Daily Market Outlook By AceTraderfx

[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Jan 23 : Dollar trades mixed versus other major currencies on Wednesday


Market Review - 22/01/2014 21:38GMT

Dollar trades mixed versus other major currencies on Wednesday

The greenback traded mixed against other major rivals on Wednesday as market participants were waiting for more signals whether that Federal Reserve's will reduce its quantitative easing program at the conclusion of its upcoming policy meeting on January 29 to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion.

During the day, the single currency rose to 1.3580 in Asia and then dropped to 1.3535 in European morning due mainly to active cross-selling of euro versus sterling, however, cable's intra-day rally lent support to the single currency and price later rose further to 1.3584 in New York morning before easing.

Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar dropped briefly to 103.97 after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged following its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday and maintained its assessment that Japan's economy 'has continued to recover moderately', renewed demand for greenback lifted price sharply higher to 104.57 ahead of European morning and later rose to 104.59 near New York close.

Bank of Japan report stated that 'keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledges to increase monetary base as annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen; Japan core CPI expected 1.3% in FY2014/15 vs. 1.3% projected in Oct, excluding effect of sales tax hike in April 2014; Japan core CPI expected 1.9% in FY2015/16 vs. 1.9% projected in Oct, excluding effect of sales tax hike; BOJ board turns by 8-1 vote a proposal by Kiuchi to make 2 % inflation target a medium- to long-term goal; Japan GDP expected +1.4% in FY2014/15 vs. 1.5% projected in Oct; Japan GDP expected +1.5% FY2015.16 vs. 1.5% projected in Oct; Japan's economy recovering moderately with front-loaded increase in demand prior to sale tax hike being observed; Japan annual CPI growth likely to move around 1 to 1.5% for time being.'

The British pound rallied against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed that the rate of unemployment in the U.K. fell to 7.1% in November. During the day, although cable retreated after marginal gain above Tuesday's high of 1.6387 to 1.6492 in Asia, price found support at 1.6451 in European morning and surged sharply to 1.6553 due to a 'surprise' sharp drop in U.K. unemployment and BoE MPC vote outcome . Later, cable rose further to 1.6588 in New York morning before easing.

BoE showed MPC voted 9-0 to keep QE bond purchase total at 375 billion pounds and voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%. BoE said in the statement that 'It was now likely that the unemployment rate would reach the 7% threshold materially earlier than previously expected," the minutes said, but officials "saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate," the bank’s benchmark interest rate, "even if the 7% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future.'

On the data front, the ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits in U.K. fell by 24,000 in December, compared to expectations for a decline of 32,000.

In the other news, Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold at 1.00% and said 'downside risks to inflation have grown in importance; direction of next rate move to depend on data; sees inflation path lower than previous expected but still returning to the 2% target in about two years; stronger U.S. demand, recent C$ fall should help exports, business investment; no sign yet of rebalancing to export - and investment-led growth; fundamental drivers of growth and future inflation appear to be strengthening; output cap has shrunk by 1/4 point from Oct report to between 3/4% and 1-3/4%; sees soft landing in housing market; household debt/disposable income ratio to stabilize; risks from elevated household imbalances haven't materially changed; sees 2.5% growth in 2014 (prev. 2.3%) and in 2015 (prev. 2.6%); Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 2.5% (prev. 2.3%); core and total inflation to remain around 1% in H1 2014; total CPI at 0.9% Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 (prev. 1.3% and 1.2%); despite C$ depreciation, C$ remains strong and will continue to pose competitiveness challenges for non-commodity exports; C$ depreciation reflects improved U.S. growth prospects and reduced safe-haven effects; C$ depreciation will exert upward pressure on inflation.'

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand business manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan BOJ monthly economic report, France business climate, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU current account, manufacturing PMI, service PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, Canada retail sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, jobless claims, markit PMI, house price, US existing home sales and leading index.



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---------- Post added at 11:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:08 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD


DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3535
23 Jan 2014 00:41 GMT

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.3584, subsequent retreat suggests the recovery from Monday's 7-week low at 1.3508 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid trough, break would extend corrective decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 towards support at 1.3455/60, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and yield a correction later next week.

On the upside, only above 1.3584 would indicate a temporary low has been made there and bring stronger retracement of said fall to 1.3603.




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---------- Post added at 11:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:21 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD


DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3535
23 Jan 2014 00:41 GMT

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.3584, subsequent retreat suggests the recovery from Monday's 7-week low at 1.3508 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid trough, break would extend corrective decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 towards support at 1.3455/60, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and yield a correction later next week.

On the upside, only above 1.3584 would indicate a temporary low has been made there and bring stronger retracement of said fall to 1.3603.




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---------- Post added at 04:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:42 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD


DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2823
23 Jan 2014 06:57GMT

Usd's breach of y'day's 1.2803 high confirms MT
upmove has resumed n further gain to 1.2850/55 wud
be seen but res 1.2862 shud remain intact.

Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, below
wud signal temp. top has made n risk 1.2751.


STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2795

OBJECTIVE : 1.2755

STOP-LOSS : 1.2770

RES : 1.2839/1.2862/1.2900

SUP : 1.2771/1.2751/1.2709




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[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Jan 24: Euro rallies on Thursday as QE from ECB diminishes after data


Market Review - 23/01/2014 21:52GMT

Euro rallies on Thursday as QE from ECB diminishes after data

The single currency strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as expectations for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank diminished after stronger-than-expected data on euro zone private sector activity.

During the day, although euro traded sideways after retreating from Wednesday's high of 1.3584 to 1.3530 at Asian open, price jumped sharply to 1.3647 in European morning as data showed recovery in the euro area is strengthening due to a larger than expected increase in euro zone private sector activity this month. Later, euro rose further to 1.3685 in New York morning after the number of continuing jobless claims in U.S. remained above the three million mark for the second successive week before easing. Price extended gain to 1.3699 near New York close due to the sell off in global stock markets.

Market reported on Thursday that the euro zone’s composite output index rose to a 31-month high of 53.2 in January, up from a final reading of 52.1 in December, as growth picked up in Germany and the rate of decline eased in France. A separate report showed Germany's Manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in January , record at 56.3 versus 54.3 in previous month.

Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's initial bounce to 104.84 shortly after Asian opening, price came under pressure and retreated to 104.21 in European morning on declining Nikkei 225 index. The greenback later met another round of selling in part due to active cross-buying of yen and dropped to 103.49 in New York morning on poor U.S. jobless claims and manufacturing PMI data. The pair weakened further to 102.97 in near New York close due to the sell off in global stock markets.

U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 326,000, up from the previous week's revised total of 325,000. The number of people filing continuing unemployment claims rose to 3.056 million up from 3.022 million in the week to January 11. Another report showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI declined to 53.7 this month from a final reading of 55.0 in December.

Cable rose in tandem with euro on Thursday after finding support at 1.6557 in Asia and price then penetrated previous high of 1.6605 (January 2nd) to a fresh 2-year peak of 1.6637 in New York morning n then 1.6644 near NY close on dollar's broad based weakness.

In other news, BoE's Fisher said on Thursday that 'output growing too slow to support rapid real wage rise and big fall in unemployment; inflation pressures diminishing but strong GDP growth not guaranteed; no immediate need to tighten when unemployment falls to 7%, must allow economy to grow strongly for some time; "still some way off" from raising interest rates, MPC must avoid choking off recovery.'

Data to be release on Friday:

U.K. BBA mortgage approvals and Canada CPI.




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---------- Post added at 11:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR


USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12170
24 Jan 2014 02:14GMT

Usd's rebound fm 12040 to 12165 signals pullback
fm 12275 is over there n consolidation with upside
bias wud be seen further gain to 12175 n 12200.

Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, below
risk weakness to 12085 but 12040 shud hold.


STRATEGY : 12170

POSITION : Long at 12110

OBJECTIVE : 12170

RES : 12175/12255/12275

SUP : 12125/12085/12040



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---------- Post added at 03:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:17 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 24: Intra-day Recommendations on Major USD/JPY


Intra-day Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
24 Jan 2014 06:04 GMT

INTRA-DAY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 103.32

Despite dlr's brief but sharp retreat from 103.59 to 103.09, present rebound due to the recovery in Nikkei-225 index suggests choppy consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen n gain to 103.40/45 is likely to be seen.

However, 103.59 should hold.
Stand aside n look to sell for day trade as below yesterday's 102.97 low yields re-test of 102.85.




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[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Jan 27: Yen and Swiss franc rally on risk aversion


Market Review - 24/01/2014 19:28GMT

Yen and Swiss franc rally on risk aversion

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc surged against U.S. currency on renewed risk aversion on Friday due to the selloff in global stock markets. Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC 40 closed down 1.7%, 2.6% n 2.9% respectively whilst Dow Jones index fell by more than 250 points to close below 16000. The greenback tumbled to as low as 102.00 and 0.8904 versus the Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively.

The single currency traded with a firm undertone in Asia and then climbed to 1.3740 at European midday due to dollar's broad-based weakness before retreating briefly to 1.3669 in New York morning. Euro tumbled against Swiss franc to 1.2227.

The British pound rallied to a fresh 3-year high of 1.6668 against U.S. currency on Friday on continued speculation the Bank of England could raise interest rates before the end of the year, however, active profit-taking knocked price lower. Cable tanked to 1.6478 after BoE Governor Carney's downbeat comments. BOE's Carney said appreciation of sterling will hold back expansion of net exports.

In other news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he did not see deflation in the euro area, which he said is experiencing a "weak, fragile and uneven" recovery. Draghi added that the ECB's "very accommodative" monetary policy is being passed into the euro zone economy; the other thing we are seeing in the last 3-4 months, is that both the improvement in financial markets and our very accommodative monetary policy in place since end 2011.

Data to be released next week :

Japan trade balance, Germany import price index, Ifo business climate, current assessment, expectations, U.S. new home sales on Monday. Australia. New Zealand financial market will be closed due to public holiday.

Australia NAB business confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, U.K. GDP, U.S. durable goods, S&P home price, consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac leading economic index, U.K. nationwide house prices, Germany consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, U.K. FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.

Japan retail sales, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment rate, U.K mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. annual GDP, PCE core, personal consumption, jobless claims, pending home sales on Thursday.

New Zealand trade balance, Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, national CPI, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Lloyds business barometer, France PPI, Italy unemployment rate, PPI, EU CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. housing starts, personal income, spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, U. of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday. Financial markets in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam will be closed for Chinese New Year holiday.



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---------- Post added at 02:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:33 PM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Outlook on Cross EUR/JPY


INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 140.25
27 Jan 2014 04:28GMT

Although euro's intra-day rally after initial
brief break of Fri's low at 139.76 (NY) to a fresh
6-week bottom at 139.20 suggests a temp. low has
been made n choppy trading is in store, reckon 140.
20/30 wud cap upside n yield subsequent retreat.

Hold short for 139.85 n exit on decline as 139.
45/50 wud remain intact. Abv 140.51 risks 140.80.



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[foji]

There are the many of the times opposite results are there in the forex as a few days ago on 23 jan 2013 was a news update about the GBP/USD was in sell but due to the pressure that was going up in 150 pips and then comes downward from 1.6402 to 1.6550 and then downward

[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Euro retreats ahead of Fed meeting


Market Review - 27/01/2014 21:28GMT

Euro retreats ahead of Fed meeting


The single currency traded with a soft bias against the dollar on Monday as expectations for a further reduction to the Federal Reserve's stimulus program after this Wednesday's FOMC meeting continued to support demand for the dollar.

During the day, although euro rebounded from 1.3669 in early Asia and then rose to 1.3716 in European morning due after data showed that German business confidence rose to the highest level in 2-1/2 years in January, renewed dollar's intra-day firmness pressured from there and the single currency later dropped to 1.3653 in New York morning before trading sideways.

The German research institute Ifo said on Monday that its business climate index rose to 110.6 in January, above expectation for a reading of 110.0 and up from 109.5 in December, indicating that businesses in the euro zone's largest economy had a strong start to the year.

Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's initial selloff below Friday's low at 102.00 to 101.77 on continued risk on continued risk aversion in thin trading conditions in early trading hours on Monday, lack of follow-through selling triggered broad-based short-covering and price rebounded to 102.41 at Asian open. Later, dollar climbed higher to 102.77 in European morning and then 102.93 but renewed cross-buying of yen due to risk aversion pressured price to 102.20 in New York morning.

Cable remained under pressure ahead of Asian open on Monday and dropped to 1.6471 but expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than anticipated after last week's U.K. unemployment data boosted demand for the British pound and sterling rose to 1.6571 in European morning and then 1.6588 in early New York trading before easing.

Some news over the weekend worth mentioning. Reuters reported IMF MD Christine Lagarde told the economic forum in Davos that Eurozone inflation is "way below target" and that deflation is a potential risk for the region. In response to this, ECB President Mario Draghi said ECB is ready to act if inflation went lower than forecast and reiterated that interest rates would remain low or go lower for an extended period of time.

Data to be release on Tuesday:

Australia NAB business confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, U.K. GDP, U.S. durable goods, S&P home price and consumer confidence.



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---------- Post added at 10:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:09 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY


Daily Recommendations on USD/JPY
28 Jan 2014 00:07 GMT

DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 102.55

Although USD's rebound from Mon's 7-week bottom of 101.77 to 102.93 signals recent fall from Jan's 5-yr peak at 105.45 has made a minor low,
subsequent retreat to 102.20 in NY suggests as long as 102.93 holds, decline would resume to 101.62, then 101.40.





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---------- Post added 01-29-2014 at 09:54 AM ---------- Previous post was 01-28-2014 at 10:26 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 29: Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies ahead of Fed's meeting


Market Review - 28/01/2014 21:33GMT

Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies ahead of Fed's meeting

The greenback traded mixed versus other major rivals on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants are expecting that Fed will cut its asset purchase program by another $10 billion, to $75 billion per month after December last year.

During the day, although the single currency retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.3688 ahead of European open and then tanked to 1.3629 in tandem with cable in European morning, price rebounded strongly to 1.3686 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based selloff after disappointing U.S. durable goods orders reports. Later, euro stabilized around 1.3660 later and traded in a relatively narrow range for rest of the New York session.

U.S. the Commerce Department said on Tuesday that durable goods orders tumbled 4.3% last month, confounding expectations for a 1.8% gain. Orders for durable goods in November were revised to a 2.6% increase from a previously reported gain of 3.4%.

U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen after finding support at 102.49 in Australia on Tuesday and penetrated Monday's high of 102.93 to 103.25 in early European trading in part due to cross-selling in yen, however, broad-based weakness in greenback during the New York morning pressured price back to 102.63 before rebounding on short-covering.

Cable fluctuated widely on Tuesday. Despite extending gain from Monday's low at 1.6471 to an intra-day high of 1.6627 ahead of European open, price fell to 1.6536 in European morning after preliminary data showed that the U.K. economy grew in line with expectations in the fourth quarter but added to uncertainty over the Bank of England's forward guidance. Later, price climbed back to 1.6578 and then higher to 1.6615 in New York morning before easing.

Report from U.K showed that the economy grew 0.7% in the final three months of 2013, slightly down from growth of 0.8% in the previous quarter, and expanded 2.8% from a year earlier.

On the data front, the Conference Board said its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to 80.7 this month from a downwardly revised 77.5 in December. Market had expected the index to rise to 78.9.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia Westpac leading economic index, U.K. nationwide house prices, Germany consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator and U.S. FOMC rate decision.



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---------- Post added at 10:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 29: Intra-day recommendation on Major USD/JPY


INTRA-DAY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 103.14

29 Jan 2014 00:52 GMT

Despite dlr's brief jump in Aust. abv Tue's 103. 25 high to 103.44 due to rebound in emerging market currencies.

Intra-day retreat suggests corrective rise fm Mon's 7-week low at 101.77 has made a minor top n pullback to 102.95/00 may be seen.



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---------- Post added at 11:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD


DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2728
29 Jan 2014 00:31GMT

Dlr's weakness vs Asian peers due to rebound in
emerging market currencies Tue suggests decline fm
last Fri's 4-mth top at 1.2830 wud head to 1.2678.

Venture selling for this move but 1.2651 wud hold
n only abv 1.2756 (NY) risks 1.2774 b4 down.


STRATEGY : Sell at market

OBJECTIVE : 1.2678

STOP-LOSS : 1.2758

RES : 1.2756/1.2774/1.2820

SUP : 1.2709/1.2684/1.2631



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[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Jan 30: Yen rises to a 7-week high on risk aversion after Fed cuts bond buying to 65B


Market Review - 29/01/2014 21:54GMT

Yen rises to a 7-week high on risk aversion after Fed cuts bond buying to 65B

Although U.S. dollar rose initially above Wednesday's high of 103.26 to 103.45 against the Japanese yen in Australia, active cross-buying of yen pressured capped intra-day gain there and price later tumbled to 101.99 in New York morning as concerns over global emerging markets lingered ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement. Later, the greenback dropped to a session low of 101.85 on renewed risk aversion due to the selloff in U.S. stock market after Fed kept interest rate unchanged n reduced bond buying to $65B as widely expected.

The Fed announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly bond buying to $65 billion as widely expected as it stuck to plans to wind down its extraordinary stimulus. The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 189.77 points (1.19%) to 15738.79, 18.3 points (1.02%) to 1774.2, and 46.53 points (1.14%) to 4051.43 respectively.

The single currency swung widely on Wednesday as despite rebounding from Asian low at 1.3648 to 1.3684 in European morning due to unexpected rise in Germany's Gfk consumer climate going into February, cross-selling of euro pressured price lower from there and euro tanked to a session low of 1.3603 versus dollar after European Central Bank council member Christian Noyer said 'any rise in the currency's exchange rate would be negative.' Later, the single currency rebounded strongly in New York morning to 1.3677 on short-covering and then stabilized.

On the data front, Germany's Gfk consumer climate rose to its highest level since August 2007 to 8.2, from 7.7 in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 7.6.

Although cable traded sideways in Asia after finding support at 1.6561 in Australia, price rebounded to 1.6607 in tandem with euro in European morning but only to drop to 1.6526 in part due to renewed cross-selling of sterling versus euro in New York morning before recovering. Eur/gbp cross dropped briefly below Tuesday's low at 0.8223 to 0.8220 in Wednesday's New York morning and then recovered.

The New Zealand dollar nose-dived to 0.8177 after RBNZ kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. RBNZ said expects to start returning rates to more normal levels soon n will raise rates as needed to keep inflation near 2%. RBNZ said scale, speed of rate rises will depend on future data; high NZ dollar offsetting inflation but current levels unsustainable in long run; price pressures rising over next two years; housing market appears to be moderating; expects GDP to continue around 3.5% over coming year; sees uncertainty about stimulus with drawal by major economies, EM economies affected.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Japan retail sales, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment rate, U.K mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. annual GDP, PCE core, personal consumption, jobless claims and pending home sales.



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---------- Post added at 10:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:08 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Outlook on Minor USD/CAD


DAILY USD/CAD OUTLOOK - 1.1175
29 Jan 2014 23:05GMT

Usd's rebound fm 1.1103 in NY signals pullback fm
Weed's fresh 4-1/2 year top at 1.1187 has ended n
LT uptrend shud resume to 1.1245/50.

Venture buying for this move n only below 1.1103
confirms temp. top is made, risks 1.1078, 1.1031/35


STRATEGY : Buy at market



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---------- Post added at 04:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:28 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Jan 30 : Daily Technical Outlook on Major EUR/USD


DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
30 Jan 2014 01:01GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning up

21 HR EMA
1.3659

55 HR EMA
1.3661

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
50

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias

Resistance
1.3740 - Last Fri's high
1.3716 - Mon's high
1.3688 - Tue's high

Support
1.3603 - Y'day's low
1.3584 - Last Wed's high, now sup
1.3508 - Jan 20 low

. EUR/USD - 1.3662 ... The single currency went through a 'roller-coaster'
session on Wed. Despite a brief bounce to 1.3685 in Europe, euro retreated after
failing to penetrate previous res area at 1.3686/89 n then tumbled to session
low of 1.3603 in NY morning b4 rebounding to 1.3677 ahead of FOMC.

. Despite y'day's brief breach of indicated sup at 1.3625 to 1.3603, subse
quent bounce to 1.3677 suggests further 'choppy' consolidation abv last Mon's 7-
week trough at 1.3508 wud be seen n as long as said y'day's low holds, upside
bias still remains. However, a firm breach of 1.3686/89 is needed to signal the
pullback fm last Fri's high at 1.3740 has ended there n extend upmove to 1.3716
(Mon's high), abv suggesst upmove fm 1.3508 has resumed n yield re-test of 1.37
40 (Fri's high), abv wud bring subsequent headway to 1.3812/33, break confirms
correction fm Dec's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has indeed ended n yield re-test of
said res next week.

. In view of abv analysis, buying euro on dips in anticipation of another
rebound is cautiously favoured. On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3584
(last Wed's high, now sup) signals recovery fm 1.3508 is over, 1.3530, 1.3508.





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[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Feb 4: U.S. dollar tumbles versus Japanese yen after weak US ISM manufacturing data


Market Review - 03/02/2014 18:16GMT

U.S. dollar tumbles versus Japanese yen after weak US ISM manufacturing data

The greenback tumbled against the Japanese yen after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing index which dropped to 51.3 in January versus economists' forecast of 56.0 and 56.5 in December. Dollar dropped from 102.41 to as low at 100.77 in New York before stabilizing.

Despite euro's early brief breach of last Friday's low of 1.3479 to a fresh 2-month low at 1.3477, short-covering lifted price and the single currency rebounded briefly to 1.3523 after the release of weak U.S. ISM MFG data and later rose to 1.3536 in thin New York session due to the sell-off in global stock markets.

Dow Jones index nose-dived by more than 300 points whilst UK's FTSE, Germany's DAX and France's CAC closed down by 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX tumbled by 2.5% and 1.8% respectively.

The British pound dropped after the release of U.K. Jan manufacturing PMI which came in lower-than-expected at 56.7, previous reading downwardly revised to 57.2. Cable fell sharply fm 1.6449 to 1.6290.

In other news, U.S. Treasury's Lew says "congress should act quickly; unnecessary delays or political posturing could trigger a crisis; U.S. would start missing payments on its obligations 'very soon' after extraordinary measures exhausted; once extraordinary measures exhausted, U.S. cash balance to decline faster than it would at other times of year; administration would exhaust extraordinary measures by end of Feb if debt ceiling not raised."

ECB's Constancio says "bank area front loading preparations for comprehensive assessment; banks with capital shortfall in stress test baseline scenario will have to raise capital in nearer term; capital shortfall from adverse scenario can be dealt with over more extended period."

Tuesday will release of Eurozone PPI, U.S. redbook retail sales, factory orders and durable goods.




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---------- Post added at 11:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 AM ----------

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AceTraderFx Feb 4: Intra-day Market Outlook on Major USD/JPY


Intra-day Recommendations Major: USD/JPY
04 Feb 2014 02:13 GMT

INTRA-DAY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 101.35

Although US Dollar has continued to edge higher in Asia after yesterday's sell-off to a 2-1/2 month low at 100.77 in NY, as this move looks corrective, reckon 101.44 would limit upside and daily bearishness remains for another decline later.




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AceTraderFx Feb 4: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR


USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 1.2205
04 Feb 2014 06:28GMT

Despite y'day's rise to 12250, intra-day gains in
Asian currencies suggests consolidation below Dec's
5-year peak at 12275 wud continue.

Exit prev. long at 12210 as below 1.2190 wud risk
stronger retracement to 12165/70 later this week.


STRATEGY : Exit long

POSITION : Long at 12210

RES : 12250/12275/12300

SUP : 12190/12165/12140



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AceTraderFx Feb 4: Daily Technical Market Outlook on Major USD/JPY


DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
04 Feb 2014 00:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Falling

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.47

55 HR EMA
101.91

Trend Hourly Chart
Falling

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
36

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent decline

Resistance
102.41 - Last Fri's NY high
102.14 - Y'day's NY high
101.77 - Last Mon's low, now res

Support
100.77 - Y'day's NY low
100.62 - Sep 11 2013 high
100.30 - Equality proj. of 104.92-101.77 fm 103.45


. USD/JPY - 101.18... Despite dlr's recovery fm 101.98 (NZ) to 102.41 in
Asia on Mon, broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion pressured price below
last Mon's 7-week low at 101.77 to 101.67 in Europe. Later, dlr tumbled to 100.
77 in NY after release of disappointing U.S. ISM manuf. report b4 recovering.

. Looking at the daily chart, y'day's sharp selloff below 101.77 to 100.77
confirms decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 to retrace intermediate MT rise
fm 95.81 (Aug low in 2013) has resumed n despite subsequent recovery, as price
is still trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting bias for dlr remains
to the downside, a breach of said sup shud send dlr lower to next downside obj.
at 100.30, being equality projection of intermediate fall fm 104.92-101.77 mea-
sured fm 103.45, however, a daily close below there is needed to retain bearish
prospect of further losses twd 99.60 (50% r fm 93.75) later this week.

. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipation
of aforesaid fall is favoured n only abv 102.14 (y'day's NY morning high) wud
indicate a temporary low is made n may risk stronger retracement to 102.41,
being y'day's n as well as last Fri's NY high, b4 down.






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[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Feb 5: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD


DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3520
05 Feb 2014 01:06 GMT

The single currency rebounds from Monday's low at 1.3477 to 1.3539 on Tuesday suggests choppy trading would be seen but as long as resistance at 1.3574 holds.

Daily bearishness remains for another sell-off later this week, breach of said support would indicate decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has once again resumed and then further weakness to 1.3455 and 1.3410/20 would follow.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3603/09 would shift risk to upside instead for stronger retracement to 1.3640/50 and possibly 1.3685/88.




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AceTraderFx Feb 5: U.S. dollar rises versus Japanese yen as stock markets rebound


Market Review - 04/02/2014 18:25GMT

U.S. dollar rises versus Japanese yen as stock markets rebound

U.S. dollar fell initially against the Japanese yen to a fresh 10-week low at 100.76 in Asia as Nikkei-225 plunged by more than 4%, however, investors bought back U.S. dollar as global stock markets pared most of early losses.

Britain's FTSE 100 n Germany's DAX closed down by 0.2% n 0.6% respectively whilst France's CAC-40 closed up by 0.3%. Dow Jones index traded in +ve territory and rose by around 87 points to 15460 in NY midday. U.S. dollar rebounded strongly to 101.67 in New York.

The single currency traded inside a relatively narrow range of 1.3494-1.3539 as focus was on other currency pairs. The British pound rallied against the U.S. dollar from 1.6257 to 1.6353 after the release of much stronger-than-expected UK construction PMI.

The Australian dollar surged from 0.8730 to 0.8943, more than 2%, on Tuesday after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped its easing bias toward interest rates and toned down its long-term call for the currency to weaken. New Zealand also rallied strongly from 0.8052 to as high as 0.8227.

In other news, Fed's Evan said there is uncertainty about sustainable rate of unemployment; believe 5-5.25% is attainable; a strongly growing economy will address many of the problems in the job market; Fed will eventually allow assets to roll off balance sheet during exit from super-easy policy; Fed's balance sheet will eventually be well south of $4 trln, but will be bigger than pre-crisis; Yellen will continue to improve Fed's communications, transparency; current pace of taper is a 'reasonable', 'modest' pace; took longer than expected for QE3 to kick in to jump start.

Wednesday will see the release of Germany's, Britain's and Eurozone PMI respectively; Eurozone retail sales; U.S. ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing data.



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[Acetraderfx]

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AceTraderFx Feb 6: U.S. dollar rebounds as global stock markets stabilise


Market Review - 05/02/2014 18:33GMT

U.S. dollar rebounds as global stock markets stabilise

The greenback fell from Asian high at 101.77 to 100.77/80 in New York morning against the Japanese yen after the release of slightly less-than-expected U.S. ADP employment data, however, the pair jumped to 101.63 after the release of stronger-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI data which came in at 54.0 versus economists' forecast of 53.7 and well above previous reading of 53.0.

Euro fluctuated wildly on Wednesday. Despite the brief bounce from European low at 1.3499 to 1.3555 in New York morning after the release of less-than-expected US ADP employment, the single currency dropped swiftly to 1.3504 before trading sideways later in the day.

On the data front, eurozone retail sales data which came in at -1.6% m/m n -1.0% y/y respectively versus economists' forecast of -0.7% m/m n 1.5% y/y with downwardly revised 0.9% m/m n 1.3% y/y increase in November.

The British pound weakened to a fresh 6-week low of 1.6252 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. services PMI which came in at 58.3 in January versus previous reading of 58.8 in December, however, cable rebounded to around 1.6333 on short-covering in New York.

In other news, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser warned of looming communications problems if the central bank keeps buying assets while, as he expects, the U.S. unemployment rate falls below 6.5% some time in the first half of 2014, from the current 6.7%. Plosser said 'the U.S. Federal Reserve should wind down its bond purchases faster than planned and end it before mid-year.'

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said the year had begun with some momentum, despite the recent drop in stock markets, and further reductions in the pace of central bank asset purchases would be appropriate as long as the economy remained on track. Lockhart said 'the U.S. Federal Reserve will probably keep steadily dialing back its asset purchases and wind them down completely by late 2014 but should be patient on raising interest rates.'




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AceTraderFx Feb 6: Daily Market Outlook on Major – EUR/USD


DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3531
06 Feb 2014 01:10 GMT

Despite euro's volatile trading on Wednesday, as price has retreated after being capped below yesterday's New York morning high of 1.3555, suggesting recovery from Monday's 2-month low at 1.3477 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, however, breach of said support is needed to confirm decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has resumed and extend weakness to next retracement objective at 1.3455 and later towards 1.3399.

On the upside, only a firm breach of chart resistance at 1.3574 would confirm a temporary low is in place and turn outlook mildly bullishness instead for gain to 1.3603/09 and then 1.3640




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AceTraderFx Feb 6: Daily Technical Outlook on Major - EUR/USD


DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
06 Feb 2014 00:41GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3527

55 HR EMA
1.3523

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
58

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes

Resistance
1.3603 - Last Wed's low
1.3574 - Last Fri's high
1.3555 - Y'day's high

Support
1.3477 - Mon's 2-month low
1.3455 - 38.2% r of 1.2745-1.3894
1.3399 - Nov 21 low

. EUR/USD - 1.3507 ... The single currency fluctuated wildly in Wed NY session. Despite a brief bounce fm European 1.3499 low to 1.3555 in NY morning after release of less-than-expected U.S. ADP employment, euro dropped swiftly to 1.3504 on upbeat U.S. ISM non-manuf. report b4 recovering to 1.3546.

. Looking at the hourly chart, the erratic rise fm Mon's 2-month low at 1.3477 to 1.3555 (Wed) is viewed as a minor retracement of recent decline fm Jan's 2-year peak at 1.3894 n as long as indicated res at 1.3574 res (last Fri's high) holds, outlook remains bearish for aforesaid fall to correct the intermediate MT rise fm 2013 trough at 1.2745 to resume after consolidation, below said sup wud extend weakness to next downside objective at 1.3455, this is the 'minimum' 38.2% r of 1.2745-1.3894, however, previous daily sup at 1.3399 wud contain downside n yield a much needed strg rebound later this week as 'bullish convergences' wud appear on the hourly oscillators on next decline.

. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of a re-test of 1.3477. On the upside, only abv 1.3603/09 (last Wed's low, now res n 50% r of 1.3740-1.3477 resp.) wud confirm a temp. low is made n risk retrace. twd 1.3677.







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[Acetraderfx]

*********Feb 7, 2014********



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AceTraderFx Feb 7: Euro jumps from 1.3483 to 1.3619 as ECB refraines from...


Market Review - 06/02/2014 18:10GMT

Euro jumps from 1.3483 to 1.3619 as ECB refraines from announcing any additional stimulus measures

Despite brief drop to 1.3483, the single currency jumped to as high as 1.3619 on Thursday after ECB's president Draghi said there is no eurozone deflation problem and need to wait for more data before taking action, following ECB kept interest unchanged.

The greenback rallied from 101.25 to 102.00 against the Japanese yen due to improved risk appetite (euro rose strongly against the Japanese yen from 136.80 to 138.80) as global stock markets rebounded.

On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 20,000, bigger-than-expected, to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 last week. The U.S. trade deficit widened to $38.7 billion in December as exports fell and imports rose.

Despite early brief drop to 1.6272, the British pound rebounded after the Bank of England kept interest range unchanged at 0.5% as widely expected. BOE also left QE asset purchase total unchanged at 375 billion sterling. BOE makes no statement after monetary policy decision. Cable later rebounded to 1.6348 on short-covering in tandem with euro in New York.

Australian dollar extended gain to 0.8981 against U.S. currency after the release of Australia's trade data as the exports exceeded imports by A$468 million ($420 million) in December.

In other news, European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer told Les Echos daily in an interview to appear in its Friday edition that 'the euro zone's fragile economic recovery and low inflation is "not normal, but not alarming."

Friday will see the release of RBA policy statement, Japan's leading indicators, Germany's trade data, U.K. trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, German industrial production, Canada's unemployment rate and the important U.S. non-farm payrolls.



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AceTraderFx Feb 7: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD


DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3590
Update Time: 07 Feb 2014 01:35 GMT

Yesterday rally from 1.3482 to 1.3619 on Thursday after ECB'S President Mario Draghi refraining from any additional stimulus measures announcement signals decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has made a temporary low earlier at Monday's 2-month trough at 1.3477.

Consolidation with upside bias remains, above said overnight resistance at 1.3619 would bring stronger retracement to 1.3640 and then 1.3665/70, however, near term over bought condition should cap price below chart res sat 1.3686 and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3508 (previous daily support level) would indicate aforesaid correction is over instead and bring re-test of 1.3477, break, 1.3455 and then towards 1.3399.




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AceTradeFx Feb 7 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW


DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1075.2
07 Feb 2014 05:41GMT

Despite dlr's recovery after opening lower to 1073.0,
fall fm Tue's 4-month top at 1089.9 shud head
twd 1070 after consolidation but 1067.8 wud hold.

Stand aside n look to sell on pullback next week
as 1080 wud cap upside n yield another selloff.



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AceTraderFx Feb 7: Daily Technical Outlook on Major EUR/USD


DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
07 Feb 2014 00:28GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.3571

55 HR EMA
1.3548

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm overbought

13 HR RSI
64

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
1.3686 - 50% r of 1.3894-1.3477
1.3640 - 38.2% r of 1.3894-1.3477
1.3619 - Y'day's high

Support
1.3555 - Wed's high, now sup
1.3508 - Jan 20 low
1.3477 - Mon's 2-month low


. EUR/USD - 1.3507 ... Euro went through a 'roller-coaster' session y'day.
Despite brief drop to 1.3482 when ECB press conference began, solid bids abv
Mon's 2-mth low at 1.3477 lifted price n euro surged to as high as 1.3619 after
ECB's President Draghi refrained fm announcing any additional stimulus measures.

. Looking at the biiger picture, y'day's rally to 1.3619 signals recent
decline fm Jan's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has formed a temporary low at 1.3477 on
Mon n as long as 1.3555 (Wed's high, now sup) holds, 'choppy' consolidation with
upside bias remains for a correction to 1.3636/40 (being 61.8% r of 1.3740-1.34
77 n the minimum 38.2% r of 1.3894-1.3477 respectively), however, high readings
on hourly oscillators shud cap price at 1.3686/88 (50% r of 1.3894-1.3477 n Jan
28 high) n yield retreat later. Looking ahead, abv 1.3686/88 wud bring further
gain to chart res at 1.3740 but a daily close abv there is needed confirm the
major correction fm 1.3894 is over.

. In view of abv analysis, buying euro on intra-day pullback in anticipa-
tion of further gain is favoured. On the downside, only below 1.3536/44 wud
signal recovery fm 1.3508 is over instead n risk re-test of 1.3477 sup.





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