Lucifer Trading Journal

[Lucifer]

MT5 forum colleagues in MT5 forum. How is everyone ? Hopefully it will be healthier because we have entered the middle of the week, even though the weekly bonus is still not updated, but I still believe the forum admin is still doing the best for us all. Therefore, I never worry and still believe that sooner or later the forum will distribute bonuses as usual. Hopefully we all experience an increase in the number of bonuses as expected during this week. Do not forget to exercise to maintain fitness and health because soon we will arrive in the month of Ramadan, which means that a healthy body is needed to continue posting activities during the month of Ramadan.

Today I will share an analysis for the GBPUSD currency pair using the Daily and H4 timeframes. Hopefully this is useful for all of us.

"Bearish GBPUSD is still hampered by the 1.3800 support level"



GBPUSD Timeframe Daily Analysis

As seen from the Daily timeframe, the market conditions of the GBPUSD currency pair last night were apparently unable to continue the bullish movement. After successfully rising to the level of 1.3917, however, towards the opening of the London market the price turned downwards to a bearish path to the support level of 1.3800.

Today, buyers' troops are still trying to push the GBPUSD currency pair away from the support level. If this effort is successful then the next possibility is that the GBPUSD pair will reach the resistance level of 1.3900, but if later in the afternoon the seller's troops managed to break out the support level of 1.3800 again, the price of the GBPUSD pair will continue the bearish movement overnight.

Conclusion:
The GBPUSD pair is still moving above the support level of 1.3800.



GBPUSD Timeframe H4 Analysis

To see the conditions of movement on a smaller timeframe, I tried to observe it through the H4 timeframe chart. In the picture below, it can be seen that on Monday to Tuesday afternoon, buyers' forces managed to push the GBPUSD pair up to the 1.3917 level, but a few hours before the London market opened, the GBPUSD price actually moved down until last night its bearish movement managed to reach the 1.3800 support level.

We will see how the next market will react after the price reaches the support level, if the seller's troops will continue to dominate, the support level will most likely be broken down to push the GBPUSD price down to 1.3700, but if you get resistance from the support level, the GBPUSD price will go up again. to the level of 1.3900.

Conclusion:
Bearish potential is still blocked by the support level 1.3800.



Final Conclusion

• Based on observations on the GBPUSD currency pair through the daily timeframe and H4 which tends to move bearish, but because it still hasn't succeeded in breaking the support level 1.3800, I decided to do Entry Buy at 1.3828, TakeProfit 1.3900 and StopLoss 1.3780.

• If the price moves down and breaks the support level and touches Stop Loss, then I will do a Sell Entry.

[Lucifer]

it seems that the movement of gold doesn't match expectations. Because the price never got out of the high and low areas that were formed on Tuesday, namely 1727.13 - 1744.94 and only moved around the EMA 633 H1 alias has not been able to break this EMA line perfectly. Meanwhile, if we want to look at the H4 time frame, it seems that this bullish gold movement is stuck at the 200 H4 EMA.
Attachment 359750
This morning the daily open is at the price of 1736.77. The price seems to be moving below the daily open so it is possible to go to yesterday's support or low area at 1729.21 -1727.85. To be able to fall even further, the seller must break the 200 H1 EMA first. We can use this condition to place a sell order and wait for a buy opportunity around the EMA 200 H1 or support at 1727.85 with a target of strengthening to yesterday's high area.

Apart from gold, there are other pairs that are of concern, not gbpusd but eurusd .

Yesterday's price movement apparently formed a pin bar candle on a daily basis so that there is a chance for a weakening in this pair if this formation is confirmed. Yesterday's trading, it was hoped that the price could continue its bullishness, but unfortunately the price failed to break out the resistance at 1.1895. Earlier today there was President speech and also the FOMC news , which seemed to provide a positive sentiment towards the USD index which looked bullish so that it gave hope for USD buyers to dominate the money market again today.
Attachment 359751
Today's eurusd daily open pivot is at the price of 1.1866, while the price is still above the daily open and looks like it is trying to break it. At the H1 time frame, the price is still far above the 200 EMA so that there is still a bullish effect on this time frame. From yesterday's trading, the low and high areas were formed at 1.1861 - 1.1915. From the existing conditions, today a plan will be made to sell first on this pair. What sell

Congratulations to the fellow USD buyers! Because in the end the USD even posted a bullish trade yesterday, right? Thus the bearish scenario that was prepared yesterday failed miserably, because the USD Index was successfully corrected up yesterday. Thus for the short term, I think the USD Index will strengthen up again to test the EMA200 TF H1 resistance at the level of 92.65.
Attachment 359752
However, for daily trading the will still be loyal to support the bearish scenario for USD today. Because I think yesterday's linking is only limited to correction to fall back deeper from the resistance levels 92.65 - 92.80. Thus, later I will support the BUY xxxUSD and GOLD and SELL USDxxx actions. That's the trading plan I prepared today! And hopefully today the posting bonus will be disbursed soon so that I can execute the trading plan by looking at market developments, and of course taking into account the input of technical and fundamental analysis from all of you

[Lucifer]

GBPUSD analysis Friday April 9 2021

good morning friends!
How are today's developments in writing a post, have found a formula to get a green approve stamp or still like to be rejected like me, to be honest yesterday's post is the first time it can be approved, hopefully in the future you can get an approve stamp again hehe


TIME FRAME GRAPHICS D1

seeing the shape of the daily candle yesterday was not what I expected, because yesterday I assumed the price would fall to the support at 1.3671, and as we can see the price was only stuck in the support area of ​​1.3730, the possibility of this area is very strong to break. the daily candle ends with the formation of a pinbar with a long upward needle. pinbars like this give information that seller pressure is likely to be strong.
TIME FRAME GRAPHICS H4



let me continue with the h4 chart, it turns out that it is true that the support area at the 1.3730 level looks very difficult to break, you can see the candle several times making a zigzag pattern in that area. and this morning there has been no appearance of a bearish candle that could break the 1.3730 support. so it still can't be concluded that the price will fall or even go bad.


Conclusion : planning for today, I will try to open only sell options, even though the candle still looks a zigzag pattern on h4, and no break has occurred. because if later you wait for the price to penetrate the profit you will get is not so much.
I will take a sell option when the price has moved to the level of 1.3780 with a profit target of 1.3671, if it turns out that there is a bullish trend reversal I will just cut lose.

[Lucifer]

CONTINUE TO USDX

USDX is the central currency that traders will always ignore in analyzing any market, especially those that collaborate with the USD currency, therefore USD is central to referencing in an analysis as our addition besides using indicators that are our basic material in analyzing. , seeing the usdx this week is in a weakening condition from the area of ​​93.06 to 92.00 in this case, including a very large increase in 1 week reaching 100 points, but this week there appears to be a shift in the equation where it should experience resistance from buyers and sellers and it turns out that not always usd x currency will always give EFEX which is different in direction from the pair that makes a contract with usd,

for example for usd x in this week it experienced a weakening, aka the trend was in good condition, but the gbp usd market turned out to be during this week down to 240 pips, meaning that in both currencies there are controlling from the economic side where they are pressing each other but it turns out to be wrong. there are currencies that have their own source of strength so that it is difficult to give in, in the end it is the same as moving bearish,

GBPUSD pair is still in a bearish condition, if we observe the development of this week so aiming for open sell is quite recommended in my opinion, but before entering the market we just panatu first in the morning, if there is a good moment you can immediately enter the market but if you are not sure then You can wait for noon, but for a short open sell target first because it was at the price of 1.3675 or the lowest area yesterday, and if there is a gap down, you can take advantage of open buy until the gap closes. At a glance, today's analysis, hopefully you can get input from friends.

Yesterday, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims increased from 728,000 to 744,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims fell from 3.75 million to 3.73 million. Both reports were worse than analyst expectations. Today, all traders will focus on the dynamics of Treasury yields. Right now, Treasury yields are moving higher, which is bullish for the USD currency. The 10-year Treasury yield is trying to settle back above the 20 EMA at 1.635%.

If these attempts are successful, it may gain additional upside momentum and provide more support for the American currency. Traders will also keep a close eye on the AstraZeneca vaccine problem. It appears that the UK's dependence on this vaccine served as a bearish catalyst for the pound in recent trading sessions.

Technical Analysis

[Lucifer]

Journal Update
Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Good afternoon everyone, this Tuesday is the first day of fasting, you have to be even more enthusiastic about posting while ngabuburit. And today I hope you get a lot of profit and continue to get a lot of abundant fortune. On this sunny day, don't forget to increase your worship in order to get a lot of rewards and can increase the goodness during this month of Ramadan. Come on, now we will discuss today's analysis below.

EURUSD Market Discussion

The movement of EURUSD this week is still in its downtrend, the price continues to try to test the 1.1915 price but it still can't be broken up. and the price is still trying to go up further. It can be seen that on this Tuesday the price continues to make its downward movement again until it can break down the pivot. It looks like there will be weakness for today for EURUSD. well it looks like we will discuss more about technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

EURUSD Fundamental Analysis:

European markets have seen a decline ahead of the release of US economic and financial data. You can see that the price of German DAX futures fell slightly to a price of 15,235.5, the CAC 40 futures of France fell to a price of 6,092.5, and the UK FTSE also fell to a price of 6,836.2. The weakening movement of the EU is indeed a result of falling stock prices in Europe and the release of US economic and financial data which will strengthen its USDX index.

The American economy is experiencing its turning point this week. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke in the media that this was a result of stronger growth and recruitment for vaccine rollouts. But on that side the Covid19 virus still haunts Uncle Sam's country because the number of daily cases continues to grow. This poses a risk to the American economy even though it is experiencing good growth.

In Europe, the lockdown has been reopened with restriction conditions. Malls and restaurants reopen as usual on Monday in the UK after 4 months of closing down. But in the Netherlands, on the contrary, there are curfew restrictions and other restrictions will continue to apply for the next 2 weeks.

So for the fundamentals of EURUSD itself, it seems that it is still experiencing good growth. although the american data recovered soon. However, the risk of Covid19 will always haunt Europe so it is necessary to be aware of the EURUSD market.


EURUSD Technical Analysis:

This Tuesday, EURUSD has seen significant weakness, dropping almost 20 pips from its opening price. However, it can also be seen that EU prices are still in an upward trend. Moreover, it can be seen from today's opening that the EU is above its pivot and MA200 is still below its price, so it is better if we look for opportunities to go up.

[Lucifer]

TECHNICAL USDX ANALYSIS TF H4
hello good morning everyone, happy activities on Wednesday, April 14, 2021, no longer feels like it is already on Wednesday and already on the 3rd day of work time this week is already in the middle of the week , hopefully it can be utilized on the following day, on the previous day the gold and gbp usd market is still technically in a corrective condition and is still experiencing joy, while for analysis gold it is still targeting the pivot area on a daily basis last thursday then to exit the entry has not been closed alaias is still in gold sell and is still being left up to the target to the take profit area, while today we will try to analyze usdx by technically using h 4,
Attachment 362343
in the picture above is an image that I took from USDx and as we know, the current condition is still experiencing a slowdown since the 31st of March 2021, which means that the USDX market has weakened for 14 days and is still happening today, the current condition when using Technical analysis still leads to a demand area, which means that the price will still experience a further slowdown up to the demand area at 91.72, so I am still waiting for the price to receive a reversal first so that the analysis is easier than ever before,
Gbpusd
gbpusd, in this Lucifer trading journal, yes and to buy, finally hit take profit, of course the initial one was 1.3793, but there are separate blessings from the active sl and tp, because the account remains safe and awake. If without a good mm, it could be that the account will float minus quite a lot or it could even end up in MC because the movement of the rally up on gbpusd is quite wild at the moment and after some news has been released. and if we look at the movement of gbpusd on the h1 time frame, currently the price has broken through the resistance h1 which is in the 1.3730 price range, so for today and tomorrow the price is likely to move up to test the next resistance in the 1.3775 price range. I hope the target profit will be limited to you, and sis. and hopefully you are happier because you get a lot of profit and the risk is minimal by using this
Attachment 362345
TIME FRAME H4
There is something interesting this afternoon where we see the price starting to approach resistance 3 at the point 1.38103 even though if we look at the conditions it is still forming momentum so there is still a chance for the price to rise higher. And as I have read on the material, when the price is able to make a formation, there will usually be 3 continuation times so that there will probably be three candles that can create new momentum, the price will try to make a correction. Yesterday, we could see how the price left a long shadow but was unable to penetrate the low bollinger band and it only touched so that it seemed to be an extreme signal on the horizontal bollinger band.
Attachment 362346

TIME FRAME H1

The current price condition is indeed a sign that the price is already overbought by making extreme sells. So that the opportunity to go down is indeed open even though it is only limited to a correction to pursue some interesting levels where the EMA50 line is also the middle bollinger band and resistance 1 at 1.37644 points can be a stepping stone for prices to go higher again today. In a position like this, the trader is just waiting for the price to make a correction first. Not all traders are comfortable with opening a counter trend position even though the price is in a reversal state, especially in the technique which prioritizes reentry setup. Happy trading and hopefully it will run smoothly
Attachment 362347

[Lucifer]

TRADING JOURNAL UPDATE FRIDAY 16 APRIL 2021



Good afternoon, all traders, how are you? How was your trading today? Surely it is full of enthusiasm because there has been an injection of funds from sponsors that has made our capital bigger.

Alhamdulillah, after waiting for a long time, finally this morning the posting bonus that I have been waiting for is landing too. How much did you get? There must be a lot, because the landing was three weeks straight. Unfortunately I was inactive yesterday for two weeks so I only received one week for $ 11. Even so, I am still grateful that my trading account currently has a posting bonus capital of $ 50.30 which I can trade to collect dollar coffers.

For trading results, last Thursday I did not apply for WD because it was still recovering from the previous loss of $ 8 and had added more until it left only $ 16.50 in capital. But with the help of the posting capital that landed this morning I was able to recover my losses well so that I returned my posting capital to its original position, which was $ 50.30.

GBPUSD analysis Friday 16 April 2021

Today, GBUSD fell deeply after one day yesterday held in the resistance area. This sharp decline has enabled me to recover losses on my trading account

If we look at the GBPUSD chart above, it can be seen that when the price approaches the support area it immediately bounces again and creates a kind of bullish pinbar candle on TF H4, this could be an indication that the strength of the GBPUSD buyers is still quite strong. But in my opinion, to buy GBPUSD comfortably we need to wait for the resistance area to break first, because it could be that the GU will go down again just to test the support area.


GBPUSD for me this parabola is more suitable for detecting trend reversals and the previous candle price, parabola price 1.3712, candle closing price 1.3757 because the parabolic is at the peak of the closing price, selling is current and I almost forgot about other indicators of course like moving average, previous candlestick price moving average price 1.3697, candlestick closing price 1.3687 moving average put pressure on the price from above, so I will consider selling and once again parabolic helped me stop it, maybe today the price will still decline even though it is still sideways.

[Lucifer]

APRIL 17 JOURNAL UPDATE

GOOD MORNING

Hello friends, how are you today, hopefully you will always be in good health and enjoy the weekend again, hopefully today will be given smoothness again and it can be a fun day for all of us, how are the trading results this Sunday. got the maximum results yesterday. Thank you for my friends who have pleased to stop by this journal where the analysis and views of all are very useful for our discussion together.

Today I will discuss about the gold commodity where at the end of the market close it was closed with a significant increase. The macro argument for gold has also improved. And as gold is poised to move towards the 1800 level, many investors left some positions due to some extreme technical selling seen on government bond yields and it actually provides a strong backdrop for gold prices to continue to appreciate.

Gold prices hit a seven-week high at the end of trading Friday, and posted their best week since mid-December, driven by a weaker dollar and a sharp drop in US government bond yields in the previous session.

WEEKLY GOLD REVIEW
Gold lifted 13.4 US dollars or 0.76 percent and closed at 1780 prices. The day before gold soared 30.5 US dollars or 1.76 percent at 1766 prices. Previously gold fell 11.3 US dollars or 0.65 percent in the price was 1736 on Wednesday, after surging 14.9 US dollars or 0.86 percent to 1747 US dollars on Tuesday, and slumping 12.10 US dollars, or 0.69 percent, to the price of 1732 on Monday early last week.

GOLD ANALYSIS
For the movement of gold next week, the focus looks like it is still on bull, so the buy option can still be considered because gold seems to be chasing its new psychological area at 1800. Where this price also has a daily middle bolinger timeframe and has the potential to be pursued for the next closest gold target. But before reaching 1800, you should watch out for the 1791 resistance area where there is an Ema 200 timeframe daily. So for next week I will still vote for gold with a target of 1800.

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
Gold also received additional support as the US dollar index weakened towards its second week of decline, bitcoin prices slumped and the COVID-19 situation in Europe worsened. More interestingly, gold rose despite strong US retail sales data and a significant drop in weekly jobless claims.
- The yield on US bonds, measured by the benchmark 10-year government bond, hovered near a one-month low of 1.58 percent on Friday, much lower than a 14-month high of 1.77 percent on March 30. A drop in the 10-year bond yield below the pivotal 1.60 percent mark has allowed gold to break through a new psychological level of 1800.
- Heavy sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States on Thursday also brought gold back at least in the eyes of some as a safeguard against political risk.
- China's biggest gold consumer China has given permission to domestic and international banks to import large amounts of gold into the country, a potential increase in gold prices going forward.

CONCLUSION
So for trading in gold commodities next week, I still estimate that gold will continue its bull rally to 1800 where several fundamental factors are still very supportive of the strengthening of gold which is considered the safest and most attractive hedge asset when world currency conditions are unstable, even as a protected asset which is safe when the political economy heats up.

Please, all my friends who want to submit their analysis and opinions on GOLD commodity assets, hopefully this can be a useful and interesting discussion material for all of us.

Thank you and regards profit