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    Thread: Forex Analysis from Mourad - Discussion

    1. #1
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      Default Forex Analysis from Mourad - Discussion

      Dear Brothers / Sisters;

      How are you today? Hoping you're in good health and fine.



      Will see in this post several of subjects on Forex, that lies in :
      • Currency Forecast, Recommendations and Analysis.
      • Trading Strategist & Research Analysis.
      • Money Managment.
      • Financial Market.


    2. Dragon
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      wow good topic you have here.......i hope it can help us to do the trade with the infomation you will provide us later on..........many thanks to you...


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      Pivot Point: 1.3630



      Overview:

      The EURUSD's support has broken and it was turned to resistance since sixteen days (21st of September 2011), therefor the pair has already formed a strong resistance at 1.3690. Moreover, after it couldn't close above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels and start signing for Bearish market, and the price has placed below 50% Fibonacci since a month. It should also be note that the price has still been trapped between 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels and 23.6%. Aswell the RSI and the Moving Average (200) are still calling for downtrend. Thus the market indicates a Bearish opportunity on level of 1.3690 on daily chart with a first target of 1.3545, and continue towards 1.3480. However, if the price close above the resistance then the best location for placing a stop loss should be above 1.3800.


      Recommendations:


      According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.3700 and 1.3450.

      Below 1.3700 look for further downside with 1.3565 and 1.3463 targets.
      Stop loss should be placed at 1.3820.


      Technical Levels:

      R3: 1.3814
      R2: 1.3748
      R1: 1.3696
      PP: 1.3630
      S1: 1.3578
      S2: 1.3512
      S3: 1.3460


      Observation (s):

      Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.


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    6. #4
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      USD/CHF Numerical Analysis for October 12, 2011.


      Observation (s):

      Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
      Use historic prices to determine future prices.

      Calculations:

      Monday's historic (10th of September 2011)

      Open: 0.9273
      High: 0.9274
      Low : 0.9002
      Close: 0.9079

      Take the last three strong levels (Red lines at the chart):
      (0.8920 + 0.9030 + 0.9115) / 3 = 0.9022
      The market will indicates a Bullish opportunity on level of 0.9122

      Pivot Point = 0.9118
      With a first target at Pivot Point.

      Range was: 272pips (Down)
      The value of 50% Fibonacci Retracement is: (High + Low) / 2 = 0.9138
      If the price hits 0.9133, it will continue towards 0.9230.

      Meanwhile, the last strong swing is at 0.8920, aswell it's a major support when buyers should to bid again. If bulls cannot bid at this price, therefore the best location for placing a stop loss should be below 0.8920.



      Short Overview:


      The USD/CHF has rebounded from a minor Support at 0.9030, and it is now approaching its Support, it will probably start upside movement at this area and recovery again. Therefore it will a good sign to buy at this spot with a first target of 0.9122, and continue towards 0.9230. On other hand if a break in 0.8920 will be a good location for placing stop loss below 0.8920 (Strong level).


    7. #5
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      USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 13-14, 2011.

      Psychological Level at 0.8920.




      Trading Recommendations:

      According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 0.9310 and 0.8920.

      Buy above 0.8920 with a first target of 0.8993, it might resume to 0.9070.
      Below 0.8900 look for further downside with a target at 0.8800.


      Pivot Point: 0.8993.





      Overview:

      USD/CHF's subsequent sharp fall suggests that decline from 0.9274 and had resumed to test 0.8920 yesterday. Therefore the pair has already formed a strong support at this psychological level of 0.8920 and it is now approaching from it. It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 0.9310 and 0.8920. Moreover, after it couldn't close below this psychological level aswell the price has been set above it fifteen days ago, hence the market started showing the signs of Bullish market, so it is a good sign to buy above 0.8920 with a first target of 0.8993 (Pivot point), and continue towards 0.9112. However, If the trend breaks this level and closure below it (0.8920), it will be a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, hence the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.8920 then the support will be become a resistance, for that it will a good sign to sell below 0.8920 with a target at 0.88 (Support 2).

      Technical levels:

      R3: 0.9263
      R2: 0.9186
      R1: 0.9070
      PP: 0.8993
      S1: 0.8877
      S2: 0.8800
      S3: 0.8684

      Observation (s):

      Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

      Key level at 0.8920.


    8. #6
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      AUD/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 14, 2011.

      Pivot Point: 1.0173




      Overview:

      AUD/USD's turbulent rise from 0.9387 has extended further to as high as 1.0231 a day ago. It should be noted that the price is now approaching from a strong resistance at 1.0240, because the bears had already broken this level therefore the bulls were forced to pullback below of this level (21st of September 2011), aswell this strong level is coincided with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart. If history repeats itself, the market will start showing the signs of bearish market again, and the price will set below 1.0240 for that the market indicates a bearish opportunity on level of 1.0231 with a first target of 1.0120, and continues towards 1.0045 (Support 2). However, If the trend breaks this level and closure above it on H4, it will be a upside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the rise looks is not corrective, hence the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.0240 then the resistance will be become a support, so it will a good sign to buy above 1.0240 with a target at 1.0380 and it might resume to 1.0464 (78% Fibonacci retracement levels).


      Trading Recommendations:

      According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.0077 and 1.0231 and it sets around the area of 1.0240.

      Sell below 1.0231 with a first target of 1.0120, and continues towards 1.0045.
      Closure above 1.0240 (H4 chart) would go up with a target at the resistance three (1.0376).

      Technical levels:

      R3: 1.0376
      R2: 1.0304
      R1: 1.0245
      PP: 1.0173
      S1: 1.0114
      S2: 1.0042
      S3: 0.9983


      Observation (s):

      Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

      Key level at 1.0240.

      Breakout1 Waits for a slowdown in volatility and then trades in the direction of the subsequent breakout. It is very short-term in nature, uses fixed stop losses and profittargets, and works best in fast-moving markets.


    9. #7
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      USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 14, 2011.

      USD/CHF: History will probably repeat itself again.









      Pivot Point: 0.8982.


      Overview:

      USD/CHF's subsequent sharp fall suggests that decline from 0.9274 and had resumed to test 0.8920 yesterday. Therefore the pair has already formed a strong support at this psychological level of 0.8920 and it is now approaching from it. It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 0.9310 and 0.8920. Moreover, after it couldn't close below this psychological level aswell the price has been set above it fifteen days ago, hence the market started showing the signs of Bullish market, so it is a good sign to buy above 0.8920 with a first target of 0.8982 (Pivot point), and continue towards 0.9112. However, If the trend breaks this level and closure below it (0.8920), it will be a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, hence the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.8920 then the support will be become a resistance, for that it will a good sign to sell below 0.8920 with a target at 0.8810 (Support 2).

      Trading Recommendations:

      According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 0.9310 and 0.8920.

      Buy above 0.8920 with a first target of 0.8993, it might resume to 0.9070.
      Below 0.8920 look for further downside with a target at 0.8800.

      Technical levels:

      R3: 0.9149
      R2: 0.9095
      R1: 0.9036
      PP: 0.8982
      S1: 0.8923
      S2: 0.8869
      S3: 0.8810


      Observation (s):

      Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

      Key level at 0.8920.


    10. #8
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      EUR/USD: Weekly Tips and Tools/Chart for 17-21 of October, 2011
      2011-10-17


      Technical levels:






      Tip (s):

      R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can exceeded occasionally.

      Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.

      In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.

      If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.


      Time Frame: H1





      Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week (10 - 14 of October, 2011) in order to determine low and high price.

      Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
      Average = 1.3635

      50% Fibonacci retracement levels has already formed a strong level at 1.3635.


      Volatility:

      Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower)

      703.56


      Observation (s):

      If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.

      Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.

      Legend:

      R: Resistance.
      PP: Pivot Point.
      S: Support.


    11. #9
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      GBP/USD: Weekly Tips and Tools/Chart for 17-21 of October, 2011
      2011-10-17



      Technical levels:




      Tip (s):

      R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can exceeded occasionally.

      Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.

      In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.

      If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.


      Time Frame: H1





      Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week (10 - 14 of October, 2011) in order to determine low and high price.

      Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
      Average = 1.5689

      50% Fibonacci retracement levels has already formed a strong level at 1.5689.


      Volatility:

      Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower)
      508.32


      Observation (s):

      If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: GBP is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.

      Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.

      Legend:

      R: Resistance.
      PP: Pivot Point.
      S: Support.


    12. #10
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      NZD/USD Technical Analysis for October 18-21, 2011.


      Pivot Point: 0.7962.
      Average Time Frame of Trades: 2 days to 4 days.




      Overview:

      The NZD/USD has not shown signs of following the break of the highest level of 0.807 but it has opened today below the pivot point (0.7962), therefore it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.7962 with a first target of 0.81 and resume to 0.82. However, in case of reversal takes place and the NZD/USD breaks through the Support level of 0.7856 then the market will lead to futher decline to 0.7780 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels), in order to indicate the correction movement at this level. Meanwhile; the daily chart represents a strong support at 38.2% (0.7780) Fibonacci retracement levels, as well the channel emerging of RSI has still positive on the weekly frame, for that the RSI calls for a new upleg at this level. Moreover should note a point of view that the EMA25 (Red color) have to cross over the EAM50 (Green color), it would be more of a confirmation for uptrend in a long term period.




      Technical Levels:

      R3: 0.8178
      R2: 0.8123
      R1: 0.8017
      PP: 0.7962
      S1: 0.7856
      S2: 0.7801
      S3: 0.7695

      Trading Recommendations:


      According to previous events the price still trapped between 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 38.2%.

      Buy positions above 1.78 with a target of 1.8123
      Below 1.778 look for further downside again with a target of 1.755.

      Observation (s):

      Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
      Buyers are BIDding at a lower price.
      Sellers are ASking for a high price.


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