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Thread: Ali Waris Trading Journal

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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    The European currency, the US dollar, has been flat for the past three weeks. Despite a dramatic drop this Thursday. It cannot be called a classic flat. However, prices are minimal. At the same time, the pair improved slightly compared to the last round of the upward movement. However, this correction is very weak. This weekend, we realized once again that the bears are very weak, and the dollar is looking for a reason to keep falling. In principle, it will fall even without economic data. However, economic data, which traders interpret primarily against the US currency, also helps keep the dollar in check.
    A great example of this was Friday. Non-government wages were lower than traders' expectations. However, the unemployment rate fell, and wages rose. Thus, the dollar deserved such a sharp decline. In addition, I would like to note that markets are sensitive to forecasting. According to Nonform Payrolls, the forecast was 645K, and the actual price was 559K. What if the forecast was 400K? Will the dollar continue to rise? In general, the statistics are now very vague. Despite such "weak" figures as of Friday, the US economy is still growing stronger and more stable than in European countries.
    So, how can we say that if the data is better than Europe then the dollar is falling because of the data? In general, we assume that the data directly affects the EUR / USD exchange rate. Markets reacted to the publications on Thursday and Friday. Thus, we continue to believe that the key influence on the movement of the pair is provided by global factors, which we have already discussed a million times. However, what can you do if they have the most significant impact? What can be done to try to end the dollar shortfall due to 10 years of treasury or other temporary factors that do not affect the dollar? Based on all of the above, we can conclude that the US currency will depreciate in 2021. Of course, the technical indicators should confirm some basic assumptions. If the pair settles below the critical line next week, the scenario above will be temporarily irrelevant. It would be great if you always had a backup option in your pocket. It is worth remembering that on pure "technique", the pair can easily trade.
    As far as next week's statistics and important events are concerned, very few of them will be. In the European Union on Tuesday, the ZW Institute will release an index of business sentiment and the second estimate will be the volume of GDP in the first quarter. No other major economic report is scheduled for this week. On Thursday, the results of the ECB meeting will be summarized. However, no change in monetary policy or even a statement from the European regulator can be expected. In light of this, the focus will be on the press conference with Christine Lagarde. However, his recent speeches and statements make it clear that no significant changes are planned in the near future. Inflation may rise. At the moment, the consumer price index is rising. However, the base of the modern indicator was very small (months of last year, with which it is being compared), and is increasing after many years of staying below the target level of the ECB.
    Moreover, European inflation is not comparable to that of the United States. 2% is the normal rate of inflation, so there is nothing to worry about in Europe. However, in terms of PEPP's emergency financial assistance program, it is clearly not lacking compared to the March 2022 plan. And even ڈالر 1.85 trillion is unlikely to change, provided the European economy has just begun to recover. Of course, there can always be surprises, and you shouldn't take Lagarde's speech lightly, as Boris Johnson did with the virus when the epidemic began. But at the moment, everything seems like a surprise.
    In addition, I would like to note that trade talks between China and the United States have resumed. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu had fruitful talks last week. However, it is only about "discussing important issues". We can hardly expect the end of negotiations and trade agreements in the near future. As a result, trade tensions between China and the West are high, as are most of the trade duties introduced a few years ago. The issue is unlikely to have a significant impact on the dollar in the near future.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Technical Analysis Of GBPUSD


    H4

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    Technecal Levels

    High linear regression channel: direction - upwards.

    Lower linear regression channel: direction - upwards.

    Moving Average (20 Miss Smooth) - Along the way.

    CCI: -12.2902

    The British pound, supported by the US dollar, has been "swinging" for more than three weeks. Last Thursday, the pound / dollar pair and the euro / dollar pair fell sharply. However, on Friday, it repaired all previous day's damage. That way, nothing has changed. It can be seen that this pair is in the minimum price range. It is still very difficult to increase the value of the US currency. We've listed the reasons a million times already, and they haven't changed recently. Some hope that things will change as central banks begin to measure and quantify their quantitative easing programs. But when will this happen? Markets are now happy to tighten monetary policy through the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England. However, the ECB did not indicate such a move. However, traders need to create something when developing long-term strategies. Therefore, inflation indicators, the timing of possible completion of QE programs, and so on are now being used. However, it will all happen one day. Therefore, these factors do not affect the overall trend. Such headlines and news on these topics can only have a local effect on a particular currency. For example, if Andrew Bailey says tomorrow that BA is ready to raise rates by the end of the year, it will definitely support the British pound. It's been 15 months already. We say that Jerome Powell has publicly announced a rate hike (although various surveys of Fed officials say that in the US, they expect before 2023) and then what? The dollar will strengthen by 100-150 points, but will the global upward trend end? From our point of view, no. The global factors affecting the US currency are very strong. Therefore, it makes no sense to expect a strong dollar before the end of 2021.

    By the way, traders are now strictly ignoring many different topics. And they logically ignore them. Even the trade war between the United States and China, which began a few years ago, had only a background effect on the dollar. However, the most important thing is economic indicators. What is the difference between Washington and Beijing's trade relations? What matters is how their economy grows, whether the gap between their GDP is small or large.

    Another thing is Britain, which continues to receive "Mika" from destiny. After the fall of Brexit, many people thought that the worst was behind it. However, in early 2021, riots broke out on the island of Ireland, threatening to explode at any moment with a new force. The "Scottish" question will be a nightmare for Boris Johnson for a long time to come. However, we all know that if one wants to separate, it is unlikely that the other party will give up if it is against it. There are many examples of this in the last ten years. At least the same Catalonia. Thus, the second question is whether Boris Johnson is in favor of a new independence referendum in Scotland. The first question is the desire of the Scots themselves. Nothing stops them from holding a referendum and seceding from England. London does not recognize this branch. Courts and all kinds of proceedings will begin. But again, how many such examples have been found in recent years alone? Many world leaders also refused to recognize Lukashenko as a legitimate president, so what? He is in power in Belarus. Economic relations between Belarus and the rest of the world are practically intact because money and the economy are more important than who the country's president is and how the internal elections took place. As such, Scotland could offer London more than one surprise in the next two years. Also do not forget that the EU supports its return to the formation of Scotland. Therefore, it will provide full support to Edinburgh and its leader, Nicola Sturgeon.

    In general, the underlying background of the British pound remains weak. But this will only be reflected on the currency pair charts when global factors such as the release of trillions of dollars into the US economy stop working. When the "crisis" factors stop working, they will begin to affect the normal factors that everyone was accustomed to before the epidemic and the global crisis. But again, this is unlikely to happen in the next two months. From a purely technical point of view, at the moment, it is not even possible to create a clear side channel for cross-border trade. Moreover, the movement is so "like a swing" that it can overcome any square

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    The average volatility of the GBP / US pair is currently 93 points. For a pound / dollar pair, this value is "average". On Monday, June 7, we expect movement within the channel, which is limited to the levels of 1.4064 and 1.4250. The backdown of the Hyacin Asahi signal will signal a new era of downward movement within the "swing".

    Support Levels

    Support Level-1 1.4160

    Support Level-2 1.4130

    Support Level-3 1.4099

    Resistance Levels

    Resistance Level-1 1.4191

    Resistance Level-2 1.4221

    Resistance Level-3 1.4252

    .
    Trading recommendations:

    The GBP / USD pair has started a new round of upward movement on a 4 hour time frame. Therefore, today it is recommended to stay with the targets of 1.4221 and 1.4252 in the buy order until the Hacken Ashi indicator is rejected. With targets of 1.4130 and 1.4099, sell orders should be opened if the Hacken goes below the bearish indicator. The pound now continues to move flat.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

    Rejected

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  5. #3 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
    To open long positions on EuroSD, you must:

    At the time of the morning forecast, I looked at the level of 1.2154 and suggested that you make decisions about entering the market from it. If you look at the 5 minute chart, you will see how the bulls did not show much activity in the support area of ​​1.2154, and this level of opacity did not allow us to determine the entry point at the beginning of the European session. As a result, some incorrect breakouts at the 1.2154 level on Friday did not allow the bills to maintain the upward trend in the new local high area. The absence of key basic data today could have a negative impact on market volatility in the second half of the day.
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    From a technical point of view, nothing changed for the buyers, as they competed perfectly with the morning tasks. In the second half of the day, there are no important data about the United States, so the market will focus on the analysis of the US labor market on Friday. In the event of a euro decline, support for Buyer Action 1.4117 is the only protection of the US session. The formation of the wrong breakout will signal the beginning of long positions in anticipation of the continuation of the bill market formed last weekend. If there is no buyer activity, it is better to postpone the long position until the update of at least 1.4085, from where it was possible to observe the reversal of the pair last Friday. This level is the lower limit of some kind of wide side channel, in which the pound has been moving for a long time. Equally important for these bulls will be to regain the resistance of 1.4167, which they are now targeting. Exams after this level will signal the beginning of long peaks with a maximum bottom-to-bottom emission of 1.4197, where I recommend fixing the profit. Further target resistance of 1.4241 remains.

    To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need to:

    Sellers failed to break the 1.4117 area. To reverse the trend in the second half of the day, they will still need a breakout and a test below the 1.4117 level. Only then does the bear market become a place to enter short-term positions in anticipation of a resumption. Such a scenario should return GBP / USD to at least 1.4085, where I suggest taking advantage. It is possible to rely on a further supportive test of 1.4041, as key figures are not expected today, and the speeches of central bank leaders are not fixed. It is possible that buyers stopped the downward trend only after overcoming resistance at 1.4167. Therefore, the bear's priority job is to protect this range. Creating an incorrect breakout will signal the beginning of short positions. Given the growth of the pound in the first half of the day and the decline of bear activity in the area of ​​1.4167, it is better not to rush to sell. I suggest you update the short position to a maximum of 1.4197, from where you can sell pounds faster in the round with the expected correction of less than 20-25 points per day. The next major resistance is around 1.4241.
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    Let me remind you that the May 25 COT reports (Traders' Covenant) have recorded a decrease in short positions and a sharp increase in tall ones. Recent statements by Bank of England representatives that it is time to think about reducing bailouts and raising interest rates have taken many traders by surprise. Arranged to reach the top. Pound also backed the news that the UK economy would be fully open from June 21 this year, and all restrictions on Quid would be lifted. This will be a huge boost for retail and inflation. Against this background, the range of the pound will remain high. The COT report indicates that the long non-profit position has increased from 63,027 to 64,193. However, short-term non-profit positions fell sharply from 38,127 to 33,534, signaling the departure of sellers after unsuccessful attempts to take profits and turn the market towards them. This pound is another plus for buyers and those who believe in steady growth in the medium term. Last week's closing price did not change much and remained at 1.41553 which was 1.41479.

    Indicators Indicators:

    Moving average

    There are an average of 30 to 50 trades per day, which is more indicative of the nature of the route around the market.

    Note: The author considers the average hourly running time and prices on Chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic Daily Moving Average on Daily Chart D1.

    Bollinger Bands

    The pound will once again rise above the 1.4170 mark. Breaking the lower limit of the indicator in the area of ​​1.4120 will increase the pressure on the pair.

    Indication description

    Average mobility (average mobility determines the current trend by stabilizing and smoothing out noise). Duration 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
    Average mobility (average mobility determines the current trend by stabilizing and smoothing out noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
    MACD Indicator (Average Convergence / Deviation Moving - Average Convergence / Division Motion) Fast EMA 12. Fast EMA 26. SMA Term 9
    Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands) Period 20
    Nonprofit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific needs.
    The long non-trading position represents the total long open position of non-trading traders.
    The short non-trading position represents the short open position of non-trading traders.
    Non-trading net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-trading traders.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
    30M Chart of EUR/USD
    Name: analytics60be586feafd4.jpg Views: 89 Size: 106.3 KB
    The euro / US dollar pair was trading strangely on Monday. Even on a 30-minute time frame, it is clear that at first the price remained practically stagnant and reached 1.2159, and began to rise sharply in the second half of the day. Since neither the United States nor the European Union published an economic report or any other important event today, it is strange to see a sharp increase in the US summit. In fact, theoretically, U.S. businessmen could have reacted to information from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who announced today that the U.S. government will continue to implement the general stimulus plan, which means there will be more spending in the budget.There are more. Will be done This is bad news for the US currency, as the US budget has been in deficit for a long time, which means that extra money will be hidden or borrowed. However, it is almost impossible to say that their information made it clear that there was a leap upwards. Also, the couple left town in a very strange way. For 10-12 hours, it traded along the upper channel line, and then an upward movement began. Thus, the downward trend is reversed and the pair continues to trade in a limited way.
    [SIZE="4"]15M Chart of EUR/USD[/SIZE
    Name: Screenshot_2021-06-08-06-36-51-36.jpg Views: 85 Size: 201.0 KB

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    Analysis Of EUR/USD Market

    Fundamental Analysis

    A total of Deutsche Bank economists have released a report stating that inflation is a serious problem in most developed countries. He did not reject the Fed's scenario, which means it will end automatically. However, he noted that inflation would continue and lead to crises in the years to come. In this prediction, far ahead of the consensus of policymakers and Wall Street, Deutsche has issued a stern warning that focusing on concessions without worrying about inflation was a big mistake. Furthermore, economists point to the Federal Reserve and its policy indicators that it can withstand high inflation to recover strongly.

    Technical Analysis

    Prices are stuck in the horizontal channel between 1.2158 and 1.2199 as market participants await the outcome of the Fed meeting and the inflation report from the United States. Today, it is difficult to determine the direction of the pair, but according to general dynamics, the price is likely to move upwards. Therefore, if the price ends above the strong pair point at 1.899 and stabilizes, the current high hitting of the EUR / USD is expected to benefit from 1.2265. On the other hand, if the price falls and stabilizes below 1.2125, the EUR / USD pair could enter a significant bearish correction.

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    Big Day Ahead For Euro: What To Expect From ECB

    The euro has one big day left, with the announcement of monetary policy on this calendar and the US inflation report. Between the two events, the European Central Bank meeting is usually longer, but the US dollar has moved to the open side of equity, which recovered losses before the release of the CPI. There is little doubt that inflation is rising, but the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it sees this increase temporarily. When retail sales and non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, and effectively prove the central bank's caution, a strong inflation report will not increase the likelihood of a storm in June. The US dollar / JPY may rise in good numbers, but its gains should be limited before next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

    The Euro moved quietly with the announcement of the European Central Bank's monetary policy, which tells us that investors are looking forward to it. The release of the economic forecast has been made and much has changed in the last three months. During this time, the regional and global recovery has stabilized and the outlook for the eurozone economy has matured. Inflation has also risen around the world, with many experts complaining about the Fed's view that rising inflation will be temporary. The question for the ECB tomorrow is whether the central bank's outlook for growth and inflation is so strong.

    Basically, the Eurozone outlook is very clear, but the ECB should follow the actual data, not the expectations of the data. The problem is the frustration of the recent data. The decline in factory orders and industrial production in April came on the back of weakness in retail, the ZW survey and the PMI. The decline in ZW's optimism factor after the recent re-opening signal was particularly surprising. Unless the data meets expectations, the ECB may choose to abstain. German bond yields and the euro are strong, and if negotiations start early, there is a risk of their recovery.

    If the ECB avoids insults, EUR / USD will sink to 1.21 in despair. But if his confidence in recovery is so strong that he now wants to set asset reduction targets, the euro / US dollar could appreciate as the Federal Reserve moves toward normalizing the policy.

    Although the US dollar / CAD changed course after the announcement of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy, this stability masked a significant intra-day rally. Prior to the rate decision, the Canadian dollar traded strong, with the US dollar / CAD falling below 1.2060. After this announcement, he shot at a high level, and he reached the peak of 1.2117 for the day. The Bank of Canada's monetary policy statement is quite optimistic, with the central bank looking for a strong response this summer. But investors were hoping for a tesper in the summer. Technically, the USD / CAD is growing very deep, and with strong stability for a month, the pair is important for a significant part.

    Other currencies, such as sterling, New Zealand and Australian dollar, trade less against the US dollar. The rising incidence of Cove 19 in the UK and the rapidly expanding Delta variations have raised concerns about the government's ability to meet the June 21 deadline. Things are getting closer in March this year, but the death toll is lower. . Confidence is declining in New Zealand and Australia, with the ANZ Business Climate Index for New Zealand dropping from 1.8 to -0.4 in June. Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence Index fell 5.2%.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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    EUR/USD: HOLDING SUPPORT AFTER ECB
    The ECB rate was decided this morning. This was partly affected by the release of the CPI outside the United States, and the EUR / USD pair did not fluctuate much around the statement. The press conference started at exactly 8:30 a.m., with the release of the CPI at the same time, so it can be difficult to decide which program had to pull more here but on the net, it is not possible to pull either side more. Was Aspect because this pair is beautiful. In the same place as this morning.

    EUR/USD Hourly timeframe

    Name: US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EURUSD-GBPUSD-USDCAD-USDJPY_body_EURUSDDailyPriceChart6102021.png Views: 112 Size: 13.8 KB

    One step back on the chart and the issue of constant acceleration can be presented here. I explained this in last week's analyst selection, looking for the EUR / USD below the 2134-2167 support zone.

    This happened after Monday's opening and this morning another example came up around ECB / CPI drivers. The fact that buyers have been holding this support zone throughout the week leaves the pair open to the above scenario.

    EUR/USD 4 HOUR Time frame

    Name: US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EURUSD-GBPUSD-USDCAD-USDJPY_body_EURUSDFourHourPriceChart61020210.png Views: 90 Size: 17.5 KB

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    U.S. Dollar Soars As Investors Look To FOMC

    The US dollar ended the weekend against all major currencies with today's rally, delaying Thursday's inflation report. A stronger-than-expected consumer confidence also helped boost demand for the US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement next week. US policymakers have insisted that the rise in inflation is temporary, which has disappointed consumers and discouraged tipper-talk talks in the labor market next week.

    However, in weak recovery positions, many central banks have begun the process of normalizing policy by reducing asset purchases, so there is a growing belief that the Federal Reserve needs more time to do so. Next week will be a close call as the Fed has permanently eased price pressures, but the annual CPI is the biggest increase in more than a decade. Excluding food and energy, the increase was the largest in nearly three decades. No other major country is moving as fast as the United States, and the problem is that high prices for travel, food and auto may not fall as fast as the Fed expects, as some of these businesses will reduce revenue Will Want to restore

    The rally in US dollars and the rise in Treasury yields tell us that investors expect policymakers to talk about sharpening their language and make adjustments accordingly. Tuesday's retail sales report will go a long way in setting expectations for Wednesday's policy meeting.

    On Friday, the European Central Bank's decision to avoid speculation and debate about the Fed typewriter stumbled on the EUR / USD on Friday. There is no major eurozone economic report on next week's calendar, the euro will signal this from the hunger of the US dollar market. Despite mixed figures, sterling weakened. Monthly GDP growth and trade balance were stronger than expected, but industrial production fell unexpectedly. It is now widely believed that the UK's full reopening target will be delayed from June 21 to the end of the month due to the growing number of celebrities. British Chancellor Rishi Sink said he could accept a four-week delay. As we mentioned in yesterday's note, the delay will hurt Sterling. Next week is busy for the UK, with the release of inflation, employment and retail reports.

    The New Zealand and Australian dollars were the worst performers, with the NZD lagging behind disappointing manufacturing data. While the country's PMI manufacturing index rose to 58.6 from 58.3, the increase was due to a fatal decline last month. New Zealand is ahead of the United States in its recovery, and New Zealand has less error than the Reserve Bank Fed, but due to the high beta currency, NZD, hunger and demand for the US dollar are an extraordinary risk. New Zealand's first-quarter GDP figures are due next week. Data was less impressive in Australia, which explains the decline in AOD. The number of labor markets is from Australia and, after two months of poor job growth, investors are hoping for a stronger recovery in jobs. The US dollar / CAD returned to its strongest level in three weeks, but the Fed expects a broader recovery.

    ALI Waris

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  16. #9 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    FOMC: Words Not Actions
    The Federal Reserve's open market committee meeting is the most important event next to the meeting. This is not that it will take a fresh policy action. Rather, it focuses on its observation and guidance about the economy. Since the feed was last sweet in April, job growth has decreased, and prices have increased rapidly.

    Job Development Q1 was facing 661 km but reached 419kg in April and May. Like other labor market matrix, weekly initial unemployment claims, continue trend. The average harmony is running in four weeks to be smooth to 402k, half the end was half-half. Like employment opener, other labor market will improve the improvement of matrix.

    Perhaps one of the most annoying figures is that the Labor Force's participation rate is 61.5 percent through May. In 2019 it increased by 63.1 percent in 2018 and increased by 62.9 percent to 62.9 percent in 2018. It is likely to reflect unusual re-opening including school and day care in Blue States / Red States and fields. May be interested in retirement during the vind. 61.6 percent in May, the participation rate is at the level in 1976-1977.
    One of the great parties is on the role of federal unemployment compensation, which is decided about concern and return work. About half American states leading to all the Republicans, the federal government will eliminate access to unemployment compensation and programs, which cover Gig workers and long-term unemployment.

    From the beginning of September, the federal program has not been set to eliminate. Access to Missouri, Mississippi, Alaska, and Iova Week (June 12). After eight states (June 26), another nine states joined the following week (June 19). After that, four more states rejected federal unemployment relief in the following three weeks.

    "Anecdote" is often used as "proof" and everyone knows someone. Emergency Federation unemployment compensation started in $ 600 a week and continued to $ 300 in September. It quickly fell from zero and then returned $ 300 a week in January. There was no effect on the drops of employment. In addition, with the lowest unemployment in April, four American states will face the following weekends from Federal Programs (Nebraska and New Hampshire June 19 and South Dakota and Utah.

    Just looking at a short-term jump in pressure on the price like a feed, it is looking through disappointing non-form salary development. Many feed officials have acknowledged that the discussion can be appropriate to the next meetings to adjust the speed of purchase speed. The US reported that the headline CPI sharpened more than 5 percent, some observers paid the possibility that it will be fed that it has started talking about the speed of buying bond.

    It is gradually identifying the main scene of the system, which has long been identified, due to the announcement of Q3. Jackson holes have been terminated Friday and / or September FOMC meeting.

    Although many central banks are adopted by purchasing long-term assets, although it is difficult to understand the effect of the right market. The US 10-year production has increased one of the biggest quarters in 82 BP (Q1 '21) and resulting in a federal reserve resulting from $ 40 billion as a result of the Federal Reserve. The agency was buying $ 80 billion dollars. Similarly, because ECB sharpened the speed of buying your bond in March, the production of European bonds has increased, did not fall (and praise the euro).

    Finally, most important because it includes information about the first rate increase. At the March FOMC meeting, the last time officials updated individual predictions, no increase in 1123 to 11 to 18 will be appropriate.

    As a rally agreeing, December 2022 Eurodollalla Fugures agreement has more than 24 business points points from 24 January to 67.5 BP to 24 business points. The dollar has been exploited as interest rates. It ended on 36 BP last week. It is understood that the cash market is about 11-12 BP, the market is still a rate in the market, more than a year more than a year when the majority of the feed has increased.

    In addition, it is not fully appreciated that there is an appropriate opportunity that will be an important change before the feed leadership. Consider that Deputy Chair (for surveillance) ends. The chair as the term of Jerome Paul ends next February, and the term of Richard Clarida as the end of the other vice chair in 2022
    The story is slightly complicated. For example, quarles, can stay by 2032 feed governor. The official term is traditional to remove one's seat, but the official term ends, but there are some frictions that can be questions. The term of the Clada ends in January 2022, but he can be reset because he was completing an unexpected term. Polar period as polar reaches 2028. If he is not a fixed chair it is expected.

    There are three dimensions of the feed who criticized. First of all, some open short-term rates are accepting a downward increase, which starts negative effects. It is believed that the feed will wait until effective feed funds will fall on five basis points above (zero), it is necessary to provide 10bps and provide 10bps on need and additional reserves and / or / or A few basis points. On reverse rap (now set zero).

    Of course, an important part of the reserves being fed for treasures and MBS is being created. The market is expected to be technical measures (intent), and it appears that the recent auction has helped production of T-bill bill.

    Secondly, many people think that the feed indicated that it will accommodate the bond that is buying it to meet the treasure supply. This means that feed will increase the purchase of 20-year bonds. However, when it was the opportunity, he did not do this.

    It is difficult to say that it is more result. The spread between 10- and 20 years of treasure is mostly in 55-65 BP range this year, and it remains up to this extent. At the same time, what is doing will facilitate the trust.

    Third, the fed is buying some asset class that challenges the mandate of its financial stability. Franklin Roosevelt has caught the weapons with the devil to observe an emergency, but the emergency has ended, and the bridge has been crossed.

    Feed suggestions are buying and owning a quarter of the market. These two are not such big players in this market and claim that the expectations of the breaking market are reflected. Do not buy Federal Reserve Tips. It wastes important information, and especially, feed actions must eliminate inflation expectations.

    The housing market is growing while feed ground securities support continues to buy. The Association of Mortgage Banks estimates that in Q1 22, compared to 4.4% in Q1 19, Delison's rate was approximately 6.4 percent.

    S & P Corelogic Case - Shellar National Home Price Index has increased by 13.2 percent during the last 12 months, more than 2005. The supply of new home construction is being transmitted by delay and deficit, and it affects the sale of new home and it appears that on the effects of current home sales. It is not to claim a housing market bubble, but more conservative, feed purchase can be more likely instead of financial instability.

    The Federal Reserve is not just an important central bank that fulfills, but it is the first. After the day, meet the main banks from the central banks from the central banks, it is the highest hockey. Norjus Bank has encouraged to grow on the end of this year. The small decrease in May CPI (title rate reaches 2.7 percent by 3.0% and the basic rate fell 2.0% to 1.5 percent) is not likely to convince its guidance.

    The deposit rate is in zero, and the market has increased by the end of this year and has increased each other in H1 22. The highest increase in September. As a result, Norway's crown has appreciated 3.25 percent compared to this year, and against the Euro and Swedish crown, which is 0.4-0.6% nursing, so far there is a decrease against Greenback in 2021.

    We argue that financial policy signals in explanation of foreign exchange signals make a long way. However, some indicate that Kronon is related to oil prices. Indeed, 60 days of contact and exchange rate between oil change is a little shy of 0.5. However, consider that contact with S & P 500 is slightly higher. Perhaps this link is being picked up, per risk, raw price per c.

    The Bank of Japan meeting has ended on June 18. There are minor policy adjustments that were little effect and little attention. Bo Jay has reduced to buy his bond, but someone has not confused it with tapering.

    For the first time in eight years, Business did not bought any equality ETFs for a month, and still, at the top, 1.3 percent increase in May. Without bidding bid, the short seller can be left. On the other hand, pricing in Japan is less than US and Europe, and is ready to restore the economy in H2.

    ALI Waris

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  18. #10 You can automatically minimize the read posts in your account in the 'Forum Settings'
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    Event Preview: FOMC June Monetary Policy Meeting
    The FOMC decision (June 16, 6 pm GMT) is set to be a major event of the week, so if you are trading this high-end cluster, start preparing better.

    What happened before, how the dollar reacted, and what is expected this time.

    No bombshells in April FOMC meeting
    FOMC's previous statements did not completely eliminate the socks of the markets, as the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and Powell refrained from splitting tipper projects.
    You see, since the US economy has seen some green growth, expectations of a stimulus reduction have been rising sharply in the market.
    There were some pleasant remarks on price pressures, but officials were quick to point out that these were probably temporary factors. The statement also acknowledged progress in the vaccination rollout and said it had boosted economic activity.

    However, policymakers reiterated that they would like to see "substantial further progress" before making any adjustments in terms of inflation and employment.

    Because of this, Greenback's response was understandable but quiet, as dollar traders were expecting some more interest from the Fed.
    USD Pair 15M

    Name: IMG_20210615_104840.jpg Views: 16 Size: 107.7 KB
    Powell to dodge taper talk, but inflation upgrades eyed
    The FOMC's announcement comes this week with the latest economic forecast, and many are taking a positive view of the inflation forecast.
    Note that the CPI report and the basic PCE price indicator, called the Fed's inflation measure, posted a reversal surprise for May.
    However, policymakers may once again warn that price pressures are temporary and cannot be sustained without full employment. Based on past NFP releases, the labor situation is not very good.

    In addition, the Fed is likely to be silent on their timeline for terminating pool purchases of assets.
    Watch out for dot plot changes
    Market watchers may instead turn their attention to the latest predictions of interest rate change dot plots, as some members of the committee may be a little more rude this time around.
    In particular, some officials have already adjusted their rate hike forecasts, possibly bringing the average estimate for the first time to early 2023. Combined with the possible rise in inflation, this could be an immediate scenario for a greenback.
    On the other hand, the growing emphasis on weak employment data could drive up inflation and raise profit expectations.

    ALI Waris
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