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Thread: Gold Oil Forex Analysis

  1. #21 Collapse Post
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    NZD USD technical analysis



    Yes ... All the desire of the southerners with their short positions was confidently knocked down by who bet on the further growth of the New Zealand currency. The trend on Friday afternoon was very confident on good bullish candlesticks on the higher time frames speak for themselves. Now, if you look at the H₁ time frame chart, the main task was to hold to back sales, buyers did it, the 0.7180 marks became a kind of springboard. Further, if we take a serious look at the chart, this is the Daily, then it can be seen that bulls have good prospects ahead, of course, not immediately with pullbacks, but at least excellent chances to re-test last year's maximum of the 73rd figure.

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    The tolerance of the southern pullback is quite possible, while we can issue it right from the beginning of the week, for example, the former resistance is the 0.7260 zone, after which the pair can again confidently resume its growth to overcome the barrier in the form of 0.7315. On the daily chart, the north's defense is support at 0.7130. Profits!

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    I agree about the level, but still I don’t look that far, up to 0.75 is still a long way off. As a part of the movement within the price channel, which I wrote about above, the price should not yet rise above 0.7360 and this, in my opinion, is the maximum, and then either a rollback again to the support trend line, or into a sideways corridor. In a word, I think that now even if the growth of the pair continues, it will not be so rapid and spoil us with kickbacks and protraction. This gives a chance to start slowly considering sales while of course without big goals.

    Entry

    Buy 0.7260
    Take profit 0.7350
    Stop loss 0.7230

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  3. #22 Collapse Post
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    Bitcoin technical analysis



    Yeah ... I managed to get up for sale on this pair. At first, it seemed like everything was neither shaky nor shaky, but what went on later was quiet horror. The price — flew up, so much so that already began to capture the spirit. And since by the , "greyhound” he got up without stops, then the result is obvious. After all, instead of catching, “moose” on time, I began to buy and buy more. As a result, Today, I closed all my losses on this pair, and for now, so to speak, I have sworn to work on this pair.

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    If we consider the movement on daily charts using the fibonacci grid with levels and waves. But now the pair has reached the level of 138.2%, and judging by the way it moves, it is likely that the mark of 161.8% will be reached. And this value will be almost 62,800 dollars.

    previous psychologies

    As you can see, even over the past few days, the Bitcoin chart has gone very well to the north, and now, against the backdrop of a very strong overbought, there are no signs of a stop or a reversal to the south, so the current levels will be in the area again from about 55,000, although there may be false breakdowns, since one tail has already occurred below the level, and there was no fall in the price, so for now I think you need to play against 55000.

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    Bargaining at the top, at high levels. 56250 — level 8/8, and saw it. We have already made a false breakdown on H₁. A local downtrend is traced from above. I drew it to locally already see the confirmation of the north, if that. But this false breakdown can turn the out to be false, no matter how ridiculous it may sound. All moving averages with different periods are starting to connect, there will be momentum soon. To confirm the south, you need to break through with a fix under the blue Kijun line, which runs at 55682.81. But the breakdown of the upward local trend line will only confirm the beginning of the southern correction. While there is a sideways flat accumulation, a triangle. Exit from it will show the further mood of the instrument.

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    The exit from the triangle is often given towards the trend. But sooner or later they also break. Here is the first scrapping and going down will confirm the serious intentions of the south.

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  5. #23 Collapse Post
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    Silver technical analysis




    Silver could not fall below the strong 27 level. There was a good puncture by almost 100 cents, but the bulls again very quickly brought prices back to the 27 level and even slightly higher. After such a failure, the bulls resumed the hourly highs again, which speaks of the strength of buyers. On the H₄ chart, the bulls closed the weeks above the cloud, they won. On the hourly chart, silver prices are also trading above the cloud. Despite the failure of the last trading week, we only worked out the support level and showed that bulls have more strength.

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    And given that bears have already realized their false puncture with attempts to fall below, you can use this spike and limit losses below the lows. Buying will give the prospect of re-growth to the highs at level 29. The immediate goal is to take profit on the break of resistance 28. But if there is an increase, then I would rather follow the trend and immediately take the movement to the highs. When silver starts to go, it goes through hundreds of points. But they didn’t let us down, so the next call could be to the north.
    This is just my opinion, I have already opened my purchases and will wait for profit at the highs.



    On the daily silver chart, it is clearly seen that the metal could not get out of the flat channel and buyers fail to break through the resistance line near the mark at which silver ended the trading week 27.144.

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    For me at this stage, the further movement of the lunar metal remains unclear. Perhaps the bulls will still be able to test the resistance line near the level of 28.962, but for some reason I am more inclined towards the bears and the southern direction towards the support line near the level of 24.500. I will wait until the silver is terminated from the beginning of the week, and then, I will make a decision.

    conclusion analysis

    I think we'll do a little rollback first! Silver ends the trading week near the 27.00 area. Quotes continue to move within the correction and the upward channel. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend for the pair. Prices went up from the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from metal buyers, and a potential continuation of growth from the current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a minor correction in the value of the asset and a test of the support level near the area of ​​25.95. Further, the continued growth in the price of Silver with a potential target at the level of 29.20. In the favor of the growth of quotes and prices for Silver in the current trading week on February 22–26, 2021, a rebound from the support line on the relative strength index (RSI) will come out.

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    The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the ascending channel. Cancellation of the option to raise the silver quotes will be a fall and a breakdown of the 24.90 area. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area and a continued fall in Silver, prices with a target below 22.50.


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  7. #24 Collapse Post
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    EUR USD technical analysis




    1).The pair opened exactly, only in the intervening time there were no special movements. Although to a greater extent I look towards the fall, I do not exclude all the same a slight overshoot in the pair to the zone of 2150-2170, which will be within the upper range of the triangle. I think the North can be considered only when it is consolidated above 2190, but it is not a fact that growth will continue for a long time after that.
    While I hold the five-short short and transferred it to the boo, if they throw up, then, I will re-enter again. From the current ones, there are no good signals for me to open a long, somehow everything is 50/50.

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    I would say — uncertainty. It seems that we threw off a bit of longs, but after that we went down, and then up, in short, here I unfortunately don't see a clear signal, but at least they didn't buy. On Friday night futures, the last hand was the seller's. So, I would say that he has some plans, just what? In the order book, it would be necessary to get under 1.2090 to have a chance to go to the 1.2036 area Above, by the way, the seller is waiting for the price at the level 1.2185, and if we go there, according to the idea, he should show himself there.

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    2).Physicists sold on Friday, but in general they have more purchases than shorts. At the same time, both longs and shorts were dropped by the jury of the face. In short, there is no trend here, a more flat report. In the options market, there is a draw with a slight advantage in the favor of sellers, if we start from the idea that when there are more calls, we are going down. But this is only for Friday, plus an insignificant advantage, but in general, concerning the total volume, everything is vice versa.

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    Foundation

    The consumer price index has grown, which once again informs us about the upcoming acceleration of inflation, which actually reacted to the debt market recently. Unemployment in the same place that is, high, in principle it is clear what is the point of working, if they will give money anyway.
    There is nothing more to say, except that I want to draw your attention to the fact that Grandpa Buffett is coming out of a whole heap of shares and Ray Dario seems to have completely left the Tesla, like Musk's brother, who sells his share on highs, amid Elon's hoot about bitcoins and other bullshit.

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    Findings

    It turns out in technique and psychology, it looks more like a flat. And if we take into account that we are at the top, then there are more chances to go down even though the cross, but on the foundation, globally, they have been waiting for us for a long time too, but the truth in time is not yet clear when exactly the big play for a fall will come.

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  9. #25 Collapse Post
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    GBP USD technical analysis



    I wasn’t on the forum yesterday, so how do I know what you wrote.
    In any case, the point (I designated it as the M 30 border) has already hung up, and it's too late to buy, at least for me.
    And I just have to face the financial department, I don't understand what is happening in general, first they give it, they say that everything is ok, and then they returned the transaction. I'm thinking of writing a statement about changing the details, but I'll deal with these questions a little later.

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    The end of Friday last week foreshadowed a decline in the pound by 50-80 points (in principle, we saw a rebound of 50 points), but all the same, this Briton got up like a lump in my throat. According to M 30, he is now in a narrow range, and if the upper border is broken. It will resume the northern movement, thereby renewing the high again. Even now, a "reserve" for further growth is visible, apparently the bulls are trying hard to push the pound with their perseverance. But we will most likely not see 1.3950 today, there will definitely not be enough momentum, and there is no serious news that could change the course of events for today.

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    And then there will be a boom in pound growth. Because they buy it on hearsay.
    And rumors are supported by such news here ... Which ultimately affects the growth of the pair. But for me, this is how signs of a reversal appeared, at first we had a false takeaway,
    I will now show where — the first was a false takeout of bulls, because they knocked down 1,400, from where the bull was buying, and then knocked down the seller from 4050.

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    However,, on H₄ I'm talking about a pin bar he was already talking today — so, he turned out to be a true indicator of the strength of bulls.

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  11. #26 Collapse Post
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    USD JPY currency pair technical analysis



    The trading situation changed incredibly much yesterday during the day, so, I recommend starting your technical analysis by looking at the direct price movement, First, the trades opened with us and the price jumped 40 points up, Yesterday, I examined in detail the essence of this moment, on H₁ they came to a bullish two-fractal system, including I want to say that its main algorithm of action, of course, has not been worked out, the price under the influence of the Price Action method, as well as the candlestick combination, "evening star” literally collapsed and worked automatically absolutely all intraday pivots that were planned for Tuesday they are now positioned as follows: Daily — 105.30, bullish — 105.61, further only downward, bearish — 104.75 and 104.43, I think the built horizontal channel is quite working, and now it is recommended to calculate how many bears were given by the Market, the fall started from 105.84 and now we are at 104.92, that is, more than 90 points, so the day was surprisingly quite presentable and profitable for sellers, by the way, if you tighten the Fibonacci grid.

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    Then we will see the breakout of the classic, "a hundred square meters” and the next target 161.8, in general, there is still much to go down, besides, on H₄ we have a bearish two-fractal lower, which can easily lead to the development of a bearish two-fractal (red candle "with an exit to 104 figures, where still market debt.


    The yen paired with the US dollar is still within the descending channel, and it seems like a descent from its upper border has begun. However, for now, the decline has stopped, as the price is stuck in the area of ​​the middle Bollinger band in the daily timeframe, that is, around 105.

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    At the same time, the RSI with the stochastic began to bend upward, and a bullish butterfly was formed. Accordingly, an upward pullback is quite possible, somewhere closer to the middle Bollinger band, to the area of ​​105.50. Let's see from it, or a reversal and a decline is already somewhere at 104, there is a lower Bollinger band in the daily time frame. Or, if the price breaks above the Bollinger average, then the rise is already somewhere at 106.20, that is, to the first maximum of the butterfly.
    Although, it is quite possible that the decline will go immediately today, almost without a rollback, so while we wait.

    Rejected

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    Gold analysis and nonfarm payroll




    Hi! Now is the time to watch, but as I understand it, not so long. For now, I suppose the gold can grow to 1832 and from there I will already see what to do next, but I still believe that I will sell there. Again, do not forget the fact that I rely on the D1 chart, and it is quite slowing. And we can quite reach the US nonfarm payroll, by the way, to which there is not much time left. I am silent about those events for the time being, as they will not be relatively soon. On the whole, I look downward.

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    I don't know, I've seen him for a couple of days too. Celebrating, probably
    Good day! And look, it turns out interestingly that the level that is not your level shows that a full-fledged rebound has taken place, but the level that is the level - says that the price of the breakout will go. But I think that when it comes to new extremes over a long period, for example, in this case, we have a minimum price for seven months, not to say that it is not enough. Then it is worth paying attention even to where the price was on the minute chart, everything is Still, history is being made before our very eyes, on the other hand, and why is a quarter worse than half a year, and even month to month — years are collected.

    conclusion

    In general, I think that When are we going to average something, it should concern the entire spectrum, i.e. e. opening a position can also be carried out, for example, if the price bounced by $50, then the rebound is true, and less — perhaps a rebound, especially for the daily chart.

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    And at the moment,
    And for goals you can take 1962, everything else is not even included in the quarter, so since we bounced here, then it goes to the opposite. I, in turn, will go down to the hourly charts and wait for the price to first go down somewhere. And the level lies somewhere in the area of ​​1793, and already from it, you can catch new zigzags along a new trend.

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    crude oil analysis



    1).They dump everyone if you do not follow the rules of money management, and news about bankrupt large hedge funds periodically suggests that even big guys sometimes play for everything.

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    So far, with sales, everything is more or less in order, today there were two short trades closed with a plus and while out of the market, I suppose that there will still be an entry to the north, there I will still sell interesting prices for everything above 62.10, I think that tomorrow we again we will be at these lines, the bulls still have the illusion of climbing to 65-67, but so far this is not realistic.



    2).True, no one is immune from unforeseen frauds, especially when you sleep, I am always afraid of the Asian session, I have not had a lot of experience with it, when there is movement for more than a couple of months during the night, it's just awful. I also think they can still try to raise to 62.05-62.35 and from there they will again give a wave down to the area of ​​60.40-60, or I will try to raise it higher, although for me this is also a plus, it will be possible to sell at a higher price, let them go to 64-65, I will only be glad to get up there in sales.

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    Many people not only see 65-67-70, but even 75-80-90, as one of the American banks has already said, we entered a cycle of strong growth, where the goal will be 100 and above, that's who really looks into the future, and not waste time on trifles 65-67.



    3).Hey! Our volumes fit well into the pockets of a bunch of serious traders, banks and various funds. After all, too many movements now do not converge either with logic, or with technology, or with foundations. While oil is not among such instruments, after working off 63.13, a small pullback began. Nowhere has production been restored so as to raise global demand. Where it grew, there were problems with the spending of the population, which would negatively affect the enterprises as a result. Moreover, the overbought state makes itself felt. Oil has been in even worse situations, but the prerequisites there were of a different nature. For stable work now you need to go down.

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    Once we have chosen a week for work, then our goal is at 56.59. Nothing has changed dramatically since last week, it's not for nothing that I haven't been here for a long time.

    conclusion

    Inside the day, you can find fault with the picture. Like, after a strong growth, they stopped in a rollback at support. Indeed, visually it seems that the possibility of continued growth is gaining momentum. But here you need to confirm or exclude such a possibility. 61.12 there is a level below, an exit below it will have a good effect on the sellers' mood.

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    As well as an attempt to rise above 62.15 on buyers. We continue to monitor the industry, we will try to find a clear connection and reaction.


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    Silver price technical analysis



    Of course, as you can see now we have a clear upward movement, although there was such a beautiful short initiative, but as they say it was a long time ago. And here it is also worth noting that Powell did not say anything particularly new yesterday, and the monetary policy remains the same, although it was said that they would not be afraid if inflation goes above 2%. But the essence is nothing new and the dollar is still under pressure.
    In general, as mentioned, we still have a confident upward movement, but the honor of saying there is no desire to buy, although I believe that we can again climb into the 28-28.300 area and in this case I will still look for sale signals, at least within the framework of a pullback.

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    Silver calmly survived this night, and it is clear that the bulls have no strength, although the dollar was falling. Therefore, I only consider the decline in this metal. Although it is necessary, it does not bring much profit to investors, who increasingly prefer stocks with dividends. This instrument is also not particularly suitable as an asset as a shelter, therefore a smooth decline in the main scenario in the medium term. You can take from the current ones, where the stop will be at 28.30. Going upwards is clearly in triples of premiums, and nothing will work out for the north.

    conclusion

    I also think north, but expect a slight rollback! Silver quotes continue to move as a part of the correction and the formation of an inverted, “Head and Shoulders” pattern. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend. Prices went up from the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from buyers of the asset and a potential continuation of the rise in value from the current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a decrease in the value of the metal, and a test of the support level near the area of ​​27.35. Where can we expect a rebound and continued growth in the price of Silver with a target above the level of 29.00. An additional signal in favor of raising quotes and prices for silver will be a test of the support line on the relative strength index (RSI).

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    The second signal in favor of growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the ascending channel. Cancellation of the option of rising prices for Silver on February 24, 2021, will be a fall and a breakdown of 25.50. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area and a continued fall to the area below the level of 22.85.

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    Bitcoin technical analysis



    1).The cryptocurrency pair Bitcoin against the US dollar on the daily chart shows a decline.
    What we see on the indicators: the
    currency pair remains below the 13th exponential moving average, the
    histogram of the AO indicator is red for the second time in a row,
    the Stochastic indicator falls into the oversold zone,
    the Parabolic Sar indicator continues to be above the candles.
    This indicates a continued decline in the price towards the 50 EMA at 40882.29.

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    2).I strongly believe in the Hammer and its inverted counterpart. In many markets, these works in most cases. In about 60 percent of transactions. As for Bitcoin, I would say that it does not work here in 60, percent of cases. Maybe I don’t understand something, because I practice the pyramiding style exclusively in the stock market. There I achieved tremendous results. For example, from $200 it went up to $19,000. And this is the true truth. Is this possible here?


    3).Taking into account the fact that very strong levels were formed at both 10,000 and 13,000 approximately, and of course at the level of the previous maximum — approximately at our terminal 18,500, and then already in this new growth, their levels were formed, which are also not weak in the range 30,000 – 40,000, I do not plan at all that ever, in principle, Bitcoin will be able to fall below 10,000. I think this is already in the distant past. Such a fall is akin to collapse. The maximum in the fall I think is possible here, these 13,000, well, in the edge — 10,000 but not lower. Although 10,000 is extremely unlikely.

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    I think a drop to 30,000 is most likely, probably to the level of the last high which is quite reasonable. Very briefly, we can go below.
    But again — this is not soon, and not a fact that it will be. As long as we have actual levels of 30,000 – 40,000, and until they are broken, guessing for the future is the same as guessing on the coffee grounds.

    conclusion

    Bitcoin behaves inappropriately, although this is common. Bitcoin has behaved worse. There was a time when it fell from $19,500 to $3,000. Bitcoin is close to new highs, but this does not mean that the chart will break through the resistance level and go even higher. When reaching new highs, you can risk buying games.

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    A local maximum can also occur with a false breakout. False breakdowns are becoming more and more common in today's market. Bitcoin - I'm on the sidelines. But the Bitcoin goes to $190000.

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