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Thread: Fx Techno (mishi) - Trading journal

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    Smile Fx Techno (mishi) - Trading journal

    Gold forecast


    Gold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Most commonly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven.


    SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
    S1 1800
    S2 1763
    S3 1739

    R1 1920
    R2 1930
    R3 1956

    An additional signal in favor of a rise in quotes and prices for GOLD in the current trading week December 28, 2020 ó January 1, 2021 will be a test of the rising trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the ascending channel. Cancellation of the growth option for XAU/USD quotes will be a fall and a breakdown of the area of ​​1715. This will indicate a breakdown of the support level and a continued fall in GOLD prices with a target below the level of 1655. Confirmation of the growth in the value of the asset will be a breakdown of the resistance area and closing of quotes above the level of 1975, which will indicate breakdown of the upper border of the descending channel and completion of the current correction in Gold.

    GOLD Price Forecast December 28, 2020 , January 1, 2021 assumes an attempt to test the support level near the 1845 area. Then, the GOLD prices will continue to rise with a target above the level of 2125. A test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI) will be in favor of raising the quotes. Cancellation of the GOLD growth option will be a fall and a breakdown of the level of 1715. This will indicate a continued decline in quotations to the area below the level of 1655.

    Gold price settles around 1875.00 level, and continues the attempts to breach to support the chances of continuing the main bullish trend, which moves organized inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, supported by the EMA50 that continues to carry the price from below.

    Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 1862.00, noting that our next targets begin at 1911.50 and extend to 1928.60.
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    Gold forecast
    Gold make his to upward in start of the session. Hits 1899 price level and facing resistance. It again bouncing back to 1888 price tag.
    But in D1 time frame there is bullish candlestick pattern, which shows the Gold will move upward.
    Corona vaccine is under final consideration. It will effects the market much. There a hope that After successful use of this vaccine will be a great impact on Forex market.
    Good luck all mates.
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    Red face The Latest Forecast of Gold

    Gold Market Predictions/Analysis:

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    As the marketís demand for safe-haven U.S. dollars is on the rise, the market is uncertain about the details of the US$1.9 trillion economic stimulus package announced by President-elect Joe Biden in Asia earlier, and the price of gold is still difficult to move up further.

    For gold, the actual rate of return will be the key to focus. Therefore, as long as the Fed continues to maintain its current position and Powell reiterated the Fedís position yesterday, this will continue to be the main driving force for the development of gold prices.
    After Powellís speech, the actual yield on Friday began to fall below -1%. If the price of gold continues to fall in this direction, it will support the price of gold, unless the dollar may undergo a stronger adjustment in the short term. Gold technical trend analysis

    It can be seen from the daily chart that the price of gold is still locked in a familiar range so far this week, and the upward attempt is limited by the bearish 50-day moving average (DMA), which is currently at $1,862. Meanwhile, the upward 200-day moving average is about $1844. However, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still trending in the bearish zone, currently at 44.18, cautious sentiment prevails.
    The next relevant support is at Thursday's low of $1,829. A break below that level may challenge the January 11 low of $1817. Conversely, breaking through the 50-day moving average may open the door for testing the 21-day moving average at $1,882. Further higher, the 100-day moving average of $1,888 will enter the buyer's radar.
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    Post Crude Oil (WTI) Analysis

    Crude Oil (WTI) Fundamental analysis:
    15-01-2021

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    The dollar's stabilization and rebound is the pressure that WTI crude oil prices may face in the short term. The US dollar index continues to stabilize at the 90 mark and the 20-day moving average, which increases the possibility of a further rebound, and if it breaks through the resistance near 90.70, it may usher in further rebound space. If this scenario occurs, WTI crude oil prices may be under pressure.
    If the U.S. dollar index breaks below the 90 mark again, there may be room for a drop to 89.50, which will boost WTI crude oil prices to resume their upward trend.
    Changes in market risk sentiment are currently not conducive to WTI crude oil prices. In the past month, the panic index VIX found a new bottom near 21. Currently, the index has once again hit 21 to rebound, which provides room for further deterioration in risk appetite.

    Crude Oil WTI Technical Analysis:
    The information in OPECís latest monthly report is lacklustre. WTI crude oil prices have slowed their gains under the negative influence of lower risk appetite and the rebound of the US dollar, and the trend has begun to fluctuate sideways.

    The four-hour chart shows that the price of WTI crude oil broke through the upward channel that began at the beginning of this month and began to enter the 52.30-54 shock range. In the short-term downside, focus on the 52.30-52.50 support area. If it breaks below, it may usher in further downside. However, the integrity of the upward channel since November last year means that the room for further downside may be limited. The support below mainly focuses on 51.50 and 51.00. And if it goes up in the short-term, the initial resistance above will focus on 53, and after the break above, it may point to the top 54 near the top of the range.
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    Post Weekly Review: Gold is expected to continue to fall, 1800 or will fall below

    Gold Forecast:
    The financial market as a whole was not volatile previous week, and the US dollar bottomed out and recovered, closing at 90.78, approaching the 91 mark. And gold opened previous week at 1844.57, the highest rose to 1863.8, the lowest fell to 1816.7, and closed at 1828.45. It continued the weakness of last week and closed again. The market outlook continues to fall.

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    Outlook for next week:
    Gold is expected to continue to fall, 1800 may fall below. In terms of gold trend previous week, it continued the decline of last week, and the market outlook is worrying. Surveys on Wall Street show that gold's situation may be worse next week.
    For the trend of gold next week, most Wall Street professionals hold both the downside and the fair view, and only a few believe that the price of gold will rise. Specific results, among the 16 Wall Street people, 37.5% believe that prices will fall next week, 37.5% hold a neutral attitude, and 25% are bullish.
    Analysts said that the market is digesting the impact of the stimulus plan, inflation concerns and the dollar rebound. Gold is facing a lot of pressure on the weekend, and there is still room for decline in the market outlook.

    Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that as stocks fell, people began to panic and began to sell. If the U.S. dollar index rises with yields, gold may fall below $1,800.
    Bannockburn Global Forex managing director Marc Chandler said that due to the strong US dollar and weak technical, goldís rebound this week failed. A break below US$1,800 may test the November low close to US$1765. Kitco Metals global trading director Peter Hug said that if the price of gold falls below US$1,825 next week, the price of gold may fall to US$1,800 and US$1,775.
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    Post Crude oil weekly Analysis

    Crude Oil market weekly Review:
    17-01-2021
    The crude oil market fell this week. US crude oil fell more than 3%, and Brent crude oil fell nearly 3%. OPECís monthly report this week was pessimistic, pointing to a major concern for the oil price outlook. In addition, the rebound in the dollar index also gave The market is overshadowed.

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    At present, the marketís willingness to increase oil prices is still strong, especially when the Biden administration announced on Friday (January 15) the latest US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan, which includes US$350 billion in local aid and 160 billion in vaccines. And testing costs. Biden said that the two-step plan includes rescue and recovery; a rescue plan will be developed now and a recovery plan will be developed next month.
    Declining US inventories and rising oil prices may also attract US drillers to resume production. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is striving to promote economic diversification, and the long-term prospects of the oil market are not optimistic.

    OPEC's monthly report this week is fatalistic:
    The OPEC monthly report predicts that the recovery of oil demand will be lower than the level before the virus pandemic. It is estimated that global crude oil demand will be 95.910 million barrels per day in 2021, and the expected growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2021 will be 5.9 million barrels per day. The OPEC monthly report believes that with the new coronavirus variants, the rising number of infections and the slow start of the vaccination plan, the global economic recovery in the first quarter of 2021 will be overshadowed at least.
    It is worth noting that OPEC said that OECD crude oil inventories fell by 24.5 million barrels in November to 3.1 billion barrels, but OECD oil inventories are still 163 million barrels higher than the 5-year average. At the same time, OPEC expects that as oil prices rise, the prospects for shale gas supply in the United States will turn optimistic. It is expected that shale oil will resume more production in the second half of 2021. After the OPEC monthly report was announced, WTI crude oil fell to an intraday low of $52.24.

    OPEC cuts production to give gifts to U.S. Oil Companies:
    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia and other allies (OPEC+) agreed this month to extend the production cuts until March. Saudi Arabia also made a voluntary decision to reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in February and March, in order to reduce supply and the decline due to the surge Match the needs.
    But falling inventories and rising oil prices may attract US drillers to resume production, especially when Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries cut production, effectively giving up market share to US producers.
    Price Futures Group senior analyst Phil Flynn said: ďI think what we are seeing now is a reduction in supply and a substantial increase in refinery oil production, making the market believe that refineries are beginning to increase the production of refined oil.Ē

    Stephen Innes, Axi's chief global market strategist, said in a report: "The oil market's rally may be suspended, as the strong US dollar and excess gasoline supply offset the decline in US crude oil inventories."
    U.S. crude oil production decreased by 2 million barrels per day last year. Low oil prices and low demand forced shale oil companies to reduce losses. Before the epidemic hit, investors were already putting pressure on the shale oil industry to curb spending and boost profits. Shale oil production will soon be cut, but if oil prices continue to rise, shale oil production may rebound quickly.
    According to data company Rystad Energy, when oil prices are in the range of 30 to 40 dollars per barrel, oil and gas companies in the top two shale fields in the United States can make profits. Ruizide Energy said that the increase in oil prices this year may boost the shale oil organization's operating funds by 32%. Another factor beneficial to shale oil producers is the reduction in oilfield service costs. Companies that provide fracturing sand and services have overcapacity. They have been unable to increase their fees after reducing their fees.

    Outlook of Crude oil:

    ANZ Bank analysts predict that the price of Brent crude oil in the next quarter will be around US$58/barrel and reach the level of US$60/barrel in the second half of the year. Specifically, the demand forecast will not be adjusted. The global crude oil inventory reduction will reach 1.1 million barrels/day in the first quarter. Therefore, the price target will be raised to 58 US dollars/barrel within 3 months. However, there are downside risks to short-term demand, which limits the future. Monthís upward price movement. It is estimated that in the second half of the year, global crude oil demand will increase by 4-5 million barrels per day, and the price of Brent crude oil will reach $60/barrel. The trend of WTI crude oil is also similar. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$57.90/barrel in 2021 and US$61.80/barrel in 2022.
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    Update on EUR/USD (18-01-2021)
    Greetings and have a good day ahead. I'm going to update my trading journal. Here is my analysis below.
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    Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD:
    1. The euro usd pair trading below 200 EMA. It fell slightly against the US dollar, hitting a new high for more than a month, and is now at 1.2075, a decrease of 0.06%. The blockade and political turmoil in Italy put pressure on the euro. Europe is facing a surge in infections, and the Italian government must win key parliamentary elections on Monday and Tuesday in order to remain in power. Because of his disagreement with the government's plan to use EU funds, former Italian Prime Minister Zizi decided to withdraw his support for the current coalition government. The move to merge the coalition government lost a majority of seats in the parliament and was on the verge of collapse.

    2. As some market experts expects that the euro against the dollar will rise to 1.25 in March, to 1.27 in June, and then further rise to the 1.28 level at the end; meanwhile, the dollar against the dollar will fall back to 103 in March, and the exchange rate in June is expected to be 102. At the end of the year, it further touched the 100 mark. In addition, commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar will also continue to strengthen during the year, reflecting the US's growing upward trend.

    3. The European Central Bank is unlikely to make any major changes to its policy settings on Thursday, and is expected to maintain its target interest rate unchanged at -0.5%. However, the European Central Bank is expected to reiterate its commitment to support the EU economy, although it is struggling to cope with the restart and extended blockade measures, which will lead to a contraction of GDP in the current quarter. The recent trend of the euro depends to a large extent on the US dollar. So far this year, the exchange rate of most G10 currencies against the US dollar has fallen.

    4. "The European Union is formulating measures to reduce its dependence on the US dollar and plans to enhance the status of the euro." German "Economic Weekly" reported on the 17th that the European Union has drafted a draft document aimed at strengthening the role of the euro in international settlements. Seeking to weaken the U.S. dollarís ​​international dominance and reduce the Eurozoneís vulnerability to financial risks, including US sanctions. "In the future, the euro is expected to become a symbol and tool of Europe's new sovereignty." The draft is expected to be adopted by the European Commission on January 19, the last day of US President Trump's current term of office.

    EUR/USD technical analysis:
    1. The euro/dollar is currently hovering at a low level after oscillating lower and falling below the 1.21 mark. From a technical perspective, from the 4-hour chart, the MACD green kinetic energy column is basically stable, the RSI indicator attempts to rebound from the oversold level, and the KDJ indicator touches the oversold level downward, indicating that the short-term decline in prices may slow down or further stabilize. The short-term initial support is at 1.2050, and the initial resistance can be seen at 1.2100.

    2. The euro fell 0.63% against the US dollar to 1.2075, the lowest since December 10. The exchange rate fell 1.21% for a week, the largest weekly decline since October. Under the exchange rate, the 55-day moving average is 1.2052; 1.2180 will be the key fulcrum for the rebound. The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting next week. One-cycle low delta put options attract buying, but options that expire before the central bank meeting may curb price fluctuations.
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    Update on Five major currencies:
    18-01-2021

    Greetings and Good evening All mates and visitors, Hope you all are doing well.

    Name: Untitled.png Views: 62 Size: 46.3 KB
    EUR/USD:
    The euro continues its downward trend. It is advisable to pay attention to 1.2080. If it continues to support downwards, it may be at 1.2000-1.2030, of which the 1.2000 mark is the main support for the 1.0750 upward trend. An effective drop below 1.2000 indicates that the upward trend may reverse. The resistance above the exchange rate is at 1.2100 and 1.2130, and some traders may continue to hold short positions.

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    GBP/USD:
    The pound continued to fall after being blocked at the 1.3700 mark, and strengthened its downward strength after falling below 1.3620. The reference support below is 1.3520-1.3500 and 1.3400. After the exchange rate has formed a phased peak, some traders may hold short positions with their backs from 1.3580-1.3600.

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    USD/JPY:
    USD/JPY continues the previous shock pattern. The current trading is near 103.70. The MACD green momentum column is slightly stable, the RSI indicator has fallen from the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator is trading below the 50 level. It is expected that the price may continue to consolidate in the short term. The short-term initial support is at 103.50 and the initial resistance is at 104.00.

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    AUD/USD:
    The Australian dollar is finishing at a high level, and there is a tendency to form a "phased top". The exchange rate has broken the 0.7000 upward trend line, indicating that the upward trend of more than two months has ended. It is appropriate to pay attention to the 0.5500 upward trend line. If it effectively breaks this line, it may indicate the Australian dollar The end of this wave of uptrend, the current point of support is 0.7680-0.7650 area.

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    NZD/USD:
    The New Zealand dollar broke through 0.7180, forming a short-term "head and shoulders" trend, with support at 0.7080-0.7050 and 0.7000 below. If the exchange rate continues to be under pressure at the top of the stage, it does not rule out that the New Zealand dollar breaks below 0.7080, and some traders may pay attention to the 0.7150-80 resistance and continue to hold a short position.
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    Gold trend Analysis:
    Updated on 19-01-2021

    Fundamental Analysis:
    Gold prices are struggling to continue Monday's strong rebound from a seven-week low of $1803, as the 200-day moving average (DMA) seems to be a thorny issue for the bulls. Investors are waiting for the testimony of Janet Yellen, the nominee of the US Treasury Secretary, and the new direction will be announced later in the National Securities and Exchange Commission meeting. In her prepared speech, Yellen called on Congress to take more action to combat the severe recession caused by the pandemic.
    She said: "Neither the president-elect nor me will propose this relief plan without considering the debt burden of the United States. But now that interest rates are at a historically low point, the smartest thing we can do is to do a big job."

    January 20th will be Biden's inauguration. Trump has stated that he will not attend the ceremony. According to the latest media news, Trump is scheduled to hold a farewell ceremony at 08:00 Wednesday morning before Biden is sworn in. The ceremony is scheduled to be held at the Andrews Joint Base on the outskirts of Washington, which is the parking base for Air Force One.   The outgoing President Trump will travel to Florida on Air Force One there. People including former government officials and other supporters received invitations, asking them to arrive before 7:15 in the morning.

    Trump decided not to attend the inauguration of Biden's successor in the U.S. Capitol on January 20, becoming the first living U.S. president to choose not to participate in regular power exchanges in more than a century. Biden will hold an inauguration ceremony at noon on the 20th local time, when Trump may have arrived in Florida.

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    Technical analysis:
    Acceptance of the currency above the 200-day moving average barrier is essential to expand the recovery towards the 50-day moving average of $1,860. The next relevant upside obstacle is $1876, which is the 21-day moving average.

    The upward trend seems to be limited by the key average, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is still in the bearish zone. The downside is that if selling regains control, the upward trend line support level of $1,805 may be tested. Several weeks low of $1803 will be the next target for bears. Below this level, the December 1 low of $1775.52 cannot be tested.
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    EUR/USD Trend analysis updated on (2021/1/19)

    Greetings and Good evening dear friends. Hope you all are doing well. Here is my analysis on EUR USD pair.

    Fundamental analysis:
    Euro traders digested the news that European car sales dropped 24% in 2020, and recorded the largest annual decline since the data was recorded in 1990. Focus turns to the German ZEW investigation, but the testimony of Yellen, the nominee of the US Treasury Secretary, will be key.
    If the German data is better than expected, the exchange rate will eventually regain the 1.2100 mark and focus on the 10-day moving average resistance at 1.2147. If the data is not good, the exchange rate will further fall back towards 1.2057/54 daily chart support 1/Monday low. The next support is at 1.2040 December 2 low.

    Technical analysis:
    In the European market on January 19, the euro is currently trading at 1.2087 against the US dollar, up 0.09% within the day. As the dollar rebounded, the euro against the dollar remained capped at 1.2100. Global stimulus prospects boosted the market and suppressed the safe-haven currency, the US dollar.

    The bears have the upper hand. For the bulls to rebound, the euro must regain 1.2125 against the dollar, previously triple bottom. Then it was 1.2175, which was a shock high point last week. Support is located near the one-month low of 1.2050, then the 1.20 integer mark and 1.1960. Operational recommendations: the euro rebounds in a short-term, and should focus on the 1.2150-1.2180 resistance, below which the downward trend remains unchanged, if the 0.2180 stands, the callback trend may end.
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    Greetings and hi my dear fellow members and visitors. The EUR/USD drops to 1.2140, today the euro lost momentum after hitting above 1.2180 in early trading and is now shrinking to an intraday low in the 1.2150-40 area.

    EUR/USD pair fundamental analysis
    The euro against the US dollar lost its upward momentum at the beginning of this week, so the results of the former German IFO survey in January disappointed the market. In fact, the IFO business climate index fell to 90.1 in January, while the current status quo index fell to 89.2, and the business expectations index fell to 91.1. All the data were lower than expected, showing that the morale of participants has declined.

    The lower than expected data also reflects the increase in the number of new coronavirus cases in Germany and the impact of new restrictions implemented to fight the epidemic. At the same time, the planned $1.9 trillion stimulus package seems to be facing some resistance from policymakers, especially its huge scale, which has also weakened the risk sentiment so far Monday. In addition, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak at the virtual Davos Forum on "restoring economic growth". In addition, European Central Bank board members Panetta, Ryan and Elderson will also speak later in the meeting.
    The rebound of the euro against the dollar successfully touched the area below the 1.2200 mark last Friday. Although the downward pressure has temporarily eased, the outlook for the euro against the dollar remains constructive and seems to be supported by the prospects for a strong recovery in the region and abroad, which in turn is supported by additional fiscal stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank . In addition, relative to the United States, real interest rates continue to benefit the euro zone, and the large number of long positions in the speculative market are also factors that support the euro.
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    Technical analysis
    Euro technical side At present, the euro against the US dollar is trading near 1.2155, down 0.22%. The initial support below is at 1.2076 55-day moving average, followed by 1.2053 18 January 2021 low, and finally 1.1976 November to The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January uptrend. On the upside, if it breaks 1.2189 22 January high, it opens the door to 1.2349 6 January 2021 high and 1.2413 17 April 2018 high.

    EUR/GBP
    The EUR/GBP is expected to further fall below 0.8900. The euro/pound is hovering near the intraday low of 0.8882, down 0.14% during the day. Traders in Brussels are preparing for Monday's trading. As a result, the EUR/GBP continued the trend of reversing from the short term downside resistance on January 13 last Friday. The recent positive for EUR/GBP bears may be the downside break of the 50 moving average and the weakening of the bullish MACD indicator. Therefore, EUR/GBP selling may target multiple support levels near 0.8865-60, and then challenge the monthly low, which is also the lowest level since May 2020, close to 0.8830.
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    When the EUR/GBP further weakens and breaks through 0.8830, 0.8800 will gain market attention. At the same time, if it breaks through the 50 moving average level of 0.8888, it should challenge the current trend line resistance at 0.8910. However, the EUR/GBP bulls are unlikely to be persuaded unless they continue to trade above the 200-day moving average, which is currently around 0.9010.
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