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    Arrow ALB-trading Journal

    Update # 01
    July 18, 2021



    Good afternoon and happy weekend friends on the MT5 forum. Today we are still in a holiday mood, but for me, it is not so interesting. Since I may have to leave the city tomorrow, the condition of the spread of the coronavirus in our country is very worrying for me, so I stay at home as much as possible.

    Now I don't want to discuss the USD roadmap | CAD, I prefer to discuss the GOLD roadmap. As a safe-haven asset, gold is still the best choice for investors. In addition, in the context of uncertain global economic conditions due to the coronavirus pandemic, precious metals have become a fairly safe asset since last year because the long-term impact is smaller than risky assets such as Actions.

    4-hour gold chart

    Name: usdcad D1.png Views: 38 Size: 107.5 KB

    Judging from the gold price trend on the 4-hour chart, I'm still in an uptrend. Because, if you pay attention, there is no significant decline, so it can form a new lower support level. If gold prices weaken next week, a new support level will appear as a guide to retest the support level in an upward correction. Technically, the previous price movement was unable to continue its bullish rally above its 200 SMA (red line) and has reversed direction. Yesterday the price tried to test the 50 EMA (blue line) downwards. For example, if the 50 EMA, which is the current dynamic support level, breaks, it may continue to rebound downwards.

    I wait for the gold price to break the channel's lower line, and then enter a sell position. Otherwise, the price may rise again because gold is still in an uptrend. J. Powell's skepticism about the Fed's progress, the need to resist policy adjustments and unclear data results, as well as renewed tensions between China and the United States and the coronavirus issue, have soured confidence. The market has allowed increasing the price of gold as a safe asset. ... I prefer fundamental analysis and technical analysis of gold, for reference only, because gold is more liquid than currency pairs, and is volatile when rumors or problems spread.

    Thank you, friends, who have different opinions for visiting, hopefully, next week our operations will be even better and the percentage of profits can increase. This is the end of this update. Have a good rest on the weekend and let's freshen up.


    "Change what you see, not what you think"
    Happy trading

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    Update # 02
    July 18, 2021


    Good morning friends, dear friends, I hope that you will always be healthy and profitable with your appropriate methods, although sometimes there are traders who get confused because they see that the signal is to buy, here is the signal to sell ... Therefore, it is very important to strengthen and improve skills. We work ourselves so that it is not easy to follow other people's signals. Previously, Darling could only trade in the opinion of other people, but now Darling began to be able to independently analyze the forex market with constant money management.

    USDCAD Market Monitoring

    Name: usdcad.jpg Views: 38 Size: 220.0 KB

    We can see the market structure model in USDCAD, from previous monitoring, the USDCAD pair is generally determined by the buying sentiment, but according to the law of supply and demand, there will certainly be a weak point where the price will reverse when it reaches your highest limit. In the current market conditions, USDCAD seems to have managed to touch the resistance level. And our next challenge is to wait for a valid reversal confirmation to counter the downtrend. So the trading plan for Monday morning is to target sell orders only, keep money management safe at all times, and avoid MCs.

    EURUSD Market Tracking

    Name: eurusd.jpg Views: 36 Size: 212.3 KB

    As for the EURUSD market, it seems that it is still moving in a rather strong downtrend, and indeed, it is very important for us to carry out the analysis, going for a long time frame to get a reference point for the target support level, and coincidentally, here the dear found a strong enough support level. to reverse the price to become bullish later. Thus, for the EURUSD trading plan, we can wait for the price to fall to a new support level, after which we can pass it using a buy-only position, and even better if combined with a reversal pattern.

    USDCHF Market Tracking

    Name: USDCHF.jpg Views: 35 Size: 212.0 KB

    We can understand the price movement in the market that is above the resistance level and for the lower limit we can call it the support level, so far the USDCHF price has completed its peak, that is, when the market pattern forms a double top. then a bearish move ensues, which can break the neckline, and then the price pulls back again to test the resistance level at the current price. For today's trading plan, we may be ready to open a sell position with the risk of placing it above the resistance, and we indicate the spread distance as a tolerance, if there is a beating from the buyer's side, then we can be safe and have a chance of profit. will be higher because the market structure is very well-formed.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    Update # 03
    July 20, 2021

    I wish you a happy Eid Al-Fitr for those who celebrate. It's hard to celebrate this pandemic, but you have to believe that we can be together.

    Before the main discussion, I would like to update the gold trading position that I mentioned in the Sunday 11 July 2021 magazine. In the technical analysis during H1, I mentioned the best entry point when the price fell back to 1800-1790. Finally, yesterday at the market opening on Monday, July 19, I bought limit orders at 1790 and 1795. Do this- the stop loss for every 0.01 lot is 1785.

    However as the low only hit 1,794.79, orders haven't been completed since then and then went up. The current trading plan is the same as before, but if the bearish engulfing candle turns into an impulse to sell and the Bollinger Band expands in the H1 timeframe, I will cancel the order.

    USD/JPY analysis

    The focus of discussion now is the yen, which is Ms. Sora Aoi, and the yen strengthened against all currencies in the world. Buyers are actively buying yen. Almost everyone has touched the MA200 red moving average, not just the USD/JPY currency pair. Therefore, compared to other currency pairs, if we sell this currency pair, there is a big profit opportunity, because the price still has a big chance to fall to the red 200 MA in the picture.

    Daily TF USD/JPY

    The sellers started a bearish momentum at 00:00 server time on July 2, 2021. Just like the formation of a bearish reversal candle, the buyers were unable to break through the 111.65 daily price range of the upper line of the Bollinger Bands I was using. ...This is a sign of a very significant downtrend, as sellers continued to push the price to break the strong 110 support and the blue MA50.



    USD/JPY TF H1

    The USD/JPY price is currently at 109.44 It seems that buyers are starting to buy the USD, pushing USD/JPY down from the low of 109.05. However, three consecutive bearish candles confirm the dominance of the biggest sellers. In other words, the best option is to limit sales following the downtrend.



    Trading strategies and forecasts

    USD/JPY will drop sharply following the downtrend and the dominance of the major sellers, and the price forecast for July will drop to 108-107.50. Therefore, I chose the price-limit selling strategy where the price fell in three positions. I had worked to achieve this goal before the price resumed its downward trend, namely:
    • When the price drops back to the orange MA10, the sell limit is 109.50.
    • When the price returns to the BB midline, the sell limit is 109.65.
    • When the price drops back to the blue MA50, the sell limit is 109.80.

    I set my stop loss at the opening price of 50 points and the profit target is 108. Hopefully, this forecast and strategy can complement the dynamics of the market. Thank you.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    Good morning, good work for all friends at MT5 family and also friends who always support by sharing their analysis and trading strategies.

    This morning there are two pairs that have been on my radar and trading plans since last week, namely USDJPY and USDCHF. Why these two pairs? Let's look at the following analysis.

    USDJPY
    The pair has dropped from a high of 111.65 to a low of 109.05 in just 2 weeks. While the previous increase from the price of 107.50 rose to the price of 111.65 took more than 2 months. This means that there is a significant difference in momentum between the rising and falling phases. From here I predict USDJPY will still be bearish until the end of July 2021.

    Name: Usdjpy.jpg Views: 50 Size: 514.0 KB

    Looking at candlestick patterns and structures with the help of bollinger bands on the USDJPY chart on the Daily timeframe, there are 3 technical factors that support the bearish USDJPY , namely:
    • The appearance of the candlestick rejection in the form of bearish engulfing on July 2 was a significant rejection by the seller of the resistance at 111.65.
    • The appearance of a bearish engulfing candlestick on July 8 that broke the MA20 is a trend exchange signal.
    • The appearance of a bearish sell momentum candlestick on July 19 that broke the lower line of the Bollinger band is a set up for OP sell.

    Based on the three elements of the bearish indicator above, I estimate that the Sell USDJPY strategy is the best at this time, I also made three Sell Limit orders plans, namely:

    First plan
    • Sell ​​limit on the MA20 line @110.30,
    • Profit Target @109.30,
    • Stop Loss 50 pips,
    • RiskReward 1 :2.

    Second plan
    • Sell ​​limit at supply @110.50,
    • Target Profit @109.30,
    • Stop Loss 50 pips,
    • Risk Reward 1:2.3

    Third plan
    • Sell ​​limit at swing high @110.60,
    • Target Profit @109.30,
    • Stop Loss 50 pips,
    • RiskReward 1:2.4

    USDCHF
    Has status as a safe haven, buyers bought up Swiss Francs due to global economic uncertainty due to the Covid19 pandemic, so USDCHF was under deep pressure.

    Name: Usdchf.jpg Views: 44 Size: 560.1 KB

    Technically I use the Bollinger Band Moving Average to analyze the bearish USDCHF in the Daily timeframe , in the process a Sell set up has been formed because:
    • An extreme sell appears, where a bullish candlestick is responded by the seller with a bearish candlestick.
    • Then comes MHV as a weak advance with no momentum.
    • After that a bearish engulf candlestick appeared which broke and closed below the MA20.
    • And continued by pullback aka bearish correction.

    Currently the USDCHF price cluster is in the Re-entry Sell area. So I chose two sell entry strategies, namely:

    The first strategy
    • Sell ​​in the supply area @0.9210,
    • Profit Target @0.9110,
    • Stop Loss 50 pips,
    • Risk Reward 1:2

    The second strategy
    • Sells at resistance @0.9230,
    • Target Profit @0.9110,
    • Stop Loss 50 pips ,
    • Risk Reward 1:2.1

    That's my trading plan on USDJPY and USDCHF for today Thursday, July 22, 2021, I hope the market is not dramatic and makes a good profit.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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    Analysis of the US dollar index and forecast of the pound against the dollar


    Good afternoon friends, finally we have arrived at the weekend, when surprises and quite drastic price fluctuations often occur, today I will share my analysis and predictions, opinions, and comments on trading the US dollar and British pound against the US dollar index. My colleagues. Welcome to make more accurate analyses and predictions for the future.


    USD Index - Multi Timeframe Analysis

    I believe that the USD/USD rebound last Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be limited by sellers' rejection at the 93.16 daily resistance level and two bearish rejection candles above the Bollinger Bands. Up until last Thursday, sellers dominated and pushed the US dollar index to a new low, hitting the MA5/MA10 low of 92.48, but buyers finally reacted positively and pushed the price to 92.81.

    I predict USD/USD will rebound first to the 92.89 MA5/MA10 retracement area on the daily chart, and then continue its decline since last Wednesday and Thursday. The H4 chart analysis confirms this, as since Wednesday and Thursday, with the emergence of the MHV sells and sell pattern on both sides, the purchasing power has been in an overbought condition. Today, sellers also forced USDX to suppress the Bollinger Bands. The Kline is in the retracement zone where the MA5/MA10 high was sold, so I predict USDX will continue to fall to the new support. ... At the same time, USDX's H1 period analysis broke the MA50 and MA200. I predict the USD/USD trend will change from bullish to bearish until buyers can hold 92.75 as the main support.

    Name: UsdxH4.jpg Views: 32 Size: 435.1 KB

    GBPUSD - Multi Timeframe Analysis
    After buyers reacted positively by reversing a bullish engulfing candlestick, the pound's decline against the dollar temporarily held on to this week's low of 1.3570 last Tuesday. I think today's rebound will continue to the high point of the oversold MA5/MA10 area at the daily line 1.3830-1.3850.

    But before the rebound occurs, I predict GBP/USD will be corrected first based on the H4 time frame analysis. Currently, the candle is in the selling area, and the MA5/MA10 has returned to its high position. Based on the price from the chart, I think it will be GBP/USD. . First, the correct minimum MA5/MA10 on the H4 time frame is at 1.3745-1.3725, after that it will continue to strengthen to test the resistance of the red MA200. I believe that the price movement of the red 200 MA in the H4 timeframe will cause a sizeable price swing, which is in line with the usual closing of the trading week for GBP/USD. I wish we were more vigilant.

    Name: GbpusdH4.jpg Views: 29 Size: 452.0 KB

    Conclusion and trading plan
    Based on an analysis of multiple periods for USDX and GBPUSD, we get a synchronized price trend, i.e. USDX will first rebound into the retracement zone, sell the MA5/MA10 to the daily high at 92.89 TF, and then continue. Down, the first GBPUSD will open at MA5. The lowest point/MA10 on the H4 time frame is at 1.3745-1.3725 and then continued to rise to the resistance level of 1.3830-1.3850.

    Based on the results of the analysis and evaluation given above, I have formulated two business plans, namely:

    The first plan: buy GBPUSD
    • If the price corrects to 1.3725, the profit target is 1.3830, and the stop loss is at 1.3675 at the sandwich candle in the demand zone during H1. I have set a 1:2 RR for this exchange.

    Second package-selling GBPUSD
    • If the price immediately rises to the resistance level 1.3830-1.3850 after the main bearish trend, the profit target is 1.3750, and the stop loss is 50 points from the order price.

    Above is my analysis and prediction about USDX and GBPUSD. Hopefully useful for all. Welcome to benefits.

    Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.

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