Fx Techno (mishi) - Trading journal

[Fxtechno]

Greetings and hi my dear fellow members and visitors. The EUR/USD drops to 1.2140, today the euro lost momentum after hitting above 1.2180 in early trading and is now shrinking to an intraday low in the 1.2150-40 area.

EUR/USD pair fundamental analysis
The euro against the US dollar lost its upward momentum at the beginning of this week, so the results of the former German IFO survey in January disappointed the market. In fact, the IFO business climate index fell to 90.1 in January, while the current status quo index fell to 89.2, and the business expectations index fell to 91.1. All the data were lower than expected, showing that the morale of participants has declined.

The lower than expected data also reflects the increase in the number of new coronavirus cases in Germany and the impact of new restrictions implemented to fight the epidemic. At the same time, the planned $1.9 trillion stimulus package seems to be facing some resistance from policymakers, especially its huge scale, which has also weakened the risk sentiment so far Monday. In addition, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak at the virtual Davos Forum on "restoring economic growth". In addition, European Central Bank board members Panetta, Ryan and Elderson will also speak later in the meeting.
The rebound of the euro against the dollar successfully touched the area below the 1.2200 mark last Friday. Although the downward pressure has temporarily eased, the outlook for the euro against the dollar remains constructive and seems to be supported by the prospects for a strong recovery in the region and abroad, which in turn is supported by additional fiscal stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank . In addition, relative to the United States, real interest rates continue to benefit the euro zone, and the large number of long positions in the speculative market are also factors that support the euro.


Technical analysis
Euro technical side At present, the euro against the US dollar is trading near 1.2155, down 0.22%. The initial support below is at 1.2076 55-day moving average, followed by 1.2053 18 January 2021 low, and finally 1.1976 November to The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January uptrend. On the upside, if it breaks 1.2189 22 January high, it opens the door to 1.2349 6 January 2021 high and 1.2413 17 April 2018 high.

EUR/GBP
The EUR/GBP is expected to further fall below 0.8900. The euro/pound is hovering near the intraday low of 0.8882, down 0.14% during the day. Traders in Brussels are preparing for Monday's trading. As a result, the EUR/GBP continued the trend of reversing from the short term downside resistance on January 13 last Friday. The recent positive for EUR/GBP bears may be the downside break of the 50 moving average and the weakening of the bullish MACD indicator. Therefore, EUR/GBP selling may target multiple support levels near 0.8865-60, and then challenge the monthly low, which is also the lowest level since May 2020, close to 0.8830.


When the EUR/GBP further weakens and breaks through 0.8830, 0.8800 will gain market attention. At the same time, if it breaks through the 50 moving average level of 0.8888, it should challenge the current trend line resistance at 0.8910. However, the EUR/GBP bulls are unlikely to be persuaded unless they continue to trade above the 200-day moving average, which is currently around 0.9010.

[Fxtechno]

Greetings and welcome to my trading journal

Updated on 20 February 2021

Crude oil weekly review:

U.S. oil closed down 1.19% weekly. Texas cold wave is surging around oil prices. Crude oil demand will gradually rise in the market outlook

U.S. oil closed down 1.19% weekly, the largest decline in two months, ending the previous two weeks of continuous gains. Crude oil prices soared and fell this week. U.S. crude oil closed a small negative line, and Brent crude oil closed a cross star; the United States and Iran were still at odds over the issue of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Both sides said that if each other Take action first, they are willing to return to the negotiating table, and this seems increasingly unlikely to happen. The United States said that Iran must first return to its commitments under the agreement, according to some reports, Iran said that if they want to return to the negotiating table, the United States must lift its economic sanctions in the short term. As time seems to be running out, the volatility of crude oil may increase in the next few days. Saudi Arabia may announce an increase in production in the next few weeks. U.S. Iranian relations are expected to further ease, which may bring further drag on oil prices. Traders should pay close attention.

The Biden administration is preparing a $3 trillion stimulus bill. The Washington Post reported this week that discussions on a $3 trillion bill have begun, including detailed plans for infrastructure, revitalization of manufacturing, and green energy proposed by Biden. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday that discussions on possible future projects are currently underway, but no clear decision has been made yet. On the basis of Biden’s first $1.9 trillion rescue plan and Trump’s $4 trillion rescue plan, the Biden administration will launch the second project during its term of office. According to the plan, 3 trillion is only a very preliminary figure.

The Texas cold wave is surging and about oil prices. The weather forecast shows that Houston ushered in the lowest temperature in February for 122 years in the early morning of the 16th. For the first time in a decade, millions of homes in Texas, the United States, were forced to take turns in power outages. Affected by an unprecedented Arctic cold wave, temperatures in most parts of the United States have plummeted and the energy market has plunged into chaos. The cold weather in Texas limits supply from the largest shale oil and gas field in the United States, and some traders were caught off guard by the cold wave.

Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil production as oil prices rebound. Saudi Arabia’s consultants said that Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil production in the next few months and cancel the recent substantial production cuts, which shows that the country is increasingly confident in the recovery of oil prices. The world’s largest oil exporter said last month that it will unilaterally and voluntarily reduce crude oil production by 1 million barrels a day in February and March to help raise oil prices. This move surprised the oil market.

Impact of the cold wave on U.S. refineries and OPEC + output rises and oil prices fall. Traders worry that the refinery will need time to resume operations after the cold wave in the southern United States and cause a demand gap. Oil prices fell 2% in early trading on Friday. OPEC+ supply is expected to increase. Insufficient demand from Texas refineries could lead to accumulation of crude oil inventories in the coming weeks. Some refineries may advance the maintenance work of about 500,000 barrels/day, which is usually scheduled for spring, to next month. OPEC+ said that given the rebound in prices, the organization’s oil-producing countries are likely to relax their supply restrictions after April. The United States said Thursday that it will negotiate with Iran, but I personally do not expect Iran's oil sanctions to be lifted in the short term.

Focus on next week
Next Thursday, the United States will announce the initial value of the fourth quarter GDP, durable goods and initial jobless claims. The market will also digest the PCE price index next Friday. Other data include the US house price index and Chicago consumer confidence index to be released next Tuesday, and new home sales data to be released next Wednesday. In the coming week, the fourth quarter GDP data of the United States and January personal income data should be revised upwards. People expect this to be achieved with the support of stimulus checks, but this has been digested We will also see that the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator the core PCE deflator is expected to be controlled at 1.4/1.5% year in January.

AUD/USD weekly review:

From the daily chart, the exchange rate has fluctuated at a high level in the past month, the Bollinger Band orbit is running horizontally, and the trend of the market outlook depends on the breakthrough of the Bollinger Band orbital 0.7595-0.7821 area. At present, KDJ has issued an overbought signal. The K line shows that the upward momentum has been exhausted, and the exchange rate is facing the risk of shocks and declines. Pay attention to the support near the middle rail of the Bollinger Band 0.7708. Support nearby. Currently this possibility is relatively large.

In view of the operation of the MACD Golden Cross, if the exchange rate is strong against the resistance near 0.7821 on the Bollinger Band, it is expected to open a new upward channel. There is no obvious resistance above this position in the short term. From the perspective of price calculations, a conservative estimate can be seen near 0.7880. For an optimistic estimate, it can be seen near 0.7940, and the high resistance on February 16, 2018 is near 0.7988.

USD/CAD weekly review:

The US unemployment claims data was weaker than expected, making traders believe that the Fed will stick to its loose monetary policy and will not deviate from its plan due to rising US Treasury yields. Optimistic risk sentiment revolves around vaccines to promote global economic recovery. But not all recovery is equal. There is speculation that the United States will achieve "herd immunity" by the end of April. This is not the case in Canada. In fact, due to the incompetence of the federal government, Canada is unlikely to have an effective immunization program before late September. In the overnight market, the US dollar/Canadian dollar fell from 1.2712 to 1.2607. This direction was determined by the boost of positive risk sentiment in the overnight market, and gained some support from Canadian retail sales data. The retail sales data is the worst result since April 2020. The monthly retail sales rate plummeted 3.4% in December. Statistics Canada had predicted a decline of 2.6% in December. They predict that January's performance is also weak -3% monthly rate, and the epidemic lockdown measures are considered to be the cause of this decline.

The exchange rate of the US dollar/Canadian dollar currency pair fell by 0.58% this week, with an amplitude of 1.20%, with a maximum of 1.2747 and a minimum of 1.2594, closing at 1.2618, and the weekly line closed at one week.

Since 2021, the USD/CAD trend has experienced challenges. Since entering this year, the currency pair has continued the downward trend formed during most of last year. However, in the first few weeks into January, when the trend hit the 1.2621 support level, selling began to stall. Note that the support inflection point appeared at a major point on the chart, and then a morning star pattern was formed on the candle chart, after which the price began to reverse upward. If the support can stabilize. The long term declining wedge does provide a little bullish breakout possibility when/if the price rises to the upper trend line again. But for now, what we really have is just a supporting inflection point.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 21 February 2021

Greetings and Hello my dear fellow members and visitors, hopefully you are enjoying your weekend with your kithon and kind. Analysis of major currencies is as below.

EUR/USD trend analysis:

Euro/USD is basically flat this week. Technically, the euro/dollar is bullish for a long time and there is room for a further rebound, but the 1.2170/80 resistance level needs to be cleared. Since mid January, the currency pair has faced selling pressure at the 23.6% retracement of the November/January gains. Technical indicators continue to lack directional power, but remain at a positive level.



Support : 1.2117, 1.2106, 1.2096,
Resistance: 1.2139, 1.2151, 1.2161

GBP/USD trend analysis:

GBP/USD has appreciated by more than 1.1% this week, which is the best week since mid December last year. Technically, the GBP/USD continues to climb in the overall upward trend, but it is close to an overbought state. The relative strength index on the daily chart is close to 70, which may indicate a more meaningful downward correction. However, the upward momentum remains strong, and the currency pair is trading above the 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages. All in all, if the exchange rate continues to rise slowly, then the bulls may have the upper hand.



Support : 1.4011, 1.3998, 1.3989
Resistance: 1.4033, 1.4042, 1.4055

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY fell to a multi-day low of about 105.30 area. On Friday, the selling pressure of USD/JPY accelerated during European trading hours and dragged to a three day low around 105.30 in the last hour.

USD/JPY saw some subsequent sell offs for the third consecutive trading day on Friday. It has now fallen by about 100 points from the five month high, near the 106.20-25 area reached earlier this week. The overall weakness of the US dollar contributed to this decline. The first disappointing number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States on Thursday has raised doubts about the pace of economic recovery in the United States, which in turn is seen as a key factor in suppressing the dollar.

The USD/JPY has fallen by more than 0.5% this week. Technically, technical factors have turned to support the USD/JPY. The relative strength index peaked on Tuesday and Wednesday in the overbought zone, indicating a mild reversal in the second half of the week. However, the exchange rate rebounded from the 200 day moving average support at 105.50, indicating that it is likely to be the third short term decline since the trend change in early January. The support and resistance lines are balanced, but the 21 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages reinforce any tendency to rebound after a decline.



The next relevant downside support level is located in the area of ​​approximately 104.40, the intra-month volatility low. If it falls below this area, it should be regarded as a new trigger point for bearish trading. Market participants are now looking forward to US economic data, with a focus on the release of PMI preview values ​​manufacturing and service industries and existing home sales data. This, combined with US bond yields, will affect the dollar price trend. Traders may further look for clues from broader market risk sentiment and seize some short-term opportunities.

Support : 105.53, 105.4, 105.2
Resistance: 105.85, 106.05, 106.18

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 22 February 2021

Spot gold
Global instability heats up, safe haven gold profits. Today February 22, gold is currently temporarily stabilizing near the $1,790 per ounce mark, and the short term gold price maintains an upward trend. In the intraday gold price range, see the upward trend.

The winter storm in the United States caused 50 deaths and Texas entered a state of major disaster. At the same time, the first batch of H5N8 avian influenza transmission cases were found in Russia. The World Health Organization has now known that global instability has once again risen, boosting the rise of gold. Last Friday, the price of gold went out of the turbulent market. The operation was naturally a shock order. It was directly empty below 1770, and gold fell to around 1760 as expected. At the same time, gold went up strongly in the evening, and the big Yang line broke through the sky and directly broke out of the 1780 line. There are more backhands. Today, the gold market opened in early trading and continued to jump from the sky. The bulls once again released a strong signal. Today, they continue the trend of last Friday. The bulls are today's main strategy. Today, gold continues to be bullish and long, and there is still room for upside. Today, the price of gold is supported near $1775. Relying on this support to continue to do more, continue to bullish above $1800.

On the other hand, the inflection point of the epidemic in the United States has not arrived yet, but the virus is constantly mutating. The effectiveness and safety of vaccines are always facing tests. This is the Damocles sword at the macroeconomic level. The longer and farther asset prices are from fundamentals. The more likely it is to be quickly beaten back to its original shape, starting at the end of the month, a new round of financial turmoil is gaining momentum. Gold opened today at $1782 per ounce and then rose to around $1790 per ounce and then fell back. The current price is around 1788. On the disk, all technical indicators are showing signs of stabilization. We need to pay attention to the strength of this rebound this week. So gold’s thinking this week is still mainly bullish low and long. In the short term, pay attention to the support of the hourly chart 10 day moving average 1777. If it touches 1778-1782, you can start to lay out long orders. The target above will look at 1791. This position is on the Bollinger Band. Track, the broken position continues to hold to see around 1805. The mid line outlook will be given again.


Review of foreign exchange market during European time

During the European session, spot gold expanded and rose above the $1,800 mark. It is now at $1,797.76 per ounce, an increase of 0.76%. The support from the weaker U.S. dollar overwhelms the pressure of rising U.S. bond yields. The fall in the U.S. dollar is helping to offset the impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields. Gold is in a strange situation. Obviously there is a need to hedge against inflation, but the rising risk sentiment puts pressure on gold.” The analyst said, "Rising yields will be the main resistance to the current rise in gold prices, but if Fed Chairman Powell hints at any dovish stance in Congressional hearings, or suggests that the current yields are too high and are not conducive to sustained economic recovery. The price of gold will rebound again. Gold is in a strange situation. On the one hand, there is a need to hedge against inflation. On the other hand, market risk sentiment is suppressing gold. But if Powell hints at the current interest rate Too high for the recovery of the US economy, then the price of gold may rise again.

USD index
During the European time, the US dollar index fell back from a high level and is now at 90.26, a decrease of 0.08%. As the economic outlook improves, traders seek currencies that are closely related to bulk global commodity transactions. Progress in curbing the spread of the new crown virus has also boosted investor confidence in risky assets. Once the darkest period of the new crown epidemic has passed, the dollar is expected to fall further as more investors focus on economic recovery. Commodity currencies and the British pound are particularly strong against the U.S. dollar, and this trend seems to continue. The UK's vaccination program has made great progress. Economic activities in many places are gradually returning to normal, which puts some pressure on the US dollar. The size of the US dollar net short position has declined for the fourth consecutive week. It shows that there are still some investors who are optimistic about the dollar.

EUR/USD
During the European session, the euro rose slightly against the US dollar, and is now at 1.2138, an increase of 0.16%, due to the slight weakening of the US dollar. The relationship between the euro and the dollar mainly depends on the difference in economic growth between Europe and the United States. The medium term trend of the euro against the dollar depends on whether the US economy can achieve stronger post-blockade growth than Europe, and the euro to suffer a setback in the first half of 2021. The outlook for the euro against the dollar is unclear. The exchange rate is expected to strengthen last day, but it is unlikely to break through the strong resistance at 1.2125. The strong surge to 1.2143 is surprising. Although the rapid rise seems excessive, there is still room for further growth. However, it is not expected to break through last week’s high of 1.2170. 1.2150 is already a very strong resistance level. On the downside, support is at 1.2100 and then 1.2080.

The short term outlook for the euro against the dollar is unclear. The outlook for the euro against the dollar is unclear. The exchange rate is expected to strengthen last day, but it is unlikely to break through the strong resistance at 1.2125. The strong surge to 1.2143 is surprising. Although the rapid rise seems excessive, there is still room for further growth. However, it is not expected to break through last week’s high of 1.2170. 1.2150 is already a very strong resistance level. On the downside, the support level is at 1.2100 and then 1.2080.

GBP/USD
During European time, the British pound rose slightly against the US dollar and once continued to hit a new high in the past three years. It is now reported at 1.4029, an increase of 0.09%. Bullish traders are betting that the British vaccination plan is expected to drive economic recovery. The recent strength of the pound to Britain’s relatively rapid advancement of the new crown vaccination program, which is expected to help the British economy rebound from its biggest contraction in 300 years. The United Kingdom avoided a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020, which relieved the market, which also supported the pound, and the easing of concerns about the Bank of England’s implementation of negative interest rates also supported the pound. The main reason for the pound to rise against the dollar this year is the strengthening of the pound, not the weakening of the dollar. The market is also adapting to the fact that the Bank of England is currently unlikely to implement negative interest rates, which has led to a narrowing of the gap between the UK and US 10 year government bond yields.

The pound is expected to rise to 1.4100 against the dollar. The pound against the dollar will rise to 1.4100 in the next few weeks. The previous day emphasized that it will first rise above 1.40 before the correction, and it is unlikely to touch the next resistance at 1.4050. This view is correct, and it rose to 1.4036 on the same day. It is currently approaching 1.4050. Due to strong momentum, the exchange rate is expected to break through this point, but it will not touch the next resistance at 1.4100. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.4005 and then at 1.3975.

USD/JPY
During the European session, the dollar rose slightly against the yen and is now at 105.51, an increase of 0.06%. Since the weekend, global market risk sentiment continues to heat up as the epidemic further subsides, causing the safe haven yen assets to be sold again; Israeli scientists previously The release of the report stated that Pfizer's new crown vaccine has indeed taken effect on a large scale to block the spread of the epidemic, which has further increased the risk appetite in the global market. As a result, the US dollar against the yen regained the 200 day moving average, showing that the mid-term reversal trend is still continuing. Investors are paying extra attention to the next direction of the US financial aid measures, and after the snow storm in the United States, the trend of further return of funds to the North American market will also put additional pressure on the yen. The short term USD/JPY resistance level looks at 105.92, after breaking through last week's high of 106.22, it will once again become the target of attack.

Crude Oil
During the European session, U.S. oil surged back, and is now reported to be 60.02 US dollars per barrel, up 1.28%. Although the slow recovery of U.S. crude oil production has caused concerns about supply, demand has gradually recovered from the trough of the new crown virus epidemic. Sources said that Saudi Arabia contacted several OPEC member states on Sunday to discuss the terms of the April production reduction agreement and its differences with Russia. Saudi Arabia plans to maintain OPEC's April oil production at current levels. Because of the possibility of increasing supply, it is expected that the price of Brent crude oil will reach 70 US dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 2022. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are assessing the damage to their facilities and it may take up to three weeks to restore most of the production. Low water pressure, natural gas and electricity losses hinder the recovery of the refinery.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 23 February 2021

Greetings and Hello my dear fellow members and visitors, I am busy in my technical work that's why it's difficult for me to update my trading journal on time. Here's my update on Spot Gold, crude oil, spot silver and other major currency pairs.


Spot Gold:

Gold skyrocketed yesterday because the market once again focused on the US bailout bill and the reform of the salary protection plan. Up to now, gold temporarily reported near $1,812 per ounce, and the price of gold has not risen much on the daily line, and the gold price range has fine tuned its upward trend.

On Monday, gold rose unilaterally, confirming the supportive trend, so the idea of ​​gold this week is mainly bullish. At the end of Monday, it fluctuated at the intraday high. The opening in the morning continued to test upwards. Although it refreshed yesterday's high, the upward trend was not very continuous and the closing line fell. Therefore, the Asian gold is temporarily not considering chasing the rise. The price of gold still depends on the callback in the short term.

Spot gold fell slightly, now at $1808.53 per ounce, a decrease of 0.05%. Spot gold maintained a narrow range fluctuation pattern during the day. The US dollar index rebounded from the lowest point since January 13 at 89.941, limiting the rise in gold prices. Technically, the initial resistance of gold is at $1830, but the more powerful resistance is still at the 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages. These three moving averages are concentrated between 1,850.50 US dollars and 1,860 US dollars. The 50 day moving average fell below the 200 day moving average last week, and the 100 day moving average seems to be the same in the next few days. This is an ominous sign.


Pay attention to 1813-1812. Use this as a short term suppression to see adjustments. For the lower support, look at 1800-1797. Of course, this is an ideal trend. If gold in the Asian market does not give back room, then the European market will consider Chase the rise above 1810.


USD index:

Fed Chairman Powell will attend a hearing in Congress on Tuesday February 23, to brief lawmakers on the latest economic situation. The US economy is still plagued by the epidemic, but if the US vaccination plan advances quickly, there is hope that the economy will take off later this year. The hearing may focus on the tension between the epidemic and the economy. The new crown epidemic has killed more than 500,000 Americans and millions of people have lost their jobs, the economy is flooded with savings and Fed support measures, and a new round of federal spending stimulus is about to be received. The dovish expectations of Powell’s congressional testimony have caused the US dollar index to close down in the past three trading days. It once hit a new low of 89.94 in more than a month on Tuesday, and it has now rebounded to around 90.14.



The US dollar index rose to 90.21, an increase of 0.13%. The dollar index rebounded slightly to around 90.00 on Tuesday, trying to find a direction. After three consecutive daily corrections, the US dollar index did not have a clear direction on Tuesday, and at the same time challenged the 2020-2021 support line near the psychological threshold of 90.00. Technically, the initial support below the US dollar index is at 89.20, then 88.94, and finally 88.25. On the other hand, a break of 91.05 will open the door to 91.42, 100 day moving average and 91.60.


EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD fell, and is now at 1.2144, down 0.10%. The euro/dollar rose for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday. Although US Treasury yields have stabilized recently, the continued decline in the US dollar has pushed the currency pair upward. Technically, if the EUR/USD breaks through 1.2179, it will point to 1.2189 and 1.2349. On the downside, the next support is at 1.2023, then 1.2004, 100 day SMA and 1.1952.


GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD rose to 1.4070, an increase of 0.08%. All eyes are now on the Fed Chairman Powell's testimony in Congress. Powell's speech may suppress the dollar's decline, and the pound is expected to rise against the dollar. Technically, the short term resistance is 1.4097, a new multi year high. Further above resistance is at 1.4145, 1.4255 and 1.4370 levels at the beginning of 2018. Support is located at 1.4050, the daily low, then 1.3980 and 1.3950, both of which are stepping stones in the rising process.



USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY has risen to 105.36, an increase of 0.29%. The USD/JPY rebounded steadily from the low point since a week and a half, and reached the 105.25-30 area of ​​intraday high in the European market in early trading. Technically, after showing certain resilience below the key psychological level of 105.00, the USD/JPY rebounded on Tuesday, which seems to indicate that the recent sharp correction from the five-month high around 106.20-25 has ended. The rise of the US dollar against the yen caused it to rebound after falling for four consecutive trading days and was driven by a series of supporting factors.


Spot silver:

Spot silver fell by 0.92%, quoting 27.87. iShares Silver ETF held 19,029.49 tons of silver on February 22, a decrease of 213.77 tons from the previous trading day. When Fed Chairman Powell testified to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, the market will focus on whether Powell will become less dovish and more concerned about signs of inflation. Technically, the price of silver fell below the seven week support level near $27.95, which may limit the direct downward movement of gold prices and drag it into the convergence point of the 21st moving average price index and the downward trend line starting on February 01. It is currently around $27.05.




Crude oil:

U.S. oil has risen slightly and is now at 61.97 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.44%. Vaccines are expected to quickly drive the global economic recovery, and it also pushed U.S. oil to a multi year high. U.S. oil reported $62.21 per barrel, up 0.78%. From a technical point of view, the top is still facing suppression at the level of 62.50 US dollars, and overall the pattern of high shocks has not changed. It is worth noting that if oil prices want to further rise above the resistance of 62.50 US dollars in the short term, we need to pay attention to the support of the lower $61.0 level, and the upper side can pay attention to the 62.5 US dollars and 65.0 US dollars.



AUD/USD:

AUD/USD will continue to rise. The next key resistance is 0.7988. On Tuesday, the Australian dollar against the US dollar continued its gains and rose sharply again, and then, as expected, there was a temporary pause near the March 2018 high of 0.7917. The Australian dollar against the US dollar briefly broke through this level this morning. Australian dollar is still in a clear upward trend. If it continues to stay above the high of 0.7917 in March 2018, it will look towards the key high of 0.7988-8000 in mid February 2018.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 24 February 2021

Forex market review / Forex operation strategy plan:

Greetings and Hello my dear fellow members and visitors, today I'm going to update my trading journal with analysis and operation strategies.

Dollar Index:

The U.S. index's correction on Tuesday was supported above 89.90, and the rebound was blocked below 90.30, which means that the dollar may maintain a rebound trend after a short term correction. If the U.S. index is supported today's pullback above 90.00, the target of a rebound in the market outlook will point to 90.35 to 90.45. Today, the US refers to short term resistance at 90.30 to 90.35, and short term important resistance at 90.40 to 90.45. Today, the US refers to short term support at 90. to 90.05, and short term important support at 89.80 to 89.85.



EUR/USD:

The European and American rebound on Tuesday met resistance below 1.2180, and the callback was supported above 1.2035, which means that the European and American short term rebound may maintain a callback trend. If the EUR and USD rebound today meets resistance below 1.2170, the market outlook callback target will point to 1.2125 to 1.2105. Today, the short term resistance in Europe and the United States is at 1.2175 to 1.2170, and the short-term important resistance is at 1.2195 to 1.2200. Today, the short term support in EUR and the United States dollar is at 1.2125 to 1.2130, and the short term important support is at 1.2105 to 1.2110. Europe and the United States succeeded in establishing long positions between 1.2135 to 1.2145, and the highest rose to 1.2166, with short term profit margins of 20 to 30 points.



EUR/USD operation strategy:

If it rises to 1.2165 to 1.2175, you can sell, stop loss above 1.2200, and target at 1.2125 to 1.2130, 1.2105 to 1.2110.

USD/Canadian dollar operation strategy:

If it falls to 1.2560 to 1.2570, you can buy, stop loss below 1.2530, and target at 1.2630to 1.2635, 1.2670 to 1.2675.

USD/JPY operation strategy:

you can buy if it falls to 105.00 to 105.10, stop loss is below 104.65, and the target is 105.50 to 105.55, 105.70 to 105.75.



GBP/USD:

The GBP and the United States dollar require longs between 1.4170 to 1.4240 and the lowest exchange rate drops to 1.4054, which meets my requirements for entering longs 5 to 10 points in advance. If traders are long, the highest rises to 1.4236, and the short term profit margin is 50 to 60 points.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 24 February 2021

Greetings and hi, dear forum fellows we are waiting for weekly bonus, which is delayed from last three weeks. I hope it will credit soon in our trading accounts. It's great to be part of MT5 forum, because they providing us such a wonderful platform to learn and earn together.

Euro/U.S. dollar

The euro regained some composure and pushed the euro against the dollar again to the 1.2170 area, where it encountered some solid resistance. Now EUR/USD bounced back to the 1.2120 area.

EUR/USD fundamentals:

The euro against the US dollar quickly got rid of Tuesday’s small decline and rebounded to the 1.2170 area, although the euro bulls still struggled to break through this area.

The positive performance of the euro against the US dollar is a response to the weak sentiment of the US dollar, especially after Chairman Powell strengthened the Fed to maintain the current dovish stance. Powell reiterated in his semi annual monetary policy report that inflation and the labor market are far below the Fed’s targets, which further supports the view that interest rate hikes are still far away.



So far, the euro against the dollar has performed well above the 1.2100 mark, and is still facing strong resistance near the 1.2200 mark. However, in the long term, the constructive outlook for the euro against the dollar is expected to remain unchanged, which is supported by reinflation/vaccine trade and hopes for a strong recovery in the region. In addition, relative to the United States, real interest rates continue to benefit the euro area, as well as a large number of long positions in the speculative market, which is another factor supporting the euro.


Key events in the Eurozone this week:

European Council meetings, Thursday and Friday. European Central Bank President Lagarde will participate in the G20 Central Bank Governors and Finance Ministers meeting on Friday. The outstanding problem behind the: the appreciation of the euro may trigger the verbal intervention of the European Central Bank, which always targets inflation. A fund for the economic recovery of the European Union. A large number of speculative long positions.


Currently, the euro is up 0.03% against the US dollar, reaching 1.2152, breaking through 1.2180 (23 February high), and will open to 1.2189 (January 22 high) or even 1.2349 (January 6, 2021 high) door. On the downside, the initial support level is 1.2023 (February 17 low), followed by 1.2008 (100 day moving average) and 1.1952 (February 5, 2021 low).


USD/CHF:

A strong rise, the next resistance is at 0.9090. The US dollar against the Swiss franc rose unexpectedly strongly, breaking through the key high in early February and the downtrend line since the beginning of 2020. It is currently 0.9036 to 46, indicating that it will continue to rise in the short term.

Core points

I have changed our current preference and tend to move up further. We are expected to initially test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9090 of the decline since September 2020. Although I expect that the area will cap and reverse under ideal circumstances, I believe that the USD/CHF may rebound further to the 200 day moving average of 0.9142. I expect this level to stubbornly block the exchange rate upward.



While the support level was initially seen at 0.9039, a break below this level will form a small top and hint that the USD/CHF will fall back to 0.8975 to 57 a series of key short term averages. If it falls below 0.8949, the outsourcing day pattern will be negated, and the next support level will be at 0.8934. We expect USD/CHF to stabilize in this area.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 25 February 2021

Gold and GBP/USD trend analysis

Greetings hi, Gold is under pressure to explore 1790. It is difficult for gold prices to achieve a meaningful rebound.

In the European market on Thursday (February 25), spot gold maintained a downward trend, and currently barely maintained above 1790. The market is concerned about data such as initial unemployment claims in the US. Yesterday, gold closed at 1,805.50 US dollars, almost unchanged. This concealed a day of violent fluctuations in the price of gold, which was once as low as $1,784.00 and as high as $1814.

The late rebound in gold should be attributed to Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish prospects, but doubts about gold prices at these levels still linger. Despite the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the suspension of the rise in US Treasury yields, gold still cannot achieve a meaningful rebound. With the full recovery of global trade recovery, it seems only a matter of time before U.S. Treasury yields rise again. This will put pressure on gold again. Its role as an inflation hedging tool now seems to be limited to spiral inflation of wages/prices, rather than temporary inflation driven by costs.



Gold has resistance at 1817, followed by the $1830/ounce area. The area between $1848 and $1860 is still a huge resistance for gold, including 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. The initial support level is $1784.00, and the double bottom, 50% Fibonacci level is at $1760.00, which is the key support level that gold must hold. The misconduct destined for gold to fall further to the $1,600 area.

GBP/USD

The market seems to have been waiting for further reassurance from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before convincingly higher again. This optimism is bad for the dollar, despite rising bond yields. Before final approval in the next few days, the FDA has improved Johnson & Johnson’s single dose vaccine. This also reminds us that the British vaccination campaign is still going on at full speed after vaccinating a quarter of the population. The busy US economic agenda awaits traders, their expectations for all data have improved from the revision of the fourth quarter growth data, to the durable goods orders in January, and finally the number of weekly unemployment claims. When the threshold is high, the probability of disappointment is also high. A series of pessimistic economic data may provide the impetus for the next round of pound dollar rebound.



The relative strength index on the 4 hour chart has fallen below 70, correcting the overbought state and opening the door for further gains. The momentum continues to rise, and the GBP/USD continues to trade above the 50, 100 and 200 period simple moving averages. Initial resistance is at the 1.42 integer mark, followed by the 2021 high of 1.4240. The initial support is at 1.4120, the intraday low, followed by 1.4080 and 1.4050, which are all stepping stones to the rise.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 26 February 2021

Today's Major currency trend forecast

Greetings and Hello my dear fellow members and visitors, today is last trading day of the week and I avoid to trade on Friday. Now come to the point, yesterday (February 25), the U.S. dollar index closed at 90.21, up 0.18%. It once touched the lowest level since January 8 at 89.68. As the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.6%. Yesterday the U.S. dollar index rebounded from a seven week low and once again rose above the 90 mark. The 10 year U.S. Treasury yield soared and broke through the key 1.6% level, boosting traders interest in the U.S. dollar, the pound fell more than a hundred points and touched The 1.40 mark, USD/JPY hit a new high since September 4 last year to 106.40, commodities related currencies performed the worst among G-10 currencies.



In Asian trading session on Friday (February 26), the US dollar index rose further, the US dollar rose against most G10 currencies, and non-US and commodity currencies fell. The rise in Treasury bond yields indicates that people expect the economy to rebound strongly after the epidemic. Some currencies that usually underperform in the global economic rebound are now lagging behind. The recent changes in the US dollar against different currencies have been different. The situation is not like last year, when the real yield of the US fell and the US dollar was sold across the board.

US News:

The US released the latest GDP, inflation and employment data overnight. In the United States until the 20th, the number of initial jobless claims fell to 730,000, with a pre correction of 841,000, the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States increased by 3.4% in January; the revised value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States increased by 4.1 %. Some agencies pointed out that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States dropped sharply last week, which means that the rate of job cuts in the United States has begun to slow down as the new crown epidemic rate drops and vaccination activities accelerate. The strong performance of economic data has helped market risk sentiment improve significantly.


European market news:

the weak rebound of the euro against the dollar reflects the slowdown in the distribution of recovery funds and vaccines. Although the support level should be significantly lower than 1.20, the upside seems to be limited, the European Council’s intention is to strengthen unity, but it is also It may highlight the failure of vaccination and the difficulties of vaccine production and delivery. Considering that the much-bragged recovery fund is still to be released, it may also raise questions about the financial response to the epidemic; the slow release of vaccines and funds Suppress regional confidence. Pay attention to the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to hold a video conference, Lagarde will participate in the meeting, fearing that it will have an impact on the trend of the euro.

Intra day market outlook:

Traders can focus on the US House of Representatives starting to vote on the new version of the US$1.9 trillion fiscal bailout bill. If the 19,000 fiscal stimulus makes significant progress, it will affect the gold dollar trend. In terms of economic data, the final value of the annual GDP rate of France in the fourth quarter, the annual and monthly rates of the US core PCE price index in January, and other data may have an impact on the dollar and gold trends. In addition, the market should also pay attention to the video conference held by the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, when Lagarde will make a speech, fearing that it will have an impact on the trend of the euro.



Euro/USD:

EUR/USD fell by 0.14%, quoted at 1.2160, closed at 1.2177 yesterday, and opened at 1.2177 today. Fundamentally, the adventurous sentiment in the entire financial market is very strong, intensifying speculators' already huge bets on the euro against the dollar, which may exceed record highs. Technically, the initial resistance for the upward exchange rate is at 1.2223, the further resistance is at 1.2276, and the key resistance is at 1.2310, the initial support for the downward exchange rate is at 1.2136, the further support is at 1.2102, and the key support is at 1.2048. Pay attention to the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to hold a video conference, Lagarde will participate in the meeting, fearing that it will have an impact on the trend of the euro.



GBP/USD:

GBP/USD continues to fall by 0.08%, quoted at 1.3994, closed at 1.4006 yesterday and opened at 1.4021 today. GBP/USD fell for the first time in six days, closing at 1.4008, a decrease of 0.93%. Fundamentally, the speeding up of the new crown virus immunization program and the British government's plan to relax the blockade restrictions make the pound still well supported. British Prime Minister Johnson has announced a new four step plan to end the blockade on June 21. This progress seems to raise the hopes of the UK's economic recovery and suppress the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Technically, the initial resistance for the upward exchange rate is at 1.4125, the further resistance is at 1.4243, and the key resistance is at 1.4305; the initial support for the downward exchange rate is at 1.3945, the further support is at 1.3883, and the more critical support is at 1.3764. Pay attention to the video conference held by the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, as well as economic data from Europe and the United States, which are expected to affect the trend of the pound, and also pay attention to the Bank of England chief economist Haldane's speech on inflation.




USD/Japanese Yen:

USD/JPY rose slightly by 0.07%, quoted at 106.17, closed at 106.17 yesterday and opened at 106.42 today. The dollar/yen rose for the third consecutive day, closing at 106.24, an increase of 0.35%. Fundamentally, the progress of vaccination and the progress of the large scale fiscal expenditure plan of the United States, traders are still happy to see a strong recovery in the global economy. US House of Representatives Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said that the House of Representatives will vote on President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan on Friday or weekends. In addition, Johnson's single dose vaccine appears to be safe and effective in clinical trials. Regulators may approve emergency use this weekend. In addition, the gentle remarks of Fed Chairman Powell further boosted global risk sentiment. Technically, the initial resistance for the upward exchange rate is at 106.45, the further resistance is at 106.72, and the key resistance is at 107.04, the initial support for the downward exchange rate is at 105.86, the further support is at 105.54, and the more critical support is at 105.27. In the daytime, the US January core PCE price index annual rate and monthly rate data will be released. If the data is better than expected, it will boost the trend of the dollar, which may have an impact on the exchange rate. In addition, the US House of Representatives began to vote on a new version of the US$1.9 trillion fiscal bailout bill that will also have an impact on the market.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 28 February 2021

Forex market Review: The U.S. dollar index bottomed out this month, the non US market broke out, the euro fell slightly, and the pound rose.

From the perspective of this week, the US dollar first declined and then rose this week. Powell’s dovish remarks once touched a low of 89.67, and then continued to rise driven by rising US bond yields. A strong rebound on Friday hit a one-week high near 90.96. The trend of the euro was the opposite. This week, it rushed to around 1.2243, but it quickly fell back from the high level. On Friday, it plunged nearly 100 points and finally dropped to the 1.2065 level. The trend of the pound is similar to that of the euro. This week ended the previous six week continuous rise. After breaking through the 1.42 mark, it continued to fall. On Friday, it once fell below 1.39. The USD/JPY has been climbing this week, reaching the highest level of 106.69, a six month high.




From the perspective of this month, the US dollar index bottomed out this month and rebounded, and the overall pattern of shocks remained basically maintained. The Fed’s continued easing policy and Biden’s 1.9 trillion stimulus measures put pressure on the US dollar, but the US Treasury yields soared and the good US recovery prospects supported the US dollar, so the US dollar’s ​​overall trend fluctuated. Among non-US varieties, the trend of the British pound is the most noticeable. The British February vaccination continued to lead the major economies, which inspired investors to expect the UK to recover early in the major economies and pushed up the pound.

In recent weeks, the prospect of more fiscal stimulus in the United States has generally driven the market’s re-inflation transactions, driving up global bond yields, led by U.S. bonds. Since August last year, the yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury has tripled. The benchmark 10 year bond yield exceeded 1.50% on Thursday, the first time in a year. Fed policymakers disapproved of the sharp rise in US long term Treasury yields, thinking that this is a sign of growing optimism about the economy. As more people are vaccinated against the new crown virus, economic growth may accelerate. So far, no official has hinted that it intends to relax the Fed’s easing policy stance, despite the continued rise in yields.



Fed officials said that the increase in yields reflects that with more vaccines and more fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced soon, investors are confident that the economy will usher in a strong recovery in the second half of the year. Better prospects may indeed provide a rational basis for rising yields. But what began to disturb the market was the sudden rise in real yields or the recurrence of excessive inflation. Such a shift could tighten financial conditions, draw funds away from the stock market, and endanger the recovery.

Regarding market anxiety, Powell tried to appease investors. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee in his semi annual monetary policy report on Tuesday that the economic recovery is uneven and far from complete. The US economy still needs support, and the loose monetary policy is likely to be promoted in the economic boom that has already begun. The argument that high inflation brings financial risks, Powell said that in the process of economic recovery driven by vaccination, the Fed will continue to focus on getting Americans back to work. At a time when the job market was severely hit and inflation was weak, Powell conveyed a simple message to investors concerned about rising U.S. Treasury yields and price risks: Pay attention to the data and don't expect any changes in monetary policy until the economy has improved significantly.

The Fed has stated that it will not raise interest rates until the inflation rate exceeds 2%. We believe we can do it, we believe we will do it. This may take more than three years, Powell said. After Powell’s appeasement, the market’s risk taking sentiment rose across the board, and currencies that are expected to benefit from the rebound in global trade, such as those related to commodities, and the currencies of countries that are recovering from the pandemic, have been boosted. At the same time, the safe haven U.S. dollar is stuck near a three year low against a higher risk currency.

Outlook for the foreign exchange market next week Looking forward to next week, the market will usher in the overweight U.S. non-agricultural employment report, which will give a glimpse of the recovery of the U.S. job market. At the same time, a number of Fed officials will speak intensively next week. The speech is the top priority, paying attention to Powell's position on the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.

In terms of economic data, the overall data will be denser next week. Monday mainly focused on the final value of the Market manufacturing PMI in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom in February, then the February ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was the focus. Tuesday will usher in the initial value of the Eurozone’s February CPI, Canada’s December GDP, and Canada’s fourth quarter GDP; Wednesday, Australia’s fourth quarter GDP, China’s February Caixin service industry PMI, the Eurozone January PPI, and the United States’ February ADP employment. The number of people and the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI in February will be released one after another, with “small non-agricultural” being the focus; Please the number of unemployment benefits.

On Friday, the market will usher in the most critical first level data of the week the change in the non-agricultural employment population after the February seasonal adjustment in the United States.

In terms of central bank dynamics, a number of senior Fed officials will debut next week, including New York Fed Chairman Williams, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic, Cleveland Fed Chairman Meester, Federal Reserve Board Member Brainard, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Evans, but the most critical thing is undoubtedly the speech of Fed Chairman Powell, which will bring the latest guidance to the market that has recently been restless due to the surge in US debt yields. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate resolution next week, focusing on whether it maintains its easing stance. In addition, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak at the event of the German Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand will speak on the future monetary policy.

[Fxtechno]

Updated on 28 February 2021

Crude oil market review:

February oil prices rose by 18%, the US cold wave led to tighter crude oil supply, Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus plan supports oil prices.

WTI April crude oil futures closed down 2.03 US dollars, or 3.19%, to 61.50 US dollars per barrel, a cumulative increase of 3.78% this week; Brent April crude oil futures closed down 0.75 US dollars, or 1.12%, to 66.13 US dollars per barrel. Over the week, it rose 5.12%. The main reasons for the increase in oil prices in February were that the unexpected cold wave in the United States hit the U.S. energy industry, causing U.S. crude oil production to plummet and supporting oil prices. In addition, the global new crown vaccination accelerated, and the economy continued to heat up as expected, which also pushed up oil prices. In addition, the Democratic Party of the United States is working hard to promote more fiscal stimulus policies. The Federal Reserve also continues to maintain an ultra loose policy. OPEC continues its production reduction policy and is moving steadily towards the goal of reducing inventories.



U.S. WTI crude oil futures for April still rose 3.78% this week, with a cumulative increase of 17.8% this month. May Brent crude oil futures closed down 75 cents, or 1.12%, to 66.13 US dollars per barrel. Up 5.12%. The latest report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that last week, U.S. crude oil production decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day, the largest drop in history. U.S. refinery utilization fell by 14.5% last week, the largest drop since September 2017. U.S. crude oil imports fell by 4.6 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1992. U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil inventories fell to their lowest level since March 2020 last week. US East Coast crude oil inventories fell to the lowest level in history last week. U.S. East Coast distillate stocks fell to their lowest level since May 2020 last week.

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives plan to pass a $1.9 trillion epidemic relief bill, and legislators are trying to prevent unemployment payments from expiring next month. House Majority Leader Hoyer issued a statement stating that the American people strongly support this bill and we are moving quickly to ensure that it becomes law. The plan includes direct disbursement of $1,400 in benefits to most Americans, a weekly unemployment benefit of $400, and extension of programs that make millions of Americans eligible for unemployment insurance.

The plan will also issue $20 billion for new coronavirus vaccination, $50 billion for testing, and $350 billion for state, local and community government relief. According to the current plan, by 2025, the federal minimum wage will be raised to $15 per hour. The Democrats have taken action to pass the bill through its own budget settlement, which requires a simple majority in the Senate, where each party is divided into half. They argued that they could not wait to alleviate America’s economic difficulties while trying to reach an agreement with the Republican Party.



Oil price bulls squeeze the market to aggravate the rise. Rising for several consecutive months has increased the confidence of crude oil bulls. At the same time, as the price rises, crude oil shorts are also on the rise. If the price wants to peak, at least the interest of most short sellers must be dispelled. The current trend of oil prices means that the bulls continue to push the bears.

The industry’s rotation has officially begun to shift to energy stocks, because energy stocks recorded the largest single day net purchases in more than two years. On the same day, the bank recorded the largest net sales of US macro products since January 27, and ETF short positions recorded the largest increase since November last year.

The biggest short selling market will begin next month, when systematic funds, momentum chasers, and trend followers will generally fill their remaining short positions in the energy sector and go long. The air squeeze operation in the energy sector has already begun. These volatility control funds are some of the stupidest funds, so their actions can be foreseen in advance.