated. That's why, we were waiting for a bearish continuation Pattern.
Bearish persistence below 1.2000 enhanced temporary bearish movement towards 1.1960 where significant bullish rejection was expressed.
Trading suggestions.
That's why, the recent bullish spike has pursued towards 1.2150 (backside of the broken channel limit) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry were anticipated.
Initial Bearish target would be located around 1.2020 while S/L should be placed above 1.2150.


GBPUSD Forecast.
The GBPUSD pair resumes its positive trading to attack 1.4000 barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, which its next targets extend to reach 1.4200, noting that the EMA50 supports the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.3935.
the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating around the price-levels of 1.3700.
Sideway movement with slight bullish tendency was recently demonstrated while approaching these price levels around 1.3700-1.3750.
Bearish pullback was recently demonstrated. However, the GBP/USD pair has failed to maintain bearish decline.
Instead, Another temporary bullish movement was expressed above the previous WEEKLY High (1.3700).
Trade suggestions.
Further upside movement was expected towards the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.3950 where bearish rejection and a possible SELL Entry are suggested.
Short-term outlook can turn into bearish if only the GBP/USD pair could break below and maintain movement below 1.3780. If so, a quick bearish decline towards 1.3400 would be expected.

[noor616]

Update 3145 @ 21ST February,2021 @ 09:35 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings and Corona situation.
Forecast of OIL.
Forecast of GOLD.


Greetings and Corona situation.
Good morning everyone,hope you are enjoying weekend as today market is off and i am little bit worried about bonus but hope so it will be update in upcoming days.
The coronavirus statistical data is fixed at the levels that are two times below the record highs.
Thus, the global number of confirmed virus cases is 400 thousand a day. In particular, in the US the daily rise totals 80 thousand.
Death toll is approximately 2% from the number of infected people.
Importantly, a lower number of new cases leads to higher quality of patient care and treatment.
Vaccination programs: COVID-19 vaccine rollout is rather slow. The situation is a bit better in the US. About 14% of citizens are already vaccinated.In Russia, the vaccine rollout is very slow. Even in Moscow, where the local authorities are actively stimulating the vaccination program, only 10% have received their doses. In general, in Russia, only 3% of people are vaccinated.


Forecast of Crude Oil.
Crude oil price keeps its stability below the broken support of the minor bullish channel, to keep the bearish trend scenario active for today, which its main target located at 57.55, reminding you that the expected decline for today is temporary, expecting to resume the bullish trend after touching the mentioned target, while breaching 60.40 will push the price to regain the bullish trend and stop the current negative pressure.
At the end of the trading week, oil prices fell noticeably. Many analysts voiced concerns about the future prospects of the oil market after such a considerable decline.
On the trading floor in London, Brent futures for April were lower by 1.6%, or $1.02, moving down to the level of $62.91 per barrel.
On the electronic trading platform in New York, WTI futures for March sank even more by 2.1%, or $1.28. They are trading at $59.24 per barrel. WTF futures for April are now trading more actively, but even their value has significantly decreased. The drop was 2.1%, or $1.27, and the price amounted to $59.26 per barrel.

When summing up the results of the entire trading week, it becomes clear that even the most popular futures for WTI crude oil were below their previous level by 0.4%. However, Brent futures contract has not yet fallen to such a negative level. On the contrary, it showed a weekly growth of 0.8%. The most pleasant thing in this situation is that Brent has been soaring for the fifth week in a row. Additionally, Brent oil has been able to reach its highest level in the last thirteen months.

The oil market is primarily under pressure due to the events in America. Severe frosts caused a reduction in oil production by about 4 million barrels per day. Reportedly, the oil production in Texas is almost completely restored after severe frosts, which forced producers to temporarily shut down the production. The problem was related to the electricity supply, which had been resumed from the local grid, as well as through the use of generators. Therefore, the shale deposits have started working again. The pressure on the market has increased again. The amount of supply will go up again, while demand is not too volatile yet.

Nevertheless, experts try to calm down investors, arguing that the full recovery of the fields in Texas will take quite a long period of time, but the companies themselves engaged in production, hope to speed up the whole production and achieve the previous level in the coming days. Apparently, investors should be cautious.

Analysts warn that the situation in Texas oil is now of great importance for the market. Traders are sure to factor it in in the coming days, which may change the short-term forecast for the oil market.

The potential growth in hydrocarbon production on the territory of OPEC countries also adds fuel to the fire. Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, etc., which previously announced an additional reduction in oil output, now intend to start increasing it. Of course, this will not happen immediately, the pace will not be rapid. Yet, in the medium and long term, it may adversely affect the market.
Moreover, tensions between the United States and Iran seem to have come to an end, which is bearish for the market. The new US president expressed his intention to end the conflict that the previous president had started and to establish a friendly tone of communication. Thus, the US may lift sanctions on the Iranian oil industry, which means that the supply of hydrocarbons will only soar. It may also significantly change the balance of power.
However, so far, oil prices managed to rise again to the record values. It has not happened for more than a year. Yet, this rally may be short-lived. So, investors need to be more careful.


Gold Analysis.
Gold price tested 1785.00 and keeps its stability below it, starting to provind negative trades now, to keep the bearish trend scenario active for the upcoming period, which depends on the price stability below 1785.00, reminding you that we are waiting to visit 1740.00 as a next main station.
Second target reached at the price of $1.764. Potential for new downside wave and test of $1.730
UK February CBI trends total orders -24 vs -35 expected
Prior -38

Trends selling prices 3
Prior 4
UK industrial orders rebound in February with output seen stabilising after a sharp drop in January. The headline represents the highest reading since before the pandemic began, so that is some relative comfort. CBI notes that:
Manufacturing activity remains patchy, but so far appears to have taken a smaller hit than in previous lockdowns
The CBI readings are a survey on manufacturers to rate the level of volume for orders expected during the next 3 months.
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the Gold tested our second target at the price of $1,764.

Key Levels:

Resistance: $1,777

Support levels: $1,730 and $1,717.

[noor616]

Update 3146 @ 22nd February,2021 @ 07:00 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings.
Forecast of EURUSD.
Forecast of GBPUSD.


Greetings.
Good morning everyone,today is opening day of market,wish you all the best.

Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP
The dollar's gain was halted by weak weekly US unemployment data. The initial applications for the week amounted to 851,000, which is significantly higher than the consensus of 773,000. But the recalculation of the previous week from 793,000 to 848,000 had an even greater effect. Weak data cooled both dollar bulls and provoked a sale of risky assets since it looks like the US labor market is in dire straits and is postponing its growth for a longer period.

The reporting week will be included in the monthly statistics, which will be published on March 5, and taking into account the severe cold weather in February, non-farms are unlikely to show good growth, which is a factor of pressure on the dollar.

The fact that the labor market is now playing a decisive role in forecasts for the pace of economic recovery in the US is indicated by such a factor as ignoring the data on import and export prices for January, which is super positive in terms of inflationary expectations. Both prices have increased markedly.

US labor market still too weak to hope for quick economic recovery. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

However, inflation expectations, contrary to a seemingly logical reaction, unexpectedly fell - the yield on 5-year inflation-protected TIPS bonds fell from 2.37% to 2.29% by Thursday evening, that is, business in a negative trend in employment sees significantly more risks than positive from outstripping forecasts of industrial recovery.

Nevertheless, despite the unexpected negative on the employment market, we regard the dollar's outlook as quite bullish. Inflation expectations, after a short pause, will return to the growth trajectory as the cycle of rising energy prices picks up speed. Bond yields are growing, 10-year Treasuries have already risen above 1.3%, Thursday's negative trend did not change this trend, sales in the bond market continue, that is, investors assume that the economy will continue to recover.

EURUSD Outlook.
The EURUSD pair rallies upwards strongly to approach our first waited target at 1.2173, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active for today, noting that breaching the mentioned level is considered as the key to extend the bullish wave towards 1.2300, while holding above 1.2064 represents key condition to continue the expected rise.
European indices are rising again after Thursday's close in the red zone, but unlike the pound, the euro is much less likely to return to a bullish trajectory. Minutes from the ECB have bolstered confidence in the likely expansion of the buying program, Markit's February PM reports look mildly negative, and bearish pressures will remain strong until Tuesday when the January inflation report is released.

The resistance at 1.2170 is quite high, while the euro is lower - the rise should be used for selling. The current position of the euro offers a good chance of a downward pullback, and if Friday's CFTC report shows that the long position in the euro continues to decline, then the momentum may increase. We expect a decline below the nearest support at 1.2023.

GBPUSD Outlook.
The GBPUSD pair resumes its positive trading to attack 1.4000 barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, which its next targets extend to reach 1.4200, noting that the EMA50 supports the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.3935.
The pound continues its triumphant march, which is supported by several reasons at once. Firstly, the pound is still a commodity currency in many respects, unlike, say, the euro, so it looks more convincing against the dollar during periods when the demand for risk grows in the markets. Secondly, as of Thursday, 16.5 million people have been vaccinated in the UK, which significantly increases the chances of an earlier opening of the economy.

Thirdly, even a strong decline in retail sales in January due to covid restrictions (-8.2% versus December 2020) does not affect inflation, according to NIESR estimates, inflation in January rose by 0.9% using both methods, with and without taking into account the new "pandemic" spending weights.

[noor616]

Update 3147 @ 23rd February,2021 @ 07:00 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings.
Forecast of EURUSD.
Forecast of GBPUSD.


Greetings.
Good morning everyone.
The non-stop rally in global bond yields has started to infect other asset classes, bringing the party in stock markets to a halt and breathing some life back into the devastated US dollar. There hasn’t been any major news, so this repricing appears to be driven by expectations for a cannon barrage of spending from Congress that blows up the federal deficit and powers up the global recovery.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries has ‘crossed the Rubicon’ and is trading at a fresh one-year high near 1.38%, with real rates also moving higher as nominal yields climb faster than inflation expectations. This has grave implications for stock markets.

Negative real borrowing costs have been one of the greatest forces behind the stunning gains in equities this past year, so anything that changes this cheap-money dynamic is a real threat to the party. Consequently, futures point to a lower open on Wall Street today.


EURUSD Outlook.
The EURUSD pair resumed its positive trading to succeed reaching our first waited target at 1.2173, waiting for more rise to breach this level and open the way to head towards 1.2300 as a next station, to keep our bullish overview unless breaking 1.2064 and holding below it.
Recently, the EURUSD pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).
That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article.
Recently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 was needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum. This allowed the recent bearish movement to pursue towards 1.2050 which failed to offer sufficient bullish pressure.
The price zone around 1.2000 provided temporary bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD. However, lack of bullish momentum was recently demonstrated. That's why, we were waiting for a bearish continuation Pattern.
Bearish persistence below 1.2000 enhanced temporary bearish movement towards 1.1960 where significant bullish rejection was expressed.

That's why, the recent bullish spike has pursued towards 1.2150 - 1.2175 (backside of the broken channel limit) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry are anticipated.
Trade Suggestion.
Initial Bearish target would be located around 1.2020 while S/L should be placed above 1.2200.


GBPUSD Outlook.
The GBPUSD pair tested the intraday bullish channel’s support line and begins bouncing bullishly from there, which keeps our bullish overview valid for today, which gets continuous support by the EMA50, reminding you that our next target is located at 1.4100, while achieving it requires holding above 1.3975.
Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating around the price-levels of 1.3700.
Sideway movement with slight bullish tendency was recently demonstrated while approaching these price levels around 1.3700-1.3750.
Bearish pullback was recently demonstrated. However, the GBP/USD pair has failed to maintain bearish decline.

Instead, Another temporary bullish movement was expressed above the previous WEEKLY High (1.3700).
Trade Suggestion.
Further upside movement was expected towards the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.4000 where bearish rejection and a possible SELL Entry are suggested.

Short-term outlook can turn into bearish if only the GBP/USD pair could break below and maintain movement below 1.3900.

[noor616]

Update 3148 @ 24th February,2021 @ 07:00 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings.
Forecast of USDJPY.
Forecast of USDCHF.


Greetings.
Good morning everyone.

USDJPY Outlook.
The USDJPY pair provided positive trades yesterday but it bounced downwards strongly to break 105.20 level and settles below it, which stops the recently suggested positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline, on its way to achieve negative targets that start at 104.40 and extend to 103.65.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today, supported by the completion of the double top pattern that its signs appear on the chart, noting that the continuation of the expected decline requires holding below 105.20.
USDJPY made a low at 104.92 today just below the upward sloping support trend line we mentioned in our last analysis, but bulls stepped in and pushed price above the support once again. Price so far respects the key trend line support and as long as this is the case, we remain optimistic. If support fails to hold, then we expect USDJPY to fall towards 104.
Trade Suggestions.
USDJPY continues making higher highs and higher lows. Trend remains bullish and as we explained in our last analysis, as long as price respects the trend line, the pull backs are seen as buying opportunities. If support is broken then we expect the blue rectangle to be reached as this will be the first target.


USDCHF Outlook.
The USDCHF pair succeeded to reach our waited positive target at 0.9025, but it bounced downwards strongly to break 0.8975 level and settles below it, which hints the price head to return to decline again, on its way to achieve negative targets that start at 0.8923 followed by 0.8860.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today unless the price managed to breach 0.8975 followed by 0.9025 levels and hold above them.
USDCHF is trading at 0.9005 and it seems ready to resume its upside movement after a temporary decline, corrective phase. The price failed to come back down to test and retest the uptrend line in the last two attempts and now it has passed above the former highs signaling a further growth towards the channel's upside line.

USDCHF could continue higher and could develop a larger growth as long as it stays within the up channel's body, above the black uptrend line.

Trading Suggestion.
Passing above 0.9000 and beyond the former highs represents a buying signal. Still, maybe you should wait for the rate to overpass 0.9044 high before buying. Such a breakout signals an important swing higher ahead.

[noor616]

Update 3149 @ 26th February,2021 @ 07:00 AM (GMT +5)

Index.
Greetings.
Forecast of EURUSD.
Forecast of GBPUSD.

Greetings ,Dollar Introduction and Gold position.
Good morning everyone.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that it will take a long time to achieve the central bank's inflation target – about three years. This time frame was announced for the first time. For the financial market, this means that the printing press of the US central bank will work for a long time, and the rate will remain near zero. If earlier bank analysts allowed for a tightening of monetary policy more and more often in their forecasts, now this question has disappeared. Powell will put all the dots on the "i". The dollar received a clear negative signal. The dollar index went below 90 points on Thursday.

There is an uncertainty factor in the form of the report on the US GDP indicator. The market has recently reacted poorly to such figures, but, nevertheless, this is an important indicator that can affect the dollar exchange rate.
Gold price is at 1,780 after a rejection yesterday at the short-term resistance trend line at 1,805-1,810. Price made a low today at 1,769 very close to the double bottom low and horizontal support.
Gold price remains under pressure making lower lows and lower highs. Price got rejected at the short-term resistance trend line. There are increased chances that Gold price will break below recent and November lows at 1,760 for a move towards 1,700 and maybe $,680-90. Resistance remains key at $1,805 and trading below this level will be key for the bearish scenario.


EURUSD Outlook.
The EURUSD pair continues to rise and settles above 1.2200 barrier, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active on the intraday and short term basis, which targets 1.2300 as a next station, reminding you that it is important to hold above 1.2173 to continue the expected rise.
EURUSD is trading at 1.2236. In previous analysis we mentioned that price action was bullish and after the break out above 1.2150 we had 1.2220 as first target and 1.2350 as second target. We have now reached the 100% Fibonacci extension of the first leg up from 1.1950 to 1.2150.
EURUSD has reached the 100% Fibonacci extension and there is more upside potential. Support is key at 1.2020 and bulls must defend this level at all costs. Short-term support is at the 1.2150 level where the break out above the red resistance trend line occurred. Short-term trend is changing to bullish as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Next target is at 1.2350 and the January high.

Trade Suggestions.
That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article.

Recently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 was needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum. This allowed the recent bearish movement to pursue towards 1.2050 which failed to offer sufficient bullish pressure.

The price zone around 1.2000 provided temporary bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD. However, lack of bullish momentum was recently demonstrated. That's why, we were waiting for a bearish continuation Pattern.

However, a recent bullish spike has pursued above 1.2150 - 1.2175 (backside of the broken channel limit) where bearish rejection was previously anticipated.

Instead, bullish continuation pattern is being expressed above 1.2160 which now constitutes the nearest DEMAND Level to offer Bullish Pressure.

Further bullish movement is expressed to pursue towards 1.2330 which is the initialbullish projection target of the recent breakout pattern.


GBPUSD Outlook.
The GBPUSD pair shows more bullish bias to move away from the intraday bullish channel’s support line, which supports the continuation of our positive overview, motivated by stochastic positivity, waiting for more rise to visit 1.4230 followed by 1.4275 levels, while holding above 1.4070 represents main condition to achieve these targets.
To open long positions on GBPUSD

In the morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.4119, from which I recommended opening long positions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. The upward movement from the level of 1.4119 was quite good, however, I was waiting for the confirmation of the signal with a false breakdown or at least a test of the level of 1.4119. Thus, I was forced to miss this signal. All attention is now shifted to the resistance of 1.4186, from which I will continue to make a decision.

The breakdown and test of this level from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a new signal to open long positions to update 1.4241, where I recommend fixing the profits. A further target will be a maximum of 1.4324. In the scenario of lack of activity on the part of buyers and the return of the pair to the support area of 1.4119, I recommend opening long positions after the formation of a false breakout. You can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a larger low in the area of 1.4055, to which we can quickly collapse if good fundamental data on the US economy is released.

To open short positions on GBPUSD,

The bears' initial task is to regain control of the support of 1.4119, which they failed to do in the first half of the day. However, it will be quite difficult to achieve a decline under this level, since the pair is in an upward trend. A consolidation below 1.4119 and a test of this area on the reverse side form a signal to open short positions to reduce the pair to the area of 1.4055, where I recommend taking the profits. The longer-range target will be a minimum of 1.3983. In the scenario of GBP/USD growth in the second half of the day, it is best not to rush to sell but to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.4186. But I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only from the maximum of 1.4241, based on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day.