Of the expectations of global oil markets, the future of crude oil rose on Friday. Weak natural gas and coal prices are limiting the pace of oil. West Texas crude futures for December ended at 82 826.76 a barrel, down 1. 1.26, or about 1.5 percent. Brent crude futures closed up 0. 0.97, or 1.5 percent, at .5 85.58 a barrel. A report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that crude inventory at the Kuching Storage Hub fell 31.2 million barrels from October 2018. Saturday, October 15. That could push crude oil prices above current multi-year highs. The number of oil and gas ships in the United States fell from 1 to 542 this week, according to a Baker Hughes report. Despite the decline this week, the total number of veins increased by 255 veins at this time last year, or 89 percent. US oil caps fell 2 to 443 this week, while gas caps rose 1 to 99.
The US dollar weakened against most of its peers on Friday, with traders reacting to Fed chairman Jerome Powell's comments on strong economic data and cuts to the central bank's bond-buying program. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was particularly concerned about high inflation and said the central bank would take a closer look at the signs that homes and businesses are expecting continued price pressures. "Supply disruptions are mounting," Mr Powell told a virtual conference on Friday. "The risks are now clear for longer and longer barriers, and thus for inflation." He said the central bank should "make sure that our policy is in place for various possible outcomes". "I think it's time to reduce it. I don't think it's time to raise rates," he added. Elsewhere, US Federal Reserve President Raphael Botak said in Atlanta that he expects inflation to continue until 2022 and that the central bank should raise interest rates by the end of next year. The dollar index fell to 93.54 just before noon, recovering from a long line about an hour ago and recovering briefly. This is 93.60 which is about 0. 0.2% less than the previous close. Against the euro, the dollar fell from 1.1627 to 1.1642. The Flash Eurozone Composite Output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is at a six-month low of 56.2, up from 54.3 in October, according to IHS Markets. Flash Services PMI fell to 56.7 from 56.4, the lowest level in six months. The dollar strengthened against the pound sterling, reaching 1.3758, up 0.25% from Thursday's close of 1.3794. The revised adjusted IHS Market / Sepsic Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 57.7 from 55.7 in October, while the Services PMI rose to 58.5 from 58.5. 58.0. The yen rose from 11 114.00 to 3 113.48. Japan's manufacturing sector continued to expand in October, and most recently, Jane Bank's latest survey showed a manufacturing PMI of 53.0 on Friday. It climbed to 51.5 in September, and will cross the long line of 50 or bust that separates the expansion from the boom. Against Australia, the dollar traded at 0.7466, a slight change from the previous close of 0.7468. Australia's manufacturing sector continued to grow in October, and at its fastest pace, a recent survey of the market economy showed the manufacturing PMI mark at 57.3 on Friday. This is up from 56.8 in September. The Swiss franc rose to 9 0.9163 from 9 0.9184, while the loonie was slightly higher at .2 23.2367 against the dollar.
Bitcoin failed to hold above $67,000; BTCUSD risks falling to $52,000
After updating its all-time high, Bitcoin failed to hold above $67,000 per coin. The approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the flight of investors from inflation, and the outflow of funds from gold funds were strong drivers for growth. However, a very alarming picture is emerging on the daily chart.
Bearish Engulfing and Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern
The most alarming moment was Thursday's daily candle. It not only closed bearish but a buyback also took place - a bearish engulfing pattern formed on the chart. And this is a signal for a reversal. Although sometimes it shows only a local change in direction.
The breakdown of the level of 62,637.96. Yes, the daily candle is not closed yet, although it changes its direction from timid bullish to bearish before our eyes. If BTCUSD closes below this level, it could fall to the $60,000 per coin area; and
A potential rebound from $60,000. If this happens, it is possible that a second shoulder of the head and shoulders reversal pattern may form. So far, it is only being outlined and it cannot be argued that it will form and work itself out. But if this happens, then the neckline near $60,000 for one bitcoin may be broken.
These are only assumptions so far, but if events develop according to this scenario, the main cryptocurrency may fall to $55,000 (the potential for working out the head and shoulders pattern) or even to the $52,000 area.
Locally, you need to monitor the behavior of BTCUSD around the level of 62,637.96, and in case of its breakdown - the mark of $60,000 per coin. I will not push ahead of time, maybe these supports will also keep the price down. But the scenario described above is worth keeping in mind just in case.
There are most likely two reasons here, which, if you think about it, are related.
The first is selling on facts. It has been discussed more than once and it is possible that it may now take place. After all, Bitcoin grew on expectations of ETF approval. And now, when the first one is launched, the second one started trading Friday, and the third one is expected next week, there could have been regular sales.
The second is profit taking on purchases among speculators. The consequence of the sale on the facts. The only question now is how long this profit will be fixed. However, the targets were described above.
Valkyrie: the second to launch Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin and crypto financial services firm Valkyrie Funds is the second firm to launch a major cryptocurrency futures ETF in the United States.
Valkyrie's Bitcoin ETF started trading on the Nasdaq fund Friday with the ticker BTF. The ETF will track the value of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures.
During a Friday morning interview with CoinDesk, Leah Wald, CEO of Valkyrie Investments commented on what sets their foundation apart from ProShares, which launched on October 9th. She equated her bitcoin and crypto fund with "subject matter expertise" and ProShares with "a monolith that cares more about launching their next fund."
Well, another ETF from VanEck is next in line, which is likely to start trading in the US on Monday. By this time, we will probably get more clarity about whether Bitcoin will go for a deeper correction.
EUR USD CURRENCY FORECAST....
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to adjust against the short-term downward trend during the current week as a whole. However, we remind you that the movement seen in the illustration above is only a correction against a much more powerful upward trend that has been forming in the last year and a half. The illustration above also clearly shows that the quotes could not reach the Fibonacci level of 50.0% and slightly adjusted upwards, having worked out the critical line. Thus, at this time, the downward trend is completely preserved. We would also like to note that the downward movement may well continue. Recall that the exchange rate of any currency depends not on the "foundation," "macroeconomics," or "technology," but on the actions of market participants.
Moreover, they also include central banks, which are the largest participants and can directly influence monetary policy and the volume of the money supply. And the volume of money supply cannot but be reflected in the exchange rate of a particular currency. Therefore, we still believe that the fall of the US currency would be more logical at this time. However, major market participants do not report on their actions and may have their strategy for operations in the foreign exchange market. For example, non-commercial. Therefore, at the moment, there are no signals to buy. Moreover, a rebound from the critical Kijun-sen line will already be a sell signal and a signal to continue moving south.
Consequently, at this time, the major players do not understand what they should do next with the euro. Also, the illustration above shows that the pair's rate has gone only 100 points below the previous local minimum. Therefore, at this time, the whole technical picture of the long-term plan still looks like a standard three-wave correction. Thus, from our point of view, the formation of a new upward trend in the near future is still very likely, given the attempts with which the European currency has been falling in the last 8-9 months. But at the same time, we remind you that while there are no buy signals, you should not rush into the market with purchases. Any fundamental hypothesis requires specific technical confirmations. If there are none, then you should not make appropriate trading decisions.
Trading plan for the week of October 25 - 29:
1) On the 24-hour timeframe, the upward trend has not changed since bulls can still overcome the important lines of the Ichimoku indicator. The pair is being adjusted, and its further movement will depend on overcoming or overcoming the Kijun-sen line. Thus, new sales of the European currency will be possible if the price bounces off the critical line. The nearest target is a strong and important 50.0% Fibonacci level of 1.1490.
2) As for purchases of the euro/dollar pair, they should be considered no earlier than fixing the price above the critical line in the current conditions. And ideally, above the Ichimoku cloud, because the price has already overcome Kijun-sen several times, but then "stumbled" about Senkou Span B. There are few prerequisites for a new upward trend to begin in the near future, although the general fundamental background still indicates a very likely fall in the dollar.
Explanations to the illustrations:
Price levels of support and resistance (resistance /support), Fibonacci levels - target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Ichimoku indicators(standard settings), Bollinger Bands(standard settings), MACD(5, 34, 5).
Indicator 1 on the COT charts - the net position size of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts - the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.
GBP USD CURRENCY UPDATES...
The GBP/USD pair on a 30-minute timeframe traded quite inconveniently again on Friday, especially for novice traders. The first thing you need to pay attention to is that for most of the last week, the pair's quotes were inside the horizontal channel, limited by the levels of 1.3772 and 1.3833. That is, the width of this side channel was only 60 points and, accordingly, the volatility of the pound/dollar pair was also low in most cases. Traders managed to consolidate the pair below the level of 1.3772 only on Friday. However, there can be no talk of any trend right now. At least in the classical sense of the word "trend". There is no trend line or channel, so signals from the MACD indicator should still be ignored. As for the macroeconomic statistics on Friday, the market ignored US reports on business activity. Likewise, data on retail trade in the UK did not have any impact on the course of trading. Only reports on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors in Britain (the second check in the chart below) provoked a move up by 25 points, as they turned out to be better than forecasted. The markets also reacted to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who hinted that the QE program could begin to wind down as early as November. After that, the US dollar rose by 30 points.
Only two trading signals were generated on Friday, which we will now analyze. All other levels that are not marked with rectangles in the chart above are not relevant, since these levels appeared during Friday itself. Thus, the first buy signal, when the price bounced off the level of 1.3772, could be worked out, but the price was able to go up by only 30 points, which was not enough to trigger the least Take Profit. The deal was closed by Stop Loss, set at breakeven. The next sell signal was formed in the middle of the US trading session, when the price broke the level of 1.3772. In this case, novice traders could sell the pair, but Powell's speech should have started in half an hour, so there was no need to risk it. Nevertheless, those newbies who still opened short positions could earn about 20 points of profit, since trades had to be closed manually in the late afternoon, according to the rules of the intraday trading system. But most traders ended the day with zero profit.
How to trade on Monday:
At this time, the upward trend has been cancelled on the 30-minute timeframe, and volatility is low again. Since there is no trend at this time, we do not advise beginners to follow the signals on the MACD indicator for some time. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3708, 1.3740, 1.3772, 1.3814, 1.3830. We recommend trading on them on Tuesday. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. The only highlight of the day on October 25 will be the US consumer confidence report. However, it is unlikely to have a serious impact on the pair's movement.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
Bitcoin downside was invalidated!
The price of Bitcoin has started increasing again after reaching strong support. Now is traded at 63,482.17 level far above 59,510 yesterday's low. The price action has printed a potential Head & Shoulders pattern, but this formation is far from being confirmed.
Bitcoin is up by 5.31% in the last 24 hours and by 2.56% in the last 7-days. As you already know, BTC/USD was into a temporary correction after reaching a fresh all-time high of 67,016.50. The correction seems over after the price action failed to take out strong dynamic support.
BTC/USD Bullish Momentum!
Bitcoin has found strong support right on the first warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork and now it has jumped above the 250% line and above the weekly pivot (62,308.04).
The 59,953.74 static support stopped the corrective phase. The bullish engulfing printed at the confluence area formed at the intersection between the 59,953.74 with the warning line (wl1) signaled that the downside movement could be over. Actually, today's breakout above 61,450 immediate high signaled a strong growth.
Stabilizing, consolidation, above the weekly pivot point (62,308.04) may signal more gains. the second warning line (wl2), the 64,895 level, and the uptrend line are seen as near-term resistance levels, upside obstacles.
The rate could be attracted by the confluence area formed at the intersection between these obstacles. Taking out these resistance levels indicates potential growth towards fresh new highs.
A larger correction could be activated only by a valid breakdown below 59,953.74.
Crude oil forecast......
On Monday, oil futures were strong as prices fell sharply from the highest level since the end of the session, as traders anticipated global energy demand and supply positions. At the start of the session, prices rose, and strong global supply and rising oil demand in many parts of the world pushed the US oil contract to its highest level in many years. However, prices recovered after the session and the most active futures for crude oil - West Texas Intermediate Crude for December - closed at 83 83.76 a barrel on Friday. WTI futures hit a high of 85 85.41 a barrel on the first day, the highest level in almost seven years. Brent oil futures hit a three-year high, but then rose. Despite tight supplies, energy demand has increased in many countries since the end of the corona virus. Oil has also gained support as the OPEC + alliance is based on the current agreement to gradually increase oil production. Last week, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a decline in crude oil inventories last week, and Cushing Hub stocks pushed crude oil prices to a three-year low. In addition, many countries in Asia and Europe are turning to diesel and petrol for electricity, apparently due to shortages of coal and gas, and the demand for oil is slowly increasing.
USD INDEX FORECAST...
The US dollar remained strong against most of its key rivals on Monday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank will stop raising interest rates for now, but the possibility of a tight monetary policy in the near future is raising the dollar. Traders also hinted at upcoming monetary policy meetings between the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. The dollar index, which rose to 93.96, then rose slightly, 0.2 percent from the previous close of 93.83. The dollar rose from 1.1647 to 1.1611 against the euro. The dollar fell slightly against the pound to 1.3766. The yen fell from 113.50 to 113.73 per dollar. The dollar weakened from 0.7466 to 0.7495 against the Australian dollar. The Swiss franc fell from 0.9162 to 0.9198 per dollar. Loni was weak at 1.2386 per dollar after stabilizing at 1.2339 earlier in the day.
USD / JPY challenges up trend support!
The USD / JPY pair fell after failing to stabilize above the 114.50 level and is now challenging the up trend line. As long as the price stays above this line, the upward trend continues. Technically, it can test and re-test before resuming its development. Today's high of 113.90 is seen as an immediate reversal.
On the other hand, Friday's 113.44 low stands as a negative barrier. You should be aware that falling below the trend line and stabilizing can signal that the upward movement is over and that USD / JPY can create a corrective phase, a negative movement.
USD / JPY Trading Result!
Falling below the up trend line and below 113.44 could signal a strong negative move. On the other hand, staying above the uptrend line and moving above today's high of 113.90 could indicate possible growth towards a low of 114.65.
On Tuesday, crude oil futures were set high, amid initial recovery from early losses, declining supply and rising indicators of high oil demand. Oil prices are at an all-time high as many countries move from gas to oil amid power shortages. According to Goldman Sachs, shifting from gas to oil could increase oil demand by 1 million barrels per day. For December, West Texas Intermediate crude rose ڈالر 0.89, or about 1.1 percent, to 84 84.65 a barrel. Brent crude futures are up 44 0.44, or 0.52 percent, at 85 85.61 a barrel. According to a Reuters report, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said that Russia expects OPEC + to increase its production by 400,000 barrels per day at the November 4 meeting, as previously agreed. Novak, who allegedly said, "Demand (for oil) may be lower because there is still uncertainty. We are seeing another epidemic spreading around the world," he added. He expects oil demand to reach pre-epidemic levels by the end of the year. Next year. Traders awaiting weekly oil reports from the US Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) are also awaiting the outcome of talks between Iran and Western powers. The United States has said efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran are at a "critical juncture". The API's weekly oil report is due later today, while the EIA is due to release its inventory data on Wednesday morning.
USD INDEX FORECAST........
Gold prices fell sharply against the dollar on Tuesday and a modest rise in treasury revenues hampered the need for safe havens. Strong data on new home sales and confidence from US consumers boosted the dollar. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. The ECB is expected to take a non-serious position at Thursday's meeting. The Central Bank of Japan and Canada are also scheduled to meet this week. The US Federal Reserve is due to meet next week and is expected to announce plans to reduce its active procurement program. The dollar index, which fell from 93.71 to 93.01 in the Asian session, is now 0.97 percent higher than the previous close of 93.97. Gold futures fell to 1, 1,793.40 an ounce in December. 13.40, or about 0.7%, after reaching a six-week high on Monday. Silver for December delivery fell ڈالر 0.504 to 0.0 0.024.088 an ounce, while copper traded down 0.0 0.0420 to 48 4.4860. The Commerce Department report found new U.S. home sales in September fell 1.4 percent in August to an annual rate of 800,000, after rising 14 percent from a revised rate below 702,000. Reached economists expect new home sales to reach 760,000, up 2.7 percent from 740,000 last month. A separate conference council report said consumer confidence continued to decline in October amid concerns about a Delta variant of the corona virus. The conference board said the consumer confidence index rose to 113.8 in October from 109.8 in September. Economists expect the Consumer Confidence Index to reach 109.0.
Tesla has become a company with a global capital of ٹ 1 trillion, and the corporation appears to be seriously considering resuming the adoption of bitcoins for its electric vehicles.
Elon Musk is confident that the world will soon see the sharp rise in inflationary pressures.
Musk agrees with other global monetary policy figures on the issue, as the Federal Reserve predicts that inflation will continue, and possibly rise.
This may not be a concern for the bitcoin, given its price characteristics. Musk believes that the bitcoin is a real magic bullet from the problems of the Fiat Fund.
Michael Seller, the world's richest man, and Katie Wood, CEO of Arch Invest, agreed that inflationary pressures would last for another two years.
In contrast, Michael Seller and Katie Wood did not agree with Jack Dorsey's tweet that inflation could change everything.
"Inflation is a vector of direction and it clearly describes the movement of many products, services and assets that are not measured by CPI or PCE. It is the best solution for those looking for a real hedge. "Long-term asset and inflation protection," the sailor wrote.
Musk, meanwhile, is seriously considering returning payments in bitcoins.
In a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company left the door open for BTC to accept payment for its products in the near future.
The company bought a total of 1.5 1.5 billion in bitcoins for the full nine months, the document said. In addition, for three months, until March 31, 2021, Tesla accepted bitcoins as payment for electric cars in some areas and under current legislation.
This procedure was discontinued in May 2021. In the future, Tesla may resume the process of accepting bitcoin payments for vehicles.
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