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Thread: Farndus Trading Journal

  1. #91 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    USD/JPY Weekly Forecast


    The motto of real estate is "place, location, location." Rates, rates, rates is or should be the mantra when it comes to currencies. The value of yields for currency valuation has been obscured and then neglected throughout the pandemic year. However, much like a suppressed desire, the more you resist it, the more intense it becomes.

    Since February 22, the USD/JPY has gained 3.8 percent, and this week's losses have been maintained. The most instructive feature of the movements was their timing rather than their course. On Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, when US Treasury rates, especially the 10-year, were at their peak, the upward momentum was greatest.


    The 10-year yield reached 1.613 percent and finished at 1.594 percent on Monday, matching the nine-month high of 108.94. The spike to 109.24 on Tuesday started at 1.592 percent and peaked at 1.608 percent before falling in line with the yield. The average ended up at 1.545 percent, with the USD/JPY trading at 108.50. The $38 billion 10-year auctions on Wednesday failed to increase rates as anticipated. The auction averaged 1.523 percent, and the bond ended the day at 1.520 percent, with the USD/JPY at 108.38. The yield was 1.527 percent on Thursday, and the currency pair was 108.57. The yield rose eleven basis points to 1.635 percent (10:30 a.m. EST) on Friday, with the USD/JPY trading at 109.12.


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    USD/JPY Outlook


    The USD/JPY pandemic trend's sharp turnaround is observational. The economic data in the United States has changed. With yet another massive stimulus package now in place and the pandemic over, the US economy has a lot of room to expand. For the first quarter, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow track is 8.4 percent annualized. The key driver of the USD/JPY has been low Treasury yields, which are far below historical averages. Until anything unexpected happens, the 10-year yield could drop to 2% in the near future. The USD/JPY would rise in lockstep with US interest rates.

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    The biggest cause of the coming week is the Federal Reserve conference on March 16 and 17. There will be no legislative changes, but the first year's Projection Materials will be published. Any increase in GDP and unemployment forecasts, which is anticipated, would bolster the US economy's optimistic outlook and push the USD/JPY higher. Similarly, retail prices are an indicator of economic performance.

    Technically, the USD/dramatic JPY's growth over the last three weeks makes it vulnerable to profit-taking sales in the event of a statistical failure. However, with US interest rates on the increase, any USD/JPY drop would quickly turn into a purchasing opportunity.


    Japan statistics March 8-March 12


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    US statistics March 8-March 12


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    USD/JPY technical outlook


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    The USD/reversal JPY's of fortune was exemplified by its close on Friday at 108.35, just ahead of the 61.8 percent Fibonacci of the whole eleven-month pandemic downturn at 108.42. The level was a natural pause after gaining 1.7 percent in one week and 3.1 percent in two, particularly on a Friday in New York, the last market. There was no profit-taking at Monday's resumption, as is common at this retracement after such a fast move. The climb was simply resumed.

    Since the logic is so important, technical aspects have been secondary or non-existent in this phase. The US economy is on the verge of a strong rebound. The Federal Reserve plans to encourage interest rates to normalize.

    Treasury prices in the United States are also well off their recent highs. From November 2016 to July 2019, the 10-year yield was over 2%, and Treasury yields also have a lot of space to increase. Despite the Fed's efforts to keep the short end of the yield curve from rising, it will do so as soon as the governors allow it.

    The USD/JPY would rise in lockstep with US interest rates. Technical levels impinge when the rate motive is weak. The cross of the 61.8 percent Fibonacci on Monday is an example. As the 10-year yield moved between 1.6 percent and 1.52 percent , 108.42 became the base.



    The Relative Strength Index is overbought at 77.06, but its usual sell signal at this stage is dependent on US interest rates.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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  3. #92 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Silver Price Forecast


    On Friday, silver stocks dropped a little, pulling back from the 50-day exponential moving average, which has received a lot of coverage lately.

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    Silver prices pulled back a little during Friday's trading session when we had something of a "risk-off" scenario, and the US dollar, of course, recovered dramatically during the trading session. The $25 amount below should be important, as it is a big, circular, psychologically meaningful amount, and it is, of course, a historically supportive region. In reality, help can be found all the way down to $24.


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    Looking at this map, I believe it is only a matter of time before we see a rebound from here, so if we can turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, I believe we will be looking at the $27 mark, and probably the $28 level after that. If we smash through the $20 barrier, the market will most likely turn its attention to the $30 level. Over the long term, the $30 mark has proven to be huge resistance on many occasions, and it seems that if we break through it, we'll be on our way to the $50 level.


    If we transform around a split below the $24 mark, we might go down to the $22 level, which was also supportive. Keep an eye on the 10-year yield and the US dollar, as both are strengthening and working toward silver's appeal. With all of the stimuli going out, this has the potential to improve as all other factors remain constant.


    SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: AT MARCH TREND-LINE


    The future for silver may be determined by how things turn out at the retest of the split March trend-line. A break of a trend-line does not always indicate that a trend shift is on the way, but it does serve as an early warning sign. A pullback lower from here would put support around the 200-day moving average at 24.21 into play, but a fall below that level might trigger a greater down-move. A re-capture of the line could improve the chances of silver resuming its longer-term uptrend. For more details, watch the video.

    SILVER DAILY CHART (MARCH TREND-LINE RETEST IN PLAY)

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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  5. #93 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast


    The crude oil markets initially dropped this week, but both have shaped bullish candlesticks, indicating that the sellers are finished.


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    WTI Crude Oil


    During the week, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil prices dropped, but then turned around and started to show signs of life. As a result, we've built a hammer on top of the previous resistance standard. However, if we crack below the bottom of the hammer, it will transform into a "hanging guy," a very bearish candlestick. There's no denying that we're overbought, but, as we've seen in the bond market, nobody appears to notice. This sets the stage for another run towards $70, but sooner or later, we'll have to face the fact that we're overbought, and I expect oil to pullback.


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    Brent


    Brent markets are in a similar state, clinging to the $70 level like a hammer or a "hanging guy," depending on which way we break. Nonetheless, I believe a pullback of at least $5 makes a lot of sense, but I will not be a seller of this business just yet. I believe we do have a while to go before people begin to price in the possibility of things getting back on track, as the markets will be relying on "pent up demand," which is the same thing as hearing "green shoots" 10 years ago. Those green shoots eventually faded, and I believe the same will happen here, but not exactly to the same extent.


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    Dogecoin Prediction


    Cryptocurrencies had a strong year in 2020. As the majority of the market dropped, the prices of most cryptocurrencies soared or remained inside the range. However, the year 2021 seems to be very exciting. The price of Dogecoin and other coins, such as bitcoin, has skyrocketed throughout the first two months.

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    Bulls in Dogecoin have their sights set on $0.065 after breaking above a central technical pattern.
    The IOMAP model indicates that resistance is reducing, confirming the uptrend.
    If the price does not stay above the 200 SMA, sale orders can increase.

    After hopping off main short-term support, Dogecoin is doddering at $0.056. On the 4-hour scale, price activity over the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) will pave the way for gains of $0.065. Bulls, on the other hand, are concentrating on maintaining the uptrend by fiercely defending assistance at the 200 SMA.


    Since the rejection from $0.62, MemeCoin has been consolidating for the past few days. Bulls moved the crypto asset higher after seeking support at the 50 SMA, with advances targeting $0.065. Dogecoin broke through the 200 SMA but was met with an increasing resistance at $0.058.

    The unification was verified by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Furthermore, it has a bullish instinct that is likely to cause the price to rise. The MACD line (blue) must, however, cross and remain above the signal line.

    DOGE/USD 4-hour chart


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    IntoTheBlock's IOMAP model confirms the uptrend with good support ranging from $0.055 to $0.057. Previously, almost 112,600 addresses had purchased approximately 11 billion DOGE.


    Dogecoin IOMAP chart


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    On the upside, the resistance isn't as high as it seems, and Dogecoin might be able to crack through as investors expect a roll-up to $0.065. The model, on the other hand, guides our attention to the $0.58 to $0.06 range. Previously, nearly 7.1 billion DOGE had been bought by about 56,000 addresses. Trading above this level will open the door to major price movements above $0.065.


    2021 Price Outlook


    Although it is difficult to foresee the price of dogecoin with utter accuracy, it is wise to expect the most probable direction. Apparently, the coin was created as a prank, or to satirize the increasing number of questionable crypto coins. Its expansion, on the other hand, has not been amusing. It is currently ranked 10th in the world. The new price of 0.05 marks a 21000 percent increase from $0.000232 in 2013.

    The “joke” blockchain has been swayed by recent endorsements from high-profile individuals. One of the most important drivers of the dogecoin price spike is Elon Musk's sequence of tweets. Snoop Doge recently released an altered song, Snoop Doge, and Gene Simmons recently announced that he owns DOGE. 

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    Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD prepares for a technical breakout eyeing $1800



    As a bullish impulse appears, gold bounces off the lower boundary support of the ascending channel.
    On the regular map, the MACD confirms the uptrend in XAU/USD.
    If the channel's middle boundary support fails to hold, the bearish leg could extend to $1,650.

    In the face of a stronger US dollar, gold has continued to fall from January highs around $1,950. On the regular monitor, the precious metal has maintained market activity in a descending parallel channel. This indicates that the buyers were fairly militant.

    The lower boundary of the channel was crucial in avoiding damages from exceeding $1,650 earlier this week. Bulls were able to regain ground at $1,700 after recovery from this help, and trade ended at $1,723.

    If support at the channel's middle boundary remains, the emphasis will turn upward toward $1,800, which is a key resistance stage. Furthermore, as risk aversion rises, trading above the channel can cause huge buy orders.

    XAU/USD 4-hour chart


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    The imminent uptrend has been reinforced by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (MACD). This indicator tracks the momentum of the asset and measures its momentum. Traders can also use the MACD as a strategy to sell the top and by the bottom.

    Note that as the MACD line (blue) crosses above the signal line, it is advisable to buy or increase your position. Moreover, the indicator is deep under the mean line, which means rising into the positive region would be a bullish signal.



    It is worth mentioning that the uptrend will fail to materialize if gold fails to hold at the channel’s middle boundary. Declines toward $1,650 will come into the picture, extending the bearish impulse in the

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    Bitcoin Analysis And Prediction


    Good morning and Greetings to every beloved forum mate! Since the pandemic-related plunge in March 2020, Bitcoin has increased in value by more than 1,200 percent.
    Over the last year, the number of active addresses on the network has steadily increased.
    If Bitcoin breaks through $54,000, it will continue to fall toward $50,000.

    After the pandemic-related Black Thursday day collapse in March 2020, Bitcoin has risen over 1,200 percent. Following a dramatic decline from $8,000, the flagship cryptocurrency traded at a yearly low of $4,130. The time has been exceptionally successful, with Bitcoin touching a new peak of over $58,000. Meanwhile, the bellwether blockchain is heading for a new all-time high above $60,000, despite calls for a rally higher.


    The bull market has drawn a lot of exposure to Bitcoin, with conventional financial firms and well-known people from around the world investing in the digital currency. MicroStrategy has more than $5 billion in Bitcoin reserves, while Tesla recently added $1.5 billion to the balance sheet.

    The persistent rally seems to have been aided by the growing use of the network. According to Santiment's on-chain results, the number of regular active addresses has increased dramatically. This long-term growth is a sure indication of a demand on the rise.


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    Bitcoin’s uptrend steadies toward $60,000


    Within the limits of an ascending parallel channel, Bitcoin has maintained an uptrend. Over the last few days, the channel's middle boundary has acted as a vital support level. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is hovering around $57,400, despite the market's continued drive for gains over $58,000.

    It's worth noting that a sustained market action above $58,000 will catapult Bitcoin out of the wilderness and onto a course to new all-time highs. The 50 Simple Moving Average's difference over all other moving averages (200 SMA and 100 SMA) indicates that BTC is in bullish hands.


    BTC/USD 4-hour chart


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    If the resistance at $58,000 stays unchanged, Bitcoin will leave the breakout to fresh all-time highs. Overhead pressure would continue to increase, likely enough to drive the price below the middle of the channel. Support at $54,000 is critical to the uptrend; thus, if it is lost, major losses toward $50,000 would be caused.


    Bitcoin price prediction for spring 2021 and beyond: what to expect next


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    Bitcoin's developer of the "stock-to-flow" model, which is a closely followed metric, predicted that BTC could reach $100,000 to $288,000 by the end of the year. The model expected $100,000 by 2024, followed by a step to $1 million, but recent speculative activity may hasten the trajectory.

    According to Wallet Investor, an online forecasting service, BTC is predicted to continue to grow this year, closing at an average of $62,907 this year and rising to $76,420 by the end of 2022.

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    If Bitcoin will trade beyond the $58,000 highs this week, a jump to $100,000 in the spring is very likely. Short positions may be able to reduce their risks, while major buyers enter with the risk of losing out if stocks fall too far beyond their expectations.

    A more cautious forecast will be that the coin would climb past recent highs into the $60,000 range before reversing. After the market has calmed down, a leap towards $100,000 later this year may be likely.



    Check out our most recent video, in which David Jones, Capital.com's chief market analyst, performs in-depth BTC technical research and recommends a short-term trading plan for the coin:

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    While the cryptocurrency industry is now one of the hottest investment markets, it is also somewhat unpredictable. As a result, we advise you to do as much research as possible, taking into account current industry dynamics, expert advice, and technical insight.

    You can exchange BTC by contracts for difference (CFDs) at Capital.com if you want to try to benefit from market fluctuations without having to commit to long-term investments.



    You will benefit from both bullish and bearish market action when you exchange CFDs. You may either take a long position, anticipating an increase in the BTC/USD rate, or a short position, anticipating a decline in the rate.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Natural Gas Weekly Forecast


    Over the week, natural gas prices fluctuated, suggesting that a potential rebound is on the way. However, the rebound would only be transient at best.

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    Natural gas prices have swung back and forth this week, with the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) showing signs of encouragement. Of instance, the neutral candlestick indicates that there is no definite directionality in the short term, but in the long run, we must consider the possibility that we will be seeing colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere, which will kill demand for natural gas. The cyclical exchange, on the other hand, would normally send this sector to the bottom of the total spectrum. It would be a verified “double top” if we break down below the $2.25 mark. At that point, I expect the stock to drop all the way down to the $1.5 support level.


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    During a boom, I search for a chance to short this stock when it shows signs of weakness. To be honest, I have no intention of buying this business anytime soon, because the oversupply problems will resurface now that the freeze has ended. The latest spike in price was attributed to a supply freeze in the central United States, which has since thawed. Now that the market is seeing more liquidity, we should return our attention to shorting.

    Having said that, we've had four consecutive red candlesticks, so I believe it's only a matter of time before we see a reaching race. That's great, and I'm open to taking advantage of another selling chance, maybe focused on shorter time frames for a better entry.

    NATURAL GAS PRICE CHART


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    Natural gas prices are continually fluctuating, based on factors including supply and demand, temperature, and the feasibility of renewable energy sources. Natural Gas (NGAS) is a commonly traded commodity due to its low volatility, good visibility, and fair range.

    Read our latest Natural Gas outlook, news, technical, and fundamental research articles and follow the Natural Gas price map for live data. Additional details, such as pivot points and support and resistance thresholds, will help you make more educated trading decisions.

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    S&P 500 Weekly Forecast


    During the week, the S& P 500 dipped a little, but then rallied to new highs. The S&P 500 appears to seem to be attempting to smash through the 4000 stage.


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    During the week, the S& P 500 pulled back, but found help near the 3800 stage, allowing it to turn around and display signs of power once more. Finally, there is a market where the dream of hitting the 4000 standards is still alive and well. Since the 4000 level course is such a big, circular, and psychologically important number, I assume there would be some background noise in that area. However, once we crack past the 4000 handles, we would almost certainly be able to go even further.

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    Pay attention to the yield situation in the United States, as bond markets can be terrifying at times, but the market loves the prospect of buying dips in the longer-term pattern right now. With that in mind, it's difficult to consider shorting this market, but since the Great Financial Crisis, central banks all over the world have done whatever they can to support financial assets, with the Federal Reserve being one of the worst offenders. You can either be "false" or "profitable" with the information.

    Well, I understand that there are many reasons to believe that the latest pandemic would result in some kind of global catastrophe, but at the end of the day, you should note that financial markets have nothing to do with the actual economy. Liquidity is already driving the stocks higher at this stage.

    SPX500 CHART


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    The success of 500 of the larger firms listed on US markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq is tracked by the S&P 500 index (SPX). The S&P 500, also known as the US 500, can be used to track the strength of US stocks in real-time. Keep up to date with the latest S&P 500 outlook, reports, and research articles by following the S&P 500 price on the real-time chart.

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    USD/CAD Analysis


    The USD/CAD made a strong recovery from two-week lows, but it was short-lived. Bearish traders continue to be favored by the overnight break below a two-week-old trading level. To offset the bearish outlook, a sustained step above 1.2625 is needed.



    The USD/CAD pair regained positive momentum on Friday, recovering a portion of its overnight drop to two-week lows, thanks to a variety of supportive factors. The US dollar has regained favor as US Treasury bond rates have risen again. Apart from that, a softer tone around crude oil prices weakened the commodity-linked loonie, giving the USD/CAD pair a lift.


    However, the intraday uptrend came to a halt just ahead of a trading range support breakpoint at 1.2575. This is a pivotal moment for traders since it corresponds with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci range of the 1.3737-1.2521 slide. In the meantime, oscillators on the 4-hourly/daily charts have retained their bearish tilt, while oscillators on the 1-hourly chart have yet to achieve any real momentum. The setup continues to favor bearish traders and encourages the possibility of more losses.


    However, investors will want to hold off on making risky bets until the Canadian monthly unemployment report is released on Friday. As a consequence, caution is recommended before committing to any firm intraday direction.

    Meanwhile, any further advance could run into resistance near the 1.2600 mark (38.2 percent Fibo. level). The overnight swing high, about $1.2625, is next, and if it is cleared, a short-covering rally could ensue. The USD/CAD pair will then attempt to regain the 1.2700 range, with intermediate resistance around the 61.8 percent Fibo. level, about the 1.2655 region. The bullish momentum could be stretched still further, threatening the 1.2740-50 strong supple.


    The 1.2520 standard, on the other hand, now seems to be serving as immediate support. The USD/CAD pair would be vulnerable to retest multi-year lows in the 1.2470-65 area if there is any follow-through selling, resulting in weakness below the main 1.2500 psychological level.

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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