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    Thread: 65609101/njjize11 - news trading, pivot points and simple MA strategy

    1. #1 Collapse Post
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      Default 65609101/njjize11 - news trading, pivot points and simple MA strategy

      So here I am, as promised I will take this trading contest very seriously for my own skills improvement, I wanna do some very good disciplined trading, what will be results I am not thinking of right now

      So here is my account data:
      Login: 65609101
      Investor password: njjize11

      Pairs for trading: eur/jpy, eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd. I doubt I will trade any other pair, but usd/cad might be the one I look on when there is rate decision this week.
      1. About strategy, I am going to use pivot points and that means resistance and support will be my closest friends.
        Right now what is in my mind already:

        Buying support point eur/jpy, eur/usd, aud/usd because these pairs have shown me strong movement upwards and until we see some reverse in major trend, some catalyst in news section to the downside, nothing is gonna change. Basically 1h time frame used for this.

      2. News trading. I am going to trade news release on 5 min chart, though some speculations on pre-news I might do too, but that is rarely and not sure I might have such opportunity around in next weeks but who knows now. What is in my mind already for next week:
        • Monetary policy for Japanese Yen is gonna be interesting but not sure I am gonna trade it.
        • ZEW economic sentiment for Euro, existing home sales for Dollar on Tuesday
        • Huge one is going to be Aussie CPI on Wednesday, this one might be a nice opportunity to sell Aussie because expectations are low and if release is lower you know very well whats gonna happen. Also this seems like one event though where I might speculate before release on weaker Aussie but also we should be careful, any better than expected outcome is likely to lead to strong Aussie and definitely 1.06 will be retested in such scenario.
        • Claimant Count Change and MPC Meeting Minutes for pound is up for trading on Wednesday too.
        • HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI and other Chinese data on Thursday might be nice indicators for overall market sentiment.
        • German Flash Manufacturing PMI along with other German and EU data on Thursday too might be interesting releases to work with.
        • German Ifo Business Climate good indicator for market sentiment as well on Friday
        • Prelim GDP q/q for pound on Friday is going to be big one, but not sure I will be able to trade this release, however some speculations I might do before release on Friday morning.

        That is for news trading, I know a lot but I am stating these most important here so I can easier state my decisions later when I open trades. Not saying I will trade all of them, but I usually follow these news releases and who knows maybe I can find some nice trades.

      3. Last but not the least is simple MA strategy based on momentum. 30 min time frame, 20 moving average and candle closure above or below this line triggers trade. take profit 30 pips, stop loss 20 pips. Strategy based on momentum but used only on European session when market is most volatile and momentum is there. Back testing of more than one month and results are promising, lets see how its gonna be this week.

      And the most important part, discipline, risk management and money management.
      Balance: 10000 dollars
      Risk 2% per trade, no more than two trade simultaneously.

      For news trading: 30 pip stop loss: lot size 7 which will be 210 dollars per losing trade. take profit depends on release and market momentum, but might vary from 30 up to 60-70 pips.

      For pivot points strategy: 30-35 pip stop loss, again 6-7 lot size, take profit 40-80 pips, depends on news and market momentum too.

      For MA strategy, lot size also unchanged - 7, might take 8 but not going to risk more than that this time. Everything else explained above.


      Lot size decreased for every 1k dollars lost, increased for every 1k dollars earned, so if I have BALANCE of 11k I can use lot size 8, if balance 9k I use lot size 6.
      Sure some risk management calculations will be done in process too, but that is basic points I must stick with.


      So this is for my own purpose to train discipline, I will explain every single trade I make carefully and hope to achieve good results in improving my discipline.



      Here is trades example how I will format each trade:
      pair:
      lot size:
      take profit:
      stop loss:
      result:
      profit/loss:
      reason:

      might add charts too in reason section.


      I will trade no matter how big or small my trading capital and hope to be able to trade also on February 8 and 9

      I will add information, in case I forgot something, because that sometimes happens to me, I wrote a lot and might forget something there.

      Best of luck to all and looking forward to next week! This is going to be exciting!


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      Good explanation. I see that you are unique. I never have any real experience on trading with news analysis. Let us wait and see how the news works. By the way, all the best for you.
      venki


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      I like your plan, I also have some ideas that looks like your plan, but I think I'll just be a little more aggressive in terms of money management! I'll explain it later on my special thread!


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      Quote Originally Posted by MT5 venki     
      Good explanation. I see that you are unique. I never have any real experience on trading with news analysis. Let us wait and see how the news works. By the way, all the best for you.
      Thank you mate, best of luck to you too!

      Quote Originally Posted by azmassi     
      I like your plan, I also have some ideas that looks like your plan, but I think I'll just be a little more aggressive in terms of money management! I'll explain it later on my special thread!
      That is nice, we are on the same side and that way we can learn from each other which can help us improve our trading definitely Speaking of money management, I thought too of risking more, but I want to trade carefully and with discipline so I am not so much interested in chasing top5 than getting my trading to whole new level But clearly best of luck to you and lets hope your risk pays off with some very nice profits


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      Quote Originally Posted by dzin4aans     
      That is nice, we are on the same side and that way we can learn from each other which can help us improve our trading definitely Speaking of money management, I thought too of risking more, but I want to trade carefully and with discipline so I am not so much interested in chasing top5 than getting my trading to whole new level But clearly best of luck to you and lets hope your risk pays off with some very nice profits
      Yes, that's what I think too, I do not care how much the other participants earn, what's important to me is to protect my account and make a reasonable profits!
      I am sure we will learn many things from each other.
      Good luck to you too!


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      Quote Originally Posted by dzin4aans     
      Risk 2% per trade, no more than two trade simultaneously.

      For news trading: 30 pip stop loss: lot size 7 which will be 210 dollars per losing trade. take profit depends on release and market momentum, but might vary from 30 up to 60-70 pips.

      For pivot points strategy: 30-35 pip stop loss, again 6-7 lot size, take profit 40-80 pips, depends on news and market momentum too.

      For MA strategy, lot size also unchanged - 7, might take 8 but not going to risk more than that this time. Everything else explained above.


      Lot size decreased for every 1k dollars lost, increased for every 1k dollars earned, so if I have BALANCE of 11k I can use lot size 8, if balance 9k I use lot size 6.
      Sure some risk management calculations will be done in process too, but that is basic points I must stick with.
      Oh my my......you are really great...your explanation is great
      i think i will follow your rules also...cause you have quite tight money management
      lets Rock and roll..........
      Give A thank if you appreciate it


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      Quote Originally Posted by fxaiden     
      Oh my my......you are really great...your explanation is great
      i think i will follow your rules also...cause you have quite tight money management
      lets Rock and roll..........
      Thanks mate for your support, I appreciate that Best of luck to you too!

      ---------- Post added 01-21-2013 at 10:49 AM ---------- Previous post was 01-20-2013 at 08:27 PM ----------

      1. TRADE
      Number: 779195281
      pair: EUR/JPY
      lot size: 7
      price: 119.29
      take profit: 118.69 <-- S2
      stop loss: 119.62 <-- above consolidation high
      result: EVEN
      profit/loss: 0
      reason:


      so there it is break of S1 again, not waiting for close of that candle, because today German WPI also came in worse than expected, Euro seems weaker and clearly Yen is top performer of the day, so that consolidation is either signal of reversal or continuous movement, this time I don't see rally but continuous sell-off to at least 118.66 which is second support, probably more but lets not be greedy. Close below 119.31 will be confirmation of that movement I hope.

      SL I will move to break even when 119 will be broken or close to it.[COLOR="Silver"]

      ---------- Post added at 11:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 AM ----------

      2. TRADE
      Number: 779198569
      pair: EUR/USD
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.3303
      take profit: 1.3273
      stop loss: 1.3323
      result: LOST
      profit/loss: -20 pips, -140 USD
      reason:



      Simple trigger from my second strategy on 30min chart, 20 MA showing 1.3318, close below at 1.3304 so there goes trade, with sl 20 pips and take profit 30 pips.
      If market gets through 1.33 then it will be okay. I would not take it but I took eur/jpy and my bearishness on euro today is saying this is tradeable.
      Eur/jpy trade already moved to break even, so risking only one one trade and if cable gets it through, another trade will come at 09.30 gmt

      Stats: 0-1-1
      profit/loss: -140 USD
      pips: -20
      Balance: 9860 USD


      Lets move on.
      3. TRADE
      Number: 779198569
      pair: EUR/USD
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.3324
      take profit: 1.3354
      stop loss: 1.3304
      result: to be announced
      profit/loss: to be announced
      reason:

      Well, was wrong I suppose with my bearishness, going to trade this on opposite way, I guess that 1.33 held is affirmation to that. Momentum on previous trade was not there, sharp reversal and back above moving average so lets see whats gonna happen now.


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      Quote Originally Posted by dzin4aans     
      Thanks mate for your support, I appreciate that Best of luck to you too!

      ---------- Post added 01-21-2013 at 10:49 AM ---------- Previous post was 01-20-2013 at 08:27 PM ----------

      1. TRADE
      Number: 779195281
      pair: EUR/JPY
      Type: Sell
      lot size: 7
      price: 119.29
      take profit: 118.69 <-- S2
      stop loss: 119.62 <-- above consolidation high
      result: EVEN
      profit/loss: 0
      reason:


      so there it is break of S1 again, not waiting for close of that candle, because today German WPI also came in worse than expected, Euro seems weaker and clearly Yen is top performer of the day, so that consolidation is either signal of reversal or continuous movement, this time I don't see rally but continuous sell-off to at least 118.66 which is second support, probably more but lets not be greedy. Close below 119.31 will be confirmation of that movement I hope.

      SL I will move to break even when 119 will be broken or close to it.[COLOR="Silver"]

      ---------- Post added at 11:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 AM ----------

      2. TRADE
      Number: 779198569
      pair: EUR/USD
      Type: Sell
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.3303
      take profit: 1.3273
      stop loss: 1.3323
      result: LOST
      profit/loss: -20 pips, -140 USD
      reason:



      Simple trigger from my second strategy on 30min chart, 20 MA showing 1.3318, close below at 1.3304 so there goes trade, with sl 20 pips and take profit 30 pips.
      If market gets through 1.33 then it will be okay. I would not take it but I took eur/jpy and my bearishness on euro today is saying this is tradeable.
      Eur/jpy trade already moved to break even, so risking only one one trade and if cable gets it through, another trade will come at 09.30 gmt



      Lets move on.
      3. TRADE
      Number: 779198569
      pair: EUR/USD
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.3324
      take profit: 1.3354
      stop loss: 1.3304
      result: LOST
      profit/loss: -20 pips, -140 USD
      reason:


      Well, was wrong I suppose with my bearishness, going to trade this on opposite way, I guess that 1.33 held is affirmation to that. Momentum on previous trade was not there, sharp reversal and back above moving average so lets see whats gonna happen now.
      Stats: 0-1-2
      profit/loss: -280 USD
      pips: -40
      Balance: 9720 USD


      4. TRADE
      Number: 779212765
      pair: EUR/USD
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.3308
      take profit: 1.3380 R1
      stop loss: 1.3275 <-- Fridays low
      result: To be announced
      profit/loss: To be announced
      reason:



      So double bottom there, along with overnights low, not going to miss this one, price just can't get through 1.3300 today. Stop loss below Fridays low, take profit at Resistance one and close to this years high which so far is extremely strong resistance.

      5. TRADE
      Number: 779212775
      pair: EUR/JPY
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 119.10
      take profit: 120.10
      stop loss: 118.85 <-- todays low which clearly is now strong support and has been back in January 14th.
      result: To be announced
      profit/loss: To be announced
      reason:



      Price got resisted at 118.90 and now retesting 119 and can't break through, taking this a bit earlier but basically on 119 resistance and January 14th low which was around the same level. Also bit speculating on upcoming BOJ event as Yen should weaken before this high volatility event that is why stop loss is very tight.

      ---------- Post added at 02:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:39 PM ----------

      6. TRADE
      Number: 779215713
      pair: EUR/USD
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.3319
      take profit: 1.3349
      stop loss: 1.3299
      result: To be announced
      profit/loss: To be announced
      reason:


      Again my 20 MA strategy, there goes another attempt on Euro/dollar this time before US open we might get enough momentum to push it up. Although unsuccessful previous two trades, I believe finally there should be enough momentum to push it up... Opened on closure on 1.3316 on 20 MA. As for risk management, stop loss moved to 1.3299 for 3rd trade so risk reduced to -9 pips and opened up space for new trade. Today only one trade left in my sight to not overtrade, so looking forward to US session.


      As for pictures, forgot about attachment opportunity and uploaded on other site but from now on will attach them so easier to zoom in.


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      7. TRADE
      Number: 779219444
      pair: EUR/JPY
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 119.34
      take profit: 119.63
      stop loss: 119.14
      result: To be announced
      profit/loss: To be announced
      reason:

      Name:  7th trade.png
Views: 42
Size:  27.3 KB

      Last trade for today, again my new strategy of 20 MA, trigger above 119.24 and I am riding it plus European session comes to close soon and hope momentum will be there to push it higher. As for money management, stop loss moved to break even on trade number 5 so I am still risking two trades and 9 pips Also 7 trades for today, I think enough, hopefully they can last for good Lets wait and see results and later sum things up.


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      Quote Originally Posted by dzin4aans     
      7. TRADE
      Number: 779219444
      pair: EUR/JPY
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 119.34
      take profit: 119.63
      stop loss: 119.14
      result: WIN
      profit/loss: 30 pips, +233.70 USD
      reason:


      Attachment 29919

      Last trade for today, again my new strategy of 20 MA, trigger above 119.24 and I am riding it plus European session comes to close soon and hope momentum will be there to push it higher. As for money management, stop loss moved to break even on trade number 5 so I am still risking two trades and 9 pips Also 7 trades for today, I think enough, hopefully they can last for good Lets wait and see results and later sum things up.
      EUR/JPY trade number 7 played out very well without any doubts.

      Stats: 1-1-2
      profit/loss: -46.3 USD
      pips: -10
      Balance: 9953.70 USD


      8. TRADE
      Number: 779235579
      pair: GBP/USD
      Type: Buy
      lot size: 7
      price: 1.5813 S1 1.5810
      take profit: 1.59
      stop loss: 1.5785
      result: To be announced
      profit/loss: To be announced
      reason
      Name:  8th trade.png
Views: 20
Size:  27.2 KB

      This trade got triggered unexpectedly because I had this pending order on Support 1 and that sell-off went all the way down to S1, so I am taking this one because pair is overbought as well and next few days there will be some news release that might boost pound a little bit, if not then I have tight stop loss of only 28 pips in case there is continuous movement to the downside.
      As for risk management, I have 4 trades opened but my trade number 5 is break even already, on trade number 4 risk is only 9 pips and on trade 6 risk is 20 pips as usual so I can easily open this trade without crossing my risk management


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