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Thread: GHM trading journal

  1. #1 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Default GHM trading journal

    Good morning, all my friends and my best wishes to the admins, moderators and also all members of the Indomt5 forum who I respect. Allow me to open a daily journal as a place for me to record and discuss together in all my trading activities, especially in terms of daily analysis. And of course I really hope that there will be input and suggestions for this journal so that I can further improve the quality of my trading.

    Alright, let's go straight for the technique I use, it's actually very simple because I only rely on the resistance and support area as well as price action analysis and also some classic indicators from the RSI tool. Besides that, I also use the 50 moving average which I function as a dynamic trend line.

    That is a little opening from me, and I hope that in the future this journal is not only useful for me but also useful for many people with a joint discussion about daily forex analysis. that's all from me and have a nice weekend

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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  3. #2 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Good morning friends!

    After spending 118 $ from last week was picked up by Emsi on Thursday, Emsi turned out to pick up another bonus for this week's posting which was disbursed last night of 103 $ as a result of my efforts to collect 140 posts .... hahahah. This successive loss is clearly very disturbing to the psychological trajectory of saiya, all that is really just an incomparable sense of regret ... hahhaa, the effect of wanting to avenge the previous losses, uh, actually makes the balance sold out again, you have to start from enol like gas stations ... Thus, as a good citizen of Indonesia, the part of Central Java, I will use these two days off in the Central Java program at Home Only to speed up posting! Channeling a sense of disappointment by doing positive things ... right lur !!! hehhe.

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    Thus, update this journal, my friend! Hopefully no one will experience an incident like what I experienced, emsi double combo is heavy, you won't be strong, just let me! hahahha. Enjoy the weekend friends! Especially for my friend , ....
    central Java provincial government program in Home Alone ! With the formation of a strong bearish daily candle on USDX yesterday, it might be the start of a bearish reversal for USD next week!

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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  5. #3 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Update No#01


    Oil Forecast:


    Fundamental
    Last week's OPEC + meeting ended with the following results:

    The cartel has gradually increased its oil supply by 1mlnbpd over the next three months.
    Saudi Arabia has resumed its previously voluntarily reduced supply of 1mlnbpd.
    The decision was quite unexpected. Some cartel members (Russia) were known to promote oil supply rollbacks, but most others were believed to follow a conservative and cautious course in Saudi Arabia. .. The latter advised when to test the market and see the results on April 28, when the next meeting is scheduled.

    But while OPEC's decision was the result of internal compromises rather than the true belief that demand would recover with confidence, observers are not pessimistic about the latter. Therefore, the upside is still a possible forecast area for oil prices.

    technical
    Currently, WTI oil is fluctuating by about $ 60. After reaching $ 68 at the beginning of March, it never came back. In addition, it lost more than $ 10 and later dropped to $ 57. Higher lows have been formed since then, suggesting that the downward revision may have ended. Lateral movements, as the technical pattern of the triangles show, could continue until mid-April until the bull took over and broke the $ 62 resistance.

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    Gold Forecast


    Fundamental
    News tensions and the need for new blockades in many states have exacerbated the virus again in Europe. However, it appears to be relatively stable in the United States, and market observers depend on the outlook for recovery. The latest NFP release, which performed better than expected, strengthened optimism and investors turned their backs on gold.

    In addition, high yields on US Treasuries have recently driven gold prices down. What's more, there are now cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a value of hundreds of thousands of dollars over the next few years, which seems to be a plausible alternative to gold.

    Together, these and other factors have created a solid reason for gold to remain on the downtrend and create new local lows. Will it change in the near future? maybe. But so far, the fundamentals are rather on the sideways bearish side. At least until the next US-China or another global geopolitical conflict breaks out.

    technical
    The nearly straight downward diagonal of the 200-MA shows that gold has already fallen for quite some time. To be exact since the summer of 2020. This means that over the last nine months, there has been a downtrend due to the occasional uptrend slightly above 50 and 100MA interrupting the downtrend. It's very possible, but we're currently observing the same scenario. In this case, what is currently being formed is part of the fresh highs that will soon show a downward reversal.

    At the same time, the support of the 1680, which was so revived rather than broken last week, suggests that the landscape pattern of the last three weeks could expand. Perhaps this scenario should be considered a major scenario until the Bulls push gold to exceed the $ 1755 resistance or fall below $ 1680.

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    Is it time to sell EUR / USD?

    what happened?
    Last week we finished with a higher-than-expected NFP, but average hourly wages have weakened. The number of employees in March was 916,000, but the forecast was only 647,000. Average hourly wages fell 0.1%, but growth was expected to be 0.1%. As a result, the NFP will improve but profits will worsen, so the US dollar will skyrocket at first but fall in the second wave.

    Inadequate vaccination development and long-term blockades in Europe continue to push the EUR down. Unlike the EU, the United States is in a much better position. Biden has announced a $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan, claiming a goal of 200 million vaccinations in the first 100 days. As a result, Treasury yields have skyrocketed. And as we know, rising yields will push the US dollar up.

    forecast

    According to ING, the EUR / USD pair could fall further this week. So far, support has been provided at 1.1700, but this week the pair could drop to a low of 1.16.

    Technical analysis

    EUR / USD is moving on the down channel. On the weekly chart, the downhill path is constrained by a 50-week moving average of 1.1735. If it manages to break it and then exceed 1.1700, it should fall to the November lows at 1.1630. Conversely, above the April 2 high of 1.1790, it could jump to the 200-day moving average of 1.1870.

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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  7. #4 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Update No#02


    Asian Market Brief, Wednesday 7 April 2021

    The US dollar still seems to have continued yesterday's weakening in early trading on Wednesday (7/4), due to the strong profit taking action of the dollar for the past 2 weeks and the decline in the yield on US government bonds.

    The Hang Seng Index has reopened today after the long Easter holidays and Tomb Sweeping Day. The market is also looking forward to the PMI service sector index reports for the European continent and the UK in the afternoon.



    Movement Opportunities:



    Gold

    Lower yields on US government bonds and profit-taking on the US dollar, have propped gold prices up $ 15.09 to $ 1743.22 on Tuesday. In the Asian session (7/4), the price of gold has the potential to be bought to test the $ 1747 resistance as long as it holds above the $ 1738 level. If it drops below this level, the gold price has a chance to sell to test the support at $ 1734. Potential price range in Asian session: $ 1734 - $ 1747.



    Crude Oil

    Expectations for global economic growth, after positive economic reports from the US and China, the two strongest economies in the world, have bolstered hopes of rising crude oil demand. Oil prices rose $ 0.40 to $ 59.19 by the end of Tuesday's session. In the Asian session (7/4), oil prices could potentially be bought to test the $ 59.55 resistance as long as they hold above the $ 58.85 level. If it drops below this level, the oil price has a chance to sell to test the $ 58.60 support. Potential price range in Asian session: $ 58.60 - $ 59.55.



    EURUSD

    Lower US government bond yields and profit-taking on the US dollar helped propel EURUSD up 64 pips to a high of 1.1870 late Tuesday. In the Asian session (7/4), EURUSD has the potential to buy to test the 1.1900 resistance as long as the price holds above the 1.1850 level. If it drops below that level, EURUSD has the opportunity to be sold to test the support at 1.1825. Potential price ranges in Asian session: 1.1825 - 1.1900.



    GBPUSD

    Amid tensions over the discussion of post-Brexit relations between Belgium and UK over the financial services industry and Britain's hesitant attitude to open an international flight path has pushed GBPUSD down 80 pips to 1.3823 at the end of trading Tuesday. Amid tensions over the discussion of post-Brexit relations between Belgium and UK over the financial services industry and Britain's hesitant attitude to open an international flight path has pushed GBPUSD down 80 pips to 1.3823 at the end of trading Tuesday.



    USDJPY

    USDJPY fell 544 pips to 109.72 on Tuesday, pressured by US dollar profit taking and falling US government bond yields. In the Asian session (7/4), USDJPY has the potential to be sold to test the support at 109.35 as long as the price stays below 109.80. If it rises above this level, USDJPY has the opportunity to be bought to test resistance at 110.00. Potential price range in Asian session: 109.35 - 110.00.



    AUDUSD

    Amid the weakening US dollar and lower iron ore and copper commodity prices have kept AUDUSD up only 12 pips to Tuesday's closing level of 0.7663. In the Asian session (7/4), AUDUSD has the opportunity to be bought to test the 0.7700 resistance as long as the price holds above the 0.7650 level. If it drops below this level, AUDUSD has the opportunity to sell to test the support at 0.7630. Potential price range in Asian session: 0.7630 - 0.7700.



    Nikkei

    The Nikkei ended down 600 points at 29635 at the end of trading on Tuesday, due to profit taking by market players and yesterday's strengthening Japanese yen. In the Asian session (7/4), the Nikkei Index has the potential to be bought to test the 29930 resistance if the Japanese Leading Index report at 12:00 WIB is better than expected. If it drops below the 29660 level, the Nikkei index would be potential to sell to test the support at 29600. Potential price range in Asian session: 29600 - 29930.

    EURUSD has the opportunity to move up while moving above the 1.1830 level


    EURUSD has the opportunity to move up in the short term amid a weakening outlook for the US dollar as lower US bond yields are on the back of market expectations that have lowered aggressive expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its policies earlier than promised. Furthermore, today the market will look for a catalyst from the release of a number of Final Services PMI data from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the Eurozone which are scheduled from 14:15 WIB to 15:00 WIB.

    Movement Potential : EURUSD has the opportunity to be bought in the short term as long as the price moves above the support level at 1.1830, because it has the potential to go up to test the resistance at 1.1910.

    Alternative : However, if it moves down to break below the 1.1830 level, then EURUSD has the opportunity to be sold because it has the potential to fall further targeting the next support at 1.1780.
    • Support levels: 1.1830 - 1.1780 - 1.1700
    • Resistance levels: 1.1910 - 1.1960 - 1.2040

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    GBPUSD has the potential to move up, targeting resistance at 1.3860


    GBPUSD has the opportunity to move up in the short term amid market expectations of the speed of economic recovery in the UK. Another sentiment that has a chance to support the rise in GBPUSD is the weakening outlook for the US dollar as the decline in US bond yields is behind market expectations that have lowered aggressive expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its policies earlier than promised. Later today the market will be looking for a catalyst for the UK PMI Final Services data release scheduled for 15:30 WIB.

    Movement Potential : GBPUSD has the opportunity to be bought in the short term to test the resistance level at 1.3860, break up from this level the price has a chance to go up further targeting the next resistance at 1.3920.

    Alternative : However, if the price is corrected down to break below the support level at 1.3780, GBPUSD has the opportunity to be sold , because it has the potential to fall further targeting the next support at 1.3720.
    • Support levels: 1.3780 - 1.3720 - 1.3640
    • Resistance levels: 1.3860 - 1.3920 - 1.4000

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    Gold Prices Have the Opportunity to Decrease Under pressure from US Dollar Liquid Assets



    Gold prices moved down at the start of the session Wednesday (7/4), amid increasing market interest in the US dollar as a safe asset, due to new news that there is a new variant of the Covid-19m virus in the US, and it is spreading rapidly. This market caution has resulted in market players holding back on to the US dollar as a liquid asset, amidst high hopes for a recovery in the US economy supported by a large stimulus.

    Market participants are also looking forward to the US Trade Balance report at 19:30 WIB tonight for opportunities to move gold prices.

    Trading Opportunities: If it drops below the $ 1734 level, the gold price has a chance to sell, testing the range $ 1720 - $ 1727.

    Alternative: If it rises above the $ 1747 level, the price of gold is likely to be bought to test the $ 1756 - $ 1760 range.

    • Resistance Level: 1747 - 1756 - 1760.
    • Support Level: 1734 - 1727 - 1720.

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    Oil Price has the Potential to Move Up, targeting resistance at 59.90

    Oil prices have the opportunity to move up in the short term amid sentiment of falling US crude oil reserves reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) overnight which showed a contraction of 2.6 million barrels. Another sentiment that has the potential to trigger an increase in oil prices is the prospect of strengthening global economic growth amid the increase in Covid-19 vaccinations. Furthermore, today market participants will look for catalysts from the release of crude oil reserves data reported by the Energy Information Administration at 21:30 WIB.

    Potential Movement : The price of oil is likely to be boughtin the short term to test the resistance level at 59.90, break above this level the price has the chance to go up further targeting the next resistance at 60.70.

    Alternative : However, if the price corrects down to break below the support level at 58.50, the oil price will have a chance to sell, because it has the potential to fall further targeting the next support at 57.80.
    • Support levels: 58.50 - 57.80 - 57.00.
    • Resistance level: 59.90 - 60.70 - 61.50

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    Nikkei index overshadowed by news of new virus variant in the US

    The Nikkei Index fell at the start of the session Wednesday (7/4) after news of the spread of a new Covid-19 virus variant in the US and a high spread in the US. The market's cautionary stance on further hampering US economic recovery from previous expectations has put pressure on indexes in Asian bourses, including the Hang Seng Index. The market is also waiting for the Japanese Leading Index lap at 12:00 WIB which has the opportunity to move the Nikkei index.

    Trading Opportunities: If it drops below 29500, the Nikkei index would be potential to sell, testing the support at 29300 - 29430.

    Alternative: In case it rises above the 29860 level, the Nikkei index has the potential to buy to test the range 29930 - 30000.Resistance
    • Levels: 29860 - 29930 - 30000
    • Level Support: 29500 - 29430 - 29300

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    Approved

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  9. #5 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Update No#03



    Asian Market Brief, Thursday 8 April 2021.


    The US dollar seemed to have strengthened again at the start of the session on Thursday (8/4), supported by hopes that the Fed will maintain its monetary stimulus for the long term, as an effort to shore up economic recovery, which was stated in the minutes of the Fed's meeting last night.

    The Japanese Current Account report this morning was released above expectations, and has helped strengthen the Japanese yen currency.



    Movement Opportunities:




    Gold

    The outlook for Fed stimulus support to sustain US economic growth and advances in vaccination has fueled demand for risk assets, triggering a $ 5.82 drop in gold prices to $ 1737.40 at the end of trading Wednesday. In the Asian session (8/4), gold prices could potentially sell to test the $ 1730 support as long as prices hold below the $ 1743 level. If it rises above this level, the gold price has a chance to be bought to test resistance at $ 1747. Potential price range in Asian session: $ 1730 - $ 1747.



    Crude oil

    Expectations for improving demand amid optimism for global economic recovery and reported reduced US oil reserves have propped up oil prices by $ 0.36 to $ 59.55 on Wednesday In the Asian session (8/4), oil prices still have the potential to rise to test $ 60.05 resistance as long as prices holds above the $ 59.00 level and optimism for increased demand continues. If it drops below this level, the oil price will have a chance to sell to test the support at $ 58.80. Potential price range in Asian session: $ 58.80 - $ 60.05.



    EURUSD

    Amid the strengthening of the dollar after the minutes of the Fed meeting which indicated that the monetary stimulus program was still running for a long time to support the US economic recovery and the progress of vaccinations in the European region had pushed EURUSD down on Wednesday, closing down 5pip at 1.1870. Amid the strengthening of the dollar after the minutes of the Fed meeting which indicated that the monetary stimulus program was still running for a long time to support the US economic recovery and the progress of vaccinations in the European region had pushed EURUSD down on Wednesday, closing down 5pip at 1.1870.



    GBPUSD

    The strengthening of the dollar after the reading of the Fed's meeting minutes and profit-taking has put pressure on GBPUSD on Wednesday, closing down by 86pip at the level of 1.3737. In the Asian session (8/4), GBPUSD has the potential to be sold to test the 1.3700 support as long as profit taking continues and the price holds below the 1.3760 level. If it rises above this level, GBPUSD has the opportunity to be bought to test resistance at 1.3780. Potential price range in Asian session: 1.3700 - 1.3780.



    USDJPY

    Buoyed by signals that monetary stimulus will continue for a long period of time to recover the US economy, bolstering interest in the US dollar, the USDJPY ended up by 10pip at 109.82 at the end of trading Wednesday. In the Asian session (8/4), a better-than-expected Japanese Current Account Report has the potential to push USDJPY's sell-off to test support at 109.55. If it rises above the level of 109.90, USDJPY has a chance to be bought to test resistance at 110.05. Potential price ranges in Asian session: 109.55 - 110.05.



    AUDUSD

    In the Asian session (8/4), a better-than-expected Japanese Current Account Report has the potential to push USDJPY's sell-off to test support at 109.55. If it rises above the level of 109.90, USDJPY has a chance to be bought to test resistance at 110.05. Potential price ranges in Asian session: 109.55 - 110.05. In the Asian session (8/4), AUDUSD has the potential to be sold to test the 0.7590 support as long as the price holds below the 0.7625 level. If it rises above this level, AUDUSD has the opportunity to be bought to test resistance at 0.7645. Potential price ranges in Asian session: 0.7590 - 0.7645.



    Nikkei

    The positive view of the IMF on the global economy and investors who welcome the advancement of vaccination have propped the Nikkei index on Wednesday, gaining 55 points at the level of 29690. In the Asian session (8/4), the Nikkei index has the potential to be bought to test 29860 resistance as long as prices hold above its level. 29500 and underpinned by optimism on Japan's Current Account data. If it drops below this level, the Nikkei index has a chance to sell to test support at 29430. Potential price range in Asian session: 29430 - 29860.



    Hang Seng

    Triggered by investors taking profits amid heating conditions South China sea has pushed down the Hang Seng index by 597 points and closed at the level of 28330 on Wednesday trading, after a long weekend for the Hong Kong stock exchange. In the Asian session (8/4), the Hang Seng Index has the potential to be sold to test support at 28000 if concerns over China's military tensions persist. If it rises above 28600, the Hang Seng Index will have the opportunity to be bought to test resistance at 28760. Potential price ranges in the Asian session: 28000 - 28760.



    GBPUSD has the potential to move up, testing resistance at 1.3800


    GBPUSD has the opportunity to move up in the short term amid a weakening outlook for the US dollar as the market digests the results of the US central bank meeting minutes released last night did not provide a new catalyst to move the market direction. Another sentiment that is likely to trigger the GBPUSD rise is the bright outlook for the UK economy on the back of the government's aggressive vaccination efforts which are starting to bear fruit. Later today the market will look for a catalyst from the release of UK Construction PMI data which is released at 15:30 WIB.

    Movement Potential : GBPUSD has the opportunity to be bought in the short term to test the resistance level at 1.3800, a break above this level would be potential to trigger further gains aiming the resistance at 1.3850.

    Alternative : However, if it moves down to break below the 1.3700 level, GBPUSD has the opportunity to be sold because it has the potential to fall further targeting the next support at 1.3650.
    • Support levels: 1.3800 - 1.3850 - 1.3920
    • Resistance levels: 1.3700 - 1.3650 - 1.3580

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    EURUSD has the opportunity to move up while moving above the 1.1815 level


    EURUSD has the opportunity to move up in the short term amid a weakening outlook for the US dollar as the market digesting the US central bank meeting minutes released last night did not provide a new catalyst to move the market direction. However, the increase is likely to be limited given that there are still concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe. Furthermore, today the market will look for catalysts from German Factory Orders data released at 13:00 WIB, Eurozone PPI at 16:00 WIB and the release of European central bank meeting minutes at 18:30 WIB.

    Movement Potential : EURUSD has the opportunity to be bought in the short term as long as the price moves above the 1.1815 level because it has the potential to rise to test the resistance at 1.1915.

    Alternative : However, if it moves down to break below the 1.1815 level, EURUSD has the opportunity to be sold because it has the potential to fall further targeting the next support at 1.1750.
    • Support levels: 1.1815 - 1.1750 - 1.1670
    • Resistance levels: 1.1915 - 1.1970 - 1.2050

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    Burdened by the Increase in Gasoline Reserves in the US, Oil Prices have the Potential to Fall Below the Level of 59.70


    Oil prices are likely to move lower in the near term as markets digest reports of rising gasoline reserves in the US overnight sparked concerns over weak demand for crude in the world's biggest oil-consuming nation as supplies worldwide increase. However, the downside is likely to be limited amidst the weak US dollar outlook and the IMF's optimistic outlook on the global economy.

    Potential Movement : The oil price has the opportunity to sell in the short term as long as the price stuck below the resistance level of 59.70, because it has the potential to decline to test the support at 58.90.

    Alternative : However, if it moves up to break above the level of 59.70, it will be possible to buytargeting the next resistance level at 60.20.
    • Support levels: 58.90 - 58.40 - 57.60.
    • Resistance level: 59.70 - 60.20 - 61.00

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    Gold Prices Rise On Support Of Correction In US Dollar


    Gold prices moved up at the beginning of the session on Thursday (8/4), due to the correction in the US dollar, which again strengthened overnight, supported by hopes of a US economic recovery supported by long-term monetary stimulus, as signaled in the minutes of the Fed.

    Trading Opportunities: If it continues to rise above the $ 1743 level, the gold price could potentially be bought to test the range $ 1747 - $ 1756.

    Alternative: If it drops below the $ 1730 support level, the price of gold has a chance to be sold testing the $ 1720 - $ 1724 range.
    • Level Resisten: 1743 - 1747 - 1756
    • Level Support: 1730 - 1724 - 1720

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    Nikkei Index Pressured by Yen. Current Account Report Helps Up

    The Nikkei Index fell in early trading on Thursday (8/4), under pressure from the strengthening Japanese yen. But the better-than-expected Japanese Current Account report helped the Nikkei index move up from the low of 29505 this morning.

    Trading Opportunities: If it rises above 29715, the Nikkei index has a chance to buy to test the range 29860 - 29930.

    Alternative: If it drops below the 29500 level, the Nikkei has a chance to sell, testing the range 29300 - 29430.
    • Resistance Level: 29715 - 29860 - 29930
    • Support Level: 29500 - 29430 - 29300

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    Update No#04


    Silver price analysis

    Silver prices (XAG / USD) rose nearly 1.6% this Thursday after long-term bond yields declined after the FOMC meeting minutes were described as pessimistic.

    US long-term government bond yields are declining today, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bills dropping by 2.21% at the time of writing, as commodity markets noticed the tone of the FOMC meeting minutes and data released by the Federal Open Market Committee board members such as Kaplan and Evans.

    The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, indicated earlier yesterday that the Federal Reserve needs to be more aggressive with monetary policy, indicating that the US economy has not come out of the woods in light of this epidemic amid concern that some form COVID- 19 was the less likely the vaccine could appear. His colleague at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, reiterated in a statement published by Reuters that "there is still a very long way to go", despite the progress in the labor market.

    Adding to the negative sentiment towards the dollar today was the pessimistic initial jobless claims report , which showed that unemployment claims rose for the first time above market expectations.

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    Silver price forecast


    The resistance level at 25.386 is now in danger of reversing, after the intraday breach on the active daily candle on the silver price chart. If the candle closes with a breakout of 3% above that price, the breakout is confirmed by this price filter and the entry towards 26.034 is wide open. Above this level, the barrier of 26.325 also lies in the way of buyers in the event of a significant advance that targets price levels 26.868 and 27.5032.

    On the other hand, the resumption of bullish pressure by the dollar will only allow silver prices below 25,000, with 24.569 and the 24,000 ceiling of the support area shown on the chart lined up as initial targets for the bears.



    Analysis of the USD / CAD

    The USD / CAD pair retreated after the sideways movement in crude oil prices. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency whose value is often influenced by oil prices. On Thursday, WTI futures fell 0.45% to trade at $ 59.28. $ 60 remains a key resistance level that oil futures can cross.

    The USD / CAD is also set to interact with the initial jobless claims data in the United States. Analysts expect the bearish trend to resume after last week's rally. The expected figure of 680,000 is lower than the previous figure of 719,000. Besides, the Fed Chairman is scheduled to speak later today.

    Investors are also looking to the Canadian employment numbers in Friday's session. The expected figure of 100,000 is lower than the 259,200 in February, which is bearish for the Canadian dollar.

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    Canadian dollar forecast

    On the charts , the USD / CAD is trading along the 28-day exponential moving average and just below the 14-day moving average. After hitting a two-week low earlier in the week, it rebounded to Wednesday's high at around 1.2634. However, momentum has wan since then, with sideways trading extending into today's session. At its current price, at 1.2605, it finds support at 1.2600.

    The US dollar against the Canadian dollar is likely to remain confined in the range between 1.2600 and 1.2620. If the bulls can push the price beyond 1.2620, then the next target would be 1.2647. On the other hand, the bears may push the support level down to 1.2589. Below this point, the target to watch is 1.2560.


    Analysis of the AUDUSD
    The Australian dollar is recovering against the US dollar after closing down on Wednesday. However, it is still below a 3-year high set in late February at 0.8000. This follows the RBA's decision on key interest rates of 0.10%. With the initial program to purchase $ 100 billion of bonds complete, the second phase is set to begin next week. Tomorrow's Financial Stability Review will shed more light on the country's financial condition.

    Investors are also looking forward to Australian building approvals numbers due for release on Friday. Analysts are expecting a reading of 21.6%, which will be higher than the previous reading of -19.4%.

    The Australian dollar against the US dollar also interacts with the FOMC meeting minutes issued on Wednesday. The minutes confirmed the dovish tone at the March Fed meeting . The dollar fell 0.1% to 92.34. In the previous session, it fell to a two-week low of 92.15. Later in the day, the Fed chief is scheduled to speak at an International Monetary Fund conference.

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    Expected ranges around the AUDUSD

    On the 1 hour chart, the Australian dollar is trading above the 14 and 28 day exponential moving averages. At its current price of 0.7636, the pair is likely to rise further and test resistance at 0.7645. If he manages to surpass that point on the upside, then the next targets would be 0.7660 and 0.7677.

    On the other hand, if the Aussie falls, the support levels to look for are 0.7620 and 0.7600. Further decline would have the sellers test 0.7560 and 0.7532.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    Update No#05



    Asian Market Brief, Friday 9 April 2021


    The US dollar appears to have risen at the start of the session on Friday (9/4), after weakening again yesterday, due to the increased US jobless claims report, triggering opportunities for long-term stimulus from the US Federal Reserve.

    Amid massive monetary and fiscal stimulus to restore the US economy, the US dollar was under pressure due to concerns over the country's long-term debt. But hopes of a faster economic recovery than any other major country in the world are helping market participants maintain interest in the US dollar.

    China's annual CPI & PPI report released better than expected at 08:30 WIB, could impact on the Hang Seng index and the Australian dollar, where China is the largest consumer of Australian export products. The market is also waiting for the German Trade Balance and Industrial Production report at 13:00 WIB.



    Movement Opportunities:



    Gold

    The sale of the US dollar amid rising US jobless claims triggered an increase in the gold price of $ 17.91 to $ 17553.31 at the end of trading on Thursday. In the Asian session (9/4), gold prices still have the potential to be bought to test the $ 1760 resistance as long as they hold above the $ 1750 level. If it drops below this level, the gold price has a chance to sell to test the support at $ 1746. Potential price range in Asian session: $ 1746 - $ 1760.



    Crude oil

    Buoyed by increased fuel demand optimism amid hopes for a global economic recovery that has propped up oil prices by $ 0.23 to $ 59.78 at the end of Thursday's session. In the Asian session (9/4), oil prices could potentially be bought to test the $ 60.35 resistance as long as they hold above the $ 59.30 level. If it drops below this level, the oil price could potentially sell to test the $ 59.00 support. Potential price range in Asian session: $ 59.00 - $ 60.35.



    EURUSD

    The weakness of the US dollar due to the rising US jobless claims data has triggered a 45pip increase in EURUSD at the level of 1.1915 on Thursday trading. In the Asian session (9/4), EURUSD has the potential to be bought to test the 1.1945 resistance if the economic data on German industrial production and trade balance at 13:00 WIB is released better than expected. If it drops below the 1.1900 level, EURUSD has a chance to be sold to test the 1.1880 support. Potential price ranges in Asian session: 1.1880 - 1.1945.



    GBPUSD

    Amid the UK medical regulator on Wednesday issued a temporary ban on the AstraZeneca vaccine for the under 30 age group and the weakening of the US dollar due to high jobless claims data triggered a 4 pip drop in GBPUSD at 1.3733 at the end of Thursday's trading session. In the Asian session (9/4), GBPUSD has the potential to be bought to test the 1.3780 resistance if the weak US dollar sentiment continues and optimism for the AstraZeneca vaccine returns today. If it drops below 1.3715, GBPUSD has the opportunity to be sold to test the support at 1.3700. Potential price range in Asian session: 1.3700 - 1.3780.



    USDJPY


    Triggered by the selling action of the US dollar amid high US jobless claims, the USDJPY dropped 57pip on Thursday at the level of 109.25. In the Asian session (9/4), USDJPY has the potential to be sold to test the 109.00 support as long as the price holds below the 109.40 level. If it rises above these levels, USDJPY would be potential to buy to test resistance at 109.60. Potential price range in Asian session: 109.00 - 109.60.



    AUDUSD


    The high commodity prices for iron ore and copper as well as the weak US dollar that triggered the gains triggered the AUDUSD to rise by 42pip at 0.7652 at the end of trading on Thursday. In the Asian session (9/4), AUDUSD has the potential to be bought to test 0.7680 resistance if the RBA financial stability review and China's CPI & PPI data at 08:30 WIB are positive. If it drops below the level 0.7635. AUDUSD has a chance to sell to test the support at 0.7620. Potential price range in Asian session: 0.7620 - 0.7680.



    Nikkei

    Supported by better-than-expected Current Account and Consumer Confidence and the weakening US dollar that propped Wall Street, the Nikkei index ended down 45 points at 29375 at the end of Thursday's session. In the Asian session (9/4), the Nikkei index has the potential to be bought to test the resistance of 30200 as long as the price holds above the 29860 level. If it drops below this level, the Nikkei index has a chance to sell to test support at 29735. Potential price range in the Asian session: 29735 - 30200.



    The Price of Gold Is Still Shadowed by Market Interest in US Dollar Assets


    Gold prices turned down at the start of the session on Friday (9/4), as market players returned to interest in the US dollar amid hopes that stimulus in the US would be able to help the US economy recover faster than other developed countries.

    Trading Opportunity: If it drops below $ 1750, gold price could potentially sell to test the $ 1741 - $ 1746 support.

    Alternative: rising above the $ 1760 level, the price of gold is likely to be bought to test the $ 1770 - $ 1775 range.
    • Resistance Level: 1760 - 1770 - 1775
    • Support Level: 1750 - 1746 - 1741

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    The Nikkei Index Down, Weighted By The Hang Seng Index's Weakness

    The Nikkei Index fell earlier in the session on Friday (9/4), weighed down by a sell-off on the Hang Seng after news of the US blacklisting 7 Chinese super computer companies, cutting market interest in Asian stocks. Tokyo's rise in coronavirus cases also weighed on the Nikkei index today, as the Japanese government prepares to impose restrictions on the region.

    Trading Opportunities: If it drops below 29735, Nikkei index would be potential to sell, testing support at 29570 - 29625.

    Alternative: If it rises above the 29955 level, the Nikkei index has the potential to buy, testing the range 30065 - 30200.
    • Resistance Level: 29955 - 30065 - 30200
    • Support Level: 29735 - 29625 - 29570

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    GBPUSD has the opportunity to move down, aiming for support at 1.3700

    GBPUSD has the opportunity to move down in the short term amid growing concerns over the UK's dependence on the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is currently concerned about its safety and supply issues. However, the decline in GBPUSD has limited opportunities amid the weak outlook for the US dollar. Later today, GBPUSD traders will look for catalysts from the UK's Halifax HPI data released at 14:30 WIB and the release of the UK central bank's quarterly bulletin at 18:00 WIB.

    Movement Potential : GBPUSD has the opportunity to sell in the short term as long as the price moves below the 1.3780 level, because it has the potential to decline to test the support level at 1.3700.

    Alternative : However, if it moves up to break above the 1.3780 level, GBPUSD has the opportunityis bought as it has the potential to go up further targeting the resistance at 1.3830.
    • Support levels: 1.3700 - 1.3650 - 1.3570
    • Resistance levels: 1.3780 - 1.3830 - 1.3900

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    EURUSD has the opportunity to move up while moving above the 1.1860 level

    EURUSD has the opportunity to move up in the short term amid a weakening outlook for the US dollar after the release of pessimistic US jobless claims data and a dovish statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last night. Furthermore, today EURUSD traders will pay attention to German economic data to catalyze further movements such as Industrial Production and Trade Balance which will be released simultaneously at 13:00 WIB.

    Movement Potential : EURUSD has the opportunity to be bought in the short term as long as the price moves above the support level at 1.1860 because it has the potential to rise aiming the resistance at 1.1970.

    Alternative : However, if it moves down to break below the 1.1860 level, there is a chance to sellaiming for the next support at 1.1800.
    • Support levels: 1.1860 - 1.1800 - 1.1730
    • Resistance levels: 1.1970 - 1.2030 - 1.2100

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    Oil Price Potentially Rise, Testing Resistance at 60.20

    Oil prices have the opportunity to move up in the short term amid reports that Saudi Arabia said its OPEC + allies could change direction of production policy quickly if needed. Another sentiment that has the opportunity to support the increase in oil prices is the outlook for the weakening of the US dollar. Later today oil traders will be looking for a catalyst from the release of US rig activity data reported by Baker Hughes at 00:00 WIB / Saturday.

    Potential Movement : The oil price has the opportunity to buy in the short term to test the resistance level at 60.20, a break above this level would be potential to further target the resistance at 60.80.

    Alternative : However, if it moves down to break below the level of 59.20, it will have a chance to sell because it has the potential to fall further targeting the next support at 58.60.
    • Support levels: 59.20 - 58.60 - 57.90
    • Resistance levels: 60. 20 - 60.80 - 61.50

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    Update No#06


    Technical analysis of the pair GBP / JPY

    In contrast to the performance of the euro against the Japanese yen, the sterling currency pair against the Japanese yen was the weakest GBP / JPY, as it retreated during last weeks trading to the support level of 149.60, its lowest level in more than two weeks, and began trading this week, stabilizing around the 150.42 level, waiting for any new developments. Given its role in the vaccination program in the UK, dissipating uncertainty about the viability of the Astrazeneca vaccine has led some observers and investors to conclude risks to the expectations of analysts and economists looking that the UK will top the list of economic recovery in 2021.

    But the price action on the continent as well as anywhere else in the market strongly indicates that the losses of the pound sterling were the result of a global phenomenon where investors took profits after a steep upward path for the pound before that.



    According to the technical analysis of the pair : On the daily timeframe chart, the return of the stability of the currency pair of the British pound against the Japanese yen GBP / JPY above the psychological resistance of 150.00 will remain supportive of the bulls' control over the performance and thus the buying operations increase to push the currency pair to stronger ascending levels, the closest to which is currently 151.20 and 152.10 And 153.00, respectively. On the downside, according to the performance over the same period of time, no stronger control of the bears will occur on the performance without breaching the support level of 148.00. The sterling will be greatly affected by the performance of global stock markets, the extent of risk appetite or not, investor sentiment towards vaccination and the reopening of the British economy, amid distinctive plans for vaccination against the epidemic.

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    Technical analysis of the price of gold

    Gold futures settled on a decline at the end of last weeks trading around the level of $ 1732 an ounce after its gains in the same weeks trading around the level of $ 1758 per ounce, its highest in a month and a half, and the gold price retreated, affected by the strength of the US dollar and the high yields of bonds. The strength also affected the stock markets amid continued optimism about economic growth on the yellow metal.

    According to the technical analysis of gold: On the daily timeframe chart, the price of gold is still moving in a relatively neutral range with a more inclination to the downside in case it returns to breach the support levels of 1733, 1720 and 1700 dollars, respectively. With the recent gains, the gold price still lacks the momentum to move towards the psychological resistance of $ 1800 an ounce, which is the most important for the return of bulls' control over performance. I still prefer to buy gold from every downside.

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    Technical analysis of the USD / JPY

    At the end of last weeks trading and amid continuous positive results of US economic data, the currency pair tried the US dollar against the yen, USD / JPY to correct up and failed to breach the psychological resistance of 110.00 again. The pairs selling operations last week extended to the support level 109.00 and stabilized at the beginning of this weeks trading around the 109.65 level at Waiting for any new. Renewed manifestations of the US-China row have recently boosted the Japanese yen's gains as a safe haven. The new US administration has not abandoned the tariffs that put pressure on China's exports, but rather has included many Chinese companies in the blacklist. The recent skirmishes have attracted investors' attention to what will happen.

    According to the technical analysis of the pair: On the daily timeframe chart, the dollar against the Japanese yen, USD / JPY, still needs to stabilize above the psychological resistance of 110.00, to return to move around its ascending channel again. As the breach of the support 108.80 will increase the bears' control over the performance and thus move towards stronger support levels and closer to them after that 108.45 and 107.75 respectively, which are the most appropriate to consider buying the currency pair again. I still prefer to buy the currency pair from every downside.

    The strong and continuous US pollination and stimulus will remain an important and influential factor for the future of the US dollar against the rest of the other major currencies. Relatively quiet moves are expected for the currency pair today, amid the absence of important and influential data in the economic calendar today.

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    Technical analysis of the GBP / USD

    Undoubtedly, last weeks trading was the worst in the movements and performance of the GBP / USD currency pair, as the currency pair collapsed to the support level of 1.3670 before closing the weeks trading, stabilizing around 1.3710, a level around which it also stabilizes at the beginning of this weeks trading. The Pound largely gave up its gains with the calm of the strong optimism that the Sterling benefited from in light of the progress in the pace of vaccination against the Corona virus, which paves the way for a rapid economic recovery in light of the strong competition between global economies for vaccination and reopening economic activity to avoid burning more stimulus plans if the restrictions of Corona continue.


    According to the technical analysis of the pair: up to the moment, the downward momentum of the currency pair GBP / USD remains intact and stability below the support level 1.3700 will remain supportive for the bears to move towards stronger support levels, the closest to which is currently 1.3655, 1.3570 and 1.3490. The graph of the daily timeframe indicates strong selling saturation levels, and therefore they are the most appropriate levels to think about buying now. On the upside, psychological resistance 1.4000 will remain the most important for the return of bulls' control over the performance.

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    Technical analysis of the EUR / USD

    Despite the positive movement in the price of the euro currency pair against the dollar against the dollar, EUR / USD, during last weeks trading, with gains that pushed the pair to the resistance level of 1.1927, but it closed the weeks transactions, stable around the 1.1900 level, awaiting stronger incentives to complete the pace of the correction to the upside, as the psychological resistance of 1.2000 remains the most important for the bulls. at present. However, the bullish momentum of the currency pair lacks momentum. Europe remains a hotspot for the spread of the disease. And global vaccination efforts, especially European ones, are facing obstacles to completely eradicate the epidemic.


    According to the technical analysis of the pair : Despite the recent bounce attempts of the EUR / USD currency pair, the bulls' complete control of the performance has not yet been completed. First, it is necessary to settle above the psychological resistance of 1.2000, while observing the developments of the infection rate, the European vaccination that is too late for the US track, in addition to the stimulus efforts. I still think that any EUR gains will remain the selling focus. The closest resistance levels for the pair are currently 1.1975, 1.2020 and 1.2100, respectively. On the downside, the 1.1800 level remains the boundary between the return of the bears' control and giving hope for a correction to the upside. All in all, the higher yields indicated that investors are increasingly expecting US inflation to rise sharply over the coming months and years as the economic recovery begins.

    The currency pair is not anticipating any important and influencing US data today, and only retail sales numbers in the Euro-Zone will be released.

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    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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