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    Thread: Trading recommendatios from Sebastian Seliga

    1. #1
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      Default Trading recommendatios from Sebastian Seliga

      USDCAD H4 ABNALYSYS

      General Overview:

      After completing five impulsive wave to the upside and almost perfect harmonic symmetry of 1to1 harmonic pattern USDCAD Name:  usdcad_h4.jpg
Views: 335
Size:  382.1 KBis in corrective mode, whre first two waves are done and now one more wave to the downside reamins to complete the cycle.

      First target level for wave c is the previous lows @ 1.04563 level. If this one is broken, then wave c might get extended to 1.04315 where 23%Fibo is.

      In longer perspective I think the support @ 1.04204 should be tested again.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.06456- WR1
      1.05536 - Swing High
      1.05413 - 1.05536 - SUPPLY ZONE
      1.04315 - 23.6%Fibo
      1.03963 - Weekly Pivot
      1.03900 - 1.04204 - BIG DEMAND AREA/KEY LEVEL

      Trading Recommendation:
      Buy the dips of wave c: first level is 1.04550 with tight SL and keep the R/R ratio min.2:1 please. If level of 1.04563 will be broken, please notice that 23.6%Fibo might be hit @ 1.04315.

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    2. #2
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      EUR/JPY H1 & H4 Update - Bigger charts are here:
      Attached Images    

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    3. #3
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      Default EUR/JPY H1 & H4

      General Overview:

      Price is in a complex and time consuming corrective wave (Y) that needs to be finished before any impulsive development will happen.

      Currently market had positioned itself in the middle of the 129.88 - 124.88 range so careful trading is advised.

      There is possible trade that impatient traders can perform: any of the trend line break with tight SL might bring some extra pips but for real moves on this market traders need to wait until trading range will be broken.

      Due to higher cycle levels current bias is to the downside, so red trend line break in the direcion of wave (Y) target is favourited.


      Support/Resistance:


      129.88 - Swing High

      128.30 - Golden TL resistance

      128.07 - Weekly Pivot

      128.00 - 38% Fibo

      127.41 - 50% Fibo

      126.83 - 61% Fibo

      125.52 - 124.97 - DEMAND ZONE

      123.64 - Ideal Target for wave (c) of (Y) where (a)=(c)

      Trading Recommendation:


      Stay away until range will be broken/target hit and clear pattern emerge OR try to trade any of the trend line break with tight SL and relistic TP as trading middle of the range inside of the corrective wave is rather difficult. Bias is to the downside, so red trend line break in the area of 127.00 127.90 in the direcion of wave (Y) target is favourited. First TP would be 125.52. If this DEMAND level will not hold then target is 123.64.

      Seb





      ---------- Post added 06-27-2013 at 11:04 AM ---------- Previous post was 06-26-2013 at 04:03 PM ----------

      General Overview:

      Price has finished corrective wave a and then bounced from red trend line in another corrective wave b and went as high as Weekly Pivot level @ 128.07 - as indicated yesterday.

      Now it all depends on Weekly Pivot: if it hold the line, then downside move is expected to the area of 23%Fibo first, and the red trend line level again.

      Due to higher cycle levels current bias is to the downside, so red trend line break in the direcion of wave (Y) target is favourited.

      Support/Resistance:

      129.88 - Swing High

      128.30 - Golden TL resistance

      128.07 - Weekly Pivot

      128.52 - 61% Fibo

      128.20 - 50% Fibo

      127.33 - 23% Fibo

      125.52 - 124.97 - DEMAND ZONE

      123.64 - Ideal Target for wave (c) of (Y) where (a)=(c)

      Trading Recommendation:

      Stay away until range will be broken/target hit and clear pattern emerge

      OR

      Intraday: Possible short trade setup at the level of Weekly Pivot and eventually up to 61%Fibo with SL just above 61%Fibo.

      Medium term:

      Try to trade any of the trend line break with tight SL and relistic TP as trading middle of the range inside of the corrective wave is rather difficult. Bias is to the downside, so red trend line break in the area of 127.00 127.90 in the direcion of wave (Y) target is favourited. First TP would be 125.52. If this DEMAND level will not hold then target is 123.64.

      Seb



      ---------- Post added at 12:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:04 AM ----------

      General Overview:


      Short term Elliott Wave labeling has been changed, as I expect more upside to come.


      Anyway, support @ 1.04207 migh be considered as tested and now price have bounced from it but did not broke the descending golden trend line yet.Wave W of correction is ready, so there is wave X and wave Y left to complete the cycle.

      Wave W is abc Irregular Flat correction

      If this trend line will be broken, then next immediate resistance level is @ 1.04921 area as a wave of previous wave iv. Next resistance is @ 1.05266 - if this one will be broken, please prepare for the test of a recent high.

      If the trend line will not be broken then immediate test of recen low is in vew. If this low will be broken, then next support area is Weekly Pivot level @ 1.03963.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.06456- WR1
      1.05536 - Swing High
      1.05413 - 1.05536 - SUPPLY ZONE/KEY ARA
      1.04315 - 23.6%Fibo
      1.03963 - Weekly Pivot
      1.03900 - 1.04204 - BIG DEMAND AREA/KEY LEVEL

      Trading Recommendation:


      INTRADAY: Buy the dips with SL below the recent low and TP @ 1.04561. And then:

      - if this resistance is broken, then next TP @ 1.04921 or even 1.05266.

      - if this resistance is not broken, then short 1.04561 level with sL just above it and TP @ 1.04207 or even 1.03963

      Seb

      Please use right-mouse click to see full screen chart.




      ---------- Post added at 12:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:06 PM ----------

      General Overview:


      Short term Elliott Wave labeling has been changed, as I expect more upside to come.


      Anyway, support @ 1.04207 migh be considered as tested and now price have bounced from it but did not broke the descending golden trend line yet.Wave W of correction is ready, so there is wave X and wave Y left to complete the cycle.

      Wave W is abc Irregular Flat correction

      If this trend line will be broken, then next immediate resistance level is @ 1.04921 area as a wave of previous wave iv. Next resistance is @ 1.05266 - if this one will be broken, please prepare for the test of a recent high.

      If the trend line will not be broken then immediate test of recen low is in vew. If this low will be broken, then next support area is Weekly Pivot level @ 1.03963.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.06456- WR1
      1.05536 - Swing High
      1.05413 - 1.05536 - SUPPLY ZONE/KEY ARA
      1.04315 - 23.6%Fibo
      1.03963 - Weekly Pivot
      1.03900 - 1.04204 - BIG DEMAND AREA/KEY LEVEL

      Trading Recommendation:


      INTRADAY: Buy the dips with SL below the recent low and TP @ 1.04561. And then:

      - if this resistance is broken, then next TP @ 1.04921 or even 1.05266.

      - if this resistance is not broken, then short 1.04561 level with sL just above it and TP @ 1.04207 or even 1.03963

      Seb

      Please use right-mouse click to see full screen chart.


      http://sebrecommendations.blogspot.c...-27062013.html

      ---------- Post added at 12:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 PM ----------

      USD/CAD H1 & H4 Update on 27 June 2013

      General Overview:


      Short term Elliott Wave labeling has been changed, as I expect more upside to come.


      Anyway, support @ 1.04207 migh be considered as tested and now price have bounced from it but did not broke the descending golden trend line yet.Wave W of correction is ready, so there is wave X and wave Y left to complete the cycle.

      Wave W is abc Irregular Flat correction

      If this trend line will be broken, then next immediate resistance level is @ 1.04921 area as a wave of previous wave iv. Next resistance is @ 1.05266 - if this one will be broken, please prepare for the test of a recent high.

      If the trend line will not be broken then immediate test of recen low is in vew. If this low will be broken, then next support area is Weekly Pivot level @ 1.03963.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.06456- WR1
      1.05536 - Swing High
      1.05413 - 1.05536 - SUPPLY ZONE/KEY ARA
      1.04315 - 23.6%Fibo
      1.03963 - Weekly Pivot
      1.03900 - 1.04204 - BIG DEMAND AREA/KEY LEVEL

      Trading Recommendation:


      INTRADAY: Buy the dips with SL below the recent low and TP @ 1.04561. And then:

      - if this resistance is broken, then next TP @ 1.04921 or even 1.05266.

      - if this resistance is not broken, then short 1.04561 level with sL just above it and TP @ 1.04207 or even 1.03963

      Seb

      Please use right-mouse click to see full screen chart.




      ---------- Post added 06-28-2013 at 11:48 AM ---------- Previous post was 06-27-2013 at 12:32 PM ----------




      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 28 June 2013
      General Overview:

      As suggested before, playing the golden trend line brak might have been quite profitable.

      The main count has been re-labeled and the currect price action shows further lack of progress in therm or a range breakout - it is still complex and time consuming correction.

      There is no deffinitve conclusion yet about the further price mnovement due to amount of swingh each wave makes and all of them are corrective swven swing so I have added another wave ((A)) and ((B)) to help to nail the possile top and bottoms of corrections.

      Current levels for possible wave ((C)) top is either the 88.6%Fibo and 100% FiboExpansion of wave a=c OR the old SUPPLY Larea @ 129.71 - 129.90.

      Support/Resistance:

      130.48 - WR1

      129.90 - Swing High

      129.51 - 129.55 - Fibo Price Cluster

      128.07 - Weekly Pivot

      Trading Recommendation:

      Stay away until range will be broken/target hit and clear pattern emerge

      OR

      Intraday: Possible short trade setup at the level of Fibo Price Cluster OR SUPPLY area. SL above WR1.

      Seb

      Thanks  

    4. #4
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      USD/CAD H1 Update on 28 June 2013

      General Overview:

      As indicated yesterday, golden trendline has been broken and the area of a previous wave iv has been hit and rejected (so far). From here the are two possible scenarios:
      SCENARIO 1: Wave X has been finished and now price started another corrective cycle to the downside: wave Y, where wave a his done.
      SCENARIO 2: Wave X has not been done yet and possible higher price are in view. For this to happen, price must break out above @ 1.04931 area with first target @ 1.05258.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.06456- WR1
      1.05536 - Swing High
      1.05413 - 1.05536 - SUPPLY ZONE/KEY ARA
      1.04561 - 23.6%Fibo
      1.03963 - Weekly Pivot
      1.03900 - 1.04204 - BIG DEMAND AREA/KEY LEVEL
      1.04204 - Swing Low

      Trading Recommendation:

      INTRADAY:
      Sell the level of 1.04931 with SL above the 1.05025 and TP @ 1.04204.
      If this sell level is broken try another one @ 1.05258 with SL above the swing high and TP @ 1.04204 again.


      Seb

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    5. #5
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      Default EUR/JPY and USD/CAD Trading Recommendation

      EUR/JPY H1 Analysys Update:

      General Overview:

      Latest leg up might be cleary counted as five wave advance into the grey SUPPLY area @ 129.75 - 129.90. New high is possible even above 130 level but this pair is due to correction and first possible target for correction is Weekly Pivot level @ 128.55. This level is the Key Zone for Bulls - if bears will break out of this level intraday and sustain the breakout, then WS1 @ 127.54 might be tested.

      On the other hand, Key Level for Bulls would be recent swing high and Fibo Expansion area between 129.90 - 130.02. Any break out above this level wold expose further test of WR1 @ 130.61.

      Nevertheless, from Elliott Wave point of view the pair is in complex and time consuming correction and there is one more leg to the downside missing to complete the corrective cycle. Awesome Oscilator indicator Bearish Divergence on H1 time frame starts to support this view.

      Support/Resistance:

      130.61 - WR1

      130.00 - 127% Fibo Expansion/Key Level

      129.90 - Swing High

      128.92 - Previous wave four level

      128.58 - Weekly Pivot/Key Level

      127.54 - WS1

      Trading Recommendation:

      Correction is due in this pair so selling the rallys is preffered as long as pair stays below 130 level with tigh SL and TP1 @ 128.92 and TP2 @ 128.58.

      In case of 130 breakout, next level worth of placing sell limit order is WR1 level @ 130.61 with tight SL and first target on 130.00 level.


      Seb



      USD/CAD H1 Analysys Update

      General Overview:

      Wave X of the corrective cycle has been finished and now price should continue with leg Y of decline into support area of big grey rectangle zone of 1.0392 - 1.04207. The first clue for this move is about to happen is golden trend line breakout to the downside and then WS1 test @ 1.0454.

      There is a possibility of Double Top as well and that makes leevel of 1.0550 Key Level for further upside price movement.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0585 - WR1

      1.0546 - 1.0550 - Swing High/SUPPY area

      1.0526 - Intraday Resistance

      1.0504 - Weekly Pivot

      1.0491 - Intraday Support/Golden TL Support

      1.0454 - WS1

      1.0392 - 1.0426 - DEMAND area/ Wave Y target zone.

      Trading Recommendation:

      Correction is still in progress so as long as Key Level will hold shorts are preffered below 1.0526 with SL above the Double Top high and first Tp level is @ 1.0454 and next @ 1.0426

      Thanks  

    6. #6
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      Default EUR/JPY H1 & USDCAD H1 Analysys Update on 02/07/2013

      EUR/JPY H1 Update

      General Overview:

      Weekly Resistance Level 1 @ 130.61 has been hit as indicated in previous update and thus this point might be a temporary top for this pair as the five wave advance has been finished now - correction is due.

      First obstacle for corrective movement to continue down is Key LEvel support zone @ 130.23 and then ascending golden trend line level/round number support @ 130.00 area. If those levels will be broken, the next obstacle is DEMAND area @ 129.75 - 129.90. If this one is broken, the price might test even the Weekly Pivot area @ 128.58.

      Please notice that larger cycle time frames indicates more bearish progression should develop because there is one more wave to the downside missing to complete the whole corrective cycle.

      Support/Resistance:

      130.79 - 130-83 - Fibo Price Cluster
      130.61 - WR1
      130.23 - Key Level/Support
      130.00 - Round Number Support
      129.75 - 129.90 - DEMAND area
      128.83 - 129.04 - Previous Wave Four Area
      128.58 - Weekly Pivot

      Trading Recommendations:
      Sell anyprice above 130.20 with SL above 130.61 and TP level 129.75 and TP2 129.05.

      Seb
      RIGHT CLICK TO ENLARGE



      USD/CAD H1 Update
      General Overview:

      I have re-labeled the count one degree higher due to a lack of impulsive development, including waves (i) and (ii).
      Currently price is range bounded and recent golden trend line break to the downside has be stoped on support @ 1.0491 and price had tested the trend line from the other side inot the resistance area @ 1.0526 and so far got rejected, so this is first clue of a possible lower prices to come.
      Now traders need to wait for a break out of the support @ 1.0491 to confirm further downside wave progression.
      Bias is to the downside as long as high holds.

      Support/Resistance:
      1.0585 - WR1

      1.0546 - 1.0550 - Swing High/SUPPY area

      1.0526 - Intraday Resistance

      1.0504 - Weekly Pivot

      1.0491 - Intraday Support/Golden TL Support

      1.0454 - WS1

      1.0392 - 1.0426 - DEMAND area/ Wave Y target zone.

      Trading Recommendation:

      Intraday shorting the area of Weekly Pivot (1.0504) and Technical Resistance (1.0526) with SL above and TP1 @ 1.0491 and TP2 1.0454 seems like way to go.

      Seb

      RIGH CLIK TO ENLARGE


      ---------- Post added 07-03-2013 at 10:07 AM ---------- Previous post was 07-02-2013 at 10:28 AM ----------

      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 03/07/2013

      General Overview:

      The count has been slighty relabeled making wave iii little bit more extended but it does not change the general outlook for this pair: larger cycle time frames indicates more bearish progression should develop because there is one more wave to the downside missing to complete the whole corrective cycle.

      The golden trend line has been broken in possible wave 1 and tested in wave 2 and now price is developing wave 3, of which two waves looks to be done.

      This scebnario will be confirmed if the major DEMAND area will @ 129.90 - 129.75 be broken, so price could continue lower into Weekly Pivot area.

      Support/Resistance:

      130.79 - 130-83 - Fibo Price Cluster
      130.61 - WR1
      130.23 - Key Level/Support
      130.00 - Round Number Support
      129.75 - 129.90 - DEMAND area
      128.83 - 129.04 - Previous Wave Four Area
      128.58 - Weekly Pivot

      Trading Recommendations:
      Sell anyprice above 130.20 with SL above 131 and TP level 129.75 and TP2 129.05.


      RIGHT CLIK TO ENLARGE



      USD/CAD H1 Update on 03/07/2013

      General Overview:


      Count has been re labeled and possibility of a very short wave alt: X has been added.

      Currently the price is moving up in brown channel and there is no possibility of selling as long as lower channel line holds.

      The Key Level to the downside is 1.0525.
      The Key Level to the upside is WR1 @ 1.0585.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0635 - WR2

      1.0585 - WR1

      1.0546 - 1.0550 - Swing High/SUPPY area

      1.0526 - Intraday Resistance

      1.0504 - Weekly Pivot

      1.0491 - Intraday Support/Golden TL Support

      1.0454 - WS1

      1.0392 - 1.0426 - DEMAND area/ Wave Y target zone.

      Trading Recommendation:

      As long as channel holds intraday longs are preffered with SL below 1.0525 and TP1 @ 1.0585 and TP2 @ 1.0635

      Seb

      RIGH CLIK TO ENLARGE

      Last edited by Sebastian Seliga; 07-02-2013 at 10:57 AM.

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    7. #7
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      Default EUR/JPY & USD/CAD Trading Recommendation

      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 04/07/2013

      General Overview:

      As indicated yesterday impulsive decline happened
      Now, there are two possible scenarios here, that depend on wether wave 1 has been finished or not:
      SCENARIO 1: Main Count - There is one more wave to the downside missing (wave 5 purple) to finish the impulsive decline. Targets are 61%Fibo @ 128.29.
      SCENARIO 2: Alternate Count - Wave 1 has been done in five waves and now correction is due in shape of a ZigZag. Typical price projection has been done for this type for correction based on One2One harmonic relationships and IDEAL target is 130.00. Any price above this level invalidates the count.

      Support/Resistance:

      130.79 - 130-83 - Fibo Price Cluster
      130.61 - WR1
      130.23 - Key Level/Support
      130.00 - Round Number Support
      129.75 - 129.90 - DEMAND area
      128.83 - 129.04 - Previous Wave Four Area
      128.58 - Weekly Pivot
      128.29 - 61% Fibo
      127.54 - 78%Fibo/WR1/Red Trend Line Support

      Trading Recommendations:

      Selling is preffered as long as golden trend line is not broken with targets below Weekly Pivot level first and 78%Fibo eventually.


      RIGHT CLIK TO ENLARGE




      USD/CAD H1 Update on 04/07/2013
      General Overview:

      Wave b of overall corrective cycle was a little more complex and time consumig but the crucial support of 1.0492 did hold and now price shoul continue higher into the area of WR1(1.0585) or even higher is one of the impulsive waves get extended ( WR2 or 161%Fibo Extension).
      First obstacle is golden trend line area somewhere @ 1.0550.
      If broken, price should contuinue upside move into recent highs area.
      If rejected, then the immediate test of support @ 1.0492 comes to view and if this one is broken then WS1 area or even DEMAND zone might be tested.
      Count has been re labeled and possibility of a very short wave alt: X has been added.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0635 - WR2
      1.0585 - WR1
      1.0546 - 1.0550 - Swing High/SUPPY area/Trend Line Resistance
      1.0504 - Weekly Pivot
      1.0492 - Intradey Support
      1.0392 - 1.0426 - DEMAND area/ Wave Y target zone.

      Trading Recommendation:

      As long as support level @ 1.0492 holds, bullish scenario is preffered so go long @ 1.0520 level with SL below 1.0492 with teargets of recent high and beyond that into WR1 level of even WR2/161%Fibo level as well.

      Seb

      RIGH CLIK TO ENLARGE



      ---------- Post added 07-05-2013 at 12:00 PM ---------- Previous post was 07-04-2013 at 12:58 PM ----------

      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 05/07/2013

      General Overview:

      As indicated yesterday impulsive decline is happening now and scenario 1 is in play.
      Current wave progression looks impulsive, ane the sequence of (i)-(ii);i-ii; wave progression suggest more sudden & severe price movement to the downside.
      Previous wave four area on grey rectangle @ 129.03 - 128.83 provides good resistance now.
      Targets for wave 1 bottom has been updated.

      Support/Resistance:

      130.79 - 130-83 - Fibo Price Cluster
      130.61 - WR1
      130.23 - Key Level/Support
      130.00 - Round Number Support
      129.75 - 129.90 - DEMAND area
      128.83 - 129.04 - Previous Wave Four Area
      128.58 - Weekly Pivot
      128.29 - 61% Fibo
      127.54 - 78%Fibo/WR1/Red Trend Line Support


      Trading Recommendations:
      Not much changed since yesterday, bias is still to the downside, so untill wave 5 is not finished selling is preffered and as long as golden trend line is not broken the targets are below Weekly Pivot level first and 78%Fibo eventually.


      RIGHT CLIK TO ENLARGE



      USD/CAD H1 Update on 05/07/2013
      General Overview:

      Wave b is getting more complex and time consuming, so it is making this pair very hard to trade accordingly.
      Currently there is still wave c to the downside missing, before the uptrend resumes a little, to finish wave X.
      Golden trand line acts very good as a resistance provider so a break out and close above this line is needed to confirm further upward movement.
      Blue channel has been added: it might act as a supply/resistance area.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0635 - WR2
      1.0585 - WR1
      1.0546 - 1.0550 - Swing High/SUPPY area/Trend Line Resistance
      1.0504 - Weekly Pivot
      1.0492 - Intraday Support
      1.0454 - WS1
      1.0392 - 1.0426 - DEMAND area/ Wave Y target zone.

      Trading Recommendation:

      There are only two levels for buy side bias that can provide an attractive R/R ratio: it is either 1.0493 -1.0480 Support Level/Blue Channel Support line OR WS1 level @ 1.0454. Try to trade this levels with tigh SL in anticipation of impulsive wave c to hit one of the target levels.

      Seb

      RIGH CLIK TO ENLARGE

      Last edited by Sebastian Seliga; 07-04-2013 at 01:51 PM.

      Thanks  

    8. #8
      Forex in the blood
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      Default EUR/JPY & USD/CAD Analysys Update on 08/07/2013

      USD/CAD H1 Update on 08/07/2013
      General Overview:

      The count has been slightly adjusted to the possibility of an alternate count, that might be in play. In this count, the recent high is the top of wave 3 (alt:3) of higher degree and recent low is the bottom of wave 4 (alt:4). Taking this possibility into account, this labeling include two scenarios:
      SCENARIO 1: MAIN COUNT - Impulsive wave development has been finished and now market is in corrective WXY cycle of wave X. Break below Key Area is first clue that this scenario is in play.
      SCENARIO 2: ALTERNATE COUNT: Impulsive wave development has not been finished yet and market is in last stage of Ending Diagonal Wave 5 cycle, of which waves i,ii and iii looks to be done and there is wave iv and wave v missing to complete the cycle. This scenario is in play as long as Key Area holds the line.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0789 - WR3
      1.0697 - WR2
      1.0649 - WR1
      1.0607 - Swing High
      1.0559 - Weekly Pivot/Intraday Support
      1.0512 - WS1
      1.0490- 1.0470 - Key Zone
      1.0426 - WS2
      1.0374 - WS3

      Trading Recommendation:

      As long as golden trend line holds shorts are in play with SL above 1.0610 and if the Weekly Pivot level is broken, then next is WS1 level @ 1.0512 and just below the Key Area.
      If golden trend line is broken and new high is meade look for WR1 level as TP @ 1.0649.
      Seb

      RIGH CLIK TO ENLARGE


      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 08/07/2013

      General Overview:
      It looks like wave 1 has ended with Ending Diagonal wave 5 and now market is in corrective cycle.
      Golden trend line area and 38%Fibo level @ 129.37 was a strong support level this morning and so far price is trying to get higher but there is another strong level that acts as a resistance @ 130.24. Only this level break out would expose the test of a recent high @ 131.10. Otherwise more downside is expected and if strong support #1 level would be broken, then DEMAND area and strong support #2 level @ 128.30 would be tested.

      Support/Resistance:

      131.10 - Swing High
      131.02 - WR1
      130.24 - Strong Resistance
      129.80 - Weekly Pivot
      129.37 - 38%Fibo/Golden TL Support
      128.48 - 128.71 - DEMAND area/WS1
      128.30 - 61%Fibo/Red Channel Line Support
      127.53 - 76%Fibo
      127.29 - WS2

      Trading Recommendations:
      Bias is to the downside, so as long as 130.24 resistance is not broken, short side of the market is preffered, with SL above mentioned level and TP1 on Weekly Pivot, then TP2 at 38%Fibo Support and then DEMAND area.
      However, if 130.24 is broken, then intraday buy trades can be initiated with SL below 130 and TP in recent high # 131.10

      RIGHT CLIK TO ENLARGE

      Thanks  

    9. #9
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      Default EUR/JPY & USD/CAD Analysys Update

      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 09/07/2013

      General Overview:
      Strong Resistance on 130.24 has been broken nad 78%Fibo has been hit. Market is now testing this level.
      Wave 2 corrective cycle look like more complex now and price has made wave A and wave B triangle of this cycle so there is wave C missing. It should end on any of the levels in orange rectangle and then impulsive drop shoul happen. Otherwise a test of the recent high is very probable.

      Support/Resistance:

      131.10 - Swing High
      131.02 - WR1
      130.80 - 88%Fibo
      130.65 - 61%Fibo Expansion
      130.54 - 78%Fibo
      130.24 - Strong Resistance
      129.80 - Weekly Pivot
      129.37 - 38%Fibo/Golden TL Support
      128.48 - 128.71 - DEMAND area/WS1
      128.30 - 61%Fibo/Red Channel Line Support
      127.53 - 76%Fibo
      127.29 - WS2

      Trading Recommendations:
      Last chance for bears is to no let the Key Area be broken so shorts from this area are preffered with SL just above the high and TP on 130.24 and then on Weekly Pivot.

      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE:


      USD/CAD H1 Update on 08/07/2013
      General Overview:

      Short reminder of two possible scenarios here:
      SCENARIO 1: MAIN COUNT - Impulsive wave development has been finished and now market is in corrective WXY cycle of wave X. Break below Key Area is first clue that this scenario is in play.
      SCENARIO 2: ALTERNATE COUNT: Impulsive wave development has not been finished yet and market is in last stage of Ending Diagonal Wave 5 cycle, of which waves i,ii and iii looks to be done and there is wave iv and wave v missing to complete the cycle. This scenario is in play as long as Key Area holds the line.

      It looks like price has choosent to follow alternate scenario with wave 5 Ending Diagonal cycle. So far golden trend line holds like a charm.
      Key Level for further Upside are on chart. If Key Level # 2 will not hold, it is very probable that top is in place.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0789 - WR3
      1.0697 - WR2
      1.0649 - WR1
      1.0607 - Swing High
      1.0559 - Weekly Pivot/Intraday Support
      1.0512 - WS1
      1.0490- 1.0470 - Key Zone
      1.0426 - WS2
      1.0374 - WS3

      Trading Recommendation:

      As long as golden trend line holds shorts are in play with SL above 1.0610. Now price is testing the Weekly Pivot so if rejected this is good level to go short again. If golden trend line and Weekly Pivot is broken and new high is made look for WR1 level as TP @ 1.0649.

      Seb



      RIGH CLIK TO ENLARGE

      ---------- Post added 07-10-2013 at 08:34 AM ---------- Previous post was 07-09-2013 at 12:14 PM ----------

      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 10/07/2013

      General Overview:
      Five impulsive waves to the downside has been done as indicated yesteday and now it looks like first wave (i) is done and corrective cycle is due.
      The Key Level od 129.39 provideas the resistance and only a sustained break out ( H1 Close above the level) would expose more upside levels like Weekly Pivot test or 130.25 level.
      On the other hande red trend line is providing a support but break out of this level would put WS2 into the view or even 126.57 level.

      Support/Resistance:

      131.10 - Swing High
      131.02 - WR1
      130.24 - Strong Resistance
      129.80 - Weekly Pivot
      129.39 - Intraday Resistance/Key Level
      128.48 - 128.71 - DEMAND area/WS1
      128.30 - 61%Fibo/Red Channel Line Support
      127.29 - WS2

      Trading Recommendations:

      Wait to the end of the wave (ii) correction and short level of 129.39 with SL just above ant TP1 @ 128.50 and TP2 @ 127.30

      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE:



      USD/CAD H1 Update on 10/07/2013
      General Overview:

      The blue channel line has been hit and this one might be labeled as wave (a) of more complex corrective structure to the downside or wave alt:iv of an Ending Diagonal wave 5 to the upside
      Now, the most important intraday resistance is golden trend line channel lines:
      - if the price will break out to the upside then highs of wave (b) or beond might be tested
      - if price will break out to the downside, through the blue channel resistance, then immediate support is @ 1.0471 level and if this one is broken then WS1 @ 1.0426 might be seen.


      Support/Resistance:

      1.0789 - WR3
      1.0697 - WR2
      1.0649 - WR1
      1.0607 - Swing High
      1.0559 - Weekly Pivot/Key Level
      1.0512 - WS1
      1.0470 - Intraday Support
      1.0426 - WS2
      1.0374 - WS3

      Trading Recommendation:

      As long as golden trend line holds, shorts are in play with SL above 1.0610. If golden trend line and Weekly Pivot is broken and new high is made look for WR1 level as TP @ 1.0649.

      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE

      Thanks  

    10. #10
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      Default EUR/JPY & USD/CAD Analysys Update

      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 11/07/2013

      General Overview on 11/07/2013 10:00 CET:
      The sharp correction in wave (ii) has been done in ZigZag shape and it did not took out the previous wave 2 high, so as long as this level holds the bias is still to the downside. The bulls must break out of the Demand Breakout Zone @ 130.29 - 130.42 to expose any new test of the recent high.
      So far golden trend line works quite well and any breakout and close above is bullish. If You take a look, You will notice a possible Bull Flag technical pattern in progress, so this is an alternate point of view on the recent price development.
      This impulsive green labeling is invalidated if price would break 130.55 level.

      Support/Resistance:

      131.10 - Swing High
      131.02 - WR1
      130.55 - Green Count Invalidation Level
      130.29 -130.42 - Demand Breakout Zone
      129.80 - Weekly Pivot
      129.29 - Intraday Resistance
      128.48 - WS1
      128.29 - 61%Fibo
      128.00 - 128.20 - Demand Area/Lower Bull Flag Trend Line Level/

      Trading Recommendations:

      As long as 130.29 - 130.42 area holds bias is to the downside and shorts should be played. Weekly Pivot level is a good level to enter a short position with SL above 130.42 and TP @ 128.10-128.40. Only if 130.55 is broken, then Bull Flag pattern should be played.

      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE:


      USD/CAD H1 Update on 11/07/2013
      General Overview on 11/07/2013 10:00 CET:

      The longly awaited and highly anticipated wave Y to the downside has been finaly materialised and it has hit previous wave four area of a higher degree almost to the pip as You can see on H4 chart.
      Currently, the most importent level is the Key Area of a previous DEMAND zone, that has been broken and now it will act as a SUPPLY zone. Only a sustained break out of 1.0390 - 1.0419 zone will expose further upside levels.
      Please notice that price is belowe Weekly Pivot Support Level 3 and it means it is very oversold.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0789 - WR3
      1.0697 - WR2
      1.0649 - WR1
      1.0607 - Swing High
      1.0559 - Weekly Pivot
      1.0512 - WS1
      1.0426 - WS2
      1.0390 - 1.0419 - SUPPLY Zone/Key Area
      1.0374 - WS3
      1.0331 - Previous Wave Four Level/Golden Trend Line Support

      Trading Recommendation:

      As long as SUPPLY area will hold, traders should sell this 1.0390 - 1.0419 zone with SL just above that and TP on golden trend line support area somewhere between 1.0355- 1.0375.


      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE



      ---------- Post added 07-12-2013 at 07:46 AM ---------- Previous post was 07-11-2013 at 10:34 AM ----------

      USD/CAD H1 Update on 12/07/2013
      General Overview on 12/07/2013 08:00 CET:

      The main question regarding the Elliott Wave count is the currnet degree of the cycle. The latest WXY leg down looks like a part of a complex price correction in shape of another WXY pattern of a larger degree.
      From a technical point of view, previous support is resistance now at the level of 1.0426 and so far it holds. As long as it holds no bullish price action is expected, however please consider that price has retraced 70.7%Fibo of last wave (a) and Bullish Wedge pattern is forming on M30 time frame.

      Support/Resistance:

      1.0559 - Weekly Pivot
      1.0512 - WS1
      1.0471 - Triangle Low Level
      1.0445 - Technical Intraday Resistance
      1.0426 - WS2
      1.0390 - 1.0426 - SUPPLY Zone/Key Area
      1.0374 - WS3
      1.0331 - Previous Wave Four Level/Golden Trend Line Support

      Trading Recommendation:

      For a nice 50pips intraday setup trades could consider thes Bullish Wedge pattern and go long from currecnt levels with SL below the swing low and TP into WS2 level @ 1.0426.


      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE



      EUR/JPY H1 Update on 12/07/2013
      General Overview on 12/07/2013 10:00 CET:

      Yesterday's idea of shorting the Weekly Pivot level was quite good for intraday scalp. Currently price is below this level and in the middle of the range.
      The count has been updated for another i-ii wave progression and this is rather very bearish count. Only a break out of golder trend line first and then Demand Breakout Zone and finally invalidation line would expose the recent highs.
      Otherwise bias is bearish and lower levels should be hit sooner or later.

      Support/Resistance:

      131.10 - Swing High
      131.02 - WR1
      130.55 - Green Count Invalidation Level
      130.29 -130.42 - Demand Breakout Zone
      129.80 - Weekly Pivot
      129.29 - Intraday Resistance
      128.48 - WS1
      128.29 - 61%Fibo
      128.00 - 128.20 - Demand Area/Lower Bull Flag Trend Line Level/

      Trading Recommendations:

      Shorting the Weekly Pivot level shounds lika a good idea again but please notice that golden trend line might be tested later on as well and this would be next good entry point for short position too. SL would be above 130.45 level and Weekly Pivot first TP level and red trend line second TP level.

      RIGHT MOUSE CLICK TO ENLARGE PLEASE:

      Thanks  

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