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Thread: HassaanAli's Trading Journal

  1. #51 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Weekly AUD/USD Analyses


    Technical look for the AUD / USD
    On a weekly basis, the AUD / USD is facing downside risk, but it will need to break down below the April low of 0.7531 to confirm a fresh move south. The head and shoulders pattern is still intact, with a potential 450 pips lower on the breach of the bearish neck area. During the mentioned time frame, the pair developed for the second week in a row below its still bullish 20 SMA. The Momentum indicator continued its decline below its 100 line, maintaining its bearish slope, while the RSI indicator lost directional strength, and is currently consolidating around 55.

    Name: AUD_USD.png Views: 170 Size: 78.9 KB

    On the daily chart, risk remains biased towards the downside. The pair cannot advance beyond the 20 and 100 SMA, which are converging in the 0.7660 / 80 price zone, with the shorter able to cross below the longer one. Technical indicators remain within negative levels, swing within familiar levels, and move slightly down.

    0.7530 / 60 area provides support, and break below encourages expansion towards 0.7450. On the upside, the pair needs to go first at 0.7710, then 0.7770 to return to the upside.

    Fundamental Analyses Of AUD/USD
    The dollar traded weak after upbeat employment data spurred demand for riskier assets at the expense of the US dollar and government bond yields.
    The Reserve Bank of Australia held a monetary policy meeting, but, as many expected, the central bank kept its three-year interest rate and return target at 0.10%. The accompanying statement confirms that policy makers do not expect to change interest rates until at least 2024, noting that "the economy is operating at a large surplus capacity and unemployment is still very high."

    RBA note: The central bank is concerned about rising housing prices. The central bank noted: "The rise in home prices (and to a lesser extent, housing loans) has accelerated significantly in recent months and is being closely monitored by regulators." Policymakers are watching the housing market closely after years of working to prevent a bubble in the sector.

    Across the Pacific, the US Federal Reserve had a lot to say about monetary policy these days. The Fed released the minutes of its latest meeting, which shows that politicians have agreed to keep current policies unchanged. The document showed that although they are aware of economic progress, they remain cautious and will pursue a very loose monetary policy until "more substantial progress" is made toward the Fed's inflation and employment targets. The slowdown in growth has not yet been considered due to uncertainty about real GDP growth and employment prospects remain high.
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    EUR/USD


    Technical Look

    A combination of factors did not provide any meaningful EUR / USD momentum on Monday. Powell's upbeat comments in a more risky tone provided some support for the US dollar. Panetta's comments over the weekend put EUR bulls on the defensive with limited gains.
    According to the daily chart, the bullish potential appears limited. The pair has consolidated above the 200-day moving average, which maintains an upward slope, while the 20-day moving average remains below its bearish slope. Technical indicators have returned to their mid-lines, where they lost their upward strength. In the short term, the picture will be similar as the pair continues to meet the sellers near the bearish 200 SMA, but stabilises above the shortest. Technical indicators remain unchanged, reflecting limited buyer's interest. Expansion beyond the weekly high of 1,1927 may push the pair further towards the 1.2000 level.

    Name: EUR_USD.png Views: 156 Size: 83.7 KB

    Support levels: 1.1890 1.1840 1.1795

    Resistance levels: 1.1930 1.1965 1.2000

    Fundamental Look

    By the end of the week, the macroeconomic calendar was weak, leaving currencies in the grip of sentiment, with the latter continuing to echo US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated that the massive stimulus will continue. Germany published its Trade Balance for February with a surplus of 19.1 billion euros, which is not in line with market expectations. The US PPI rose 4.2% year over year in March, which is better than expected.

    On Monday, the European Union will publish retail sales data for February, which will increase 1% month over month and decline 5.7% year over year. As for the United States, only Rosengren of the country's Federal Reserve is slated to speak.
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  5. #53 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Technical Analyses Of USD /JPY

    USD / JPY appears poised to continue its decline, although it will need to breach the 109.00 support level to confirm another drop. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is currently trading below its 20 and 100 SMA's, with the shorter pair moving south below the longer one. The Momentum indicator is rising above its mid-line, but with the price approaching daily lows and the RSI at around 41, the chances of a sharper advance are currently limited.

    Name: USD_JPY.png Views: 140 Size: 77.4 KB

    Support levels: 109.50 109.00 108.65

    Resistance Levels: 109.95 110.30 110.75

    Fundamental Analyses

    Financial markets are likely to turn neutral ahead of the heavy data, starting with the upcoming release of Chinese Trade Balance, US CPI data tonight and the start of the reporting season in the US, led by the large banking sector. Wall Street did not disappear overnight. The US 10-year bond auction went by without incident, leaving the bonds in a neutral position. The same was the case with the foreign exchange markets, although gold weakened with momentum temporarily weakening and Bitcoin continuing to approach all-time highs.

    Equity markets in China and Japan rose today in Asia, which was hit hardest yesterday. South Korea also jumped. Without any news, this suggests that the rapid cash flow was tense yesterday, and took the evening session because lack of news is good news, and I am turning it back on again this morning in normal herd behaviour.

    The first surprise today was China's trade balance for March. In dollar terms, the surplus collapsed to QR13.8. USD versus expected surplus of 52.0 used. Exports in March increased year on year by 30.60% versus 35.50% expected. The real surprise was the import volume in March year on year, rising 38.10% year-on-year versus 23.30% year-over-year. Imports grew in all areas, mainly driven by steel, industrial minerals, natural gas and crude oil, in particular mechanical and electrical equipment and meat, which rose by more than 25.0%.

    Imports grew impressive - over 25.0% from all Asian countries, but in particular, 41.0% from Taiwan, 32.30% from the European Union and 66.30% from the United States. The latter indicates that China may be trying to catch up with its demands for a trade deal under Trump. The immediate effect is negative, but looking at the numbers, you can cut the cake both ways. On the other hand, we can look at the export data as an indication that the pace of the export-led recovery in China has peaked since the Coronavirus. But the import data indicate that the export and domestic sectors are operating at full capacity.
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  7. #54 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Technical Analyses of EUR / USD

    EUR / USD rose above 1.1950, masking its 3-day gains. The US dollar hit its lowest level in three weeks due to BAT production, vaccine fluctuations, and a strong CPI in the US. The Fed survey may be happy with the recent encouraging data but it may not agree with the ECB's inaction on the need for easy money.

    Name: EUR_USD.png Views: 134 Size: 81.5 KB

    The ability of the EUR / USD pair to remain strong on the 200-day SMA, supported by the strongest MACD signals since early December 2020, the price is also quoted. However, before competing for a horizontal multi-level zone in March, the latest 50-day SMA from 1.1965 to 1.1565 becomes essential for EUR / US buyers, which is located around 1.1988-95. Meanwhile, below the 200-day SMA at 1.1906 per day, one can recall the EUR / USD sellers who reached 1.1835 in early March.

    Fundamental Analyses of EUR/USD

    In an extension of the previous day's losses, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still down near its lowest level since March 22nd. The dollar gauge declined on Tuesday after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data became more stable than expected in March, while the 30-year bond auction reacted strongly.

    Equity futures are declining in a clear direction, while US Treasury yields remain under pressure at around 1.62%, after dropping 5.6 basis points (BPS) yesterday.

    Pending, ECB's Laggard may try to paint a rosy picture of the block chain economy based on recent positive data. However, it does not risk benefiting from or supporting a stricter monetary policy. On the other hand, Fed's Powell continues to rate the latest numbers and acknowledge the decline in bonds.

    In addition to Laggard and Powell, some second-tier central bank policymakers are also set to speak ahead of the Fed's monthly badge book release. However, they may not be free to enjoy the markets.
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  8. #55 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Fundamental Impacts


    The oil market


    Crude inventories fell in recent weeks by 5.9 million barrels, compared to expectations of a withdrawal of 2.9 million barrels, due to news of a large withdrawal in product inventories. Distilled stock fell by 2.1 million against expectations of Milton Building, and a weak US dollar confirmed that oil trade is open for business again.

    According to the headlines, this was actually a bullish report on oil from the United States. The US oil complex appears to be heading in the right direction with a massive oil draw, which is much smaller than the expected gasoline accumulation, and finally a distillation draw. It covered volumes about recovering US demand and the use of inventories due to reduced OPEC supplies.

    Like OPEC on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for total demand in 2021. The new figure is .796 MB / day, which is about 230,230 KB / day higher than the last estimate versus an increase of 20.7 MB per day, which was in 2005. 2020. Estimated non-OPEC supply for 2021 is only 600 cubic / day, up from 63.8 b / day last year. Risks remain regarding public data concerns, but so far agencies seem constructive about the oil theory. As the market improved and stocks decreased, evidence of this was once again good.

    But, make no mistake, the world is still dealing with another form. Governments are trying to resist lock downs, but complex issues hang over the adenovirus vector vaccine. It's important to note that in-store simple vaccines like AZN and J&J are important in the global anti-trade off program as medical professionals continue to screen for potential side effects.

    However, it might be time for traders to pull back and make some profits. Higher prices driven by strong demand could ultimately lead to an oversupply of OPEC +.

    With oil prices returning to their perceived comfort zone (-60-70), buyers in Asia and even the US administration will be asked to keep prices under control because the last need for recovery is to get things done. Inflation is driving global production higher. OPEC + is well aware of this view, as Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak reminded us in early April: "Now it is neither too hot nor too stressful for the oil market."

    Currency market


    Indeed, after a bullish EIA report, the G10 commodity rose on the back of higher oil prices, while the Canadian dollar lagged behind its peers. In Toronto, losing deals and new closings are being traded against the currency, and the BOC in its decision next week is minimising the likelihood of a tipping announcement.

    And while the Fed appears to want to avoid any good things, the European Central Bank appears to be convinced. Frances Governor of the Bank of France, told Bloomberg this morning that the central bank "is likely to exit PEPP by March 2022". This sounds like a marketing strategy to me. Thus, markets now see the ECB's June decision from the ECB more productive and likely to lead to faster curves, as an interim debate outside of PEPP will be discussed.

    Therefore, with the euro narrowing the 10-year spreads against the US, this gives the euro a slight edge in the race to normalize policy.

    The rally in the G10 commodity currencies led to a rapid sudden spike overnight in the US overnight after the release of a report on a truly bullish EIA stock, so one can expect that this color will hold back the price of oil due to the rapid rise in the price of this oil. The oil and gas sector wants to improve.

    Gold market


    Gold has moved around the 1730 pivot area, the level it seems to be searching for forever. Gold remains broadly within the current limits, although the market is still in equilibrium. Besides the more balanced situation, the dollar's decline was a major factor of support. Although stocks have been acting as competitors for gold lately, stock policy at all-time highs encourages potential strong hands to return to the field in search of diversification.
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    Fundamental Analyses Of EUR/USD
    The EUR / USD is gaining bids after the first negative daily end of the week. Strong RSI, successful breach of 50-day SMA keeps buyers optimistic. From February 5, the horizontal line will increase fish support, and the bulls will have a rough road behind 1.2000.

    The EUR / USD pair maintains its bullish stance, which is still ready to challenge the 1.2000 level. The four-hour chart shows that the pair is rapidly stabilising above the 20 SMA, which provides support at around 1.1950. Long moving averages lack much directional strength from difficult passers-by, while technical indicators have lost their upper strength, but are stable within positive levels. Overall, the risk tends to reverse, although the pair will need to cross 1.1.2010 to regain its fast position.

    Name: EUR_USD.png Views: 123 Size: 93.5 KB

    Support level: 1.1950 1.1900 1.1860

    Resistance level: 1.2010 1.2045 1.2090

    Fundamental Analyses Of EUR/USD

    The dollar managed to reverse its decline after the release of US economic data, which beat market expectations. European stocks closed higher, while US indices were rising to record levels.

    The annual German CPI is expected to be 1.7% per annum. According to US data, retail sales rose sharply reb.8% in March, better than the expected 3.3%. Early job claims fell to 683K in the week ended April 9, beating expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 50.2 in April. Finally, industrial output rose 1.4 percent in March, compared to 74.4 percent in the same month.

    On Friday, EU inflation figures for March and February will come with a trade balance. The U.S. is set to launch building permits and residences in March, and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial estimate for April has been released, up from .98..9 to .6 at last month. was likely to stay at
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    Technical Analyses Of EUR/USD
    Momentum is reversing on the 4-hour chart and the currency pair is moving above the 50, 100 and 200 simple moving averages. The related Force Index has dropped below 70, allowing more buying conditions to be overcome and more profits to come.

    Name: EUR_USD.png Views: 132 Size: 88.1 KB

    Above 1.20, the following watch levels are 1.2025 and 1.2065.

    Support is awaited at 1.1950, a break of the limit, then 1.1925, then only 1.1860.

    Fundamental Analyses Of EUR/USD

    However, this increase in interest on US debt differs from the economic reality, as evidenced by the latest release of US economic data. The US economy is enjoying a consumption boom. In March, retail sales rose 9.8% due to vaccines, reopening and stimulus tests. Jobs are also improving rapidly, as 576,000 left last week with jobless claims.

    The latest major release for this week is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Preliminary data for April is likely to show continued improvement, leading to an increase in purchasing power. In addition, the March numbers for building permits and housing starts are still in place and likely to increase. In the United States, the "race for space" - the room for work at home - raises housing standards.

    On the old continent, French Covid-19 deaths have exceeded 100,000, but the light of hope is weak. Landings have been reported in Paris, and other countries have seen a slow increase in infections after the advent of vaccines. One in five Europeans received at least one shot.

    Despite growing frustration over the lock down, the anticipated selection of fortifications and the initial results of the campaign may strengthen the single currency later.

    Apparently, the US dollar has an economic advantage, but lower production and some European hopes balance out Photo, taken 1.20.
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    Technical Analyses Of EUR/USD

    The euro / US dollar is trying to recover above 1.1950 before the European Open, as the recovery in the US dollar is hampered by a persistent weakness in treasury yields. This is the basis for the EU to reduce concerns about the use of war vaccines and to support Fed expectations.

    The 100 SMA provides a dynamic resistance of around 1.2060, and the technical indicators reach a positive level. In the near future and according to the 4 hour chart, the risk is also distorted upwards. Supports 1970, and does not have the strength of direction in technical performance, but maintains a positive level. "

    EUR / USD updates its daily average to 1.1951, down 0.33% from the day before Monday's initial press time. In doing so, the major currency pair avoids respecting the volatility of the options market.

    At the end of last Friday, the change in the EUR / USD, the call reversal measure, increased for four consecutive weeks.

    According to Reuters, the change in risk reached the level of +0.025, which is more favorable for EUR / USD bulls. A positive reading indicates that the call option is higher (option price) than the bet or beer bet.

    Name: EUR_USD.png Views: 52 Size: 87.2 KB

    Fundamental Analyses Of EUR/USD
    The US dollar index has made impressive leaps in the past, as concerns about growing war infections around the world and uncertainty over the US infrastructure spending plan have not angered markets. However, the continued weakening of US Treasury yields has limited the advance on the green card as expectations for the Fed remain high.

    Emotions about the euro are still being confirmed with expectations of an economic recovery in the euro area as the release of blockade vaccines accelerates. Encouraging German industry activity reports and forecasts that produce bonds by December will be positive, and support for the single currency will also be offered.

    In the future, the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision on monetary policy, to be taken this weekend, will determine the other side of the globe.
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    Technical analyses of EUR/USD

    EUR / USD remains near the seven-week high, currently inactive, on the front leg. The 100-day SMA tests the break in the key resistance line, which is now supported. Bolish MACD, which trades regularly in SMA for more than 200 days, prefers buyers.

    The euro / US dollar pair was targeted in the US session in 2014, now it has direct support. A short-term picture shows that the bulls are responsible, although the corrective fall is not off the cards. The four-hour chart shows that 20 SMA heads are firmly above the taller ones, while 100 SMAs are finally moving upwards. The momentum indicator is in the positive range, while RSI has lost strong buying, which stabilises the near buy readings.

    Name: EUR_USD.png Views: 45 Size: 81.6 KB

    Support level: 1.1995 1.1940 1.1900

    Resistance level: 1.2045 1.2090 1.2130

    Fundamental analyses of EUR/USD

    Investors sold greenbacks as they struggled with the prospect of an economic recovery soon after the recession. This positive sentiment was reflected in the decline in government bond yields and new records on Wall Street, although as a result, wider movements were seen on the FX board. At noon, the US index rebounded, and Treasury yields rose, which was barely enough to stop the dollar from falling further.

    The economic calendar was short-lived as the European Union released a February current account with a seasonally adjusted balance of 25 25.9 billion. Construction orders fell 2.1 percent month-on-month in the same month, lower than forecast. The United States has not released economic data. On Tuesday, Germany will present the March Producer Price Index, and it will be no more important in the US calendar.
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    Technical Analyses for GBP/USD
    The GBP / USD is below 1.3950 below the ground level, thus spreading to a seven-week high. Is and is reopening optimism. The UK CPI does not miss estimates, and in March.

    After reaching the six-day trend on the previous day, GBP / US breaks out of the upper part of the day. During Wednesday's Asian session, looking for a new direction, looking for a new direction makes the cable easier from a day's high to 1.3940. To get a new impetus, we must follow the British inflation indicators, the risk catalysts.

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    Fundamental Analyses for GBP/USD
    The cost of living in the UK, as shown in the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be set at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday morning. Following last month's surprise fall, today's data will be closely monitored, with pressure to stop buying Bank of England (BOE) bonds. Of even greater importance is the planned speech by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey at about 10 a.m. GMT.

    Basic CPI inflation is expected to rise by 0.4% to 0.8% per annum, while core CPI is expected to improve from the previous 0.9% to 1.1%, excluding volatile food and energy. Depending on the monthly indicator, CPI can increase from 0.1% to 0.3% per year

    The Consumer Price Index, published by the Office for National Statistics, is a measure of price change when comparing the retail prices of a basket of goods and services. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the GBP. The CPI is an important indicator for measuring inflation and changing buying trends. In general, higher readings are considered positive (or faster) than GBP, and lower readings are considered negative (or higher).
    "Don't Raise Your Voice" " Raise Your Arguments

    Hassaan Ali Trading Journal


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